Leganes v Real Betis — Prediction, Odds & Stats
Sunday 16 March 2025 · ESP-La Liga · 2425
La Liga
xG Prediction generated
Shots
10 – 21
On target
4 – 6
Shots in box
7 – 15
xG per shot
0.16 – 0.14
Set-piece xG
0.03 – 0.87
Goals − xG
+0.43 – +0.07
AI prediction
ai-blend-oos No snapshot has been taken for this fixture yet; this is the stored price.Leganes win
26.6%
Draw
26.2%
Real Betis win
47.2%
Probabilities, not certainties. How they are made: the methodology.
Was this pick made in advance?
A model whose name ends
-oos is out of sample: it was fitted only on matches
played before this one, so its pick is a genuine forecast rather than hindsight.
Anything without that suffix was fitted on all available data.What the chances say
Leganes are conceding fewer than expected — 2.8 goals saved beyond what the chances suggest.
LDLDDDWLWW last 10
scored 13
from 13.3 xG
conceded 13
from 15.8 xG
Real Betis are conceding sharply fewer than expected — 5.1 goals saved beyond what the chances suggest.
DWDWLWWWLW last 10
scored 16
from 15.0 xG
conceded 13
from 18.1 xG
Finishing swings far more than chance creation, so a gap this size usually narrows. Over ten matches it is suggestive, not settled — a genuinely elite finisher beats expected goals for years.
What the model said
| Model | Home / Draw / Away | Expected goals | Likeliest score | O2.5 | BTTS | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ai-blend-oos | 1.06–1.50 | 0% | 0% | 0% | Away ✓ |
A model whose name ends -oos was produced by the walk-forward backtest:
it was fitted only on matches played before this one, so the pick is genuinely out of sample.
Reading the xG timeline
Each step up is a shot; the height of the step is how good the chance was. Dots mark goals.
A side whose line climbs steadily created chances all match. A side that scored while its
line stayed flat took a rare chance — that is finishing luck, and it rarely repeats.
Expected goals by minute
Leganes 1.57 xGReal Betis 2.93 xG
Reading the shot map
Each circle is a shot, placed where it was taken. Bigger means a better chance;
filled circles are goals. Clusters near the goal mean a side worked good openings;
lots of small circles far out means shooting from poor positions and hoping.
Hover any circle for the player, minute and chance quality.
Shot map
Leganes attacking right
Real Betis attacking left
Marker size is xG; filled markers are goals.
Every shot
| Min | Team | Player | xG | Situation | Body part | Result | Assisted by |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1' |
 Real Betis |
Abdessamad Ezzalzouli | 0.07 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | — |
| 4' |
Real Betis |
Abdessamad Ezzalzouli | 0.08 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Sergi Altimira |
| 21' |
 Leganes |
Javi Hernández | 0.03 | Open Play | Left Foot | Saved Shot | Yvan Neyou |
| 24' |
Real Betis |
Juan Camilo Hernández | 0.08 | Open Play | — | Blocked Shot | Antony |
| 28' |
Leganes |
Raba | 0.48 | Open Play | Right Foot | Goal | — |
| 33' |
Leganes |
Juan Cruz | 0.06 | Open Play | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | Javi Hernández |
| 33' |
Leganes |
Renato Tapia | 0.02 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Yvan Neyou |
| 34' |
Real Betis |
Isco | 0.23 | Open Play | — | Missed Shot | Antony |
| 35' |
Real Betis |
Juan Camilo Hernández | 0.02 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Romain Perraud |
| 36' |
Real Betis |
Antony | 0.05 | From Corner | Left Foot | Missed Shot | Isco |
| 36' |
Real Betis |
Isco | 0.05 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Youssouf Sabaly |
| 36' |
Real Betis |
Juan Camilo Hernández | 0.05 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Antony |
| 40' |
Real Betis |
Romain Perraud | 0.04 | Open Play | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | Abdessamad Ezzalzouli |
| 41' |
Real Betis |
Sergi Altimira | 0.02 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Abdessamad Ezzalzouli |
| 42' |
Real Betis |
Antony | 0.05 | From Corner | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Isco |
| 43' |
Leganes |
Raba | 0.54 | Open Play | Left Foot | Goal | Juan Cruz |
| 45' |
Real Betis |
Antony | 0.02 | Open Play | Left Foot | Missed Shot | Pablo Fornals |
| 46' |
Real Betis |
Pablo Fornals | 0.08 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Antony |
