Lorient v Monaco — Prediction, Odds & Stats

Saturday 17 October 2026 · FRA-Ligue 1 · 2627

Ligue 1 xG Prediction generated 4 Sep 2026, 02:09

Lorient

09:00

Monaco

AI prediction

ai-blend v1.0 daily Priced 7 Sep, 07:51 · 965h before kick-off

Lorient win

38.9%

model 36.1%

Draw

22.0%

model 24.5%

Monaco win

39.1%

model 39.4%

392239

Calibrated: the model's number corrected by how often calls at that confidence have landed, out of sample (483 settled matches in the thinnest band), then normalised. The smaller figure is the raw model output.

Top 5 scorelines

1-1 11.4%
1-2 8.6%
2-1 8.2%
0-1 7.9%
1-0 7.5%

Goals

Over 2.5	56.6%	Under 2.5	43.4%
BTTS yes	59.5%	BTTS no	40.5%
Lorient 1+	76.3%	Lorient 2+	42.2%
Monaco 1+	78.0%	Monaco 2+	44.7%

Expected goals 1.44 – 1.51. Every market above is read off one scoreline distribution.

Footing

AI confidence

90/100

Data quality

90/100

Model agreement

94%

★ Best pick

Monaco to win either half

Win either half · usually 46%

53.9% fair odds 1.85

moderate signal · 1059 settled matches behind the band

★ Most likely to land

Not both to score by HT

GG/NG half time · usually 81%

83.3% fair odds 1.20

moderate signal · 1227 settled matches behind the band

Positive factors

Monaco carry the stronger rating, 1668 Elo against 1579.
Monaco have created 1.40 xG a match over their last five while Lorient have allowed 1.62.
Form is good: 1.80 points a match from the last five.
Away from home Monaco average 1.33 xG a match.

Risk factors

No specific risk flags beyond the usual variance of a football match.

Why the model thinks this

The price

Monaco have an estimated 39.1% win probability, against 38.9% for Lorient and 22.0% for the draw. Expected goals from the ensemble are 1.44 for Lorient and 1.51 for Monaco.

Why Lorient

Lorient have created 1.49 xG a match over their last five while Monaco have allowed 1.71. At home Lorient average 1.46 xG a match.

Why the draw is live

The draw sits at 22.0%. The sides are closely matched on expected goals, 1.44 to 1.51. Draws run at 23% in this competition.

Why Monaco can win

Monaco carry the stronger rating, 1668 Elo against 1579. Monaco have created 1.40 xG a match over their last five while Lorient have allowed 1.62. Form is good: 1.80 points a match from the last five. Away from home Monaco average 1.33 xG a match.

Key players

Lorient's leading contributors by expected goal involvements a match: Ahmadou Bamba Dieng (0.40), Mamadou Koné (0.37), Pablo Pagis (0.36). Monaco's leading contributors by expected goal involvements a match: Folarin Balogun (0.53), Maghnes Akliouche (0.33), Anssumane Fati (0.30).

Availability

2 of Lorient's top three contributors did not start their last match. 36% of Lorient's last eleven are new to the club this window. 3 of Monaco's top three contributors did not start their last match.

The matchup, as far as the data reaches

Lorient: 51% possession, 12.0 shots a match, 11.4 faced, 0.32 xG a match from set pieces. Monaco: 39% possession, 11.8 shots a match, 16.7 faced, 0.22 xG a match from set pieces.

Inputs last refreshed: matches 2026-09-07 06:03 · team_stats 2026-09-07 06:05 · availability 2026-09-07 07:51 · prediction 2026-09-04 06:09 ·

Monaco are the model's most likely outcome at 39.1%. The likeliest scoreline is 1-1 at 11.4%. Confidence 90/100, data quality 90/100. These are probabilities, not certainties: the less likely outcome happens as often as its number says.

Written from the numbers the model saw, not by a language model; nothing here is a statistic the snapshot does not hold. How predictions work.

Was this pick made in advance?

A model whose name ends -oos is out of sample: it was fitted only on matches played before this one, so its pick is a genuine forecast rather than hindsight. Anything without that suffix was fitted on all available data.

What the chances say

Lorient are conceding sharply fewer than expected — 4.2 goals saved beyond what the chances suggest.

DLWLDWLDLW last 10 scored 13 from 15.0 xG conceded 12 from 16.2 xG

Monaco are finishing sharply above their chances — 4.1 goals more than expected across 10 matches, which usually cools off.

WLDDWLLWWW last 10 scored 18 from 14.0 xG conceded 17 from 17.1 xG

Finishing swings far more than chance creation, so a gap this size usually narrows. Over ten matches it is suggestive, not settled — a genuinely elite finisher beats expected goals for years.

What the model said

Model	Home / Draw / Away	Expected goals	Likeliest score	O2.5	BTTS
ai-blend	362539	1.44–1.51	0%	0%	0%
dc-xg	422434	1.61–1.45	1-1 11%	59%	61%

A model whose name ends -oos was produced by the walk-forward backtest: it was fitted only on matches played before this one, so the pick is genuinely out of sample.

Using this section

Every selection the model prices for this fixture, grouped by family — click a heading to open it. Calibrated is the number to read; lift shows how far it sits from what that selection normally does in this league. To compare selections across fixtures instead, use the Radar.

All markets

Every selection below comes from the same scoreline distribution, so they are mutually consistent rather than independently guessed. Calibrated is the model corrected by its own out-of-sample record; lift is how much more likely that is than the selection simply being true in this league anyway.

1X2 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Monaco to win	40.0%	36.4%	31.8%	1.15×	2.74
Lorient to win	35.7%	36.4%	45.6%	0.80×	2.75
Draw	24.4%	24.5%	22.8%	1.07×	4.09

1X2 & GG/NG 6

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Monaco & both teams score	21.4%	21.9%	15.9%	1.37×	4.57
Lorient & both teams score	19.3%	17.9%	22.0%	0.81×	5.58
Draw & both teams score	19.3%	17.9%	16.4%	1.09×	5.58
Monaco & not both score	18.6%	17.9%	16.1%	1.12×	5.58
Lorient & not both score	16.4%	17.9%	23.7%	0.76×	5.58
Draw & not both score	5.1%	8.4%	6.6%	1.28×	11.94

1X2 & Over/Under 18

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Monaco & over 1.5	32.2%	30.9%	25.6%	1.21×	3.24
Lorient & over 1.5	28.3%	26.0%	35.7%	0.73×	3.84
Monaco & over 2.5	26.1%	26.0%	20.0%	1.30×	3.84
Monaco & under 3.5	25.6%	26.0%	20.7%	1.25×	3.84
Lorient & under 3.5	23.3%	21.7%	28.9%	0.75×	4.62
Lorient & over 2.5	23.1%	21.7%	28.2%	0.77×	4.62
Draw & over 1.5	19.3%	18.0%	16.4%	1.10×	5.56
Draw & under 2.5	16.3%	18.0%	16.5%	1.09×	5.56
Draw & under 3.5	16.3%	18.0%	16.5%	1.09×	5.56
Monaco & under 2.5	13.8%	12.9%	12.0%	1.07×	7.77
Monaco & over 3.5	14.4%	12.9%	11.2%	1.15×	7.77
Lorient & under 2.5	12.6%	12.9%	17.5%	0.74×	7.77
Lorient & over 3.5	12.4%	12.9%	16.8%	0.76×	7.77
Lorient & under 1.5	7.3%	7.9%	10.0%	0.79×	12.70
Draw & over 2.5	8.0%	7.9%	6.4%	1.23×	12.70
Draw & over 3.5	8.0%	7.9%	6.4%	1.23×	12.70
Monaco & under 1.5	7.8%	7.9%	6.4%	1.23×	12.70
Draw & under 1.5	5.1%	7.9%	6.6%	1.20×	12.70

1X2 1UP 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Monaco (1UP)	57.7%	58.1%	49.6%	1.17×	1.72
Lorient (1UP)	54.0%	52.7%	58.0%	0.91×	1.90

1X2 2UP 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Monaco (2UP)	40.0%	37.3%	34.2%	1.09×	2.68
Lorient (2UP)	35.7%	37.0%	47.1%	0.79×	2.70

2nd half 1X2 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Lorient to win 2nd half	35.7%	36.0%	42.1%	0.86×	2.78
Monaco to win 2nd half	32.7%	34.5%	26.8%	1.29×	2.90
2nd half drawn	31.6%	34.5%	31.2%	1.11×	2.90

Asian handicap 8

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Monaco (+2.5)	93.8%	92.1%	90.0%	1.02×	1.09
Monaco (+1.5)	83.4%	82.4%	75.0%	1.10×	1.21
Monaco (+0.5)	64.3%	62.9%	54.4%	1.16×	1.59
Lorient (+0.5)	60.0%	62.9%	68.2%	0.92×	1.59
Monaco (-0.5)	40.0%	37.1%	31.8%	1.17×	2.70
Lorient (-0.5)	35.7%	37.1%	45.6%	0.81×	2.70
Lorient (-1.5)	16.6%	17.6%	25.0%	0.70×	5.69
Lorient (-2.5)	6.2%	7.9%	10.0%	0.79×	12.64

Away clean sheet 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Monaco to concede	76.3%	79.0%	77.5%	1.02×	1.27
Monaco clean sheet	23.7%	21.0%	22.5%	0.93×	4.76

Away clean sheet 1HT 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Monaco clean sheet in 1st half	63.5%	65.0%	52.3%	1.24×	1.54
Monaco to concede in 1st half	36.5%	35.0%	47.7%	0.73×	2.86

Away goals O/U 8

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Monaco under 3.5 goals	92.9%	92.3%	93.4%	0.99×	1.08
Monaco under 2.5 goals	79.9%	76.3%	84.6%	0.90×	1.31
Monaco over 0.5 goals	78.5%	76.2%	69.9%	1.09×	1.31
Monaco under 1.5 goals	54.5%	53.7%	63.2%	0.85×	1.86
Monaco over 1.5 goals	45.5%	46.3%	36.8%	1.26×	2.16
Monaco under 0.5 goals	21.5%	23.8%	30.1%	0.79×	4.21
Monaco over 2.5 goals	20.1%	23.7%	15.4%	1.54×	4.21
Monaco over 3.5 goals	7.1%	7.7%	6.6%	1.17×	13.04

Away goals O/U 1HT 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Monaco under 1.5 in 1st half	87.6%	89.1%	87.2%	1.02×	1.12
Monaco under 0.5 in 1st half	54.5%	56.3%	57.3%	0.98×	1.78
Monaco over 0.5 in 1st half	45.5%	43.7%	42.7%	1.02×	2.29
Monaco over 1.5 in 1st half	12.4%	10.9%	12.8%	0.86×	9.14

Away no bet 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Lorient (away no bet)	59.4%	57.5%	66.7%	0.86×	1.74
Draw (away no bet)	40.6%	42.5%	33.3%	1.27×	2.35

Away Odd/Even 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Monaco even goals	52.3%	52.8%	56.3%	0.94×	1.89
Monaco odd goals	47.7%	47.2%	43.7%	1.08×	2.12

Both halves O1.5 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Not both halves over 1.5	83.6%	83.0%	83.0%	1.00×	1.21
Both halves over 1.5 goals	16.4%	17.0%	17.0%	1.00×	5.88

Both halves U1.5 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Not both halves under 1.5	69.4%	68.8%	65.5%	1.05×	1.45
Both halves under 1.5 goals	30.6%	31.2%	34.5%	0.91×	3.20

Consecutive goals 6

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Either team to score 2+ in a row	60.0%	59.8%	60.2%	0.99×	1.67
Monaco to score 2+ in a row	35.8%	36.4%	28.1%	1.30×	2.75
Lorient to score 2+ in a row	32.4%	29.0%	38.1%	0.76×	3.45
Either team to score 3+ in a row	22.1%	19.5%	22.6%	0.86×	5.12
Monaco to score 3+ in a row	12.2%	12.2%	9.2%	1.32×	8.22
Lorient to score 3+ in a row	10.3%	12.1%	14.0%	0.86×	8.26

Correct score 26

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
1-1	11.3%	11.5%	10.1%	1.13×	8.73
1-2	8.7%	7.4%	6.6%	1.13×	13.48
0-1	7.8%	7.4%	6.4%	1.16×	13.48
1-0	7.3%	7.4%	10.0%	0.74×	13.48
2-1	8.1%	7.4%	8.0%	0.93×	13.48
0-0	5.1%	7.4%	6.6%	1.13×	13.48
0-2	6.0%	7.4%	5.8%	1.29×	13.48
2-0	5.3%	7.4%	7.6%	0.97×	13.48
2-2	6.2%	7.4%	4.8%	1.53×	13.48
0-3	3.1%	1.7%	2.5%	0.69×	58.47
0-4	1.2%	1.7%	1.6%	1.10×	58.48
1-3	4.4%	1.7%	3.4%	0.50×	58.46
1-4	1.7%	1.7%	1.6%	1.10×	58.48
2-3	3.2%	1.7%	1.9%	0.91×	58.47
2-4	1.2%	1.7%	0.8%	2.19×	58.48
3-0	2.5%	1.7%	3.7%	0.46×	58.48
3-1	3.9%	1.7%	6.2%	0.27×	58.47
3-2	3.0%	1.7%	2.8%	0.61×	58.47
3-3	1.5%	1.7%	1.6%	1.10×	58.48
3-4	0.6%	1.7%	0.8%	2.19×	58.49
4-0	0.9%	1.7%	1.7%	1.00×	58.48
4-1	1.4%	1.7%	2.0%	0.84×	58.48
4-2	1.1%	1.7%	1.6%	1.10×	58.48
4-3	0.6%	1.7%	0.3%	5.48×	58.49
4-4	0.2%	1.7%	0.3%	5.48×	58.49
Any other score	3.6%	1.7%	5.1%	0.33×	58.47

DNB half time 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Monaco leading at HT (DNB)	59.1%	58.0%	46.8%	1.24×	1.72
Lorient leading at HT (DNB)	40.9%	42.0%	53.2%	0.79×	2.38

Double chance 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Lorient or Monaco (12)	75.6%	75.5%	77.2%	0.98×	1.32
Monaco or draw (X2)	64.3%	63.6%	54.4%	1.17×	1.57
Lorient or draw (1X)	60.0%	63.6%	68.2%	0.93×	1.57

Double chance 1HT 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Monaco or draw at HT	77.5%	79.9%	67.2%	1.19×	1.25
Lorient or draw at HT	67.4%	66.4%	71.1%	0.93×	1.51
Lorient or Monaco at HT	55.2%	56.8%	61.5%	0.92×	1.76

Double chance 1UP 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Monaco or draw (1UP)	64.3%	71.8%	62.2%	1.15×	1.39
Lorient or draw (1UP)	60.0%	71.5%	72.5%	0.99×	1.40

Double chance 2HT 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Lorient or Monaco in 2nd half	68.4%	65.5%	68.8%	0.95×	1.53
Lorient or draw in 2nd half	67.3%	65.5%	73.2%	0.90×	1.53
Monaco or draw in 2nd half	64.3%	64.0%	57.9%	1.11×	1.56

Draw either half 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
A half drawn	62.3%	61.6%	56.8%	1.08×	1.62
Neither half drawn	37.7%	38.4%	43.2%	0.89×	2.60

Draw no bet 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Monaco (DNB)	52.9%	50.9%	41.1%	1.24×	1.96
Lorient (DNB)	47.1%	49.1%	58.9%	0.83×	2.04

First goal 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Monaco to score first	49.0%	45.6%	44.3%	1.03×	2.19
Lorient to score first	45.9%	45.5%	49.3%	0.92×	2.20
No goal scored	5.1%	7.4%	6.6%	1.13×	13.45

GG/NG 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Both teams to score	59.9%	54.9%	54.0%	1.02×	1.82
Not both teams to score	40.1%	45.1%	46.0%	0.98×	2.22

GG/NG & Over/Under 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Both score & over 2.5	48.7%	44.3%	44.0%	1.01×	2.26
Not both score & under 2.5	31.5%	34.3%	35.7%	0.96×	2.92
Both score & under 2.5	11.3%	12.3%	10.1%	1.22×	8.11
Not both score & over 2.5	8.5%	8.4%	10.5%	0.80×	11.95

GG/NG 2+ 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Not both teams to score 2+	80.8%	83.0%	84.7%	0.98×	1.20
Both teams to score 2+	19.2%	17.0%	15.3%	1.11×	5.89

GG/NG 2nd half 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Not both to score in 2nd half	62.0%	66.0%	69.9%	0.94×	1.52
Both teams to score in 2nd half	38.0%	34.0%	30.1%	1.13×	2.94

GG/NG by half 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Neither half both score	51.7%	55.9%	57.4%	0.97×	1.79
Both score 2nd half only	31.7%	26.5%	23.7%	1.12×	3.77
Both score 1st half only	10.3%	10.7%	12.6%	0.85×	9.34
Both score in both halves	6.3%	6.8%	6.6%	1.03×	14.79

