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Lens v Nantes — Prediction, Odds & Stats

Saturday 9 November 2024 · FRA-Ligue 1 · 2425

Ligue 1 xG

3–2
3.75 – 1.50 xG
Shots
15 – 9
On target
3 – 3
Shots in box
13 – 5
xG per shot
0.25 – 0.17
Set-piece xG
0.88 – 0.85
Goals − xG
-0.75 – +0.50
Reading the xG timeline
Each step up is a shot; the height of the step is how good the chance was. Dots mark goals. A side whose line climbs steadily created chances all match. A side that scored while its line stayed flat took a rare chance — that is finishing luck, and it rarely repeats.

Expected goals by minute

0.01.02.13.14.20'15'30'45'60'75'90'Przemyslaw Frankowski 20' — goalMoses Simon 35' — goalNicolas Cozza 70' — goalHamzat Ojediran 85' — goalAdrien Thomasson 89' — goal
Lens 3.75 xGNantes 1.50 xG
Reading the shot map
Each circle is a shot, placed where it was taken. Bigger means a better chance; filled circles are goals. Clusters near the goal mean a side worked good openings; lots of small circles far out means shooting from poor positions and hoping. Hover any circle for the player, minute and chance quality.

Shot map

Adrien Thomasson 1' — Missed Shot (0.29 xG, Open Play)Mostafa Mohamed 2' — Shot On Post (0.10 xG, Open Play)Jean-Charles Castelletto 8' — Missed Shot (0.02 xG, Open Play)Deiver Machado 9' — Blocked Shot (0.02 xG, Open Play)Facundo Medina 10' — Missed Shot (0.06 xG, From Corner)Przemyslaw Frankowski 20' — Goal (0.76 xG, )Facundo Medina 32' — Missed Shot (0.31 xG, Open Play)Moses Simon 35' — Goal (0.76 xG, )David Pereira Da Costa 40' — Blocked Shot (0.05 xG, Open Play)Nicolas Pallois 46' — Missed Shot (0.02 xG, Set Piece)Andy Diouf 54' — Shot On Post (0.08 xG, Open Play)Moses Simon 54' — Saved Shot (0.02 xG, Open Play)Neil El Aynaoui 55' — Missed Shot (0.10 xG, Open Play)Neil El Aynaoui 57' — Missed Shot (0.07 xG, Open Play)Ignatius Ganago 66' — Missed Shot (0.10 xG, Open Play)Nicolas Cozza 70' — Goal (0.39 xG, Open Play)Florian Sotoca 81' — Missed Shot (0.41 xG, Open Play)Hamzat Ojediran 85' — Blocked Shot (0.06 xG, Open Play)Hamzat Ojediran 85' — Goal (0.50 xG, Open Play)Florian Sotoca 86' — Blocked Shot (0.05 xG, From Corner)Bahereba Guirassy 87' — Blocked Shot (0.03 xG, Open Play)Adrien Thomasson 89' — Goal (0.96 xG, Open Play)Florian Sotoca 89' — Blocked Shot (0.03 xG, Open Play)Ignatius Ganago 94' — Missed Shot (0.07 xG, Set Piece)
Lens attacking right Nantes attacking left Marker size is xG; filled markers are goals.

Every shot

MinTeamPlayerxG SituationBody partResultAssisted by
1' Lens Adrien Thomasson 0.29 Open Play Missed Shot Przemyslaw Frankowski
2' Nantes Mostafa Mohamed 0.10 Open Play Left Foot Shot On Post Moses Simon
8' Nantes Jean-Charles Castelletto 0.02 Open Play Left Foot Missed Shot Kelvin Adou
9' Lens Deiver Machado 0.02 Open Play Left Foot Blocked Shot Adrien Thomasson
10' Lens Facundo Medina 0.06 From Corner Missed Shot David Pereira Da Costa
20' Lens Przemyslaw Frankowski 0.76 Right Foot Goal
32' Lens Facundo Medina 0.31 Open Play Left Foot Missed Shot
35' Nantes Moses Simon 0.76 Right Foot Goal
40' Lens David Pereira Da Costa 0.05 Open Play Left Foot Blocked Shot Neil El Aynaoui
46' Nantes Nicolas Pallois 0.02 Set Piece Left Foot Missed Shot Moses Simon
54' Lens Andy Diouf 0.08 Open Play Left Foot Shot On Post David Pereira Da Costa
54' Nantes Moses Simon 0.02 Open Play Right Foot Saved Shot Alban Lafont
55' Lens Neil El Aynaoui 0.10 Open Play Missed Shot Deiver Machado
57' Lens Neil El Aynaoui 0.07 Open Play Missed Shot Deiver Machado
66' Nantes Ignatius Ganago 0.10 Open Play Left Foot Missed Shot Moses Simon
70' Nantes Nicolas Cozza 0.39 Open Play Right Foot Goal Moses Simon
81' Lens Florian Sotoca 0.41 Open Play Left Foot Missed Shot
85' Lens Hamzat Ojediran 0.06 Open Play Right Foot Blocked Shot Adrien Thomasson
85' Lens Hamzat Ojediran 0.50 Open Play Right Foot Goal
86' Lens Florian Sotoca 0.05 From Corner Blocked Shot Adrien Thomasson
87' Nantes Bahereba Guirassy 0.03 Open Play Right Foot Blocked Shot Nicolas Cozza
89' Lens Adrien Thomasson 0.96 Open Play Goal
89' Lens Florian Sotoca 0.03 Open Play Blocked Shot Facundo Medina
94' Nantes Ignatius Ganago 0.07 Set Piece Right Foot Missed Shot Florent Mollet

Players

Lens

PlayerMinGA ShKPxGxA xGChain
Adrien Thomasson MC 90 1 0 2 3 1.25 0.13 1.48
Przemyslaw Frankowski DMR 90 1 0 1 1 0.76 0.29 0.44
Facundo Medina DC 90 0 0 2 1 0.37 0.03 0.56
Deiver Machado DML 90 0 0 1 2 0.02 0.17 0.24
Remy Labeau Lascary FW 90 0 0 0 0 0.00 0.00 0.03
Kevin Danso DC 90 0 0 0 0 0.00 0.00 0.12
Brice Samba GK 90 0 0 0 0 0.00 0.00 0.15
Jonathan Gradit DC 81 0 0 0 0 0.00 0.00 0.07
Neil El Aynaoui MC 74 0 0 2 1 0.17 0.05 0.22
David Pereira Da Costa AMC 74 0 0 1 2 0.05 0.14 0.20
Andy Diouf AMC 68 0 0 1 0 0.08 0.00 0.25
Florian Sotoca Sub 22 0 0 3 0 0.49 0.00 0.44
Hamzat Ojediran Sub 16 1 0 2 0 0.56 0.00 0.59
Anass Zaroury Sub 16 0 0 0 0 0.00 0.00 0.08
Angelo Fulgini Sub 9 0 0 0 0 0.00 0.00 0.03

Nantes

PlayerMinGA ShKPxGxA xGChain
Nicolas Cozza DML 90 1 0 1 1 0.39 0.03 0.50
Jean-Charles Castelletto DC 90 0 0 1 0 0.02 0.00 0.02
Nicolas Pallois DC 90 0 0 1 0 0.02 0.00 0.14
Pedro Chirivella MC 90 0 0 0 0 0.00 0.00 0.12
Kelvin Adou DMR 90 0 0 0 1 0.00 0.02 0.04
Jean-Kevin Duverne DC 90 0 0 0 0 0.00 0.00 0.12
Alban Lafont GK 90 0 0 0 1 0.00 0.02 0.53
Douglas Augusto MC 90 0 0 0 0 0.00 0.00 0.14
Moses Simon FWL 85 1 1 2 4 0.78 0.60 0.60
Mostafa Mohamed FW 71 0 0 1 0 0.10 0.00 0.10
Matthis Abline FWR 71 0 0 0 0 0.00 0.00 0.02
Ignatius Ganago Sub 19 0 0 2 0 0.17 0.00 0.49
Bahereba Guirassy Sub 19 0 0 1 0 0.03 0.00 0.13
Sorba Thomas Sub 5 0 0 0 0 0.00 0.00 0.00
Florent Mollet Sub 1 0 0 0 1 0.00 0.07 0.00
Jean-Philippe Gbamin Sub 1 0 0 0 0 0.00 0.00 0.00
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Match

What this page is for

One fixture in full. The model's probability for every market it prices, the prices stored against them, the teams expected to feature, and for a match already played, the shot map and the xG timeline.

How to read the shot map

Every shot is placed where it was taken and sized by its chance of being scored. A cluster of small marks from distance and a clean sheet is a side that was busy without ever threatening; two big marks and a defeat is a side that had the better of it and lost anyway. Both happen constantly, and both are invisible in the score.

How to read the xG timeline

The steps are chances as they arrived, so the shape shows who was on top and when. A flat line that jumps once near the end is a smash and grab.

Things to watch

The stored prediction is the one made before the match, kept deliberately so it can be judged afterwards. It is not re-fitted with hindsight.

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