Liverpool v Leeds United — Prediction, Odds & Stats
Thursday 1 January 2026 · ENG-Premier League · 2526
Premier League
xG Prediction generated
Shots
19 – 4
On target
4 – 2
Shots in box
11 – 3
xG per shot
0.09 – 0.04
Set-piece xG
0.27 – 0.03
Goals − xG
-1.70 – -0.16
AI prediction
ai-blend-oos No snapshot has been taken for this fixture yet; this is the stored price.Liverpool win
68.2%
Draw
18.5%
Leeds United win
13.3%
Probabilities, not certainties. How they are made: the methodology.
Was this pick made in advance?
A model whose name ends
-oos is out of sample: it was fitted only on matches
played before this one, so its pick is a genuine forecast rather than hindsight.
Anything without that suffix was fitted on all available data.What the chances say
Liverpool are finishing above their chances — 2.8 goals more than expected across 10 matches, which usually cools off. They are also conceding fewer than expected — 2.3 goals saved beyond what the chances suggest.
WWWLDLDDDW last 10
scored 19
from 16.2 xG
conceded 15
from 17.3 xG
Leeds United are finishing below their chances — 3.3 goals fewer than expected across 10 matches, despite creating the openings. They are also conceding sharply fewer than expected — 5.2 goals saved beyond what the chances suggest.
WWDWDWLWDD last 10
scored 15
from 18.3 xG
conceded 10
from 15.2 xG
Finishing swings far more than chance creation, so a gap this size usually narrows. Over ten matches it is suggestive, not settled — a genuinely elite finisher beats expected goals for years.
What the model said
| Model | Home / Draw / Away | Expected goals | Likeliest score | O2.5 | BTTS | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ai-blend-oos | 2.27–0.90 | 0% | 0% | 0% | Home ✗ | |
| dc-xg-oos | 2.15–1.39 | 2-1 9% | 69% | 66% | Home ✗ |
A model whose name ends -oos was produced by the walk-forward backtest:
it was fitted only on matches played before this one, so the pick is genuinely out of sample.
Reading the xG timeline
Each step up is a shot; the height of the step is how good the chance was. Dots mark goals.
A side whose line climbs steadily created chances all match. A side that scored while its
line stayed flat took a rare chance — that is finishing luck, and it rarely repeats.
Expected goals by minute
Liverpool 1.70 xGLeeds United 0.16 xG
Reading the shot map
Each circle is a shot, placed where it was taken. Bigger means a better chance;
filled circles are goals. Clusters near the goal mean a side worked good openings;
lots of small circles far out means shooting from poor positions and hoping.
Hover any circle for the player, minute and chance quality.
Shot map
Liverpool attacking right
Leeds United attacking left
Marker size is xG; filled markers are goals.
Every shot
| Min | Team | Player | xG | Situation | Body part | Result | Assisted by |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5' |
 Leeds United |
Jaka Bijol | 0.03 | From Corner | — | Saved Shot | Anton Stach |
| 6' |
 Liverpool |
Ryan Gravenberch | 0.02 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | — |
| 9' |
Liverpool |
Florian Wirtz | 0.14 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | — |
| 9' |
Liverpool |
Hugo Ekitike | 0.08 | Open Play | Left Foot | Saved Shot | Curtis Jones |
| 13' |
Liverpool |
Florian Wirtz | 0.14 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Hugo Ekitike |
| 20' |
Liverpool |
Curtis Jones | 0.02 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | Andrew Robertson |
| 31' |
Leeds United |
Ethan Ampadu | 0.01 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | — |
| 32' |
Liverpool |
Hugo Ekitike | 0.71 | Open Play | — | Missed Shot | Jeremie Frimpong |
| 32' |
Liverpool |
Jeremie Frimpong | 0.03 | Open Play | Left Foot | Missed Shot | Andrew Robertson |
| 42' |
Liverpool |
Virgil van Dijk | 0.06 | Set Piece | — | Missed Shot | Dominik Szoboszlai |
| 45' |
Liverpool |
Florian Wirtz | 0.03 | From Corner | Left Foot | Missed Shot | Dominik Szoboszlai |
| 53' |
Liverpool |
Conor Bradley | 0.07 | Open Play | — | Blocked Shot | Curtis Jones |
| 54' |
Liverpool |
Conor Bradley | 0.05 | From Corner | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Florian Wirtz |
| 59' |
Liverpool |
Dominik Szoboszlai | 0.01 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | Florian Wirtz |
| 61' |
Liverpool |
Florian Wirtz | 0.09 | Direct Freekick | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | — |
| 63' |
Liverpool |
Hugo Ekitike | 0.13 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | — |
| 69' |
Liverpool |
Virgil van Dijk | 0.04 | From Corner | — | Missed Shot | Dominik Szoboszlai |
| 73' |
Liverpool |
Hugo Ekitike | 0.02 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Milos Kerkez |
| 74' |
Liverpool |
Cody Gakpo | 0.03 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Milos Kerkez |
| 90' |
Leeds United |
Anton Stach | 0.07 | Open Play | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | — |
| 90' |
Leeds United |
Anton Stach | 0.06 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | — |
| 92' |
Liverpool |
Alexis Mac Allister | 0.01 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Rio Ngumoha |
| 96' |
Liverpool |
Virgil van Dijk | 0.02 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Rio Ngumoha |
Players
Liverpool
| Player | Min | G | A | Sh | KP | xG | xA | xGChain |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Hugo Ekitike FW | 90 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 1 | 0.94 | 0.14 | 1.08 |
| Virgil van Dijk DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0.11 | 0.00 | 0.24 |
| Ryan Gravenberch DMC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.02 | 0.00 | 0.11 |
| Dominik Szoboszlai AMC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 0.01 | 0.13 | 0.23 |
| Ibrahima Konaté DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.21 |
| Alisson GK | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.03 |
| Jeremie Frimpong AMR | 86 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.03 | 0.71 | 0.76 |
| Conor Bradley DR | 81 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0.13 | 0.00 | 0.12 |
| Florian Wirtz AML | 68 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 2 | 0.40 | 0.07 | 0.31 |
| Curtis Jones DMC | 68 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0.02 | 0.16 | 0.17 |
| Andrew Robertson DL | 68 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0.00 | 0.04 | 0.12 |
| Cody Gakpo Sub | 22 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.03 | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| Alexis Mac Allister Sub | 22 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.01 | 0.00 | 0.04 |
| Milos Kerkez Sub | 22 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0.00 | 0.05 | 0.06 |
| Federico Chiesa Sub | 9 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Rio Ngumoha Sub | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0.00 | 0.03 | 0.03 |
Leeds United
| Player | Min | G | A | Sh | KP | xG | xA | xGChain |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Anton Stach MC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0.12 | 0.03 | 0.12 |
| Jaka Bijol DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.03 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Ethan Ampadu MC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.01 | 0.00 | 0.01 |
| Lucas Perri GK | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Gabriel Gudmundsson DML | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Ilia Gruev MC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| James Justin DMR | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Pascal Struijk DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Sebastiaan Bornauw DC | 85 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Lukas Nmecha FW | 72 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Brenden Aaronson FW | 72 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Dominic Calvert-Lewin Sub | 18 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Noah Okafor Sub | 18 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Jayden Bogle Sub | 5 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Ao Tanaka Sub | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |