Liverpool v West Ham United — Prediction, Odds & Stats
Sunday 13 April 2025 · ENG-Premier League · 2425
Premier League
xG Prediction generated
Shots
16 – 11
On target
6 – 4
Shots in box
11 – 10
xG per shot
0.09 – 0.14
Set-piece xG
0.35 – 0.22
Goals − xG
+0.57 – -0.50
AI prediction
ai-blend-oos No snapshot has been taken for this fixture yet; this is the stored price.Liverpool win
64.3%
Draw
20.4%
West Ham United win
15.4%
Probabilities, not certainties. How they are made: the methodology.
Was this pick made in advance?
A model whose name ends
-oos is out of sample: it was fitted only on matches
played before this one, so its pick is a genuine forecast rather than hindsight.
Anything without that suffix was fitted on all available data.What the chances say
Liverpool are finishing above their chances — 2.8 goals more than expected across 10 matches, which usually cools off. They are also conceding fewer than expected — 2.3 goals saved beyond what the chances suggest.
WWWLDLDDDW last 10
scored 19
from 16.2 xG
conceded 15
from 17.3 xG
West Ham United are conceding sharply fewer than expected — 4.3 goals saved beyond what the chances suggest.
WDLWDWLLLW last 10
scored 12
from 13.5 xG
conceded 11
from 15.3 xG
Finishing swings far more than chance creation, so a gap this size usually narrows. Over ten matches it is suggestive, not settled — a genuinely elite finisher beats expected goals for years.
What the model said
| Model | Home / Draw / Away | Expected goals | Likeliest score | O2.5 | BTTS | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ai-blend-oos | 2.10–0.92 | 0% | 0% | 0% | Home ✓ | |
| dc-xg-oos | 2.91–0.84 | 2-0 10% | 72% | 54% | Home ✓ |
A model whose name ends -oos was produced by the walk-forward backtest:
it was fitted only on matches played before this one, so the pick is genuinely out of sample.
Reading the xG timeline
Each step up is a shot; the height of the step is how good the chance was. Dots mark goals.
A side whose line climbs steadily created chances all match. A side that scored while its
line stayed flat took a rare chance — that is finishing luck, and it rarely repeats.
Expected goals by minute
Liverpool 1.43 xGWest Ham United 1.50 xG
Reading the shot map
Each circle is a shot, placed where it was taken. Bigger means a better chance;
filled circles are goals. Clusters near the goal mean a side worked good openings;
lots of small circles far out means shooting from poor positions and hoping.
Hover any circle for the player, minute and chance quality.
Shot map
Liverpool attacking right
West Ham United attacking left
Marker size is xG; filled markers are goals.
Every shot
| Min | Team | Player | xG | Situation | Body part | Result | Assisted by |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5' |
 Liverpool |
Luis Díaz | 0.03 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | Diogo Jota |
| 6' |
Liverpool |
Alexis Mac Allister | 0.06 | Open Play | — | Missed Shot | Luis Díaz |
| 13' |
Liverpool |
Conor Bradley | 0.03 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | — |
| 14' |
Liverpool |
Curtis Jones | 0.02 | From Corner | Left Foot | Saved Shot | Mohamed Salah |
| 16' |
Liverpool |
Mohamed Salah | 0.03 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Ibrahima Konaté |
| 17' |
Liverpool |
Luis Díaz | 0.43 | Open Play | Right Foot | Goal | Mohamed Salah |
| 20' |
 West Ham United |
Carlos Soler | 0.25 | Open Play | Left Foot | Saved Shot | Aaron Wan-Bissaka |
| 20' |
West Ham United |
James Ward-Prowse | 0.08 | Open Play | Left Foot | Missed Shot | — |
| 20' |
West Ham United |
Mohammed Kudus | 0.03 | Open Play | Left Foot | Saved Shot | — |
| 21' |
West Ham United |
Carlos Soler | 0.34 | Open Play | — | Missed Shot | James Ward-Prowse |
| 24' |
Liverpool |
Ryan Gravenberch | 0.02 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Conor Bradley |
| 32' |
Liverpool |
Alexis Mac Allister | 0.32 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | Mohamed Salah |
| 33' |
Liverpool |
Luis Díaz | 0.08 | Open Play | — | Blocked Shot | Konstantinos Tsimikas |
| 42' |
West Ham United |
Mohammed Kudus | 0.02 | Open Play | Left Foot | Missed Shot | Carlos Soler |
| 45' |
West Ham United |
