Lorient v Nice — Prediction, Odds & Stats
Sunday 30 November 2025 · FRA-Ligue 1 · 2526
Ligue 1
xG Prediction generated
Shots
19 – 9
On target
7 – 2
Shots in box
14 – 7
xG per shot
0.19 – 0.15
Set-piece xG
0.93 – 0.13
Goals − xG
-0.55 – -0.33
AI prediction
ai-blend-oos No snapshot has been taken for this fixture yet; this is the stored price.Lorient win
33.8%
Draw
22.0%
Nice win
44.3%
Probabilities, not certainties. How they are made: the methodology.
Was this pick made in advance?
A model whose name ends
-oos is out of sample: it was fitted only on matches
played before this one, so its pick is a genuine forecast rather than hindsight.
Anything without that suffix was fitted on all available data.What the chances say
Lorient are conceding sharply fewer than expected — 4.2 goals saved beyond what the chances suggest.
DLWLDWLDLW last 10
scored 13
from 15.0 xG
conceded 12
from 16.2 xG
Nice are finishing sharply below their chances — 5.6 goals fewer than expected across 10 matches, despite creating the openings. They are also conceding sharply fewer than expected — 5.5 goals saved beyond what the chances suggest.
LDDDDLDDLD last 10
scored 6
from 11.6 xG
conceded 12
from 17.5 xG
Finishing swings far more than chance creation, so a gap this size usually narrows. Over ten matches it is suggestive, not settled — a genuinely elite finisher beats expected goals for years.
What the model said
| Model | Home / Draw / Away | Expected goals | Likeliest score | O2.5 | BTTS | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ai-blend-oos | 1.40–1.64 | 0% | 0% | 0% | Away ✗ | |
| dc-xg-oos | 1.65–1.54 | 1-1 10% | 62% | 63% | Home ✓ |
A model whose name ends -oos was produced by the walk-forward backtest:
it was fitted only on matches played before this one, so the pick is genuinely out of sample.
Reading the xG timeline
Each step up is a shot; the height of the step is how good the chance was. Dots mark goals.
A side whose line climbs steadily created chances all match. A side that scored while its
line stayed flat took a rare chance — that is finishing luck, and it rarely repeats.
Expected goals by minute
Lorient 3.55 xGNice 1.33 xG
Reading the shot map
Each circle is a shot, placed where it was taken. Bigger means a better chance;
filled circles are goals. Clusters near the goal mean a side worked good openings;
lots of small circles far out means shooting from poor positions and hoping.
Hover any circle for the player, minute and chance quality.
Shot map
Lorient attacking right
Nice attacking left
Marker size is xG; filled markers are goals.
Every shot
| Min | Team | Player | xG | Situation | Body part | Result | Assisted by |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4' |
 Nice |
Mohamed Ali-Cho | 0.14 | Open Play | Left Foot | Missed Shot | Terem Igobor Moffi |
| 8' |
 Lorient |
Jean-Victor Makengo | 0.04 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | — |
| 8' |
Lorient |
Sambou Soumano | 0.05 | Open Play | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | Arsène Kouassi |
| 11' |
Lorient |
Arthur Avom | 0.00 | Open Play | — | Own Goal | — |
| 16' |
Lorient |
Sambou Soumano | 0.06 | Open Play | — | Missed Shot | Bamo Meïté |
| 25' |
Nice |
Mohamed Ali-Cho | 0.02 | Set Piece | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | — |
| 30' |
Lorient |
Laurent Abergel | 0.03 | Open Play | Left Foot | Goal | — |
| 30' |
Lorient |
Pablo Pagis | 0.08 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Jean-Victor Makengo |
| 34' |
Nice |
Kojo Peprah Oppong | 0.04 | From Corner | — | Missed Shot | Jonathan Clauss |
| 41' |
Nice |
Jonathan Clauss | 0.03 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Mohamed Ali-Cho |
| 43' |
Nice |
Tom Louchet | 0.31 | Open Play | Right Foot | Shot On Post | Terem Igobor Moffi |
| 45' |
Nice |
Tiago Gouveia | 0.09 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | Jonathan Clauss |
| 46' |
Lorient |
Sambou Soumano | 0.61 | Open Play | Right Foot | Goal | Arsène Kouassi |
| 48' |
Lorient |
Jean-Victor Makengo | 0.04 | Open Play | Left Foot | Saved Shot | — |
| 51' |
Lorient |
Pablo Pagis | 0.02 | From Corner | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Théo Le Bris |
| 51' |
Lorient |
Sambou Soumano | 0.12 | Open Play | Left Foot | Saved Shot | Pablo Pagis |
| 52' |
Lorient |
Bamo Meïté | 0.07 | From Corner | — | Missed Shot | Pablo Pagis |
| 52' |
Lorient |
Sambou Soumano | 0.74 | From Corner | Right Foot | Goal | Bamo Meïté |
| 61' |
Lorient |
Théo Le Bris | 0.03 | Set Piece | Right Foot | Saved Shot | — |
| 62' |
Nice |
Kevin Omoruyi | 0.62 | Open Play | — | Saved Shot | — |
| 74' |
Lorient |
Dermane Karim | 0.05 | Open Play | Left Foot | Missed Shot | Laurent Abergel |
| 76' |
Nice |
Antoine Mendy | 0.07 | From Corner | — | Blocked Shot | Tom Louchet |
| 81' |
Lorient |
Joel Mvuka | 0.33 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Arthur Avom |
| 87' |
Lorient |
Ahmadou Bamba Dieng | 0.07 | Set Piece | — | Missed Shot | Darline Yongwa |
| 87' |
Lorient |
Ahmadou Bamba Dieng | 0.15 | Open Play | Left Foot | Shot On Post | — |
| 87' |
Lorient |
Ahmadou Bamba Dieng | 0.92 | Open Play | — | Saved Shot | Joel Mvuka |
| 91' |
Nice |
Tom Louchet | 0.01 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Jeremie Boga |
| 93' |
Lorient |
Ahmadou Bamba Dieng | 0.14 | Open Play | Left Foot | Missed Shot | Arsène Kouassi |
Players
Nice
| Player | Min | G | A | Sh | KP | xG | xA | xGChain |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tom Louchet MC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0.33 | 0.07 | 0.33 |
| Antoine Mendy DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.07 | 0.00 | 0.41 |
| Jonathan Clauss DMR | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0.03 | 0.13 | 0.12 |
| Yehvann Diouf GK | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.09 |
| Melvin Bard DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.09 |
| Terem Igobor Moffi FW | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0.00 | 0.45 | 0.46 |
| Mohamed Ali-Cho FW | 81 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0.16 | 0.03 | 0.17 |
| Salis Abdul Samed MC | 73 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.40 |
| Kojo Peprah Oppong DC | 66 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.04 | 0.00 | 0.40 |
| Tiago Gouveia DML | 65 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.09 | 0.00 | 0.09 |
| Sofiane Diop MC | 64 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.40 |
| Kevin Omoruyi Sub | 26 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.62 | 0.00 | 0.62 |
| Isak Jansson Sub | 25 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Ali Abdi Sub | 24 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.01 |
| Morgan Sanson Sub | 17 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Jeremie Boga Sub | 9 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.01 | 0.01 |
Lorient
| Player | Min | G | A | Sh | KP | xG | xA | xGChain |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bamo Meïté DC | 90 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0.07 | 0.79 | 0.06 |
| Laurent Abergel MC | 90 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.03 | 0.05 | 0.34 |
| Darline Yongwa DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.07 | 0.73 |
| Arthur Avom MC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.33 | 0.78 |
| Montassar Talbi DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.75 |
| Arsène Kouassi DML | 90 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 0.00 | 0.80 | 0.91 |
| Yvon Mvogo GK | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Sambou Soumano FW | 84 | 2 | 0 | 5 | 0 | 1.57 | 0.00 | 0.89 |
| Théo Le Bris DMR | 84 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.03 | 0.02 | 0.05 |
| Pablo Pagis AMC | 69 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 0.10 | 0.19 | 0.23 |
| Jean-Victor Makengo AMC | 69 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0.08 | 0.08 | 0.76 |
| Dermane Karim Sub | 21 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.05 | 0.00 | 0.53 |
| Noah Cadiou Sub | 21 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.47 |
| Ahmadou Bamba Dieng Sub | 6 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 0 | 1.28 | 0.00 | 1.21 |
| Joel Mvuka Sub | 6 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.33 | 0.92 | 1.39 |
| Nathaniel Adjei Sub | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.14 |