Lens v Auxerre — Prediction, Odds & Stats
Saturday 17 January 2026 · FRA-Ligue 1 · 2526
Ligue 1
xG Prediction generated
Shots
19 – 5
On target
7 – 0
Shots in box
13 – 5
xG per shot
0.14 – 0.08
Set-piece xG
0.44 – 0.15
Goals − xG
-1.64 – -0.39
AI prediction
ai-blend-oos No snapshot has been taken for this fixture yet; this is the stored price.Lens win
72.7%
Draw
15.7%
Auxerre win
11.6%
Probabilities, not certainties. How they are made: the methodology.
Was this pick made in advance?
A model whose name ends
-oos is out of sample: it was fitted only on matches
played before this one, so its pick is a genuine forecast rather than hindsight.
Anything without that suffix was fitted on all available data.What the chances say
Lens are finishing sharply below their chances — 6.1 goals fewer than expected across 10 matches, despite creating the openings. They are also conceding more than the chances against them merit — 2.2 goals above expected, which tends to correct.
LWDDWLWWLL last 10
scored 18
from 24.1 xG
conceded 16
from 13.8 xG
Auxerre are finishing above their chances — 2.7 goals more than expected across 10 matches, which usually cools off. They are also conceding fewer than expected — 2.5 goals saved beyond what the chances suggest.
DDDLWWWLLL last 10
scored 16
from 13.3 xG
conceded 19
from 21.5 xG
Finishing swings far more than chance creation, so a gap this size usually narrows. Over ten matches it is suggestive, not settled — a genuinely elite finisher beats expected goals for years.
What the model said
| Model | Home / Draw / Away | Expected goals | Likeliest score | O2.5 | BTTS | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ai-blend-oos | 2.19–0.70 | 0% | 0% | 0% | Home ✓ | |
| dc-xg-oos | 2.20–1.19 | 2-1 10% | 66% | 62% | Home ✓ |
A model whose name ends -oos was produced by the walk-forward backtest:
it was fitted only on matches played before this one, so the pick is genuinely out of sample.
Reading the xG timeline
Each step up is a shot; the height of the step is how good the chance was. Dots mark goals.
A side whose line climbs steadily created chances all match. A side that scored while its
line stayed flat took a rare chance — that is finishing luck, and it rarely repeats.
Expected goals by minute
Lens 2.64 xGAuxerre 0.39 xG
Reading the shot map
Each circle is a shot, placed where it was taken. Bigger means a better chance;
filled circles are goals. Clusters near the goal mean a side worked good openings;
lots of small circles far out means shooting from poor positions and hoping.
Hover any circle for the player, minute and chance quality.
Shot map
Lens attacking right
Auxerre attacking left
Marker size is xG; filled markers are goals.
Every shot
| Min | Team | Player | xG | Situation | Body part | Result | Assisted by |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7' |
 Lens |
Saud Abdulhamid | 0.03 | Open Play | Left Foot | Saved Shot | Florian Thauvin |
| 8' |
 Auxerre |
Lassine Sinayoko | 0.11 | From Corner | — | Missed Shot | Kévin Danois |
| 12' |
Auxerre |
Clément Akpa | 0.04 | From Corner | — | Blocked Shot | Kévin Danois |
| 20' |
Lens |
Adrien Thomasson | 0.10 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Wesley Said |
| 25' |
Lens |
Florian Thauvin | 0.03 | Open Play | Left Foot | Missed Shot | Andrija Bulatovic |
| 44' |
Auxerre |
Naouirou Ahamada | 0.11 | Open Play | Left Foot | Missed Shot | Danny Namaso |
| 47' |
Lens |
Matthieu Udol | 0.13 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Adrien Thomasson |
| 47' |
Lens |
Matthieu Udol | 0.14 | Open Play | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | — |
| 47' |
Lens |
Wesley Said | 0.09 | Open Play | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | Matthieu Udol |
| 51' |
Lens |
Andrija Bulatovic | 0.05 | Direct Freekick | Right Foot | Saved Shot | — |
| 54' |
Lens |
Adrien Thomasson | 0.35 | Open Play | Left Foot | Missed Shot | Matthieu Udol |
| 60' |
Lens |
Malang Sarr | 0.02 | Set Piece | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | Mamadou Sangaré |
| 61' |
Auxerre |
Danny Namaso | 0.07 | Open Play | Left Foot | Missed Shot | Lassine Sinayoko |
| 64' |
Lens |
Wesley Said | 0.28 | Open Play | Left Foot | Goal | Malang Sarr |
| 66' |
Auxerre |
Lamine Sy | 0.07 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Oussama El Azzouzi |
| 72' |
Lens |
Florian Thauvin | 0.15 | Open Play | Left Foot | Missed Shot | Mamadou Sangaré |
| 79' |
Lens |
Andrija Bulatovic | 0.09 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | Morgan Guilavogui |
| 81' |
Lens |
Mamadou Sangaré | 0.08 | Open Play | Left Foot | Saved Shot | Morgan Guilavogui |
| 82' |
Lens |
Samson Baidoo | 0.37 | From Corner | — | Missed Shot | Florian Thauvin |
| 88' |
Lens |
Mamadou Sangaré | 0.52 | Open Play | Left Foot | Missed Shot | Matthieu Udol |
| 91' |
Lens |
Ruben Aguilar | 0.02 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Abdallah Sima |
| 92' |
Lens |
Abdallah Sima | 0.07 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Mamadou Sangaré |
| 92' |
Lens |
Andrija Bulatovic | 0.07 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | Mamadou Sangaré |
| 93' |
Lens |
Morgan Guilavogui | 0.06 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | Florian Sotoca |
Players
Lens
| Player | Min | G | A | Sh | KP | xG | xA | xGChain |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Samson Baidoo DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.37 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Matthieu Udol DML | 90 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 3 | 0.27 | 0.96 | 1.28 |
| Andrija Bulatovic MC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 0.20 | 0.03 | 0.42 |
| Malang Sarr DC | 90 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0.02 | 0.28 | 0.39 |
| Robin Risser GK | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.35 |
| Pierre Ganiou DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.09 |
| Florian Thauvin AMC | 87 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 0.18 | 0.39 | 0.75 |
| Wesley Said AMC | 67 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0.37 | 0.10 | 0.97 |
| Saud Abdulhamid DMR | 67 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.03 | 0.00 | 0.56 |
| Adrien Thomasson MC | 58 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0.45 | 0.13 | 0.61 |
| Rayan Fofana FW | 57 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.45 |
| Abdallah Sima Sub | 33 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.07 | 0.02 | 0.45 |
| Mamadou Sangaré Sub | 32 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 4 | 0.60 | 0.31 | 1.17 |
| Morgan Guilavogui Sub | 23 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0.06 | 0.16 | 0.82 |
| Ruben Aguilar Sub | 23 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.02 | 0.00 | 0.17 |
| Florian Sotoca Sub | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.06 | 0.59 |
Auxerre
| Player | Min | G | A | Sh | KP | xG | xA | xGChain |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Lassine Sinayoko FW | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.11 | 0.07 | 0.07 |
| Lamine Sy DR | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.07 | 0.00 | 0.07 |
| Clément Akpa DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.04 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Donovan Léon GK | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.11 |
| Sinaly Diomande DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.11 |
| Fredrik Oppegård DL | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Danny Namaso FW | 89 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.07 | 0.11 | 0.17 |
| Oussama El Azzouzi MC | 89 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.07 | 0.07 |
| Naouirou Ahamada MC | 77 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.11 | 0.00 | 0.17 |
| Kévin Danois MC | 77 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0.00 | 0.15 | 0.00 |
| Marvin Senaya DC | 77 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.11 |
| Josué Casimir Sub | 13 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Romain Faivre Sub | 13 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Rudy Matondo Sub | 13 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Sékou Mara Sub | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Assane Diousse Sub | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |