Levante v Atletico Madrid — Prediction, Odds & Stats

Sunday 1 November 2026 · ESP-La Liga · 2627

La Liga xG Prediction generated 4 Sep 2026, 02:09

Levante

11:00

Atletico Madrid

AI prediction

ai-blend v1.0 daily Priced 7 Sep, 07:51 · 1,328h before kick-off

Levante win

49.5%

model 46.8%

Draw

21.8%

model 22.4%

Atletico Madrid win

28.7%

model 30.8%

492229

Calibrated: the model's number corrected by how often calls at that confidence have landed, out of sample (413 settled matches in the thinnest band), then normalised. The smaller figure is the raw model output.

Top 5 scorelines

1-1 9.7%
2-1 9.1%
1-2 7.2%
2-2 6.7%
1-0 6.6%

Goals

Over 2.5	64.9%	Under 2.5	35.1%
BTTS yes	65.3%	BTTS no	34.7%
Levante 1+	84.5%	Levante 2+	55.6%
Atletico Madrid 1+	77.2%	Atletico Madrid 2+	43.5%

Expected goals 1.86 – 1.48. Every market above is read off one scoreline distribution.

Footing

AI confidence

86/100

Data quality

90/100

Model agreement

91%

★ Best pick

Over 3 (void on exactly 3)

Over/Under (whole line) · usually 34%

55.5% fair odds 1.80

strong signal · 592 settled matches behind the band

★ Most likely to land

Under 2.5 in 1st half

Over/Under 1HT · usually 90%

83.6% fair odds 1.20

moderate signal · 388 settled matches behind the band

Positive factors

At home Levante average 2.71 xG a match.

Risk factors

No specific risk flags beyond the usual variance of a football match.

Why the model thinks this

The price

Levante have an estimated 49.5% win probability, against 28.7% for Atletico Madrid and 21.8% for the draw. Expected goals from the ensemble are 1.86 for Levante and 1.48 for Atletico Madrid.

Why Levante

At home Levante average 2.71 xG a match.

Why the draw is live

The draw sits at 21.8%. Draws run at 25% in this competition.

Why Atletico Madrid can win

Atletico Madrid carry the stronger rating, 1630 Elo against 1535.

Key players

Levante's leading contributors by expected goal involvements a match: Carlos Espí (0.41), Iván Romero (0.39), Roger Brugué (0.27). Atletico Madrid's leading contributors by expected goal involvements a match: Alexander Sørloth (0.43), Julián Álvarez (0.42), Antoine Griezmann (0.34).

Availability

1 of Levante's top three contributors did not start their last match. 27% of Levante's last eleven are new to the club this window. 3 of Atletico Madrid's top three contributors did not start their last match. 27% of Atletico Madrid's last eleven are new to the club this window.

The matchup, as far as the data reaches

Levante: 43% possession, 12.0 shots a match, 15.4 faced, 0.41 xG a match from set pieces. Atletico Madrid: 55% possession, 14.0 shots a match, 12.6 faced, 0.46 xG a match from set pieces.

Inputs last refreshed: matches 2026-09-07 06:03 · team_stats 2026-09-07 06:05 · availability 2026-09-07 07:51 · prediction 2026-09-04 06:09 ·

Levante are the model's most likely outcome at 49.5%. The likeliest scoreline is 1-1 at 9.7%. Confidence 86/100, data quality 90/100. These are probabilities, not certainties: the less likely outcome happens as often as its number says.

Written from the numbers the model saw, not by a language model; nothing here is a statistic the snapshot does not hold. How predictions work.

Was this pick made in advance?

A model whose name ends -oos is out of sample: it was fitted only on matches played before this one, so its pick is a genuine forecast rather than hindsight. Anything without that suffix was fitted on all available data.

What the chances say

Levante are finishing below their chances — 2.8 goals fewer than expected across 10 matches, despite creating the openings.

DLWWWLLDWD last 10 scored 15 from 17.8 xG conceded 16 from 14.6 xG

Atletico Madrid have scored 16 from 17.5 expected and conceded 15 from 16.0 — both ends in line with the chances, so the recent record is a fair reflection.

WWLWWLWDWL last 10 scored 16 from 17.5 xG conceded 15 from 16.0 xG

Finishing swings far more than chance creation, so a gap this size usually narrows. Over ten matches it is suggestive, not settled — a genuinely elite finisher beats expected goals for years.

What the model said

Model	Home / Draw / Away	Expected goals	Likeliest score	O2.5	BTTS
ai-blend	472231	1.86–1.48	0%	0%	0%
dc-xg	382339	1.60–1.63	1-1 10%	63%	64%

A model whose name ends -oos was produced by the walk-forward backtest: it was fitted only on matches played before this one, so the pick is genuinely out of sample.

Using this section

Every selection the model prices for this fixture, grouped by family — click a heading to open it. Calibrated is the number to read; lift shows how far it sits from what that selection normally does in this league. To compare selections across fixtures instead, use the Radar.

All markets

Every selection below comes from the same scoreline distribution, so they are mutually consistent rather than independently guessed. Calibrated is the model corrected by its own out-of-sample record; lift is how much more likely that is than the selection simply being true in this league anyway.

1X2 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Levante to win	45.8%	47.4%	46.9%	1.01×	2.11
Atletico Madrid to win	32.1%	30.4%	28.1%	1.08×	3.29
Draw	22.1%	24.4%	25.1%	0.97×	4.09

1X2 & GG/NG 6

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Levante & both teams score	28.0%	25.2%	21.7%	1.16×	3.97
Atletico Madrid & both teams score	20.3%	21.9%	13.6%	1.61×	4.57
Draw & both teams score	19.0%	17.9%	20.1%	0.89×	5.58
Levante & not both score	17.8%	17.9%	25.3%	0.71×	5.58
Atletico Madrid & not both score	11.9%	13.3%	14.6%	0.91×	7.55
Draw & not both score	3.1%	4.9%	5.1%	0.95×	20.59

1X2 & Over/Under 18

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Levante & over 1.5	39.8%	34.9%	34.2%	1.02×	2.87
Levante & over 2.5	34.2%	30.9%	28.1%	1.10×	3.24
Atletico Madrid & over 1.5	27.2%	26.0%	21.1%	1.23×	3.84
Levante & under 3.5	24.0%	21.7%	33.1%	0.65×	4.62
Atletico Madrid & over 2.5	23.4%	21.7%	16.6%	1.30×	4.62
Levante & over 3.5	21.8%	21.7%	14.0%	1.55×	4.62
Draw & over 1.5	19.0%	18.0%	20.1%	0.89×	5.56
Atletico Madrid & under 3.5	18.0%	18.0%	21.7%	0.83×	5.56
Atletico Madrid & over 3.5	14.1%	12.9%	6.5%	1.98×	7.77
Draw & under 2.5	12.4%	12.9%	20.0%	0.64×	7.77
Draw & under 3.5	12.4%	12.9%	20.0%	0.64×	7.77
Levante & under 2.5	11.6%	12.9%	19.0%	0.68×	7.77
Draw & over 2.5	9.7%	7.9%	5.2%	1.50×	12.69
Draw & over 3.5	9.7%	7.9%	5.2%	1.50×	12.69
Atletico Madrid & under 2.5	8.7%	7.9%	11.6%	0.68×	12.69
Levante & under 1.5	5.9%	7.9%	12.9%	0.61×	12.70
Atletico Madrid & under 1.5	4.9%	4.8%	7.1%	0.67×	20.93
Draw & under 1.5	3.1%	4.8%	5.1%	0.93×	20.94

1X2 1UP 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Levante (1UP)	64.3%	63.2%	63.2%	1.00×	1.58
Atletico Madrid (1UP)	53.0%	52.7%	47.1%	1.12×	1.90

1X2 2UP 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Levante (2UP)	45.8%	49.7%	48.8%	1.02×	2.01
Atletico Madrid (2UP)	32.1%	30.9%	29.7%	1.04×	3.24

2nd half 1X2 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Levante to win 2nd half	43.2%	41.1%	39.4%	1.04×	2.43
2nd half drawn	30.6%	34.5%	33.0%	1.04×	2.90
Atletico Madrid to win 2nd half	26.2%	26.2%	27.7%	0.95×	3.81

Asian handicap 8

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Atletico Madrid (+2.5)	88.4%	88.5%	90.0%	0.98×	1.13
Atletico Madrid (+1.5)	74.6%	73.7%	79.2%	0.93×	1.36
Levante (+0.5)	67.9%	68.7%	71.9%	0.96×	1.46
Atletico Madrid (+0.5)	54.2%	52.4%	53.1%	0.99×	1.91
Levante (-0.5)	45.8%	47.7%	46.9%	1.02×	2.10
Atletico Madrid (-0.5)	32.1%	31.3%	28.1%	1.11×	3.20
Levante (-1.5)	25.4%	26.3%	20.8%	1.26×	3.81
Levante (-2.5)	11.6%	11.5%	10.0%	1.15×	8.71

Away clean sheet 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Atletico Madrid to concede	85.0%	86.4%	80.4%	1.07×	1.16
Atletico Madrid clean sheet	15.0%	13.6%	19.6%	0.69×	7.35

Away clean sheet 1HT 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Atletico Madrid clean sheet in 1st half	47.1%	50.7%	51.9%	0.98×	1.97
Atletico Madrid to concede in 1st half	52.9%	49.3%	48.1%	1.03×	2.03

Away corners O/U 10

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Atletico Madrid over 2.5 corners	87.3%	85.2%	—	—	1.17
Atletico Madrid over 3.5 corners	76.0%	75.9%	—	—	1.32
Atletico Madrid under 6.5 corners	63.9%	61.8%	—	—	1.62
Atletico Madrid over 4.5 corners	62.5%	61.8%	—	—	1.62
Atletico Madrid under 5.5 corners	51.3%	53.1%	—	—	1.88
Atletico Madrid over 5.5 corners	48.7%	46.9%	—	—	2.13
Atletico Madrid under 4.5 corners	37.5%	38.2%	—	—	2.62
Atletico Madrid over 6.5 corners	36.1%	38.2%	—	—	2.62
Atletico Madrid under 3.5 corners	24.0%	24.1%	—	—	4.16
Atletico Madrid under 2.5 corners	12.7%	14.8%	—	—	6.75

Away goals O/U 8

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Atletico Madrid under 3.5 goals	92.6%	92.3%	97.3%	0.95×	1.08
Atletico Madrid under 2.5 goals	79.2%	76.3%	90.1%	0.85×	1.31
Atletico Madrid over 0.5 goals	79.1%	76.2%	69.7%	1.09×	1.31
Atletico Madrid under 1.5 goals	53.6%	53.7%	68.2%	0.79×	1.86
Atletico Madrid over 1.5 goals	46.4%	46.3%	31.8%	1.45×	2.16
Atletico Madrid under 0.5 goals	20.9%	23.8%	30.3%	0.78×	4.21
Atletico Madrid over 2.5 goals	20.8%	23.8%	9.9%	2.41×	4.21
Atletico Madrid over 3.5 goals	7.4%	7.7%	2.7%	2.79×	13.04

Away goals O/U 1HT 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Atletico Madrid under 1.5 in 1st half	82.9%	83.1%	93.4%	0.89×	1.20
Atletico Madrid over 0.5 in 1st half	52.5%	56.2%	36.5%	1.54×	1.78
Atletico Madrid under 0.5 in 1st half	47.5%	43.8%	63.5%	0.69×	2.28
Atletico Madrid over 1.5 in 1st half	17.1%	16.9%	6.6%	2.55×	5.92

Away no bet 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Levante (away no bet)	67.4%	66.4%	65.2%	1.02×	1.51
Draw (away no bet)	32.6%	33.6%	34.8%	0.97×	2.97

Away Odd/Even 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Atletico Madrid even goals	52.2%	52.8%	54.1%	0.98×	1.89
Atletico Madrid odd goals	47.8%	47.2%	45.9%	1.03×	2.12

Both halves O1.5 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Not both halves over 1.5	74.2%	77.3%	87.0%	0.89×	1.29
Both halves over 1.5 goals	25.8%	22.7%	13.0%	1.74×	4.41

Both halves U1.5 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Not both halves under 1.5	76.8%	72.6%	62.5%	1.16×	1.38
Both halves under 1.5 goals	23.2%	27.4%	37.5%	0.73×	3.65

Consecutive goals 6

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Either team to score 2+ in a row	67.9%	62.2%	52.3%	1.19×	1.61
Levante to score 2+ in a row	45.3%	45.7%	34.3%	1.33×	2.19
Atletico Madrid to score 2+ in a row	34.2%	29.0%	23.5%	1.23×	3.44
Either team to score 3+ in a row	28.3%	25.1%	18.9%	1.33×	3.99
Levante to score 3+ in a row	18.1%	16.4%	13.0%	1.26×	6.12
Atletico Madrid to score 3+ in a row	11.0%	12.1%	6.4%	1.90×	8.24

Corner handicap 12

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Atletico Madrid corners (+3.5)	89.5%	84.5%	—	—	1.18
Atletico Madrid corners (+2.5)	83.9%	79.7%	—	—	1.25
Atletico Madrid corners (+1.5)	76.6%	74.9%	—	—	1.34
Levante corners (+3.5)	72.6%	70.7%	—	—	1.41
Levante corners (+2.5)	63.4%	61.9%	—	—	1.62
Levante corners (+1.5)	53.2%	52.5%	—	—	1.91
Atletico Madrid corners (-1.5)	46.8%	47.5%	—	—	2.10
Atletico Madrid corners (-2.5)	36.6%	38.1%	—	—	2.63
Atletico Madrid corners (-3.5)	27.4%	29.3%	—	—	3.42
Levante corners (-1.5)	23.4%	25.1%	—	—	3.98
Levante corners (-2.5)	16.1%	20.3%	—	—	4.94
Levante corners (-3.5)	10.5%	15.5%	—	—	6.46

Corner range 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
0-8 corners	35.4%	33.7%	—	—	2.97
12+ corners	34.7%	33.2%	—	—	3.01
9-11 corners	29.9%	31.2%	—	—	3.20

Corners O/U 12

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Over 7.5 corners	74.4%	72.6%	—	—	1.38
Under 12.5 corners	73.5%	72.6%	—	—	1.38
Under 11.5 corners	65.3%	67.7%	—	—	1.48
Over 8.5 corners	64.6%	63.4%	—	—	1.58
Under 10.5 corners	55.9%	57.8%	—	—	1.73
Over 9.5 corners	54.2%	53.3%	—	—	1.88
Under 9.5 corners	45.8%	46.7%	—	—	2.14
Over 10.5 corners	44.1%	42.2%	—	—	2.37
Under 8.5 corners	35.4%	36.6%	—	—	2.73
Over 11.5 corners	34.7%	32.3%	—	—	3.09
Over 12.5 corners	26.5%	27.4%	—	—	3.66
Under 7.5 corners	25.6%	27.4%	—	—	3.66

Corners Odd/Even 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Odd number of corners	50.0%	50.2%	—	—	1.99
Even number of corners	50.0%	49.8%	—	—	2.01

Correct score 26

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
1-1	9.3%	7.4%	15.0%	0.50×	13.48
2-1	8.8%	7.4%	9.7%	0.76×	13.48
1-2	7.3%	7.4%	8.4%	0.89×	13.48
2-2	6.9%	7.4%	4.4%	1.70×	13.48
1-0	5.9%	7.4%	12.9%	0.58×	13.48
2-0	5.6%	7.4%	6.2%	1.19×	13.48
3-1	5.6%	7.4%	3.6%	2.05×	13.48
Any other score	6.5%	7.4%	3.0%	2.48×	13.48
0-1	4.9%	1.7%	7.1%	0.24×	58.46
0-0	3.1%	1.7%	5.1%	0.33×	58.47
0-2	3.8%	1.7%	4.6%	0.37×	58.47
0-3	2.0%	1.7%	2.0%	0.86×	58.48
0-4	0.8%	1.7%	0.9%	1.96×	58.49
1-3	3.8%	1.7%	1.9%	0.91×	58.47
1-4	1.5%	1.7%	0.5%	3.42×	58.48
2-3	3.6%	1.7%	2.1%	0.81×	58.47
2-4	1.4%	1.7%	0.5%	3.42×	58.48
3-0	3.6%	1.7%	4.6%	0.37×	58.47
3-2	4.4%	1.7%	3.2%	0.53×	58.46
3-3	2.3%	1.7%	1.0%	1.71×	58.48
3-4	0.9%	1.7%	0.4%	4.57×	58.48
4-0	1.7%	1.7%	1.6%	1.05×	58.48
4-1	2.7%	1.7%	2.0%	0.86×	58.47
4-2	2.1%	1.7%	1.4%	1.25×	58.48
4-3	1.1%	1.7%	0.7%	2.28×	58.48
4-4	0.4%	1.7%	0.1%	13.70×	58.49

DNB half time 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Levante leading at HT (DNB)	50.4%	55.6%	62.3%	0.89×	1.80
Atletico Madrid leading at HT (DNB)	49.6%	44.4%	37.7%	1.18×	2.25

Double chance 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Levante or Atletico Madrid (12)	77.9%	75.6%	74.9%	1.01×	1.32
Levante or draw (1X)	67.9%	69.6%	71.9%	0.97×	1.44
Atletico Madrid or draw (X2)	54.2%	52.6%	53.1%	0.99×	1.90

Double chance 1HT 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Levante or draw at HT	68.7%	66.5%	78.6%	0.85×	1.51
Atletico Madrid or draw at HT	68.1%	66.4%	64.6%	1.03×	1.51
Levante or Atletico Madrid at HT	63.2%	62.1%	56.7%	1.10×	1.61

Double chance 1UP 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Levante or draw (1UP)	67.9%	76.0%	78.2%	0.97×	1.32
Atletico Madrid or draw (1UP)	54.2%	59.4%	60.0%	0.99×	1.68

Double chance 2HT 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Levante or draw in 2nd half	73.8%	73.8%	72.3%	1.02×	1.36
Levante or Atletico Madrid in 2nd half	69.4%	65.5%	67.0%	0.98×	1.53
Atletico Madrid or draw in 2nd half	56.8%	58.9%	60.6%	0.97×	1.70

Draw either half 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
A half drawn	56.1%	58.0%	62.3%	0.93×	1.72
Neither half drawn	43.9%	42.0%	37.7%	1.12×	2.38

Draw no bet 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Levante (DNB)	58.8%	58.3%	62.6%	0.93×	1.72
Atletico Madrid (DNB)	41.2%	41.7%	37.4%	1.11×	2.40

First goal 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Levante to score first	53.1%	53.9%	55.4%	0.97×	1.86
Atletico Madrid to score first	43.8%	41.8%	39.5%	1.06×	2.39
No goal scored	3.1%	4.3%	5.1%	0.83×	23.42

GG/NG 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Both teams to score	67.2%	58.2%	55.2%	1.05×	1.72
Not both teams to score	32.8%	41.8%	44.8%	0.93×	2.39