| 54' |
Real Betis |
Antony | 0.04 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Juan Camilo Hernández |
| 54' |
Real Betis |
Romain Perraud | 0.03 | From Corner | Left Foot | Missed Shot | Antony |
| 63' |
Real Betis |
Isco | 0.74 | Right Foot | Goal | — | |
| 64' |
Real Betis |
Antony | 0.02 | Open Play | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | Aitor Ruibal |
| 68' |
Real Betis |
Jesús Rodriguez | 0.27 | Open Play | Left Foot | Saved Shot | Romain Perraud |
| 76' |
Leganes |
Darko Brasanac | 0.04 | Open Play | — | Blocked Shot | Óscar Rodríguez |
| 76' |
Leganes |
Sergio González | 0.03 | From Corner | — | Saved Shot | Juan Cruz |
| 77' |
Real Betis |
Cédric Bakambu | 0.45 | Open Play | — | Goal | — |
| 77' |
Real Betis |
Marc Bartra | 0.01 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | Natan |
| 81' |
Leganes |
Óscar Rodríguez | 0.02 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Darko Brasanac |
| 81' |
Real Betis |
Juan Camilo Hernández | 0.54 | Open Play | Right Foot | Goal | Isco |
| 86' |
Leganes |
Óscar Rodríguez | 0.01 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Javi Hernández |
| 90' |
Leganes |
Miguel De la Fuente | 0.35 | Open Play | — | Missed Shot | Duk |
Players
Real Betis
| Player | Min | G | A | Sh | KP | xG | xA | xGChain |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Isco AMC | 90 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 3 | 1.02 | 0.63 | 0.95 |
| Antony AMR | 90 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 5 | 0.18 | 0.47 | 1.15 |
| Romain Perraud DL | 90 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 0.07 | 0.30 | 0.37 |
| Sergi Altimira DMC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.02 | 0.08 | 0.84 |
| Adrián GK | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.44 |
| Natan DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.01 | 0.18 |
| Juan Camilo Hernández FW | 87 | 1 | 0 | 4 | 1 | 0.68 | 0.04 | 1.25 |
| Diego Llorente DC | 72 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.55 |
| Abdessamad Ezzalzouli AML | 64 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 0.15 | 0.06 | 0.45 |
| Pablo Fornals DMC | 64 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.08 | 0.02 | 0.57 |
| Youssouf Sabaly DR | 64 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.05 | 0.46 |
| Cédric Bakambu Sub | 26 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.45 | 0.00 | 1.26 |
| Jesús Rodriguez Sub | 26 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.27 | 0.00 | 0.30 |
| Aitor Ruibal Sub | 26 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.02 | 0.02 |
| Marc Bartra Sub | 18 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.01 | 0.00 | 0.01 |
| William Carvalho Sub | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
Leganes
| Player | Min | G | A | Sh | KP | xG | xA | xGChain |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Juan Cruz MR | 90 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0.06 | 0.57 | 0.63 |
| Javi Hernández DL | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0.03 | 0.08 | 0.14 |
| Renato Tapia MC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.02 | 0.00 | 1.00 |
| Marko Dmitrovic GK | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.03 |
| Matija Nastasic DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.03 |
| Valentin Rosier DR | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.03 |
| Darko Brasanac ML | 87 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.04 | 0.02 | 0.15 |
| Sergio González DC | 87 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.03 | 0.00 | 0.09 |
| Seydouba Cissé MC | 87 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.54 |
| Yvan Neyou MC | 77 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0.00 | 0.05 | 0.59 |
| Raba FW | 62 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 1.02 | 0.00 | 1.05 |
| Miguel De la Fuente Sub | 28 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.35 | 0.00 | 0.35 |
| Óscar Rodríguez Sub | 13 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0.03 | 0.04 | 0.07 |
| Munir Sub | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.35 |
| Julián Chicco Sub | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Duk Sub | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.35 | 0.35 |