Lille v Angers — Prediction, Odds & Stats
Sunday 2 November 2025 · FRA-Ligue 1 · 2526
Ligue 1
xG Prediction generated
Shots
15 – 6
On target
3 – 1
Shots in box
11 – 1
xG per shot
0.15 – 0.05
Set-piece xG
0.18 – 0.03
Goals − xG
-1.21 – -0.28
AI prediction
ai-blend-oos No snapshot has been taken for this fixture yet; this is the stored price.Lille win
67.9%
Draw
18.1%
Angers win
14.0%
Probabilities, not certainties. How they are made: the methodology.
Was this pick made in advance?
A model whose name ends
-oos is out of sample: it was fitted only on matches
played before this one, so its pick is a genuine forecast rather than hindsight.
Anything without that suffix was fitted on all available data.What the chances say
Lille are conceding sharply fewer than expected — 6.0 goals saved beyond what the chances suggest.
WWDWDWLWDW last 10
scored 15
from 15.0 xG
conceded 5
from 11.0 xG
Angers are finishing sharply below their chances — 4.0 goals fewer than expected across 10 matches, despite creating the openings. They are also conceding fewer than expected — 2.3 goals saved beyond what the chances suggest.
DLDLLDDLWL last 10
scored 9
from 13.0 xG
conceded 16
from 18.3 xG
Finishing swings far more than chance creation, so a gap this size usually narrows. Over ten matches it is suggestive, not settled — a genuinely elite finisher beats expected goals for years.
What the model said
| Model | Home / Draw / Away | Expected goals | Likeliest score | O2.5 | BTTS | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ai-blend-oos | 1.98–0.73 | 0% | 0% | 0% | Home ✓ | |
| dc-xg-oos | 2.39–0.72 | 2-0 13% | 60% | 47% | Home ✓ |
A model whose name ends -oos was produced by the walk-forward backtest:
it was fitted only on matches played before this one, so the pick is genuinely out of sample.
Reading the xG timeline
Each step up is a shot; the height of the step is how good the chance was. Dots mark goals.
A side whose line climbs steadily created chances all match. A side that scored while its
line stayed flat took a rare chance — that is finishing luck, and it rarely repeats.
Expected goals by minute
Lille 2.21 xGAngers 0.28 xG
Reading the shot map
Each circle is a shot, placed where it was taken. Bigger means a better chance;
filled circles are goals. Clusters near the goal mean a side worked good openings;
lots of small circles far out means shooting from poor positions and hoping.
Hover any circle for the player, minute and chance quality.
Shot map
Lille attacking right
Angers attacking left
Marker size is xG; filled markers are goals.
Every shot
| Min | Team | Player | xG | Situation | Body part | Result | Assisted by |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10' |
 Lille |
Benjamin André | 0.06 | From Corner | — | Missed Shot | Hákon Haraldsson |
| 17' |
 Angers |
Jordan Lefort | 0.03 | Direct Freekick | Left Foot | Missed Shot | — |
| 20' |
Angers |
Jordan Lefort | 0.05 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | Amine Sbaï |
| 23' |
Angers |
Sidiki Chérif | 0.04 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Jacques Ekomie |
| 24' |
Lille |
Felix Correia | 0.07 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Thomas Meunier |
| 25' |
Lille |
Ayyoub Bouaddi | 0.11 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | — |
| 27' |
Angers |
Sidiki Chérif | 0.06 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | — |
| 27' |
Lille |
Hákon Haraldsson | 0.03 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Olivier Giroud |
| 29' |
Lille |
Benjamin André | 0.10 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Olivier Giroud |
| 38' |
Angers |
Carlens Arcus | 0.02 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Louis Mouton |
| 46' |
Lille |
Felix Correia | 0.41 | Open Play | Right Foot | Goal | Ayyoub Bouaddi |
| 50' |
Lille |
Felix Correia | 0.36 | Open Play | Right Foot | Shot On Post | Hákon Haraldsson |
| 51' |
Angers |
Louis Mouton | 0.08 | Open Play | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | Jacques Ekomie |
| 53' |
Lille |
Olivier Giroud | 0.40 | Open Play | — | Missed Shot | Thomas Meunier |
| 57' |
Lille |
Hákon Haraldsson | 0.10 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Ayyoub Bouaddi |
| 64' |
Lille |
Benjamin André | 0.08 | From Corner | Right Foot | Missed Shot | — |
| 66' |
Lille |
Felix Correia | 0.02 | From Corner | Right Foot | Missed Shot | — |
| 66' |
Lille |
Felix Correia | 0.02 | From Corner | Left Foot | Missed Shot | — |
| 67' |
Lille |
Olivier Giroud | 0.40 | Open Play | — | Saved Shot | Thomas Meunier |
| 83' |
Lille |
Nabil Bentaleb | 0.02 | Open Play | Left Foot | Missed Shot | Ayyoub Bouaddi |
| 93' |
Lille |
Hamza Igamane | 0.01 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | Ngal'ayel Mukau |
Players
Lille
| Player | Min | G | A | Sh | KP | xG | xA | xGChain |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Benjamin André DMC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0.25 | 0.00 | 0.60 |
| Ayyoub Bouaddi DMC | 90 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 0.11 | 0.53 | 0.27 |
| Aissa Mandi DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.07 |
| Thomas Meunier DR | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0.00 | 0.87 | 1.01 |
| Berke Özer GK | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.50 |
| Calvin Verdonk DL | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.17 |
| Chancel Mbemba DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.47 |
| Felix Correia AML | 89 | 1 | 0 | 5 | 0 | 0.87 | 0.00 | 1.37 |
| Hákon Haraldsson AMC | 83 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 0.14 | 0.43 | 1.00 |
| Matias Fernandez-Pardo AMR | 82 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.30 |
| Olivier Giroud FW | 75 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 0.81 | 0.13 | 1.11 |
| Hamza Igamane Sub | 15 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.01 | 0.00 | 0.01 |
| Osame Sahraoui Sub | 8 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Nabil Bentaleb Sub | 7 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.02 | 0.00 | 0.02 |
| Ngal'ayel Mukau Sub | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.01 | 0.01 |
Angers
| Player | Min | G | A | Sh | KP | xG | xA | xGChain |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jordan Lefort DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0.08 | 0.00 | 0.14 |
| Carlens Arcus DR | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.02 | 0.00 | 0.10 |
| Himad Abdelli DMC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.10 |
| Jacques Ekomie DL | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0.00 | 0.12 | 0.12 |
| Kouakou Herve Koffi GK | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.02 |
| Ousmane Camara DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.10 |
| Louis Mouton AMC | 87 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.08 | 0.02 | 0.10 |
| Haris Belkebla DMC | 87 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.14 |
| Sidiki Chérif FW | 76 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0.10 | 0.00 | 0.17 |
| Amine Sbaï AML | 65 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.05 | 0.14 |
| Lilian Raolisoa AMR | 65 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.08 |
| Djibirin Harouna Sub | 25 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Yassin Belkhdim Sub | 25 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Prosper Peter Sub | 14 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Marius Courcoul Sub | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Lanroy Machine Sub | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |