Lens v Auxerre — Prediction, Odds & Stats
Saturday 22 August 2026 · FRA-Ligue 1 · 2627
Ligue 1
xG Prediction generated
Shots
12 – 10
On target
9 – 4
Shots in box
10 – 5
xG per shot
0.43 – 0.17
Set-piece xG
1.52 – 0.78
Goals − xG
-0.12 – +0.29
AI prediction
ai-blend-oos No snapshot has been taken for this fixture yet; this is the stored price.Lens win
61.3%
Draw
23.0%
Auxerre win
15.8%
Probabilities, not certainties. How they are made: the methodology.
Was this pick made in advance?
A model whose name ends
-oos is out of sample: it was fitted only on matches
played before this one, so its pick is a genuine forecast rather than hindsight.
Anything without that suffix was fitted on all available data.What the chances say
Lens are finishing sharply below their chances — 6.1 goals fewer than expected across 10 matches, despite creating the openings. They are also conceding more than the chances against them merit — 2.2 goals above expected, which tends to correct.
LWDDWLWWLL last 10
scored 18
from 24.1 xG
conceded 16
from 13.8 xG
Auxerre are finishing above their chances — 2.7 goals more than expected across 10 matches, which usually cools off. They are also conceding fewer than expected — 2.5 goals saved beyond what the chances suggest.
DDDLWWWLLL last 10
scored 16
from 13.3 xG
conceded 19
from 21.5 xG
Finishing swings far more than chance creation, so a gap this size usually narrows. Over ten matches it is suggestive, not settled — a genuinely elite finisher beats expected goals for years.
What the model said
| Model | Home / Draw / Away | Expected goals | Likeliest score | O2.5 | BTTS | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ai-blend-oos | 1.99–0.93 | 0% | 0% | 0% | Home ✓ | |
| dc-xg-oos | 2.16–0.96 | 2-0 10% | 60% | 55% | Home ✓ |
A model whose name ends -oos was produced by the walk-forward backtest:
it was fitted only on matches played before this one, so the pick is genuinely out of sample.
Reading the xG timeline
Each step up is a shot; the height of the step is how good the chance was. Dots mark goals.
A side whose line climbs steadily created chances all match. A side that scored while its
line stayed flat took a rare chance — that is finishing luck, and it rarely repeats.
Expected goals by minute
Lens 5.12 xGAuxerre 1.71 xG
Reading the shot map
Each circle is a shot, placed where it was taken. Bigger means a better chance;
filled circles are goals. Clusters near the goal mean a side worked good openings;
lots of small circles far out means shooting from poor positions and hoping.
Hover any circle for the player, minute and chance quality.
Shot map
Lens attacking right
Auxerre attacking left
Marker size is xG; filled markers are goals.
Every shot
| Min | Team | Player | xG | Situation | Body part | Result | Assisted by |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4' |
 Lens |
Florian Thauvin | 0.28 | Open Play | Left Foot | Saved Shot | Franjo Ivanovic |
| 6' |
 Auxerre |
Aristide Zossou | 0.06 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Danny Namaso |
| 11' |
Lens |
Florian Thauvin | 0.76 | Left Foot | Goal | — | |
| 17' |
Auxerre |
Danny Namaso | 0.08 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Lamine Sy |
| 22' |
Auxerre |
Sinaly Diomande | 0.02 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Romain Faivre |
| 28' |
Auxerre |
Kévin Danois | 0.02 | From Corner | Left Foot | Missed Shot | — |
| 29' |
Lens |
Franjo Ivanovic | 0.06 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Abdallah Sima |
| 39' |
Auxerre |
Kévin Danois | 0.01 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | Clément Akpa |
| 40' |
Lens |
Michaël Cuisance | 0.61 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Pierre Ganiou |
| 45' |
Lens |
Franjo Ivanovic | 0.12 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | Matthieu Udol |
| 48' |
Lens |
Franjo Ivanovic | 0.56 | Open Play | Right Foot | Goal | Abdallah Sima |
| 53' |
Lens |
Saud Abdulhamid | 0.61 | Open Play | — | Goal | Florian Thauvin |
| 57' |
Auxerre |
Naouirou Ahamada | 0.02 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | Danny Namaso |
| 60' |
Auxerre |
Danny Namaso | 0.76 | Right Foot | Goal | — | |
| 62' |
Lens |
Maik Nawrocki | 0.04 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | Thorgan Hazard |
| 64' |
Auxerre |
Romain Faivre | 0.05 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | — |
| 65' |
Lens |
Pierre Ganiou | 0.65 | Open Play | Right Foot | Goal | Michal Skóras |
| 68' |
Auxerre |
Lamine Sy | 0.66 | Open Play | Right Foot | Goal | Rayan Mandengue |
| 80' |
Auxerre |
Lamfia Dioubaté | 0.02 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Lasso Coulibaly |
| 87' |
Lens |
Florian Thauvin | 0.76 | Left Foot | Goal | — | |
| 94' |
Lens |
Odsonne Edouard | 0.12 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | Matthieu Udol |
| 97' |
Lens |
Thorgan Hazard | 0.55 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Michal Skóras |
Players
Lens
| Player | Min | G | A | Sh | KP | xG | xA | xGChain |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Florian Thauvin AMC | 90 | 2 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 1.80 | 0.61 | 3.30 |
| Maik Nawrocki DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.04 | 0.00 | 0.72 |
| Yacine Titraoui MC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 1.45 |
| Souleymane Sagnan DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 1.54 |
| Robin Risser GK | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.68 |
| Matthieu Udol DML | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0.00 | 0.24 | 0.56 |
| Pierre Ganiou DC | 81 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.65 | 0.61 | 1.42 |
| Michaël Cuisance MC | 73 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.61 | 0.00 | 2.59 |
| Abdallah Sima FW | 73 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 0.00 | 0.62 | 1.55 |
| Franjo Ivanovic AMC | 64 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 0.74 | 0.28 | 1.62 |
| Saud Abdulhamid DMR | 64 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.61 | 0.00 | 1.33 |
| Thorgan Hazard Sub | 26 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.55 | 0.04 | 1.36 |
| Michal Skóras Sub | 26 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 0.00 | 1.20 | 1.24 |
| Odsonne Edouard Sub | 17 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.12 | 0.00 | 0.12 |
| Amadou Haidara Sub | 17 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.12 |
| Andrija Bulatovic Sub | 9 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.12 |
Auxerre
| Player | Min | G | A | Sh | KP | xG | xA | xGChain |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Lamine Sy DR | 90 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.66 | 0.08 | 0.76 |
| Kévin Danois MC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0.03 | 0.00 | 0.14 |
| Sinaly Diomande DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.02 | 0.00 | 0.12 |
| Mamadou Diop GK | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Clément Akpa DL | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.01 | 0.06 |
| Arthur Piedfort MC | 89 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.06 |
| Danny Namaso FW | 79 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 0.84 | 0.08 | 0.16 |
| Naouirou Ahamada MC | 79 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.02 | 0.00 | 0.12 |
| Aristide Zossou FWL | 69 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.06 | 0.00 | 0.08 |
| Romain Faivre FWR | 69 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.05 | 0.02 | 0.07 |
| Christ Makosso DC | 34 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.02 |
| Lamfia Dioubaté Sub | 21 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.02 | 0.00 | 0.02 |
| Rayan Mandengue Sub | 21 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.66 | 0.66 |
| Elikya Legros Sub | 11 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.02 |
| Lasso Coulibaly Sub | 11 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.02 | 0.02 |
| Josué Casimir Sub | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |