Lille v Paris Saint Germain — Prediction, Odds & Stats
Friday 28 August 2026 · FRA-Ligue 1 · 2627
Ligue 1
xG Prediction generated
Shots
9 – 18
On target
4 – 4
Shots in box
5 – 7
xG per shot
0.13 – 0.10
Set-piece xG
0.00 – 0.55
Goals − xG
+0.84 – +0.22
AI prediction
ai-blend-oos No snapshot has been taken for this fixture yet; this is the stored price.Lille win
26.2%
Draw
28.3%
Paris Saint Germain win
45.5%
Probabilities, not certainties. How they are made: the methodology.
Was this pick made in advance?
A model whose name ends
-oos is out of sample: it was fitted only on matches
played before this one, so its pick is a genuine forecast rather than hindsight.
Anything without that suffix was fitted on all available data.What the chances say
Lille are conceding sharply fewer than expected — 6.0 goals saved beyond what the chances suggest.
WWDWDWLWDW last 10
scored 15
from 15.0 xG
conceded 5
from 11.0 xG
Paris Saint Germain are finishing below their chances — 3.8 goals fewer than expected across 10 matches, despite creating the openings. They are also conceding fewer than expected — 2.3 goals saved beyond what the chances suggest.
LWWDWWLDDL last 10
scored 16
from 19.8 xG
conceded 10
from 12.3 xG
Finishing swings far more than chance creation, so a gap this size usually narrows. Over ten matches it is suggestive, not settled — a genuinely elite finisher beats expected goals for years.
What the model said
| Model | Home / Draw / Away | Expected goals | Likeliest score | O2.5 | BTTS | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ai-blend-oos | 1.08–1.49 | 0% | 0% | 0% | Away ✗ | |
| dc-xg-oos | 1.17–1.80 | 1-1 11% | 57% | 58% | Away ✗ |
A model whose name ends -oos was produced by the walk-forward backtest:
it was fitted only on matches played before this one, so the pick is genuinely out of sample.
Reading the xG timeline
Each step up is a shot; the height of the step is how good the chance was. Dots mark goals.
A side whose line climbs steadily created chances all match. A side that scored while its
line stayed flat took a rare chance — that is finishing luck, and it rarely repeats.
Expected goals by minute
Lille 1.16 xGParis Saint Germain 1.78 xG
Reading the shot map
Each circle is a shot, placed where it was taken. Bigger means a better chance;
filled circles are goals. Clusters near the goal mean a side worked good openings;
lots of small circles far out means shooting from poor positions and hoping.
Hover any circle for the player, minute and chance quality.
Shot map
Lille attacking right
Paris Saint Germain attacking left
Marker size is xG; filled markers are goals.
Every shot
| Min | Team | Player | xG | Situation | Body part | Result | Assisted by |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4' |
 Paris Saint Germain |
Achraf Hakimi | 0.03 | Open Play | Left Foot | Shot On Post | — |
| 6' |
 Lille |
Olivier Giroud | 0.36 | Open Play | Left Foot | Saved Shot | Ethan Mbappé |
| 9' |
Paris Saint Germain |
Désiré Doué | 0.02 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Fabián |
| 11' |
Lille |
Ethan Mbappé | 0.04 | Open Play | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | Benjamin André |
| 17' |
Lille |
Ethan Mbappé | 0.06 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | Tiago Santos |
| 18' |
Paris Saint Germain |
Ferrán Torres | 0.09 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Achraf Hakimi |
| 19' |
Lille |
Felix Correia | 0.04 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | — |
| 20' |
Lille |
Hákon Haraldsson | 0.07 | Open Play | Right Foot | Goal | Olivier Giroud |
| 26' |
Paris Saint Germain |
Fabián | 0.08 | Open Play | Left Foot | Saved Shot | Désiré Doué |
| 30' |
Paris Saint Germain |
Vitinha | 0.01 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | — |
| 32' |
Paris Saint Germain |
Ferrán Torres | 0.29 | Open Play | — | Missed Shot | Maghnes Akliouche |
| 40' |
Lille |
Hákon Haraldsson | 0.10 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Ethan Mbappé |
| 44' |
Paris Saint Germain |
Achraf Hakimi | 0.04 | Direct Freekick | Right Foot | Missed Shot | — |
| 45' |
Lille |
Nabil Bentaleb | 0.02 | Open Play | Left Foot | Missed Shot | Ethan Mbappé |
| 46' |
Paris Saint Germain |
Ferrán Torres | 0.05 | Open Play | — | Missed Shot | Vitinha |
| 53' |
Paris Saint Germain |
Vitinha | 0.04 | Direct Freekick | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | — |
| 56' |
Paris Saint Germain |
Khvicha Kvaratskhelia | 0.03 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Fabián |
| 58' |
Paris Saint Germain |
Khvicha Kvaratskhelia | 0.09 | Direct Freekick | Right Foot | Missed Shot | — |
| 64' |
Paris Saint Germain |
Vitinha | 0.02 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Maghnes Akliouche |
| 66' |
Paris Saint Germain |
Vitinha | 0.01 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Maghnes Akliouche |
| 70' |
Lille |
Olivier Giroud | 0.44 | Open Play | — | Missed Shot | Tiago Santos |
| 76' |
Paris Saint Germain |
Vitinha | 0.02 | From Corner | Right Foot | Saved Shot | — |
| 77' |
Paris Saint Germain |
Lucas Digne | 0.02 | From Corner | Left Foot | Missed Shot | — |
| 83' |
Lille |
Dilane Bakwa | 0.04 | Open Play | Left Foot | Goal | Olivier Giroud |
| 87' |
Paris Saint Germain |
Warren Zaïre-Emery | 0.58 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Dro Fernández |
| 90' |
Paris Saint Germain |
Vitinha | 0.03 | Open Play | Left Foot | Goal | Mika Godts |
| 94' |
Paris Saint Germain |
Marquinhos | 0.35 | From Corner | — | Goal | Vitinha |
Players
Paris Saint Germain
| Player | Min | G | A | Sh | KP | xG | xA | xGChain |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Warren Zaïre-Emery DL | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.58 | 0.00 | 0.89 |
| Marquinhos DC | 90 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.35 | 0.00 | 1.15 |
| Vitinha MC | 90 | 1 | 1 | 6 | 2 | 0.13 | 0.40 | 0.63 |
| Achraf Hakimi DR | 90 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0.07 | 0.09 | 0.61 |
| Matvey Safonov GK | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.68 |
| William Pacho DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.21 |
| Maghnes Akliouche FWR | 80 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0.00 | 0.32 | 0.54 |
| Ferrán Torres FW | 74 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0.42 | 0.00 | 0.42 |
| Fabián MC | 74 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0.08 | 0.05 | 0.20 |
| Beraldo MC | 65 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.24 |
| Désiré Doué FWL | 48 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.02 | 0.08 | 0.15 |
| Khvicha Kvaratskhelia Sub | 42 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0.12 | 0.00 | 0.08 |
| Mika Godts Sub | 25 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 0.00 | 0.03 | 0.62 |
| Lucas Digne Sub | 16 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.02 | 0.00 | 0.03 |
| Senny Mayulu Sub | 16 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.03 |
| Dro Fernández Sub | 10 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.58 | 0.60 |
Lille
| Player | Min | G | A | Sh | KP | xG | xA | xGChain |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Olivier Giroud FW | 90 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 0.80 | 0.11 | 0.93 |
| Nabil Bentaleb DMC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.02 | 0.00 | 0.02 |
| Berke Özer GK | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.80 |
| Alexsandro Ribeiro DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.93 |
| Tiago Santos DR | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0.00 | 0.50 | 0.99 |
| Romain Perraud DL | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.42 |
| Nathan Ngoy DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.93 |
| Hákon Haraldsson AMC | 82 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0.17 | 0.00 | 1.08 |
| Ethan Mbappé AMR | 70 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 3 | 0.09 | 0.48 | 0.57 |
| Felix Correia AML | 63 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.04 | 0.00 | 0.42 |
| Benjamin André DMC | 63 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.04 | 0.04 |
| Ngal'ayel Mukau Sub | 27 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.48 |
| Gaetan Perrin Sub | 27 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.44 |
| Dilane Bakwa Sub | 20 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.04 | 0.00 | 0.48 |
| Calvin Verdonk Sub | 8 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.04 |