Liverpool v Tottenham Hotspur — Prediction, Odds & Stats
Sunday 5 May 2024 · ENG-Premier League · 2324
Premier League
xG Prediction generated
Shots
25 – 11
On target
12 – 6
Shots in box
19 – 5
xG per shot
0.15 – 0.11
Set-piece xG
0.05 – 0.19
Goals − xG
+0.28 – +0.83
AI prediction
dc-xg-oos No snapshot has been taken for this fixture yet; this is the stored price.Liverpool win
74.7%
Draw
13.9%
Tottenham Hotspur win
11.4%
Probabilities, not certainties. How they are made: the methodology.
Was this pick made in advance?
A model whose name ends
-oos is out of sample: it was fitted only on matches
played before this one, so its pick is a genuine forecast rather than hindsight.
Anything without that suffix was fitted on all available data.What the chances say
Liverpool are finishing above their chances — 2.8 goals more than expected across 10 matches, which usually cools off. They are also conceding fewer than expected — 2.3 goals saved beyond what the chances suggest.
WWWLDLDDDW last 10
scored 19
from 16.2 xG
conceded 15
from 17.3 xG
Tottenham Hotspur are finishing sharply below their chances — 5.2 goals fewer than expected across 10 matches, despite creating the openings.
LDWWDLWLLD last 10
scored 8
from 13.2 xG
conceded 12
from 13.4 xG
Finishing swings far more than chance creation, so a gap this size usually narrows. Over ten matches it is suggestive, not settled — a genuinely elite finisher beats expected goals for years.
What the model said
| Model | Home / Draw / Away | Expected goals | Likeliest score | O2.5 | BTTS | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| dc-xg-oos | 3.02–1.16 | 3-1 8% | 79% | 65% | Home ✓ |
A model whose name ends -oos was produced by the walk-forward backtest:
it was fitted only on matches played before this one, so the pick is genuinely out of sample.
Reading the xG timeline
Each step up is a shot; the height of the step is how good the chance was. Dots mark goals.
A side whose line climbs steadily created chances all match. A side that scored while its
line stayed flat took a rare chance — that is finishing luck, and it rarely repeats.
Expected goals by minute
Liverpool 3.72 xGTottenham Hotspur 1.17 xG
Reading the shot map
Each circle is a shot, placed where it was taken. Bigger means a better chance;
filled circles are goals. Clusters near the goal mean a side worked good openings;
lots of small circles far out means shooting from poor positions and hoping.
Hover any circle for the player, minute and chance quality.
Shot map
Liverpool attacking right
Tottenham Hotspur attacking left
Marker size is xG; filled markers are goals.
Every shot
| Min | Team | Player | xG | Situation | Body part | Result | Assisted by |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2' |
 Tottenham Hotspur |
Yves Bissouma | 0.02 | Set Piece | Right Foot | Missed Shot | — |
| 7' |
 Liverpool |
Trent Alexander-Arnold | 0.05 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | — |
| 8' |
Liverpool |
Harvey Elliott | 0.09 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | — |
| 8' |
Liverpool |
Mohamed Salah | 0.08 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | Harvey Elliott |
| 15' |
Liverpool |
Mohamed Salah | 0.58 | Open Play | — | Goal | Cody Gakpo |
| 21' |
Liverpool |
Luis Díaz | 0.13 | Open Play | Left Foot | Saved Shot | — |
| 33' |
Liverpool |
Mohamed Salah | 0.14 | Open Play | Left Foot | Missed Shot | — |
| 35' |
Liverpool |
Andrew Robertson | 0.07 | Open Play | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | — |
| 36' |
Liverpool |
Cody Gakpo | 0.03 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | Wataru Endo |
| 40' |
Liverpool |
Luis Díaz | 0.12 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Trent Alexander-Arnold |
| 40' |
Liverpool |
Trent Alexander-Arnold | 0.03 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | — |
| 41' |
Liverpool |
Trent Alexander-Arnold | 0.11 | Open Play | Left Foot | Missed Shot | Alexis Mac Allister |
| 43' |
Liverpool |
Harvey Elliott | 0.10 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | Cody Gakpo |
| 44' |
Liverpool |
Andrew Robertson | 0.88 | Open Play | Right Foot | Goal | — |
| 44' |
Liverpool |
Mohamed Salah | 0.52 | Open Play | Left Foot | Saved Shot | Andrew Robertson |
| 46' |
Liverpool |
Mohamed Salah | 0.13 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | Harvey Elliott |
| 49' |
Liverpool |
Cody Gakpo | 0.05 | Open Play | — | Goal | Harvey Elliott |
| 51' |
Liverpool |
Mohamed Salah | 0.07 | Open Play | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | Harvey Elliott |
| 53' |
Tottenham Hotspur |
Brennan Johnson | 0.26 | Open Play | — | Saved Shot | Pedro Porro |
| 57' |
Tottenham Hotspur |
Pedro Porro | 0.01 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | — |
| 58' |
Liverpool |
Harvey Elliott | 0.03 | Open Play | Left Foot | Goal | Mohamed Salah |
| 61' |
Tottenham Hotspur |
James Maddison | 0.09 | Direct Freekick | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | — |
| 62' |
Tottenham Hotspur |
James Maddison | 0.02 | Set Piece | Left Foot | Saved Shot | Brennan Johnson |
| 65' |
Tottenham Hotspur |
James Maddison | 0.03 | Open Play | Left Foot | Missed Shot | — |
| 71' |
Liverpool |
Harvey Elliott | 0.05 | Open Play | Left Foot | Saved Shot | Luis Díaz |
| 71' |
Tottenham Hotspur |
Richarlison | 0.28 | Open Play | Right Foot | Goal | Brennan Johnson |
| 76' |
Tottenham Hotspur |
Son Heung-Min | 0.33 | Open Play | Right Foot | Goal | Richarlison |
| 79' |
Liverpool |
Ryan Gravenberch | 0.08 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Harvey Elliott |
| 81' |
Liverpool |
Trent Alexander-Arnold | 0.01 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | — |
| 84' |
Tottenham Hotspur |
Giovani Lo Celso | 0.02 | Open Play | Left Foot | Saved Shot | Son Heung-Min |
| 85' |
Liverpool |
Dominik Szoboszlai | 0.09 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Mohamed Salah |
| 86' |
Tottenham Hotspur |
Richarlison | 0.06 | Open Play | Left Foot | Saved Shot | Son Heung-Min |
| 89' |
Liverpool |
Virgil van Dijk | 0.03 | From Corner | — | Missed Shot | Trent Alexander-Arnold |
| 90' |
Tottenham Hotspur |
Son Heung-Min | 0.05 | From Corner | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Giovani Lo Celso |
| 92' |
Liverpool |
Virgil van Dijk | 0.02 | From Corner | — | Blocked Shot | Dominik Szoboszlai |
| 96' |
Liverpool |
Darwin Núñez | 0.25 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | Mohamed Salah |
Players
Tottenham Hotspur
| Player | Min | G | A | Sh | KP | xG | xA | xGChain |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Son Heung-Min FW | 90 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 0.38 | 0.08 | 0.95 |
| Brennan Johnson FWL | 90 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0.26 | 0.31 | 0.54 |
| Yves Bissouma MC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.02 | 0.00 | 0.35 |
| Pedro Porro DR | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.01 | 0.26 | 0.55 |
| Guglielmo Vicario GK | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.54 |
| Cristian Romero DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.55 |
| Micky van de Ven DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Pape Sarr MC | 77 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.54 |
| Emerson DL | 63 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.26 |
| Dejan Kulusevski FWR | 63 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Rodrigo Bentancur MC | 63 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.26 |
| Richarlison Sub | 27 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 0.35 | 0.33 | 0.69 |
| James Maddison Sub | 27 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0.14 | 0.00 | 0.04 |
| Oliver Skipp Sub | 27 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.69 |
| Giovani Lo Celso Sub | 13 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.02 | 0.05 | 0.08 |
Liverpool
| Player | Min | G | A | Sh | KP | xG | xA | xGChain |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mohamed Salah FWR | 90 | 1 | 1 | 6 | 3 | 1.52 | 0.37 | 1.98 |
| Trent Alexander-Arnold DR | 90 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 2 | 0.20 | 0.14 | 1.48 |
| Cody Gakpo FW | 90 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 0.07 | 0.68 | 1.35 |
| Virgil van Dijk DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0.05 | 0.00 | 0.62 |
| Alisson GK | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Jarell Quansah DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.13 |
| Harvey Elliott MC | 85 | 1 | 1 | 4 | 5 | 0.27 | 0.42 | 1.78 |
| Luis Díaz FWL | 77 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0.25 | 0.05 | 0.53 |
| Alexis Mac Allister MC | 77 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.11 | 1.01 |
| Wataru Endo MC | 67 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.03 | 1.33 |
| Andrew Robertson DL | 66 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0.95 | 0.52 | 2.21 |
| Joseph Gomez Sub | 24 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| Stefan Bajcetic Sub | 23 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Darwin Núñez Sub | 13 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.25 | 0.00 | 0.25 |
| Ryan Gravenberch Sub | 13 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.08 | 0.00 | 0.08 |
| Dominik Szoboszlai Sub | 5 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.09 | 0.02 | 0.34 |