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Lens v Marseille — Prediction, Odds & Stats

Saturday 23 November 2024 · FRA-Ligue 1 · 2425

Ligue 1 xG

1–3
2.17 – 1.38 xG
Shots
16 – 10
On target
7 – 4
Shots in box
11 – 6
xG per shot
0.15 – 0.14
Set-piece xG
0.41 – 0.14
Goals − xG
-1.40 – +1.62
Reading the xG timeline
Each step up is a shot; the height of the step is how good the chance was. Dots mark goals. A side whose line climbs steadily created chances all match. A side that scored while its line stayed flat took a rare chance — that is finishing luck, and it rarely repeats.

Expected goals by minute

0.00.71.32.02.70'15'30'45'60'75'90'Valentin Rongier 48' — goalLuis Henrique 56' — goalAngelo Fulgini 79' — goalPierre-Emile Højbjerg 88' — goal
Lens 2.40 xGMarseille 1.38 xG
Reading the shot map
Each circle is a shot, placed where it was taken. Bigger means a better chance; filled circles are goals. Clusters near the goal mean a side worked good openings; lots of small circles far out means shooting from poor positions and hoping. Hover any circle for the player, minute and chance quality.

Shot map

Deiver Machado 2' — Missed Shot (0.20 xG, Open Play)Florian Sotoca 6' — Missed Shot (0.35 xG, Open Play)M'Bala Nzola 6' — Saved Shot (0.04 xG, Open Play)David Pereira Da Costa 7' — Blocked Shot (0.02 xG, From Corner)Pierre-Emile Højbjerg 8' — Missed Shot (0.04 xG, Open Play)Florian Sotoca 20' — Saved Shot (0.02 xG, Open Play)Mason Greenwood 20' — Saved Shot (0.02 xG, Open Play)Facundo Medina 25' — Missed Shot (0.26 xG, From Corner)Hamzat Ojediran 34' — Missed Shot (0.03 xG, Open Play)Neal Maupay 39' — Missed Shot (0.09 xG, Open Play)David Pereira Da Costa 41' — Saved Shot (0.29 xG, Open Play)M'Bala Nzola 41' — Saved Shot (0.02 xG, Open Play)M'Bala Nzola 42' — Missed Shot (0.14 xG, Open Play)Valentin Rongier 48' — Goal (0.40 xG, Open Play)Luis Henrique 56' — Goal (0.34 xG, Open Play)M'Bala Nzola 67' — Saved Shot (0.11 xG, From Corner)Mason Greenwood 71' — Blocked Shot (0.04 xG, Open Play)Remy Labeau Lascary 77' — Missed Shot (0.02 xG, Open Play)Angelo Fulgini 79' — Goal (0.45 xG, Open Play)Deiver Machado 79' — Blocked Shot (0.08 xG, Open Play)Deiver Machado 79' — Saved Shot (0.35 xG, Open Play)Jonathan Rowe 83' — Blocked Shot (0.09 xG, Open Play)Jonathan Rowe 84' — Blocked Shot (0.11 xG, Open Play)Pierre-Emile Højbjerg 84' — Blocked Shot (0.10 xG, Open Play)Pierre-Emile Højbjerg 88' — Goal (0.14 xG, Direct Freekick)Deiver Machado 91' — Missed Shot (0.01 xG, Set Piece)
Lens attacking right Marseille attacking left Marker size is xG; filled markers are goals.

Every shot

MinTeamPlayerxG SituationBody partResultAssisted by
2' Lens Deiver Machado 0.20 Open Play Missed Shot Adrien Thomasson
6' Lens Florian Sotoca 0.35 Open Play Right Foot Missed Shot
6' Lens M'Bala Nzola 0.04 Open Play Left Foot Saved Shot Adrien Thomasson
7' Lens David Pereira Da Costa 0.02 From Corner Left Foot Blocked Shot
8' Marseille Pierre-Emile Højbjerg 0.04 Open Play Right Foot Missed Shot
20' Lens Florian Sotoca 0.02 Open Play Right Foot Saved Shot David Pereira Da Costa
20' Marseille Mason Greenwood 0.02 Open Play Left Foot Saved Shot Neal Maupay
25' Lens Facundo Medina 0.26 From Corner Missed Shot Przemyslaw Frankowski
34' Lens Hamzat Ojediran 0.03 Open Play Right Foot Missed Shot Przemyslaw Frankowski
39' Marseille Neal Maupay 0.09 Open Play Right Foot Missed Shot Ulisses García
41' Lens David Pereira Da Costa 0.29 Open Play Right Foot Saved Shot Hamzat Ojediran
41' Lens M'Bala Nzola 0.02 Open Play Left Foot Saved Shot
42' Lens M'Bala Nzola 0.14 Open Play Right Foot Missed Shot Florian Sotoca
48' Marseille Valentin Rongier 0.40 Open Play Right Foot Goal Neal Maupay
56' Marseille Luis Henrique 0.34 Open Play Right Foot Goal Neal Maupay
67' Lens M'Bala Nzola 0.11 From Corner Left Foot Saved Shot
71' Marseille Mason Greenwood 0.04 Open Play Right Foot Blocked Shot Ulisses García
77' Lens Remy Labeau Lascary 0.02 Open Play Left Foot Missed Shot Angelo Fulgini
79' Lens Angelo Fulgini 0.45 Open Play Left Foot Goal
79' Lens Deiver Machado 0.08 Open Play Right Foot Blocked Shot
79' Lens Deiver Machado 0.35 Open Play Right Foot Saved Shot
83' Marseille Jonathan Rowe 0.09 Open Play Right Foot Blocked Shot Pierre-Emile Højbjerg
84' Marseille Jonathan Rowe 0.11 Open Play Right Foot Blocked Shot Adrien Rabiot
84' Marseille Pierre-Emile Højbjerg 0.10 Open Play Right Foot Blocked Shot Jonathan Rowe
88' Marseille Pierre-Emile Højbjerg 0.14 Direct Freekick Right Foot Goal
91' Lens Deiver Machado 0.01 Set Piece Left Foot Missed Shot

Players

Marseille

PlayerMinGA ShKPxGxA xGChain
Luis Henrique DMR 90 1 0 1 0 0.34 0.00 0.34
Pierre-Emile Højbjerg MC 90 1 0 3 1 0.29 0.09 0.79
Neal Maupay FW 90 0 2 1 3 0.09 0.76 0.85
Adrien Rabiot MC 90 0 0 0 1 0.00 0.11 0.17
Amir Murillo DC 90 0 0 0 0 0.00 0.00 0.00
Geoffrey Kondogbia DC 90 0 0 0 0 0.00 0.00 0.14
Gerónimo Rulli GK 90 0 0 0 0 0.00 0.00 0.00
Leonardo Balerdi DC 90 0 0 0 0 0.00 0.00 0.40
Ulisses García DML 90 0 0 0 2 0.00 0.14 0.14
Mason Greenwood FW 82 0 0 2 0 0.06 0.00 0.80
Valentin Rongier MC 79 1 0 1 0 0.40 0.00 0.78
Bilal Nadir Sub 11 0 0 0 0 0.00 0.00 0.11
Jonathan Rowe Sub 8 0 0 2 1 0.20 0.10 0.30
Sepe Elye Wahi Sub 1 0 0 0 0 0.00 0.00 0.00

Lens

PlayerMinGA ShKPxGxA xGChain
Deiver Machado DML 90 0 0 4 0 0.65 0.00 0.65
M'Bala Nzola FW 90 0 0 4 0 0.32 0.00 0.21
Facundo Medina DC 90 0 0 1 0 0.26 0.00 0.00
Przemyslaw Frankowski DMR 90 0 0 0 2 0.00 0.29 0.23
Brice Samba GK 90 0 0 0 0 0.00 0.00 0.00
Kevin Danso DC 90 0 0 0 0 0.00 0.00 0.00
Hamzat Ojediran MC 78 0 0 1 1 0.03 0.29 0.32
Malang Sarr DC 70 0 0 0 0 0.00 0.00 0.03
Florian Sotoca AMC 59 0 0 2 1 0.37 0.14 0.54
David Pereira Da Costa AMC 59 0 0 2 1 0.31 0.02 0.31
Adrien Thomasson MC 59 0 0 0 2 0.00 0.25 0.25
Remy Labeau Lascary Sub 31 0 0 1 0 0.02 0.00 0.02
Neil El Aynaoui Sub 31 0 0 0 0 0.00 0.00 0.00
Andy Diouf Sub 31 0 0 0 0 0.00 0.00 0.00
Anass Zaroury Sub 20 0 0 0 0 0.00 0.00 0.00
Angelo Fulgini Sub 12 1 0 1 1 0.45 0.02 0.46
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Match

What this page is for

One fixture in full. The model's probability for every market it prices, the prices stored against them, the teams expected to feature, and for a match already played, the shot map and the xG timeline.

How to read the shot map

Every shot is placed where it was taken and sized by its chance of being scored. A cluster of small marks from distance and a clean sheet is a side that was busy without ever threatening; two big marks and a defeat is a side that had the better of it and lost anyway. Both happen constantly, and both are invisible in the score.

How to read the xG timeline

The steps are chances as they arrived, so the shape shows who was on top and when. A flat line that jumps once near the end is a smash and grab.

Things to watch

The stored prediction is the one made before the match, kept deliberately so it can be judged afterwards. It is not re-fitted with hindsight.

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