Lorient v Rennes — Prediction, Odds & Stats
Sunday 24 August 2025 · FRA-Ligue 1 · 2526
Ligue 1
xG Prediction generated
Shots
22 – 4
On target
7 – 1
Shots in box
13 – 0
xG per shot
0.16 – 0.02
Set-piece xG
0.21 – 0.01
Goals − xG
+0.51 – -0.07
AI prediction
dc-xg-oos No snapshot has been taken for this fixture yet; this is the stored price.Lorient win
43.1%
Draw
24.6%
Rennes win
32.3%
Probabilities, not certainties. How they are made: the methodology.
Was this pick made in advance?
A model whose name ends
-oos is out of sample: it was fitted only on matches
played before this one, so its pick is a genuine forecast rather than hindsight.
Anything without that suffix was fitted on all available data.What the chances say
Lorient are conceding sharply fewer than expected — 4.2 goals saved beyond what the chances suggest.
DLWLDWLDLW last 10
scored 13
from 15.0 xG
conceded 12
from 16.2 xG
Rennes are conceding fewer than expected — 3.9 goals saved beyond what the chances suggest.
WWWWLWLDWW last 10
scored 21
from 20.4 xG
conceded 16
from 19.9 xG
Finishing swings far more than chance creation, so a gap this size usually narrows. Over ten matches it is suggestive, not settled — a genuinely elite finisher beats expected goals for years.
What the model said
| Model | Home / Draw / Away | Expected goals | Likeliest score | O2.5 | BTTS | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| dc-xg-oos | 1.57–1.33 | 1-1 12% | 55% | 58% | Home ✓ |
A model whose name ends -oos was produced by the walk-forward backtest:
it was fitted only on matches played before this one, so the pick is genuinely out of sample.
Reading the xG timeline
Each step up is a shot; the height of the step is how good the chance was. Dots mark goals.
A side whose line climbs steadily created chances all match. A side that scored while its
line stayed flat took a rare chance — that is finishing luck, and it rarely repeats.
Expected goals by minute
Lorient 3.49 xGRennes 0.07 xG
Reading the shot map
Each circle is a shot, placed where it was taken. Bigger means a better chance;
filled circles are goals. Clusters near the goal mean a side worked good openings;
lots of small circles far out means shooting from poor positions and hoping.
Hover any circle for the player, minute and chance quality.
Shot map
Lorient attacking right
Rennes attacking left
Marker size is xG; filled markers are goals.
Every shot
| Min | Team | Player | xG | Situation | Body part | Result | Assisted by |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0' |
 Lorient |
Arthur Avom | 0.01 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | — |
| 12' |
Lorient |
Arsène Kouassi | 0.07 | Direct Freekick | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | — |
| 12' |
Lorient |
Arthur Avom | 0.01 | Set Piece | Right Foot | Missed Shot | — |
| 19' |
 Rennes |
Mahamadou Nagida | 0.02 | Open Play | Left Foot | Saved Shot | Seko Fofana |
| 20' |
Rennes |
Seko Fofana | 0.02 | Open Play | Right Foot | Shot On Post | Valentin Rongier |
| 22' |
Lorient |
Dermane Karim | 0.06 | Open Play | Left Foot | Missed Shot | Aiyegun Tosin |
| 22' |
Lorient |
Panos Katseris | 0.12 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Aiyegun Tosin |
| 22' |
Lorient |
Panos Katseris | 0.14 | Open Play | Left Foot | Missed Shot | — |
| 22' |
Lorient |
Sambou Soumano | 0.09 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | — |
| 31' |
Rennes |
Ludovic Blas | 0.01 | Open Play | Left Foot | Missed Shot | Mahamadou Nagida |
| 41' |
Lorient |
Sambou Soumano | 0.03 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Laurent Abergel |
| 43' |
Lorient |
Aiyegun Tosin | 0.03 | Open Play | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | Laurent Abergel |
| 46' |
Lorient |
Aiyegun Tosin | 0.12 | From Corner | Right Foot | Goal | Arsène Kouassi |
| 48' |
Lorient |
Sambou Soumano | 0.58 | Open Play | Left Foot | Goal | Arthur Avom |
| 50' |
Rennes |
Mahamadou Nagida | 0.01 | From Corner | Left Foot | Missed Shot | — |
| 51' |
Lorient |
Arthur Avom | 0.09 | Open Play | Left Foot | Missed Shot | Panos Katseris |
| 53' |
Lorient |
Aiyegun Tosin | 0.02 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | — |
| 53' |
Lorient |
Panos Katseris | 0.02 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | Igor Silva |
| 57' |
Lorient |
Laurent Abergel | 0.03 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | — |
| 58' |
Lorient |
Laurent Abergel | 0.01 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Pablo Pagis |
| 60' |
Lorient |
Aiyegun Tosin | 0.12 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | Laurent Abergel |
| 64' |
Lorient |
Arthur Avom | 0.14 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Aiyegun Tosin |
| 64' |
Lorient |
Pablo Pagis | 0.50 | Open Play | Right Foot | Goal | Mohamed Bamba |
| 68' |
Lorient |
Théo Le Bris | 0.50 | Open Play | — | Goal | — |
| 70' |
Lorient |
Pablo Pagis | 0.06 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | Arsène Kouassi |
| 76' |
Lorient |
Mohamed Bamba | 0.72 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Darline Yongwa |
Players
Rennes
| Player | Min | G | A | Sh | KP | xG | xA | xGChain |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Seko Fofana MC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.02 | 0.02 | 0.05 |
| Valentin Rongier MC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.02 | 0.05 |
| Jérémy Jacquet DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.02 |
| Brice Samba GK | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.02 |
| Anthony Rouault DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.02 |
| Quentin Merlin DML | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.02 |
| Ludovic Blas FW | 69 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.01 | 0.00 | 0.01 |
| Fabian Rieder MC | 69 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Mahamadou Nagida Sub | 64 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0.04 | 0.01 | 0.04 |
| Ibrahim Salah Sub | 21 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Djaoui Cissé Sub | 21 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Mohamed Meïté FW | 15 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Alidu Seidu Sub | 11 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Christopher Wooh DC | 10 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Mahdi Camara DMR | 5 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
Lorient
| Player | Min | G | A | Sh | KP | xG | xA | xGChain |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Panos Katseris DMR | 90 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 0.28 | 0.09 | 0.73 |
| Arthur Avom MC | 90 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 1 | 0.25 | 0.58 | 1.15 |
| Laurent Abergel MC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 3 | 0.04 | 0.18 | 1.00 |
| Bingourou Kamara GK | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Montassar Talbi DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.41 |
| Igor Silva DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.02 | 1.12 |
| Arsène Kouassi DML | 79 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0.07 | 0.18 | 0.29 |
| Aiyegun Tosin FWR | 72 | 1 | 0 | 4 | 3 | 0.29 | 0.32 | 0.49 |
| Sambou Soumano FW | 62 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0.70 | 0.00 | 0.70 |
| Dermane Karim FWL | 62 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.06 | 0.00 | 0.16 |
| Formose Mendy DC | 52 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.12 |
| Abdoulaye Faye Sub | 38 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.32 |
| Mohamed Bamba Sub | 28 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0.72 | 0.50 | 1.21 |
| Pablo Pagis Sub | 28 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0.56 | 0.01 | 0.69 |
| Théo Le Bris Sub | 18 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.50 | 0.00 | 0.50 |
| Darline Yongwa Sub | 11 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.72 | 0.72 |