Lyon v Lille — Prediction, Odds & Stats
Sunday 1 February 2026 · FRA-Ligue 1 · 2526
Ligue 1
xG Prediction generated
Shots
3 – 11
On target
2 – 4
Shots in box
3 – 3
xG per shot
0.21 – 0.04
Set-piece xG
0.00 – 0.09
Goals − xG
+0.38 – -0.39
AI prediction
ai-blend-oos No snapshot has been taken for this fixture yet; this is the stored price.Lyon win
55.0%
Draw
20.8%
Lille win
24.1%
Probabilities, not certainties. How they are made: the methodology.
Was this pick made in advance?
A model whose name ends
-oos is out of sample: it was fitted only on matches
played before this one, so its pick is a genuine forecast rather than hindsight.
Anything without that suffix was fitted on all available data.What the chances say
Lyon are conceding fewer than expected — 2.1 goals saved beyond what the chances suggest.
DWWWWLLWDW last 10
scored 18
from 17.0 xG
conceded 13
from 15.1 xG
Lille are conceding sharply fewer than expected — 6.0 goals saved beyond what the chances suggest.
WWDWDWLWDW last 10
scored 15
from 15.0 xG
conceded 5
from 11.0 xG
Finishing swings far more than chance creation, so a gap this size usually narrows. Over ten matches it is suggestive, not settled — a genuinely elite finisher beats expected goals for years.
What the model said
| Model | Home / Draw / Away | Expected goals | Likeliest score | O2.5 | BTTS | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ai-blend-oos | 1.73–1.04 | 0% | 0% | 0% | Home ✓ | |
| dc-xg-oos | 1.79–1.21 | 1-1 11% | 58% | 58% | Home ✓ |
A model whose name ends -oos was produced by the walk-forward backtest:
it was fitted only on matches played before this one, so the pick is genuinely out of sample.
Reading the xG timeline
Each step up is a shot; the height of the step is how good the chance was. Dots mark goals.
A side whose line climbs steadily created chances all match. A side that scored while its
line stayed flat took a rare chance — that is finishing luck, and it rarely repeats.
Expected goals by minute
Lyon 0.62 xGLille 0.39 xG
Reading the shot map
Each circle is a shot, placed where it was taken. Bigger means a better chance;
filled circles are goals. Clusters near the goal mean a side worked good openings;
lots of small circles far out means shooting from poor positions and hoping.
Hover any circle for the player, minute and chance quality.
Shot map
Lyon attacking right
Lille attacking left
Marker size is xG; filled markers are goals.
Every shot
| Min | Team | Player | xG | Situation | Body part | Result | Assisted by |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12' |
 Lille |
Romain Perraud | 0.07 | Set Piece | Right Foot | Saved Shot | Felix Correia |
| 14' |
 Lyon |
Abner | 0.10 | Open Play | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | Afonso Moreira |
| 21' |
Lille |
Romain Perraud | 0.01 | Open Play | Left Foot | Saved Shot | Benjamin André |
| 27' |
Lille |
Matias Fernandez-Pardo | 0.03 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | Ayyoub Bouaddi |
| 30' |
Lille |
Ayyoub Bouaddi | 0.02 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Hákon Haraldsson |
| 36' |
Lyon |
Noah Nartey | 0.43 | Open Play | Right Foot | Goal | Ruben Kluivert |
| 47' |
Lille |
Hákon Haraldsson | 0.02 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Matias Fernandez-Pardo |
| 58' |
Lille |
Ngal'ayel Mukau | 0.05 | Open Play | Left Foot | Missed Shot | Felix Correia |
| 63' |
Lille |
Felix Correia | 0.01 | Set Piece | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Romain Perraud |
| 66' |
Lille |
Ngal'ayel Mukau | 0.03 | Open Play | Left Foot | Missed Shot | Ayyoub Bouaddi |
| 73' |
Lyon |
Pavel Sulc | 0.09 | Open Play | Left Foot | Saved Shot | — |
| 85' |
Lille |
Soriba Diaoune | 0.06 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | — |
| 87' |
Lille |
Soriba Diaoune | 0.04 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Hákon Haraldsson |
| 92' |
Lille |
Matias Fernandez-Pardo | 0.03 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | Soriba Diaoune |
Players
Lille
| Player | Min | G | A | Sh | KP | xG | xA | xGChain |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Matias Fernandez-Pardo FW | 90 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0.07 | 0.02 | 0.17 |
| Ayyoub Bouaddi DMC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0.02 | 0.07 | 0.09 |
| Hákon Haraldsson AMC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0.02 | 0.06 | 0.08 |
| Aissa Mandi DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.06 |
| Benjamin André DMC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.01 | 0.14 |
| Berke Özer GK | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| Nathan Ngoy DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| Tiago Santos DR | 88 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.03 |
| Romain Perraud DL | 81 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0.08 | 0.01 | 0.06 |
| Ngal'ayel Mukau AMR | 71 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0.08 | 0.00 | 0.08 |
| Felix Correia AML | 71 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0.01 | 0.13 | 0.13 |
| Marius Broholm Sub | 19 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Olivier Giroud Sub | 19 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Calvin Verdonk Sub | 9 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.06 |
| Soriba Diaoune Sub | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0.10 | 0.03 | 0.13 |
Lyon
| Player | Min | G | A | Sh | KP | xG | xA | xGChain |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Noah Nartey MC | 90 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.43 | 0.00 | 0.53 |
| Abner MC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.10 | 0.00 | 0.10 |
| Ruben Kluivert DL | 90 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.43 | 0.52 |
| Moussa Niakhate DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.43 |
| Endrick FWR | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.10 |
| Dominik Greif GK | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Clinton Mata DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.53 |
| Ainsley Maitland-Niles DR | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.43 |
| Afonso Moreira FWL | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.10 | 0.62 |
| Tanner Tessmann MC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.43 |
| Pavel Sulc FW | 85 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.09 | 0.00 | 0.19 |
| Rémi Himbert Sub | 5 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Hans Hateboer Sub | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Adam Karabec Sub | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |