Lille v Paris Saint Germain — Prediction, Odds & Stats
Sunday 5 October 2025 · FRA-Ligue 1 · 2526
Ligue 1
xG Prediction generated
Shots
9 – 17
On target
3 – 5
Shots in box
8 – 8
xG per shot
0.07 – 0.10
Set-piece xG
0.08 – 0.22
Goals − xG
+0.35 – -0.71
AI prediction
ai-blend-oos No snapshot has been taken for this fixture yet; this is the stored price.Lille win
33.1%
Draw
21.3%
Paris Saint Germain win
45.5%
Probabilities, not certainties. How they are made: the methodology.
Was this pick made in advance?
A model whose name ends
-oos is out of sample: it was fitted only on matches
played before this one, so its pick is a genuine forecast rather than hindsight.
Anything without that suffix was fitted on all available data.What the chances say
Lille are conceding sharply fewer than expected — 6.0 goals saved beyond what the chances suggest.
WWDWDWLWDW last 10
scored 15
from 15.0 xG
conceded 5
from 11.0 xG
Paris Saint Germain are finishing below their chances — 3.8 goals fewer than expected across 10 matches, despite creating the openings. They are also conceding fewer than expected — 2.3 goals saved beyond what the chances suggest.
LWWDWWLDDL last 10
scored 16
from 19.8 xG
conceded 10
from 12.3 xG
Finishing swings far more than chance creation, so a gap this size usually narrows. Over ten matches it is suggestive, not settled — a genuinely elite finisher beats expected goals for years.
What the model said
| Model | Home / Draw / Away | Expected goals | Likeliest score | O2.5 | BTTS | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ai-blend-oos | 1.37–1.65 | 0% | 0% | 0% | Away ✗ | |
| dc-xg-oos | 1.43–2.16 | 1-2 9% | 70% | 67% | Away ✗ |
A model whose name ends -oos was produced by the walk-forward backtest:
it was fitted only on matches played before this one, so the pick is genuinely out of sample.
Reading the xG timeline
Each step up is a shot; the height of the step is how good the chance was. Dots mark goals.
A side whose line climbs steadily created chances all match. A side that scored while its
line stayed flat took a rare chance — that is finishing luck, and it rarely repeats.
Expected goals by minute
Lille 0.65 xGParis Saint Germain 1.71 xG
Reading the shot map
Each circle is a shot, placed where it was taken. Bigger means a better chance;
filled circles are goals. Clusters near the goal mean a side worked good openings;
lots of small circles far out means shooting from poor positions and hoping.
Hover any circle for the player, minute and chance quality.
Shot map
Lille attacking right
Paris Saint Germain attacking left
Marker size is xG; filled markers are goals.
Every shot
| Min | Team | Player | xG | Situation | Body part | Result | Assisted by |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 22' |
 Lille |
Thomas Meunier | 0.10 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Hákon Haraldsson |
| 23' |
Lille |
Olivier Giroud | 0.07 | From Corner | — | Saved Shot | Hákon Haraldsson |
| 29' |
 Paris Saint Germain |
Lucas Hernández | 0.04 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Quentin Ndjantou |
| 31' |
Lille |
Thomas Meunier | 0.12 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Hákon Haraldsson |
| 35' |
Paris Saint Germain |
Senny Mayulu | 0.04 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Gonçalo Ramos |
| 42' |
Lille |
Nabil Bentaleb | 0.01 | Set Piece | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | — |
| 42' |
Paris Saint Germain |
Bradley Barcola | 0.49 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Lee Kang-In |
| 44' |
Paris Saint Germain |
Bradley Barcola | 0.06 | From Corner | — | Saved Shot | Senny Mayulu |
| 45' |
Lille |
Olivier Giroud | 0.11 | Open Play | Left Foot | Missed Shot | Romain Perraud |
| 46' |
Lille |
Nabil Bentaleb | 0.08 | Open Play | Left Foot | Saved Shot | Olivier Giroud |
| 47' |
Paris Saint Germain |
Lee Kang-In | 0.02 | Open Play | Left Foot | Saved Shot | Lucas Hernández |
| 48' |
Paris Saint Germain |
Bradley Barcola | 0.04 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Lee Kang-In |
| 51' |
Paris Saint Germain |
Lucas Hernández | 0.01 | Open Play | Left Foot | Missed Shot | — |
| 55' |
Paris Saint Germain |
Bradley Barcola | 0.06 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | Lee Kang-In |
| 55' |
Paris Saint Germain |
Bradley Barcola | 0.06 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Lee Kang-In |
| 55' |
Paris Saint Germain |
Lee Kang-In | 0.02 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Warren Zaïre-Emery |
| 61' |
Paris Saint Germain |
Warren Zaïre-Emery | 0.04 | Open Play | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | Lee Kang-In |
| 65' |
Paris Saint Germain |
Nuno Mendes | 0.05 | Direct Freekick | Left Foot | Goal | — |
| 74' |
Lille |
Matias Fernandez-Pardo | 0.03 | Open Play | Left Foot | Missed Shot | Benjamin André |
| 77' |
Paris Saint Germain |
Lee Kang-In | 0.03 | Open Play | Left Foot | Missed Shot | Warren Zaïre-Emery |
| 79' |
Paris Saint Germain |
Lee Kang-In | 0.17 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | Quentin Ndjantou |
| 80' |
Paris Saint Germain |
Gonçalo Ramos | 0.12 | From Corner | — | Missed Shot | Nuno Mendes |
| 82' |
Paris Saint Germain |
Achraf Hakimi | 0.45 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Nuno Mendes |
| 84' |
Lille |
Ethan Mbappé | 0.05 | Open Play | Left Foot | Goal | Hamza Igamane |
| 90' |
Lille |
Ethan Mbappé | 0.09 | Open Play | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | Tiago Santos |
| 94' |
Paris Saint Germain |
Gonçalo Ramos | 0.01 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | — |
Players
Paris Saint Germain
| Player | Min | G | A | Sh | KP | xG | xA | xGChain |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Lee Kang-In MC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 5 | 0.24 | 0.68 | 0.97 |
| Gonçalo Ramos FW | 90 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0.13 | 0.04 | 0.08 |
| Warren Zaïre-Emery DR | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0.04 | 0.05 | 0.58 |
| William Pacho DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.49 |
| Beraldo DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.52 |
| Lucas Chevalier GK | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.45 |
| Quentin Ndjantou MC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0.00 | 0.21 | 0.37 |
| Lucas Hernández DL | 69 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0.05 | 0.02 | 0.11 |
| Bradley Barcola FWL | 60 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 0 | 0.70 | 0.00 | 0.67 |
| Senny Mayulu MC | 60 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.04 | 0.06 | 0.17 |
| Ibrahim Mbaye FWR | 60 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.13 |
| Achraf Hakimi Sub | 30 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.45 | 0.00 | 0.49 |
| Nuno Mendes Sub | 30 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0.05 | 0.57 | 0.49 |
| Vitinha Sub | 30 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.06 |
| Illia Zabarnyi Sub | 21 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.45 |
Lille
| Player | Min | G | A | Sh | KP | xG | xA | xGChain |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aissa Mandi DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.31 |
| Romain Perraud DL | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.11 | 0.28 |
| Ayyoub Bouaddi MC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Nathan Ngoy DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.19 |
| Benjamin André MC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.03 | 0.35 |
| Berke Özer GK | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Matias Fernandez-Pardo FWL | 82 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.03 | 0.00 | 0.34 |
| Thomas Meunier DR | 77 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0.21 | 0.00 | 0.32 |
| Olivier Giroud FW | 77 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0.18 | 0.08 | 0.31 |
| Nabil Bentaleb MC | 67 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0.09 | 0.00 | 0.08 |
| Hákon Haraldsson FWR | 67 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0.00 | 0.28 | 0.29 |
| Felix Correia Sub | 23 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.17 |
| Osame Sahraoui Sub | 23 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Hamza Igamane Sub | 13 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.05 | 0.14 |
| Tiago Santos Sub | 13 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.09 | 0.09 |
| Ethan Mbappé Sub | 8 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0.14 | 0.00 | 0.14 |