Lens v Brest — Prediction, Odds & Stats
Friday 29 August 2025 · FRA-Ligue 1 · 2526
Ligue 1
xG Prediction generated
Shots
30 – 9
On target
10 – 2
Shots in box
26 – 7
xG per shot
0.15 – 0.11
Set-piece xG
2.71 – 0.07
Goals − xG
-1.49 – +0.04
AI prediction
ai-blend-oos No snapshot has been taken for this fixture yet; this is the stored price.Lens win
52.4%
Draw
24.3%
Brest win
23.3%
Probabilities, not certainties. How they are made: the methodology.
Was this pick made in advance?
A model whose name ends
-oos is out of sample: it was fitted only on matches
played before this one, so its pick is a genuine forecast rather than hindsight.
Anything without that suffix was fitted on all available data.What the chances say
Lens are finishing sharply below their chances — 4.4 goals fewer than expected across 10 matches, despite creating the openings. They are also conceding more than the chances against them merit — 2.1 goals above expected, which tends to correct.
WLWDDWLWWL last 10
scored 23
from 27.4 xG
conceded 16
from 13.9 xG
Brest are finishing below their chances — 2.9 goals fewer than expected across 10 matches, despite creating the openings. They are also conceding sharply more than the chances against them merit — 4.6 goals above expected, which tends to correct.
LLDDLLLDDD last 10
scored 13
from 15.9 xG
conceded 23
from 18.4 xG
Finishing swings far more than chance creation, so a gap this size usually narrows. Over ten matches it is suggestive, not settled — a genuinely elite finisher beats expected goals for years.
What the model said
| Model | Home / Draw / Away | Expected goals | Likeliest score | O2.5 | BTTS | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ai-blend-oos | 1.84–1.17 | 0% | 0% | 0% | Home ✓ | |
| dc-xg-oos | 2.22–1.17 | 2-1 10% | 66% | 62% | Home ✓ |
A model whose name ends -oos was produced by the walk-forward backtest:
it was fitted only on matches played before this one, so the pick is genuinely out of sample.
Reading the xG timeline
Each step up is a shot; the height of the step is how good the chance was. Dots mark goals.
A side whose line climbs steadily created chances all match. A side that scored while its
line stayed flat took a rare chance — that is finishing luck, and it rarely repeats.
Expected goals by minute
Lens 4.49 xGBrest 0.96 xG
Reading the shot map
Each circle is a shot, placed where it was taken. Bigger means a better chance;
filled circles are goals. Clusters near the goal mean a side worked good openings;
lots of small circles far out means shooting from poor positions and hoping.
Hover any circle for the player, minute and chance quality.
Shot map
Lens attacking right
Brest attacking left
Marker size is xG; filled markers are goals.
Every shot
| Min | Team | Player | xG | Situation | Body part | Result | Assisted by |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4' |
 Lens |
Malang Sarr | 0.12 | From Corner | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | — |
| 4' |
Lens |
Malang Sarr | 0.14 | From Corner | Left Foot | Saved Shot | — |
| 4' |
Lens |
Matthieu Udol | 0.10 | From Corner | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | — |
| 4' |
Lens |
Matthieu Udol | 0.05 | From Corner | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | Rayan Fofana |
| 12' |
 Brest |
Joris Chotard | 0.02 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | — |
| 14' |
Brest |
Mama Baldé | 0.06 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Hugo Magnetti |
| 22' |
Lens |
Rayan Fofana | 0.07 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Ruben Aguilar |
| 23' |
Brest |
Mama Baldé | 0.42 | Open Play | Left Foot | Goal | Kamory Doumbia |
| 25' |
Brest |
Kamory Doumbia | 0.09 | Open Play | Left Foot | Saved Shot | Bradley Locko |
| 27' |
Lens |
Rayan Fofana | 0.36 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Adrien Thomasson |
| 31' |
Lens |
Deiver Machado | 0.04 | Open Play | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | Adrien Thomasson |
| 32' |
Lens |
Adrien Thomasson | 0.10 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | — |
| 37' |
Lens |
Deiver Machado | 0.07 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Florian Thauvin |
| 40' |
Lens |
Wesley Said | 0.48 | From Corner | — | Saved Shot | Adrien Thomasson |
| 43' |
Brest |
Kamory Doumbia | 0.10 | Open Play | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | Romain Del Castillo |
| 46' |
Brest |
Julien Le Cardinal | 0.06 | Open Play | — | Missed Shot | Kenny Lala |
| 47' |
Brest |
Ludovic Ajorque | 0.11 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | — |
| 47' |
Lens |
Rayan Fofana | 0.05 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | Florian Thauvin |
| 49' |
Lens |
Florian Thauvin | 0.06 | Direct Freekick | Left Foot | Missed Shot | — |
| 51' |
Lens |
Matthieu Udol | 0.02 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Adrien Thomasson |
| 59' |
Lens |
Florian Thauvin | 0.76 | Left Foot | Goal | — | |
| 61' |
Brest |
Kamory Doumbia | 0.07 | Set Piece | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | — |
| 61' |
Lens |
Rayan Fofana | 0.61 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | Wesley Said |
| 62' |
Lens |
Rayan Fofana | 0.30 | From Corner | Right Foot | Missed Shot | — |
| 62' |
Lens |
Samson Baidoo | 0.03 | From Corner | — | Saved Shot | Florian Thauvin |
| 65' |
Lens |
Mamadou Sangaré | 0.09 | From Corner | Left Foot | Saved Shot | — |
| 65' |
Lens |
Samson Baidoo | 0.02 | From Corner | — | Blocked Shot | Adrien Thomasson |
| 66' |
Lens |
Matthieu Udol | 0.02 | From Corner | — | Saved Shot | Adrien Thomasson |
| 76' |
Lens |
Matthieu Udol | 0.02 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | — |
| 76' |
Lens |
Morgan Guilavogui | 0.05 | Open Play | — | Blocked Shot | — |
| 77' |
Lens |
Mamadou Sangaré | 0.02 | From Corner | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | — |
| 77' |
Lens |
Mamadou Sangaré | 0.06 | From Corner | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | — |
| 77' |
Lens |
Morgan Guilavogui | 0.40 | From Corner | Left Foot | Goal | — |
| 81' |
Lens |
Jonathan Gradit | 0.02 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Matthieu Udol |
| 83' |
Lens |
Matthieu Udol | 0.08 | From Corner | — | Missed Shot | Adrien Thomasson |
| 84' |
Lens |
Morgan Guilavogui | 0.15 | Open Play | Left Foot | Missed Shot | Saud Abdulhamid |
| 91' |
Lens |
Adrien Thomasson | 0.14 | Open Play | Left Foot | Goal | Saud Abdulhamid |
| 94' |
Brest |
Justin Bourgault | 0.03 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Ludovic Ajorque |
| 95' |
Lens |
Saud Abdulhamid | 0.08 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | — |
Players
Brest
| Player | Min | G | A | Sh | KP | xG | xA | xGChain |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ludovic Ajorque FW | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.11 | 0.03 | 0.57 |
| Julien Le Cardinal DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.06 | 0.00 | 0.06 |
| Kenny Lala DR | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.06 | 0.12 |
| Michel Diaz DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Hugo Magnetti MC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.06 | 0.21 |
| Joris Chotard MC | 89 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.02 | 0.00 | 0.26 |
| Bradley Locko DL | 89 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.09 | 0.09 |
| Mama Baldé FWL | 78 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0.48 | 0.00 | 0.57 |
| Kamory Doumbia MC | 78 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 0.26 | 0.42 | 0.67 |
| Romain Del Castillo FWR | 62 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.10 | 0.25 |
| Radoslaw Majecki GK | 58 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Grégoire Coudert Sub | 28 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.03 |
| Justin Bourgault Sub | 12 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.03 | 0.00 | 0.03 |
| Hamidou Makalou Sub | 12 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Raphaël Le Guen Sub | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Serigne Diop Sub | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
Lens
| Player | Min | G | A | Sh | KP | xG | xA | xGChain |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wesley Said AMC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.48 | 0.61 | 0.82 |
| Matthieu Udol DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 6 | 1 | 0.29 | 0.02 | 0.69 |
| Malang Sarr DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0.26 | 0.00 | 0.61 |
| Adrien Thomasson MC | 90 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 7 | 0.24 | 1.01 | 0.82 |
| Mamadou Sangaré MC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0.16 | 0.00 | 0.50 |
| Jonathan Gradit DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.02 | 0.00 | 0.57 |
| Robin Risser GK | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 1.12 |
| Florian Thauvin AMC | 79 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 3 | 0.82 | 0.14 | 0.56 |
| Ruben Aguilar DMR | 79 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.07 | 0.44 |
| Rayan Fofana FW | 78 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 1 | 1.40 | 0.05 | 1.09 |
| Deiver Machado DML | 49 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0.11 | 0.00 | 0.60 |
| Samson Baidoo Sub | 41 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0.04 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Morgan Guilavogui Sub | 12 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0.59 | 0.00 | 0.35 |
| Saud Abdulhamid Sub | 11 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0.08 | 0.29 | 0.37 |
| Anthony Bermont Sub | 11 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.29 |
| Florian Sotoca Sub | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |