Liverpool v Bournemouth — Prediction, Odds & Stats
Saturday 21 September 2024 · ENG-Premier League · 2425
Premier League
xG Prediction generated
Shots
19 – 19
On target
12 – 6
Shots in box
14 – 12
xG per shot
0.13 – 0.08
Set-piece xG
0.03 – 0.66
Goals − xG
+0.56 – -1.49
AI prediction
dc-xg-oos No snapshot has been taken for this fixture yet; this is the stored price.Liverpool win
75.1%
Draw
14.1%
Bournemouth win
10.7%
Probabilities, not certainties. How they are made: the methodology.
Was this pick made in advance?
A model whose name ends
-oos is out of sample: it was fitted only on matches
played before this one, so its pick is a genuine forecast rather than hindsight.
Anything without that suffix was fitted on all available data.What the chances say
Liverpool are finishing above their chances — 2.8 goals more than expected across 10 matches, which usually cools off. They are also conceding fewer than expected — 2.3 goals saved beyond what the chances suggest.
WWWLDLDDDW last 10
scored 19
from 16.2 xG
conceded 15
from 17.3 xG
Bournemouth are conceding sharply fewer than expected — 5.1 goals saved beyond what the chances suggest.
WWDWWDDLDD last 10
scored 16
from 17.6 xG
conceded 11
from 16.1 xG
Finishing swings far more than chance creation, so a gap this size usually narrows. Over ten matches it is suggestive, not settled — a genuinely elite finisher beats expected goals for years.
What the model said
| Model | Home / Draw / Away | Expected goals | Likeliest score | O2.5 | BTTS | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| dc-xg-oos | 2.89–1.05 | 2-1 9% | 75% | 61% | Home ✓ |
A model whose name ends -oos was produced by the walk-forward backtest:
it was fitted only on matches played before this one, so the pick is genuinely out of sample.
Reading the xG timeline
Each step up is a shot; the height of the step is how good the chance was. Dots mark goals.
A side whose line climbs steadily created chances all match. A side that scored while its
line stayed flat took a rare chance — that is finishing luck, and it rarely repeats.
Expected goals by minute
Liverpool 2.44 xGBournemouth 1.49 xG
Reading the shot map
Each circle is a shot, placed where it was taken. Bigger means a better chance;
filled circles are goals. Clusters near the goal mean a side worked good openings;
lots of small circles far out means shooting from poor positions and hoping.
Hover any circle for the player, minute and chance quality.
Shot map
Liverpool attacking right
Bournemouth attacking left
Marker size is xG; filled markers are goals.
Every shot
| Min | Team | Player | xG | Situation | Body part | Result | Assisted by |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3' |
 Bournemouth |
Justin Kluivert | 0.12 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Evanilson |
| 5' |
 Liverpool |
Andrew Robertson | 0.04 | Open Play | Left Foot | Missed Shot | Mohamed Salah |
| 7' |
Liverpool |
Luis Díaz | 0.02 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | Andrew Robertson |
| 11' |
Liverpool |
Dominik Szoboszlai | 0.03 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Mohamed Salah |
| 12' |
Liverpool |
Mohamed Salah | 0.08 | Open Play | Left Foot | Saved Shot | Alexis Mac Allister |
| 14' |
Liverpool |
Darwin Núñez | 0.07 | Open Play | Left Foot | Saved Shot | Mohamed Salah |
| 19' |
Bournemouth |
Antoine Semenyo | 0.36 | Open Play | Left Foot | Saved Shot | Evanilson |
| 21' |
Liverpool |
Luis Díaz | 0.32 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | Andrew Robertson |
| 23' |
Bournemouth |
Milos Kerkez | 0.01 | From Corner | Left Foot | Missed Shot | — |
| 25' |
Liverpool |
Luis Díaz | 0.29 | Open Play | Right Foot | Goal | Ibrahima Konaté |
| 27' |
Liverpool |
Luis Díaz | 0.33 | Open Play | Left Foot | Goal | Trent Alexander-Arnold |
| 29' |
Bournemouth |
Justin Kluivert | 0.05 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | Ryan Christie |
| 30' |
Bournemouth |
Evanilson | 0.02 | Open Play | Left Foot | Missed Shot | Dean Huijsen |
| 31' |
Bournemouth |
Antoine Semenyo | 0.04 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Dean Huijsen |
| 33' |
Bournemouth |
Evanilson | 0.01 | Set Piece | — | Missed Shot | Lewis Cook |
| 36' |
Bournemouth |
Justin Kluivert | 0.02 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Milos Kerkez |
| 36' |
Liverpool |
Darwin Núñez | 0.08 | Open Play | Left Foot | Goal | Mohamed Salah |
| 39' |
Liverpool |
Mohamed Salah | 0.08 | Open Play | Left Foot | Saved Shot | Ryan Gravenberch |
| 49' |
Bournemouth |
Antoine Semenyo | 0.02 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | — |
| 53' |
Bournemouth |
Antoine Semenyo | 0.04 | Open Play | Left Foot | Saved Shot | Marcus Tavernier |
| 55' |
Liverpool |
Ryan Gravenberch | 0.02 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | Luis Díaz |
| 58' |
Liverpool |
Mohamed Salah | 0.13 | Open Play | Left Foot | Saved Shot | Alexis Mac Allister |
| 58' |
Liverpool |
Mohamed Salah | 0.17 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | — |
| 66' |
Liverpool |
Darwin Núñez | 0.14 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Mohamed Salah |
| 72' |
Liverpool |
Federico Chiesa | 0.01 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | Cody Gakpo |
| 75' |
Bournemouth |
Marcus Tavernier | 0.01 | Open Play | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | Luis Sinisterra |
| 76' |
Bournemouth |
Dean Huijsen | 0.07 | From Corner | — | Missed Shot | Milos Kerkez |
| 77' |
Liverpool |
Federico Chiesa | 0.41 | Open Play | Left Foot | Shot On Post | Cody Gakpo |
| 79' |
Bournemouth |
Enes Ünal | 0.05 | Direct Freekick | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | — |
| 79' |
Bournemouth |
Luis Sinisterra | 0.38 | Set Piece | Right Foot | Saved Shot | — |
| 81' |
Bournemouth |
Luis Sinisterra | 0.04 | Open Play | Left Foot | Saved Shot | Marcus Tavernier |
| 82' |
Bournemouth |
Luis Sinisterra | 0.12 | From Corner | — | Shot On Post | Lewis Cook |
| 84' |
Liverpool |
Curtis Jones | 0.12 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Cody Gakpo |
| 87' |
Bournemouth |
Luis Sinisterra | 0.04 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | — |
| 87' |
Liverpool |
Alexis Mac Allister | 0.03 | Set Piece | — | Saved Shot | Trent Alexander-Arnold |
| 88' |
Bournemouth |
Alex Scott | 0.01 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | Luis Sinisterra |
| 92' |
Liverpool |
Cody Gakpo | 0.08 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Mohamed Salah |
| 93' |
Bournemouth |
Alex Scott | 0.06 | Open Play | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | Marcus Tavernier |
Players
Bournemouth
| Player | Min | G | A | Sh | KP | xG | xA | xGChain |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dean Huijsen DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0.07 | 0.06 | 0.11 |
| Marcus Tavernier AML | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 0.01 | 0.14 | 0.18 |
| Milos Kerkez DL | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0.01 | 0.09 | 0.08 |
| Lewis Cook DMC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0.00 | 0.14 | 0.43 |
| Kepa GK | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Illia Zabarnyi DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.09 |
| Evanilson FW | 79 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 0.03 | 0.48 | 0.52 |
| Antoine Semenyo AMR | 73 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 0 | 0.47 | 0.00 | 0.51 |
| Julián Araujo DR | 73 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.19 |
| Ryan Christie DMC | 72 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.05 | 0.05 |
| Justin Kluivert AMC | 49 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0.19 | 0.00 | 0.20 |
| Dango Ouattara Sub | 41 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Alex Scott Sub | 18 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0.07 | 0.00 | 0.07 |
| Luis Sinisterra Sub | 17 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 2 | 0.59 | 0.03 | 0.11 |
| Adam Smith Sub | 17 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.04 |
| Enes Ünal Sub | 11 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.05 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
Liverpool
| Player | Min | G | A | Sh | KP | xG | xA | xGChain |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mohamed Salah AMR | 90 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 6 | 0.46 | 0.43 | 2.07 |
| Andrew Robertson DL | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0.04 | 0.34 | 1.44 |
| Alexis Mac Allister DMC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0.03 | 0.21 | 1.53 |
| Ryan Gravenberch DMC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.02 | 0.08 | 1.85 |
| Trent Alexander-Arnold DR | 90 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 0.00 | 0.36 | 1.34 |
| Ibrahima Konaté DC | 90 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.29 | 2.00 |
| Virgil van Dijk DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 1.56 |
| Caoimhin Kelleher GK | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.58 |
| Luis Díaz AML | 75 | 2 | 0 | 4 | 1 | 0.96 | 0.02 | 1.40 |
| Darwin Núñez FW | 75 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0.29 | 0.00 | 0.29 |
| Dominik Szoboszlai AMC | 64 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.03 | 0.00 | 0.79 |
| Curtis Jones Sub | 26 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.12 | 0.00 | 0.66 |
| Federico Chiesa Sub | 15 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0.42 | 0.00 | 0.62 |
| Cody Gakpo Sub | 15 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 0.08 | 0.54 | 0.62 |