GG/NG & Over/Under 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Both score & over 2.5	57.9%	47.2%	40.3%	1.17×	2.12
Not both score & under 2.5	23.5%	27.7%	35.5%	0.78×	3.61
Both score & under 2.5	9.3%	8.4%	15.0%	0.56×	11.95
Not both score & over 2.5	9.3%	8.4%	9.5%	0.88×	11.95

GG/NG 2+ 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Not both teams to score 2+	73.8%	80.6%	86.3%	0.93×	1.24
Both teams to score 2+	26.2%	19.4%	13.7%	1.41×	5.15

GG/NG 2nd half 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Not both to score in 2nd half	61.8%	66.0%	71.5%	0.92×	1.52
Both teams to score in 2nd half	38.2%	34.0%	28.5%	1.19×	2.94

GG/NG by half 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Neither half both score	44.6%	50.4%	60.3%	0.83×	1.99
Both score 2nd half only	27.6%	26.5%	23.0%	1.15×	3.77
Both score 1st half only	17.2%	15.6%	11.3%	1.39×	6.40
Both score in both halves	10.6%	10.7%	5.6%	1.90×	9.33

GG/NG half time 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Not both to score by HT	72.2%	79.8%	83.2%	0.96×	1.25
Both teams to score by HT	27.8%	20.2%	16.8%	1.20×	4.95

Goal in both halves 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
A goal in each half	66.8%	66.8%	54.7%	1.22×	1.50
A half without a goal	33.2%	33.2%	45.3%	0.73×	3.01

Goal range 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
2-3 goals	40.5%	42.1%	49.8%	0.85×	2.38
4-6 goals	39.3%	35.1%	23.3%	1.50×	2.85
0-1 goals	14.0%	16.9%	24.8%	0.68×	5.90
7+ goals	6.2%	7.6%	2.2%	3.37×	13.21

Goals away 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Atletico Madrid to score exactly 1	32.7%	33.8%	38.0%	0.89×	2.96
Atletico Madrid to score exactly 2	25.6%	27.4%	22.1%	1.24×	3.65
Atletico Madrid to score exactly 0	20.9%	22.4%	30.3%	0.74×	4.47
Atletico Madrid to score 3+	20.8%	22.4%	9.9%	2.27×	4.47

Goals home 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Levante to score 3+	29.6%	26.5%	19.7%	1.35×	3.77
Levante to score exactly 1	28.4%	26.5%	38.3%	0.69×	3.77
Levante to score exactly 2	27.0%	26.5%	22.6%	1.17×	3.77
Levante to score exactly 0	15.0%	14.3%	19.6%	0.73×	6.97

Half time 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Draw at HT	36.8%	37.9%	43.3%	0.88×	2.64
Levante leading at HT	31.9%	33.6%	35.4%	0.95×	2.98
Atletico Madrid leading at HT	31.3%	33.5%	21.4%	1.57×	2.98

Handicap 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Levante -1: 2	54.2%	52.1%	—	—	1.92
Levante -1: 1	25.4%	26.5%	—	—	3.77
Levante -1: X	20.4%	23.6%	—	—	4.24

Handicap 0:1 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Atletico Madrid (0:1)	54.2%	51.2%	53.1%	0.96×	1.95
Levante (0:1)	25.4%	27.0%	20.8%	1.29×	3.71
Draw (0:1)	20.4%	24.3%	26.2%	0.93×	4.12

Handicap 0:2 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Atletico Madrid (0:2)	74.6%	75.7%	79.2%	0.96×	1.32
Draw (0:2)	13.8%	11.0%	11.0%	1.00×	9.11
Levante (0:2)	11.6%	11.0%	10.0%	1.10×	9.12

Handicap 0:3 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Atletico Madrid (0:3)	88.4%	90.8%	90.0%	1.01×	1.10
Draw (0:3)	7.2%	5.8%	7.1%	0.82×	17.16
Levante (0:3)	4.4%	2.4%	3.0%	0.79×	42.07

Handicap 0:4 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Atletico Madrid (0:4)	95.6%	98.1%	97.0%	1.01×	1.02
Draw (0:4)	3.0%	1.2%	2.4%	0.51×	83.33
Levante (0:4)	1.4%	1.2%	0.7%	1.60×	83.51

Handicap 1:0 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Levante (1:0)	67.9%	69.9%	71.9%	0.97×	1.43
Draw (1:0)	16.8%	17.0%	17.6%	0.97×	5.87
Atletico Madrid (1:0)	15.3%	17.0%	10.6%	1.60×	5.88

Handicap 2:0 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Levante (2:0)	84.7%	84.6%	89.4%	0.95×	1.18
Draw (2:0)	9.4%	6.5%	6.9%	0.94×	15.46
Atletico Madrid (2:0)	5.9%	6.5%	3.9%	1.67×	15.50

Highest scoring half 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
2nd half highest scoring	48.7%	48.2%	51.3%	0.94×	2.08
1st half highest scoring	29.5%	26.5%	26.4%	1.01×	3.77
Halves equal	21.8%	24.1%	22.4%	1.07×	4.15

Home clean sheet 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Levante to concede	79.1%	76.0%	69.7%	1.09×	1.32
Levante clean sheet	20.9%	24.0%	30.3%	0.79×	4.17

Home clean sheet 1HT 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Levante to concede in 1st half	52.5%	56.2%	36.5%	1.54×	1.78
Levante clean sheet in 1st half	47.5%	43.8%	63.5%	0.69×	2.28

Home corners O/U 10

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Levante under 6.5 corners	80.1%	80.9%	—	—	1.24
Levante over 2.5 corners	77.0%	76.6%	—	—	1.31
Levante under 5.5 corners	69.2%	66.7%	—	—	1.50
Levante over 3.5 corners	60.9%	62.3%	—	—	1.61
Levante under 4.5 corners	55.2%	57.5%	—	—	1.74
Levante over 4.5 corners	44.8%	42.5%	—	—	2.35
Levante under 3.5 corners	39.1%	37.7%	—	—	2.65
Levante over 5.5 corners	30.8%	33.3%	—	—	3.00
Levante under 2.5 corners	23.0%	23.4%	—	—	4.27
Levante over 6.5 corners	19.9%	19.1%	—	—	5.25

Home goals O/U 8

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Levante under 3.5 goals	87.5%	87.3%	92.6%	0.94×	1.15
Levante over 0.5 goals	85.0%	87.2%	80.4%	1.09×	1.15
Levante under 2.5 goals	70.4%	74.2%	80.3%	0.92×	1.35
Levante over 1.5 goals	56.6%	58.8%	42.2%	1.39×	1.70
Levante under 1.5 goals	43.4%	41.2%	57.8%	0.71×	2.43
Levante over 2.5 goals	29.6%	25.8%	19.7%	1.31×	3.87
Levante under 0.5 goals	15.0%	12.8%	19.6%	0.65×	7.84
Levante over 3.5 goals	12.5%	12.7%	7.4%	1.73×	7.85

Home goals O/U 1HT 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Levante under 1.5 in 1st half	82.6%	84.3%	86.0%	0.98×	1.19
Levante under 0.5 in 1st half	47.1%	50.8%	51.9%	0.98×	1.97
Levante over 0.5 in 1st half	52.9%	49.2%	48.1%	1.02×	2.03
Levante over 1.5 in 1st half	17.4%	15.7%	14.0%	1.12×	6.35

Home no bet 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Atletico Madrid (home no bet)	59.2%	56.7%	52.8%	1.07×	1.76
Draw (home no bet)	40.8%	43.3%	47.2%	0.92×	2.31

Home Odd/Even 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Levante even goals	51.1%	50.6%	47.4%	1.07×	1.98
Levante odd goals	48.9%	49.4%	52.6%	0.94×	2.03

HT correct score 10

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
HT 0-0	22.4%	24.1%	32.2%	0.75×	4.15
HT 1-0	16.9%	18.7%	22.7%	0.83×	5.34
HT 0-1	16.6%	18.7%	16.3%	1.15×	5.34
HT 1-1	12.5%	10.9%	10.1%	1.08×	9.15
Any other HT score	7.9%	7.1%	4.5%	1.58×	14.04
HT 2-0	6.3%	7.1%	6.3%	1.14×	14.06
HT 0-2	6.2%	7.1%	3.0%	2.37×	14.06
HT 1-2	4.7%	2.3%	1.5%	1.54×	43.27
HT 2-1	4.7%	2.3%	3.3%	0.71×	43.26
HT 2-2	1.8%	2.3%	1.3%	1.84×	43.48

HT/FT 9

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Levante at HT / Levante at FT	25.4%	26.7%	26.5%	1.01×	3.75
Atletico Madrid at HT / Atletico Madrid at FT	20.5%	21.7%	12.8%	1.70×	4.60
Draw at HT / Levante at FT	15.9%	16.7%	18.0%	0.93×	5.97
Draw at HT / Draw at FT	11.3%	12.7%	14.0%	0.90×	7.90
Draw at HT / Atletico Madrid at FT	9.6%	6.0%	11.5%	0.52×	16.60
Atletico Madrid at HT / Draw at FT	6.4%	6.0%	6.1%	0.98×	16.70
Levante at HT / Draw at FT	4.4%	3.5%	5.1%	0.68×	28.79
Atletico Madrid at HT / Levante at FT	4.5%	3.5%	2.8%	1.26×	28.79
Levante at HT / Atletico Madrid at FT	2.0%	3.5%	4.0%	0.86×	28.88

Last goal 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Levante to score last	53.1%	52.0%	55.8%	0.93×	1.92
Atletico Madrid to score last	43.8%	40.1%	39.2%	1.02×	2.49
No goal scored	3.1%	4.3%	5.1%	0.83×	23.42

Lead at any time 9

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Either team to lead by 1 at any time	96.9%	95.7%	94.9%	1.01×	1.05
Levante to lead by 1 at any time	64.3%	61.4%	63.2%	0.97×	1.63
Either team to lead by 2 at any time	56.7%	55.1%	41.6%	1.33×	1.82
Atletico Madrid to lead by 1 at any time	53.0%	50.7%	47.1%	1.08×	1.97
Levante to lead by 2 at any time	34.1%	29.5%	26.5%	1.11×	3.40
Either team to lead by 3 at any time	23.4%	19.6%	16.8%	1.17×	5.09
Atletico Madrid to lead by 2 at any time	23.2%	19.6%	15.4%	1.28×	5.10
Levante to lead by 3 at any time	15.0%	10.5%	12.3%	0.86×	9.50
Atletico Madrid to lead by 3 at any time	8.4%	6.7%	4.6%	1.44×	15.01

Most corners 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Atletico Madrid most corners	57.4%	55.5%	—	—	1.80
Levante most corners	32.4%	34.3%	—	—	2.92
Corners level	10.2%	10.4%	—	—	9.62

Multi goal 15

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
1-5 goals	83.1%	83.5%	89.1%	0.94×	1.20
2-6 goals	79.8%	78.6%	73.0%	1.08×	1.27
2-5 goals	72.3%	72.4%	69.4%	1.04×	1.38
1-4 goals	70.1%	72.4%	81.3%	0.89×	1.38
3-6 goals	61.0%	63.4%	47.6%	1.33×	1.58
2-4 goals	59.3%	59.2%	61.5%	0.96×	1.69
3-5 goals	53.5%	53.2%	43.9%	1.21×	1.88
1-3 goals	51.3%	53.2%	69.5%	0.76×	1.88
2-3 goals	40.5%	43.6%	49.8%	0.87×	2.30
3-4 goals	40.5%	43.6%	36.1%	1.21×	2.30
4-6 goals	39.3%	39.2%	23.3%	1.68×	2.55
4-5 goals	31.8%	35.4%	19.7%	1.79×	2.83
1-2 goals	29.6%	30.3%	45.3%	0.67×	3.31
5-6 goals	20.5%	24.5%	11.6%	2.11×	4.09
7+ goals	6.2%	8.7%	2.2%	3.88×	11.46

Never down 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Levante never behind	43.8%	48.3%	52.9%	0.91×	2.07
Atletico Madrid never behind	32.6%	35.7%	36.8%	0.97×	2.81

Odd/Even 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Odd number of goals	50.0%	50.8%	53.7%	0.95×	1.97
Even number of goals	50.0%	49.2%	46.3%	1.06×	2.03

Odd/Even 1HT 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Even goals in 1st half	52.5%	51.7%	53.6%	0.96×	1.94
Odd goals in 1st half	47.5%	48.3%	46.4%	1.04×	2.07

Odd/Even 2HT 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Even goals in 2nd half	51.0%	52.0%	49.8%	1.04×	1.92
Odd goals in 2nd half	49.0%	48.0%	50.2%	0.96×	2.09

Over/Under 12

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Over 0.5 goals	96.9%	95.5%	94.9%	1.01×	1.05
Over 1.5 goals	86.0%	87.6%	75.2%	1.17×	1.14
Under 5.5 goals	86.3%	87.6%	94.1%	0.93×	1.14
Under 4.5 goals	73.2%	72.5%	86.3%	0.84×	1.38
Over 2.5 goals	67.2%	66.2%	49.7%	1.33×	1.51
Under 3.5 goals	54.5%	52.5%	74.5%	0.70×	1.91
Over 3.5 goals	45.5%	47.5%	25.5%	1.87×	2.11
Under 2.5 goals	32.8%	33.8%	50.3%	0.67×	2.96
Over 4.5 goals	26.8%	27.5%	13.7%	2.00×	3.64
Under 1.5 goals	14.0%	12.4%	24.8%	0.50×	8.09
Over 5.5 goals	13.7%	12.4%	5.9%	2.11×	8.09
Under 0.5 goals	3.1%	4.5%	5.1%	0.88×	22.21

Over/Under (whole line) 10

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Under 6 (void on exactly 6)	93.3%	92.5%	97.7%	0.95×	1.08
Under 5 (void on exactly 5)	84.2%	81.1%	93.6%	0.87×	1.23
Over 2 (void on exactly 2)	82.8%	81.1%	66.7%	1.22×	1.23
Under 4 (void on exactly 4)	67.1%	67.4%	84.4%	0.80×	1.48
Over 3 (void on exactly 3)	58.2%	55.4%	33.6%	1.65×	1.80
Under 3 (void on exactly 3)	41.8%	44.6%	66.4%	0.67×	2.25
Over 4 (void on exactly 4)	32.9%	32.6%	15.6%	2.10×	3.07
Under 2 (void on exactly 2)	17.2%	18.9%	33.3%	0.57×	5.28
Over 5 (void on exactly 5)	15.8%	18.9%	6.4%	2.97×	5.28
Over 6 (void on exactly 6)	6.7%	7.5%	2.3%	3.23×	13.27

Over/Under 1HT 6

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Under 2.5 in 1st half	81.0%	86.2%	89.9%	0.96×	1.16
Over 0.5 in 1st half	77.6%	78.8%	67.8%	1.16×	1.27
Under 1.5 in 1st half	55.9%	62.6%	70.8%	0.88×	1.60
Over 1.5 in 1st half	44.1%	37.4%	29.2%	1.28×	2.67
Under 0.5 in 1st half	22.4%	21.2%	32.2%	0.66×	4.72
Over 2.5 in 1st half	19.0%	13.8%	10.1%	1.37×	7.22

Over/Under 2HT 6

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Over 0.5 in 2nd half	86.0%	85.3%	81.7%	1.04×	1.17
Under 2.5 in 2nd half	68.6%	67.6%	79.7%	0.85×	1.48
Over 1.5 in 2nd half	58.5%	54.9%	46.3%	1.19×	1.82
Under 1.5 in 2nd half	41.5%	45.1%	53.7%	0.84×	2.22
Over 2.5 in 2nd half	31.4%	32.4%	20.3%	1.60×	3.09
Under 0.5 in 2nd half	14.0%	14.7%	18.3%	0.81×	6.79

Score both halves 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Atletico Madrid not to score in both halves	70.6%	73.7%	81.5%	0.90×	1.36
Levante not to score in both halves	63.9%	63.5%	73.6%	0.86×	1.57
Levante to score in both halves	36.1%	36.5%	26.4%	1.38×	2.74
Atletico Madrid to score in both halves	29.4%	26.3%	18.5%	1.42×	3.80

Teams to score 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Both teams score	67.2%	59.6%	55.2%	1.08×	1.68
Only Levante scores	17.8%	16.1%	25.3%	0.63×	6.22
Only Atletico Madrid scores	11.9%	10.9%	14.6%	0.75×	9.15
Neither team scores	3.1%	4.6%	5.1%	0.89×	21.86

Total goals 7

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Exactly 3 goals	21.7%	22.6%	24.3%	0.93×	4.42
Exactly 2 goals	18.8%	17.4%	25.6%	0.68×	5.74
Exactly 4 goals	18.8%	17.4%	11.9%	1.47×	5.74
6 or more goals	13.7%	12.1%	5.9%	2.06×	8.27
Exactly 5 goals	13.0%	12.1%	8.0%	1.51×	8.27
Exactly 1 goals	10.8%	12.1%	19.9%	0.61×	8.28
Exactly 0 goals	3.1%	4.4%	5.1%	0.86×	22.67

Total goals 2nd half 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
2+ goals in 2nd half	58.5%	53.4%	46.3%	1.15×	1.87
1 goal in 2nd half	27.5%	29.8%	35.5%	0.84×	3.36
No goals in 2nd half	14.0%	14.5%	18.3%	0.79×	6.88

Win both halves 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Atletico Madrid not to win both halves	91.8%	93.9%	94.6%	0.99×	1.07
Levante not to win both halves	86.2%	87.8%	88.1%	1.00×	1.14
Levante to win both halves	13.8%	12.2%	11.9%	1.02×	8.23
Atletico Madrid to win both halves	8.2%	6.1%	5.4%	1.13×	16.47

Win either half 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Levante to win either half	61.3%	65.0%	63.0%	1.03×	1.54
Atletico Madrid to win neither half	50.7%	54.9%	56.3%	0.97×	1.82
Atletico Madrid to win either half	49.3%	45.1%	43.7%	1.03×	2.22
Levante to win neither half	38.7%	35.0%	37.0%	0.94×	2.86

Win to nil 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Atletico Madrid not to win to nil	88.2%	88.2%	85.4%	1.03×	1.13
Levante not to win to nil	82.2%	83.0%	74.7%	1.11×	1.21
Levante to win to nil	17.8%	17.0%	25.3%	0.67×	5.89
Atletico Madrid to win to nil	11.9%	11.8%	14.6%	0.81×	8.49

Winning margin 7

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Draw	22.1%	24.1%	25.1%	0.96×	4.14
Levante by 1	20.4%	24.1%	26.2%	0.92×	4.14
Atletico Madrid by 1	16.8%	16.9%	17.6%	0.96×	5.91
Levante by 2	13.8%	11.8%	11.0%	1.07×	8.47
Levante by 3+	11.6%	11.8%	10.0%	1.18×	8.48
Atletico Madrid by 2	9.4%	7.3%	6.9%	1.06×	13.77
Atletico Madrid by 3+	5.9%	7.3%	3.9%	1.87×	13.79