GG/NG half time 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Not both to score by HT	83.4%	82.4%	81.0%	1.02×	1.21
Both teams to score by HT	16.6%	17.6%	19.0%	0.92×	5.69

Goal in both halves 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
A goal in each half	55.8%	57.2%	59.4%	0.96×	1.75
A half without a goal	44.2%	42.8%	40.6%	1.06×	2.34

Goal range 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
2-3 goals	45.0%	42.1%	43.4%	0.97×	2.37
4-6 goals	31.6%	30.7%	30.7%	1.00×	3.25
0-1 goals	20.2%	22.8%	22.6%	1.01×	4.39
7+ goals	3.2%	1.8%	3.6%	0.51×	54.47

Goals away 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Monaco to score exactly 1	33.0%	33.8%	33.2%	1.02×	2.96
Monaco to score exactly 2	25.4%	27.4%	21.5%	1.27×	3.65
Monaco to score exactly 0	21.5%	22.4%	30.1%	0.74×	4.47
Monaco to score 3+	20.1%	22.4%	15.4%	1.45×	4.47

Goals home 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Lorient to score exactly 1	34.1%	32.7%	31.8%	1.03×	3.06
Lorient to score exactly 2	24.6%	23.3%	23.1%	1.01×	4.30
Lorient to score exactly 0	23.7%	23.2%	22.5%	1.03×	4.30
Lorient to score 3+	17.6%	18.9%	22.9%	0.82×	5.29

Half time 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Draw at HT	44.8%	43.2%	38.5%	1.12×	2.32
Monaco leading at HT	32.6%	33.6%	28.9%	1.16×	2.98
Lorient leading at HT	22.5%	20.1%	32.8%	0.61×	4.97

Handicap 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Monaco -1: 1	60.0%	62.4%	—	—	1.60
Monaco -1: X	20.4%	23.6%	—	—	4.24
Monaco -1: 2	19.6%	17.5%	—	—	5.71

Handicap 0:1 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Monaco (0:1)	64.3%	61.5%	54.4%	1.13×	1.63
Draw (0:1)	19.1%	17.8%	20.7%	0.86×	5.63
Lorient (0:1)	16.6%	17.8%	25.0%	0.71×	5.63

Handicap 0:2 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Monaco (0:2)	83.4%	82.8%	75.0%	1.10×	1.21
Draw (0:2)	10.4%	11.0%	15.1%	0.72×	9.13
Lorient (0:2)	6.2%	7.7%	10.0%	0.77×	12.96

Handicap 0:3 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Monaco (0:3)	93.8%	92.6%	90.0%	1.03×	1.08
Draw (0:3)	4.3%	2.4%	6.1%	0.39×	42.07
Lorient (0:3)	1.9%	2.4%	4.1%	0.58×	42.18

Handicap 0:4 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Monaco (0:4)	98.1%	98.1%	95.9%	1.02×	1.02
Draw (0:4)	1.4%	1.2%	2.7%	0.45×	83.52
Lorient (0:4)	0.5%	1.2%	1.6%	0.77×	83.63

Handicap 1:0 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Lorient (1:0)	60.0%	65.0%	68.2%	0.95×	1.54
Draw (1:0)	20.4%	21.8%	15.1%	1.44×	4.60
Monaco (1:0)	19.6%	17.0%	16.8%	1.01×	5.87

Handicap 2:0 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Lorient (2:0)	80.4%	84.5%	83.2%	1.02×	1.18
Draw (2:0)	11.9%	10.4%	9.8%	1.06×	9.64
Monaco (2:0)	7.7%	6.5%	7.2%	0.90×	15.48

Highest scoring half 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
2nd half highest scoring	57.4%	58.6%	47.3%	1.24×	1.71
Halves equal	22.0%	24.1%	26.1%	0.92×	4.15
1st half highest scoring	20.6%	24.0%	26.8%	0.90×	4.16

Home clean sheet 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Lorient to concede	78.5%	76.0%	69.9%	1.09×	1.32
Lorient clean sheet	21.5%	24.0%	30.1%	0.80×	4.16

Home clean sheet 1HT 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Lorient clean sheet in 1st half	54.5%	56.3%	57.3%	0.98×	1.78
Lorient to concede in 1st half	45.5%	43.7%	42.7%	1.02×	2.29

Home goals O/U 8

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Lorient under 3.5 goals	94.2%	92.3%	91.7%	1.01×	1.08
Lorient under 2.5 goals	82.4%	82.1%	77.1%	1.07×	1.22
Lorient over 0.5 goals	76.3%	77.7%	77.5%	1.00×	1.29
Lorient under 1.5 goals	57.8%	58.8%	54.1%	1.09×	1.70
Lorient over 1.5 goals	42.2%	41.2%	45.9%	0.90×	2.43
Lorient under 0.5 goals	23.7%	22.3%	22.5%	0.99×	4.49
Lorient over 2.5 goals	17.6%	17.9%	22.9%	0.78×	5.59
Lorient over 3.5 goals	5.8%	7.7%	8.3%	0.94×	12.93

Home goals O/U 1HT 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Lorient under 1.5 in 1st half	92.3%	95.4%	87.4%	1.09×	1.05
Lorient under 0.5 in 1st half	63.5%	64.8%	52.3%	1.24×	1.54
Lorient over 0.5 in 1st half	36.5%	35.2%	47.7%	0.74×	2.84
Lorient over 1.5 in 1st half	7.7%	4.6%	12.6%	0.37×	21.64

Home no bet 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Monaco (home no bet)	62.1%	60.2%	58.3%	1.03×	1.66
Draw (home no bet)	37.9%	39.8%	41.7%	0.95×	2.51

Home Odd/Even 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Lorient even goals	52.8%	50.6%	51.3%	0.99×	1.98
Lorient odd goals	47.2%	49.4%	48.7%	1.01×	2.03

HT correct score 10

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
HT 0-0	34.6%	32.4%	28.5%	1.14×	3.08
HT 0-1	21.0%	24.1%	16.8%	1.43×	4.15
HT 1-0	15.7%	18.7%	21.1%	0.89×	5.35
HT 1-1	9.5%	7.1%	9.5%	0.75×	14.01
HT 0-2	6.4%	7.1%	5.5%	1.30×	14.06
HT 2-0	3.6%	2.3%	6.6%	0.35×	43.35
Any other HT score	3.5%	2.3%	4.7%	0.49×	43.36
HT 1-2	2.9%	2.3%	4.5%	0.51×	43.40
HT 2-1	2.2%	2.3%	3.3%	0.70×	43.45
HT 2-2	0.7%	2.3%	0.8%	2.94×	43.56

HT/FT 9

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Monaco at HT / Monaco at FT	23.1%	21.8%	19.3%	1.13×	4.58
Lorient at HT / Lorient at FT	16.2%	16.8%	27.5%	0.61×	5.97
Draw at HT / Lorient at FT	16.0%	16.7%	14.8%	1.13×	5.97
Draw at HT / Monaco at FT	14.7%	12.7%	11.1%	1.15×	7.88
Draw at HT / Draw at FT	14.2%	12.7%	12.9%	0.98×	7.88
Monaco at HT / Draw at FT	6.1%	6.0%	6.2%	0.96×	16.71
Lorient at HT / Draw at FT	4.1%	3.5%	3.9%	0.89×	28.80
Monaco at HT / Lorient at FT	3.5%	3.5%	3.6%	0.97×	28.83
Lorient at HT / Monaco at FT	2.2%	3.5%	1.7%	2.02×	28.88

Last goal 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Monaco to score last	49.0%	46.8%	40.4%	1.16×	2.14
Lorient to score last	45.9%	46.6%	53.2%	0.88×	2.14
No goal scored	5.1%	7.4%	6.6%	1.13×	13.45

Lead at any time 9

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Either team to lead by 1 at any time	94.9%	92.7%	93.4%	0.99×	1.08
Monaco to lead by 1 at any time	57.7%	55.1%	49.6%	1.11×	1.82
Lorient to lead by 1 at any time	54.0%	50.7%	58.0%	0.87×	1.97
Either team to lead by 2 at any time	49.7%	44.1%	51.3%	0.86×	2.27
Monaco to lead by 2 at any time	26.7%	25.4%	22.0%	1.16×	3.93
Lorient to lead by 2 at any time	23.4%	19.6%	29.5%	0.67×	5.09
Either team to lead by 3 at any time	18.2%	14.9%	20.1%	0.74×	6.70
Monaco to lead by 3 at any time	10.0%	10.4%	8.4%	1.24×	9.60
Lorient to lead by 3 at any time	8.2%	6.7%	11.9%	0.56×	15.02

Multi goal 15

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
1-5 goals	86.7%	87.4%	85.0%	1.03×	1.14
1-4 goals	76.8%	78.6%	76.4%	1.03×	1.27
2-6 goals	76.5%	78.6%	73.9%	1.06×	1.27
2-5 goals	71.6%	72.4%	69.0%	1.05×	1.38
2-4 goals	61.7%	63.4%	60.4%	1.05×	1.58
1-3 goals	60.1%	63.4%	59.4%	1.07×	1.58
3-6 goals	54.0%	53.2%	50.9%	1.05×	1.88
3-5 goals	49.0%	48.7%	45.9%	1.06×	2.06
2-3 goals	45.0%	43.6%	43.4%	1.00×	2.30
3-4 goals	39.1%	39.2%	37.3%	1.05×	2.55
1-2 goals	37.7%	39.2%	39.3%	1.00×	2.55
4-6 goals	31.6%	35.4%	30.7%	1.15×	2.83
4-5 goals	26.6%	30.2%	25.7%	1.17×	3.31
5-6 goals	14.9%	14.9%	13.7%	1.08×	6.72
7+ goals	3.2%	2.6%	3.6%	0.71×	39.18

Never down 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Monaco never behind	40.9%	48.1%	42.0%	1.15×	2.08
Lorient never behind	37.2%	44.7%	50.4%	0.89×	2.24

Odd/Even 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Odd number of goals	49.9%	50.8%	47.3%	1.08×	1.97
Even number of goals	50.1%	49.2%	52.7%	0.93×	2.03

Odd/Even 1HT 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Even goals in 1st half	56.0%	57.4%	51.6%	1.11×	1.74
Odd goals in 1st half	44.0%	42.6%	48.4%	0.88×	2.35

Odd/Even 2HT 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Even goals in 2nd half	51.1%	52.0%	49.5%	1.05×	1.92
Odd goals in 2nd half	48.9%	48.0%	50.5%	0.95×	2.09

Over/Under 12

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Over 0.5 goals	94.9%	92.3%	93.4%	0.99×	1.08
Under 5.5 goals	91.8%	92.3%	91.4%	1.01×	1.08
Under 4.5 goals	81.9%	82.4%	82.8%	0.99×	1.21
Over 1.5 goals	79.8%	77.4%	77.4%	1.00×	1.29
Under 3.5 goals	65.2%	66.2%	65.8%	1.01×	1.51
Over 2.5 goals	57.2%	58.8%	54.3%	1.08×	1.70
Under 2.5 goals	42.8%	41.2%	45.7%	0.90×	2.43
Over 3.5 goals	34.8%	33.8%	34.2%	0.99×	2.96
Under 1.5 goals	20.2%	22.6%	22.6%	1.00×	4.42
Over 4.5 goals	18.1%	17.6%	17.2%	1.03×	5.68
Over 5.5 goals	8.2%	7.7%	8.6%	0.90×	12.92
Under 0.5 goals	5.1%	7.7%	6.6%	1.18×	12.93

Over/Under (whole line) 10

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Under 6 (void on exactly 6)	96.6%	97.2%	96.2%	1.01×	1.03
Under 5 (void on exactly 5)	90.9%	92.5%	90.6%	1.02×	1.08
Under 4 (void on exactly 4)	78.2%	75.9%	79.3%	0.96×	1.32
Over 2 (void on exactly 2)	73.9%	72.6%	70.6%	1.03×	1.38
Under 3 (void on exactly 3)	55.1%	55.4%	57.2%	0.97×	1.81
Over 3 (void on exactly 3)	44.9%	44.6%	42.8%	1.04×	2.24
Under 2 (void on exactly 2)	26.1%	27.4%	29.4%	0.93×	3.65
Over 4 (void on exactly 4)	21.8%	24.1%	20.7%	1.16×	4.16
Over 5 (void on exactly 5)	9.1%	7.5%	9.4%	0.80×	13.25
Over 6 (void on exactly 6)	3.4%	2.8%	3.8%	0.73×	36.12

Over/Under 1HT 6

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Under 2.5 in 1st half	90.8%	92.6%	87.2%	1.06×	1.08
Under 1.5 in 1st half	71.4%	71.2%	66.1%	1.08×	1.41
Over 0.5 in 1st half	65.4%	68.9%	71.5%	0.96×	1.45
Under 0.5 in 1st half	34.6%	31.1%	28.5%	1.09×	3.22
Over 1.5 in 1st half	28.6%	28.8%	33.9%	0.85×	3.47
Over 2.5 in 1st half	9.2%	7.4%	12.8%	0.58×	13.48

Over/Under 2HT 6

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Over 0.5 in 2nd half	85.3%	85.2%	81.4%	1.05×	1.17
Under 2.5 in 2nd half	69.9%	67.7%	75.4%	0.90×	1.48
Over 1.5 in 2nd half	57.2%	54.8%	48.7%	1.13×	1.82
Under 1.5 in 2nd half	42.8%	45.2%	51.3%	0.88×	2.21
Over 2.5 in 2nd half	30.1%	32.3%	24.6%	1.31×	3.09
Under 0.5 in 2nd half	14.7%	14.8%	18.6%	0.80×	6.78

Score both halves 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Lorient not to score in both halves	77.1%	78.2%	68.0%	1.15×	1.28
Monaco not to score in both halves	72.4%	73.8%	77.4%	0.95×	1.36
Monaco to score in both halves	27.6%	26.2%	22.6%	1.16×	3.81
Lorient to score in both halves	22.9%	21.8%	32.0%	0.68×	4.59

Teams to score 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Both teams score	59.9%	58.4%	54.0%	1.08×	1.71
Only Monaco scores	18.6%	16.1%	16.1%	1.00×	6.22
Only Lorient scores	16.4%	16.1%	23.7%	0.68×	6.22
Neither team scores	5.1%	7.2%	6.6%	1.10×	13.93

Total goals 7

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Exactly 2 goals	22.6%	22.6%	23.2%	0.97×	4.42
Exactly 3 goals	22.4%	22.6%	20.3%	1.11×	4.42
Exactly 4 goals	16.7%	17.4%	17.2%	1.02×	5.74
Exactly 1 goals	15.1%	17.4%	16.2%	1.07×	5.74
Exactly 5 goals	9.9%	7.6%	8.7%	0.88×	13.08
6 or more goals	8.2%	7.6%	8.6%	0.89×	13.08
Exactly 0 goals	5.1%	7.6%	6.6%	1.17×	13.09

Total goals 2nd half 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
2+ goals in 2nd half	57.2%	53.3%	48.7%	1.10×	1.88
1 goal in 2nd half	28.2%	29.8%	32.9%	0.91×	3.35
No goals in 2nd half	14.7%	14.6%	18.6%	0.78×	6.87

Win both halves 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Lorient not to win both halves	92.0%	93.9%	83.3%	1.13×	1.07
Monaco not to win both halves	89.3%	88.0%	90.6%	0.97×	1.14
Monaco to win both halves	10.7%	12.0%	9.4%	1.29×	8.31
Lorient to win both halves	8.0%	6.1%	16.7%	0.36×	16.48

Win either half 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Monaco to win either half	54.7%	55.0%	46.3%	1.19×	1.82
Lorient to win either half	50.2%	54.9%	58.2%	0.94×	1.82
Lorient to win neither half	49.8%	45.1%	41.8%	1.08×	2.22
Monaco to win neither half	45.3%	45.0%	53.7%	0.84×	2.22

Win to nil 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Lorient not to win to nil	83.6%	83.0%	76.3%	1.09×	1.20
Monaco not to win to nil	81.4%	83.0%	83.9%	0.99×	1.21
Monaco to win to nil	18.6%	17.0%	16.1%	1.06×	5.89
Lorient to win to nil	16.4%	17.0%	23.7%	0.72×	5.89

Winning margin 7

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Draw	24.4%	24.2%	22.8%	1.06×	4.14
Monaco by 1	20.4%	24.1%	15.1%	1.60×	4.14
Lorient by 1	19.1%	16.9%	20.7%	0.82×	5.91
Monaco by 2	11.9%	11.8%	9.8%	1.20×	8.48
Lorient by 2	10.4%	11.8%	15.1%	0.78×	8.48
Monaco by 3+	7.7%	7.3%	7.2%	1.01×	13.78
Lorient by 3+	6.2%	7.3%	10.0%	0.73×	13.79