Konstantinos Mavropanos | 0.22 | From Corner | — | Missed Shot | James Ward-Prowse |
| 46' |
Liverpool |
Alexis Mac Allister | 0.05 | Direct Freekick | Right Foot | Shot On Post | — |
| 61' |
West Ham United |
Carlos Soler | 0.07 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | — |
| 66' |
West Ham United |
Jarrod Bowen | 0.33 | Open Play | Left Foot | Saved Shot | Lucas Paquetá |
| 70' |
West Ham United |
Mohammed Kudus | 0.05 | Open Play | Left Foot | Saved Shot | Aaron Wan-Bissaka |
| 76' |
West Ham United |
Mohammed Kudus | 0.06 | Open Play | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | Carlos Soler |
| 85' |
Liverpool |
Andrew Robertson | 0.00 | Open Play | Right Foot | Own Goal | — |
| 87' |
Liverpool |
Jarell Quansah | 0.09 | From Corner | — | Blocked Shot | Luis Díaz |
| 87' |
Liverpool |
Luis Díaz | 0.07 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Jarell Quansah |
| 87' |
Liverpool |
Virgil van Dijk | 0.09 | From Corner | — | Missed Shot | Alexis Mac Allister |
| 88' |
Liverpool |
Alexis Mac Allister | 0.01 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | — |
| 88' |
Liverpool |
Virgil van Dijk | 0.09 | From Corner | — | Goal | Alexis Mac Allister |
| 93' |
West Ham United |
Niclas Füllkrug | 0.05 | Open Play | — | Shot On Post | Max Kilman |
Players
West Ham United
| Player | Min | G | A | Sh | KP | xG | xA | xGChain |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jarrod Bowen FW | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.33 | 0.00 | 0.33 |
| Konstantinos Mavropanos DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.22 | 0.00 | 0.18 |
| Mohammed Kudus FW | 90 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 0 | 0.16 | 0.00 | 0.49 |
| James Ward-Prowse MC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0.08 | 0.56 | 0.54 |
| Alphonse Areola GK | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.33 |
| Aaron Wan-Bissaka DMR | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0.00 | 0.30 | 0.35 |
| Lucas Paquetá MC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.33 | 0.58 |
| Max Kilman DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.05 | 0.10 |
| Carlos Soler MC | 79 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 2 | 0.66 | 0.07 | 0.73 |
| Jean-Clair Todibo DC | 79 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.07 |
| Oliver Scarles DML | 58 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Vladimir Coufal Sub | 32 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| Niclas Füllkrug Sub | 11 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.05 | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| Luis Guilherme Sub | 11 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.05 |
Liverpool
| Player | Min | G | A | Sh | KP | xG | xA | xGChain |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Luis Díaz AML | 90 | 1 | 0 | 4 | 2 | 0.61 | 0.15 | 0.70 |
| Alexis Mac Allister DMC | 90 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 2 | 0.43 | 0.19 | 0.85 |
| Virgil van Dijk DC | 90 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0.19 | 0.00 | 0.49 |
| Ryan Gravenberch DMC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.02 | 0.00 | 0.12 |
| Alisson GK | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.78 |
| Ibrahima Konaté DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.03 | 0.47 |
| Mohamed Salah AMR | 86 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 0.03 | 0.77 | 0.78 |
| Conor Bradley DR | 69 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.03 | 0.02 | 0.45 |
| Curtis Jones AMC | 69 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.02 | 0.00 | 0.32 |
| Diogo Jota FW | 61 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.03 | 0.03 |
| Konstantinos Tsimikas DL | 61 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.08 | 0.51 |
| Cody Gakpo Sub | 29 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.07 |
| Andrew Robertson Sub | 29 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.07 |
| Jarell Quansah Sub | 21 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.09 | 0.07 | 0.07 |
| Dominik Szoboszlai Sub | 21 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.07 |
| Wataru Endo Sub | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |