Lyon v Nice — Prediction, Odds & Stats

Saturday 17 October 2026 · FRA-Ligue 1 · 2627

Ligue 1 xG Prediction generated 4 Sep 2026, 02:09

Lyon

09:00

Nice

AI prediction

ai-blend v1.0 daily Priced 7 Sep, 07:51 · 965h before kick-off

Lyon win

57.8%

model 57.4%

Draw

21.1%

model 21.6%

Nice win

21.1%

model 20.9%

582121

Calibrated: the model's number corrected by how often calls at that confidence have landed, out of sample (282 settled matches in the thinnest band), then normalised. The smaller figure is the raw model output.

Top 5 scorelines

1-1 10.0%
2-1 9.9%
1-0 9.0%
2-0 8.9%
3-1 6.5%

Goals

Over 2.5	59.5%	Under 2.5	40.5%
BTTS yes	57.7%	BTTS no	42.3%
Lyon 1+	86.1%	Lyon 2+	58.7%
Nice 1+	67.0%	Nice 2+	30.5%

Expected goals 1.97 – 1.11. Every market above is read off one scoreline distribution.

Footing

AI confidence

93/100

Data quality

90/100

Model agreement

98%

★ Best pick

Lyon to score 2+ in a row

Consecutive goals · usually 38%

53.0% fair odds 1.89

strong signal · 769 settled matches behind the band

★ Most likely to land

Nice (0:3)

Handicap 0:3 · usually 90%

83.4% fair odds 1.20

moderate signal · 235 settled matches behind the band

Positive factors

Lyon carry the stronger rating, 1647 Elo against 1456.
Lyon have created 1.70 xG a match over their last five while Nice have allowed 1.75.
At home Lyon average 2.23 xG a match.

Risk factors

No specific risk flags beyond the usual variance of a football match.

Why the model thinks this

The price

Lyon have an estimated 57.8% win probability, against 21.1% for the draw and 21.1% for Nice. Expected goals from the ensemble are 1.97 for Lyon and 1.11 for Nice.

Why Lyon

Lyon carry the stronger rating, 1647 Elo against 1456. Lyon have created 1.70 xG a match over their last five while Nice have allowed 1.75. At home Lyon average 2.23 xG a match.

Why the draw is live

The draw sits at 21.1%. Draws run at 23% in this competition.

Why Nice can win

Nice have created 1.16 xG a match over their last five while Lyon have allowed 1.51. Away from home Nice average 0.92 xG a match. Their last eleven was closer to full strength: Lyon were missing 1.27 expected goal involvements a match against 0.75.

Key players

Lyon's leading contributors by expected goal involvements a match: Loïs Openda (0.70), Endrick (0.56), Corentin Tolisso (0.40). Nice's leading contributors by expected goal involvements a match: Sepe Elye Wahi (0.33), Jonathan Clauss (0.31), Sofiane Diop (0.30).

Availability

1 of Lyon's top three contributors did not start their last match. 36% of Lyon's last eleven are new to the club this window. 1 of Nice's top three contributors did not start their last match. 36% of Nice's last eleven are new to the club this window.

The matchup, as far as the data reaches

Lyon: 58% possession, 16.2 shots a match, 13.0 faced, 0.30 xG a match from set pieces. Nice: 54% possession, 13.8 shots a match, 13.0 faced, 0.24 xG a match from set pieces.

Inputs last refreshed: matches 2026-09-07 06:03 · team_stats 2026-09-07 06:05 · availability 2026-09-07 07:51 · prediction 2026-09-04 06:09 ·

Lyon are the model's most likely outcome at 57.8%. The likeliest scoreline is 1-1 at 10.0%. Confidence 93/100, data quality 90/100. These are probabilities, not certainties: the less likely outcome happens as often as its number says.

Written from the numbers the model saw, not by a language model; nothing here is a statistic the snapshot does not hold. How predictions work.

Was this pick made in advance?

A model whose name ends -oos is out of sample: it was fitted only on matches played before this one, so its pick is a genuine forecast rather than hindsight. Anything without that suffix was fitted on all available data.

What the chances say

Lyon are conceding fewer than expected — 2.1 goals saved beyond what the chances suggest.

DWWWWLLWDW last 10 scored 18 from 17.0 xG conceded 13 from 15.1 xG

Nice are finishing sharply below their chances — 5.6 goals fewer than expected across 10 matches, despite creating the openings. They are also conceding sharply fewer than expected — 5.5 goals saved beyond what the chances suggest.

LDDDDLDDLD last 10 scored 6 from 11.6 xG conceded 12 from 17.5 xG

Finishing swings far more than chance creation, so a gap this size usually narrows. Over ten matches it is suggestive, not settled — a genuinely elite finisher beats expected goals for years.

What the model said

Model	Home / Draw / Away	Expected goals	Likeliest score	O2.5	BTTS
ai-blend	572221	1.97–1.11	0%	0%	0%
dc-xg	592020	2.12–1.16	2-1 10%	64%	61%

A model whose name ends -oos was produced by the walk-forward backtest: it was fitted only on matches played before this one, so the pick is genuinely out of sample.

Using this section

Every selection the model prices for this fixture, grouped by family — click a heading to open it. Calibrated is the number to read; lift shows how far it sits from what that selection normally does in this league. To compare selections across fixtures instead, use the Radar.

All markets

Every selection below comes from the same scoreline distribution, so they are mutually consistent rather than independently guessed. Calibrated is the model corrected by its own out-of-sample record; lift is how much more likely that is than the selection simply being true in this league anyway.

1X2 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Lyon to win	57.7%	54.1%	45.6%	1.19×	1.85
Nice to win	21.3%	24.4%	31.8%	0.77×	4.09
Draw	21.1%	24.4%	22.8%	1.07×	4.09

1X2 & GG/NG 6

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Lyon & both teams score	30.8%	29.7%	22.0%	1.35×	3.37
Lyon & not both score	26.9%	25.2%	23.7%	1.06×	3.97
Draw & both teams score	17.1%	17.9%	16.4%	1.09×	5.58
Nice & both teams score	12.4%	13.3%	15.9%	0.83×	7.54
Nice & not both score	8.8%	8.4%	16.1%	0.52×	11.92
Draw & not both score	3.9%	4.9%	6.6%	0.74×	20.57

1X2 & Over/Under 18

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Lyon & over 1.5	49.6%	45.2%	35.7%	1.27×	2.21
Lyon & over 2.5	41.2%	40.3%	28.2%	1.43×	2.48
Lyon & under 3.5	32.0%	30.9%	28.9%	1.07×	3.24
Lyon & over 3.5	25.7%	26.0%	16.8%	1.54×	3.84
Lyon & under 2.5	16.5%	18.0%	17.5%	1.03×	5.56
Draw & over 1.5	17.1%	18.0%	16.4%	1.10×	5.56
Nice & over 1.5	16.6%	18.0%	25.6%	0.70×	5.56
Draw & under 2.5	13.5%	12.9%	16.5%	0.78×	7.77
Draw & under 3.5	13.5%	12.9%	16.5%	0.78×	7.77
Nice & over 2.5	13.9%	12.9%	20.0%	0.64×	7.77
Nice & under 3.5	14.0%	12.9%	20.7%	0.62×	7.77
Lyon & under 1.5	8.1%	7.9%	10.0%	0.79×	12.70
Draw & over 2.5	7.6%	7.9%	6.4%	1.23×	12.70
Draw & over 3.5	7.6%	7.9%	6.4%	1.23×	12.70
Nice & under 2.5	7.4%	7.9%	12.0%	0.66×	12.70
Nice & over 3.5	7.2%	7.9%	11.2%	0.70×	12.70
Nice & under 1.5	4.6%	4.8%	6.4%	0.75×	20.93
Draw & under 1.5	3.9%	4.8%	6.6%	0.73×	20.94

1X2 1UP 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Lyon (1UP)	72.1%	75.8%	58.0%	1.31×	1.32
Nice (1UP)	41.2%	39.3%	49.6%	0.79×	2.54

1X2 2UP 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Lyon (2UP)	57.7%	55.2%	47.1%	1.17×	1.81
Nice (2UP)	21.3%	23.6%	34.2%	0.69×	4.24

2nd half 1X2 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Lyon to win 2nd half	51.2%	52.0%	42.1%	1.23×	1.92
2nd half drawn	30.0%	26.4%	31.2%	0.84×	3.79
Nice to win 2nd half	18.8%	19.1%	26.8%	0.71×	5.24

Asian handicap 8

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Nice (+2.5)	82.6%	82.4%	90.0%	0.92×	1.21
Lyon (+0.5)	78.7%	78.4%	68.2%	1.15×	1.28
Nice (+1.5)	65.1%	68.7%	75.0%	0.92×	1.46
Lyon (-0.5)	57.7%	57.0%	45.6%	1.25×	1.75
Nice (+0.5)	42.3%	43.0%	54.4%	0.79×	2.33
Lyon (-1.5)	34.9%	31.3%	25.0%	1.25×	3.19
Nice (-0.5)	21.3%	21.6%	31.8%	0.68×	4.64
Lyon (-2.5)	17.4%	17.6%	10.0%	1.76×	5.69

Away clean sheet 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Nice to concede	87.2%	86.4%	77.5%	1.12×	1.16
Nice clean sheet	12.8%	13.6%	22.5%	0.60×	7.38

Away clean sheet 1HT 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Nice to concede in 1st half	55.7%	58.4%	47.7%	1.22×	1.71
Nice clean sheet in 1st half	44.3%	41.6%	52.3%	0.80×	2.40

Away corners O/U 10

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Nice over 2.5 corners	78.3%	75.9%	—	—	1.32
Nice under 6.5 corners	74.0%	71.6%	—	—	1.40
Nice over 3.5 corners	64.1%	61.8%	—	—	1.62
Nice under 5.5 corners	63.3%	61.8%	—	—	1.62
Nice under 4.5 corners	50.3%	53.1%	—	—	1.88
Nice over 4.5 corners	49.7%	46.9%	—	—	2.13
Nice over 5.5 corners	36.7%	38.2%	—	—	2.62
Nice under 3.5 corners	35.9%	38.2%	—	—	2.62
Nice over 6.5 corners	26.0%	28.4%	—	—	3.52
Nice under 2.5 corners	21.7%	24.1%	—	—	4.16

Away goals O/U 8

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Nice under 3.5 goals	96.8%	97.5%	93.4%	1.04×	1.03
Nice under 2.5 goals	88.5%	87.9%	84.6%	1.04×	1.14
Nice over 0.5 goals	69.2%	68.0%	69.9%	0.97×	1.47
Nice under 1.5 goals	67.1%	68.0%	63.2%	1.08×	1.47
Nice over 1.5 goals	32.9%	32.0%	36.8%	0.87×	3.12
Nice under 0.5 goals	30.8%	32.0%	30.1%	1.06×	3.12
Nice over 2.5 goals	11.5%	12.1%	15.4%	0.78×	8.26
Nice over 3.5 goals	3.2%	2.5%	6.6%	0.37×	40.71

Away goals O/U 1HT 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Nice under 1.5 in 1st half	89.5%	89.2%	87.2%	1.02×	1.12
Nice under 0.5 in 1st half	57.9%	62.4%	57.3%	1.09×	1.60
Nice over 0.5 in 1st half	42.1%	37.6%	42.7%	0.88×	2.66
Nice over 1.5 in 1st half	10.5%	10.8%	12.8%	0.85×	9.23

Away no bet 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Lyon (away no bet)	73.3%	68.6%	66.7%	1.03×	1.46
Draw (away no bet)	26.7%	31.4%	33.3%	0.94×	3.18

Away Odd/Even 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Nice even goals	54.8%	52.8%	56.3%	0.94×	1.89
Nice odd goals	45.2%	47.2%	43.7%	1.08×	2.12

Both halves O1.5 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Not both halves over 1.5	78.0%	82.2%	83.0%	0.99×	1.22
Both halves over 1.5 goals	22.0%	17.8%	17.0%	1.05×	5.62

Both halves U1.5 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Not both halves under 1.5	73.3%	67.3%	65.5%	1.03×	1.49
Both halves under 1.5 goals	26.7%	32.7%	34.5%	0.95×	3.06

Consecutive goals 6

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Either team to score 2+ in a row	65.9%	62.1%	60.2%	1.03×	1.61
Lyon to score 2+ in a row	51.9%	51.3%	38.1%	1.35×	1.95
Either team to score 3+ in a row	28.6%	25.1%	22.6%	1.11×	3.99
Lyon to score 3+ in a row	23.6%	19.6%	14.0%	1.39×	5.11
Nice to score 2+ in a row	22.5%	19.5%	28.1%	0.70×	5.12
Nice to score 3+ in a row	5.5%	5.6%	9.2%	0.61×	17.84

Corner handicap 12

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Lyon corners (+3.5)	89.2%	84.5%	—	—	1.18
Lyon corners (+2.5)	84.6%	79.7%	—	—	1.25
Lyon corners (+1.5)	78.8%	74.9%	—	—	1.34
Nice corners (+3.5)	61.8%	61.9%	—	—	1.62
Lyon corners (-1.5)	55.2%	57.1%	—	—	1.75
Nice corners (+2.5)	53.5%	52.5%	—	—	1.91
Lyon corners (-2.5)	46.5%	47.5%	—	—	2.10
Nice corners (+1.5)	44.8%	42.9%	—	—	2.33
Lyon corners (-3.5)	38.2%	38.1%	—	—	2.63
Nice corners (-1.5)	21.2%	25.1%	—	—	3.98
Nice corners (-2.5)	15.4%	20.3%	—	—	4.94
Nice corners (-3.5)	10.8%	15.5%	—	—	6.46

Corner range 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
12+ corners	50.9%	45.2%	—	—	2.22
9-11 corners	24.7%	25.6%	—	—	3.90
0-8 corners	24.5%	25.6%	—	—	3.90

Corners O/U 12

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Over 7.5 corners	82.6%	80.8%	—	—	1.24
Over 8.5 corners	75.5%	76.5%	—	—	1.31
Over 9.5 corners	67.6%	67.7%	—	—	1.48
Over 10.5 corners	59.3%	57.8%	—	—	1.73
Under 12.5 corners	57.2%	57.8%	—	—	1.73
Over 11.5 corners	50.9%	53.3%	—	—	1.88
Under 11.5 corners	49.1%	46.7%	—	—	2.14
Over 12.5 corners	42.8%	42.2%	—	—	2.37
Under 10.5 corners	40.7%	42.2%	—	—	2.37
Under 9.5 corners	32.4%	32.3%	—	—	3.10
Under 8.5 corners	24.5%	23.5%	—	—	4.26
Under 7.5 corners	17.4%	19.2%	—	—	5.20

Corners Odd/Even 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Odd number of corners	50.0%	50.2%	—	—	1.99
Even number of corners	50.0%	49.8%	—	—	2.01

Correct score 26

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
1-1	9.5%	7.4%	10.1%	0.73×	13.48
2-0	8.3%	7.4%	7.6%	0.97×	13.48
2-1	9.8%	7.4%	8.0%	0.93×	13.48
3-1	6.7%	7.4%	6.2%	1.19×	13.48
1-0	8.1%	7.4%	10.0%	0.74×	13.48
1-2	5.6%	7.4%	6.6%	1.13×	13.48
2-2	5.8%	7.4%	4.8%	1.53×	13.48
3-0	5.7%	7.4%	3.7%	1.98×	13.48
Any other score	6.5%	7.4%	5.1%	1.44×	13.48
1-3	2.2%	1.7%	3.4%	0.50×	58.48
1-4	0.6%	1.7%	1.6%	1.10×	58.49
2-3	2.3%	1.7%	1.9%	0.91×	58.48
2-4	0.7%	1.7%	0.8%	2.19×	58.49
3-2	4.0%	1.7%	2.8%	0.61×	58.47
3-3	1.6%	1.7%	1.6%	1.10×	58.48
3-4	0.5%	1.7%	0.8%	2.19×	58.49
4-0	2.9%	1.7%	1.7%	1.00×	58.47
4-1	3.5%	1.7%	2.0%	0.84×	58.47
4-2	2.0%	1.7%	1.6%	1.10×	58.48
4-3	0.8%	1.7%	0.3%	5.48×	58.49
4-4	0.2%	1.7%	0.3%	5.48×	58.49
0-0	3.9%	1.7%	6.6%	0.26×	58.47
0-1	4.6%	1.7%	6.4%	0.27×	58.46
0-2	2.7%	1.7%	5.8%	0.30×	58.47
0-3	1.1%	1.7%	2.5%	0.69×	58.48
0-4	0.3%	1.7%	1.6%	1.10×	58.49

DNB half time 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Lyon leading at HT (DNB)	63.2%	65.9%	53.2%	1.24×	1.52
Nice leading at HT (DNB)	36.8%	34.1%	46.8%	0.73×	2.94

Double chance 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Lyon or Nice (12)	78.9%	75.6%	77.2%	0.98×	1.32
Lyon or draw (1X)	78.7%	75.6%	68.2%	1.11×	1.32
Nice or draw (X2)	42.3%	45.9%	54.4%	0.84×	2.18

Double chance 1HT 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Lyon or draw at HT	77.3%	79.9%	71.1%	1.12×	1.25
Lyon or Nice at HT	61.6%	62.1%	61.5%	1.01×	1.61
Nice or draw at HT	61.1%	62.1%	67.2%	0.92×	1.61

Double chance 1UP 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Lyon or draw (1UP)	78.7%	84.1%	72.5%	1.16×	1.19
Nice or draw (1UP)	42.3%	52.6%	62.2%	0.85×	1.90

Double chance 2HT 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Lyon or draw in 2nd half	81.2%	80.9%	73.2%	1.11×	1.24
Lyon or Nice in 2nd half	70.0%	73.6%	68.8%	1.07×	1.36
Nice or draw in 2nd half	48.8%	48.0%	57.9%	0.83×	2.08

Draw either half 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
A half drawn	56.9%	58.0%	56.8%	1.02×	1.72
Neither half drawn	43.1%	42.0%	43.2%	0.97×	2.38

Draw no bet 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Lyon (DNB)	73.1%	71.4%	58.9%	1.21×	1.40
Nice (DNB)	26.9%	28.6%	41.1%	0.69×	3.50

First goal 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Lyon to score first	61.1%	64.4%	49.3%	1.31×	1.55
Nice to score first	34.9%	27.4%	44.3%	0.62×	3.65
No goal scored	3.9%	4.3%	6.6%	0.66×	23.29

GG/NG 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Both teams to score	60.3%	56.5%	54.0%	1.05×	1.77
Not both teams to score	39.7%	43.5%	46.0%	0.95×	2.30

GG/NG & Over/Under 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Both score & over 2.5	50.8%	47.0%	44.0%	1.07×	2.13
Not both score & under 2.5	27.7%	33.6%	35.7%	0.94×	2.98
Not both score & over 2.5	11.9%	12.3%	10.5%	1.18×	8.11
Both score & under 2.5	9.5%	8.4%	10.1%	0.83×	11.95

GG/NG 2+ 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Not both teams to score 2+	80.0%	80.0%	84.7%	0.94×	1.25
Both teams to score 2+	20.0%	20.0%	15.3%	1.31×	5.00

GG/NG 2nd half 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Not both to score in 2nd half	66.7%	67.6%	69.9%	0.97×	1.48
Both teams to score in 2nd half	33.3%	32.4%	30.1%	1.08×	3.08

GG/NG by half 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Neither half both score	51.1%	55.8%	57.4%	0.97×	1.79
Both score 2nd half only	25.5%	26.5%	23.7%	1.12×	3.78
Both score 1st half only	15.6%	15.6%	12.6%	1.23×	6.43
Both score in both halves	7.8%	6.8%	6.6%	1.04×	14.71

GG/NG half time 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Not both to score by HT	76.6%	81.5%	81.0%	1.01×	1.23
Both teams to score by HT	23.4%	18.5%	19.0%	0.97×	5.39

Goal in both halves 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
A goal in each half	62.9%	58.9%	59.4%	0.99×	1.70
A half without a goal	37.1%	41.1%	40.6%	1.01×	2.43

Goal range 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
2-3 goals	42.8%	42.1%	43.4%	0.97×	2.38
4-6 goals	35.9%	35.0%	30.7%	1.14×	2.85
0-1 goals	16.7%	20.2%	22.6%	0.89×	4.96
7+ goals	4.6%	1.8%	3.6%	0.51×	54.32

Goals away 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Nice to score exactly 1	36.3%	36.0%	33.2%	1.08×	2.78
Nice to score exactly 0	30.8%	33.8%	30.1%	1.12×	2.96
Nice to score exactly 2	21.3%	22.4%	21.5%	1.04×	4.47
Nice to score 3+	11.5%	12.8%	15.4%	0.83×	7.81

Goals home 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Lyon to score 3+	33.9%	32.7%	22.9%	1.42×	3.06
Lyon to score exactly 2	27.1%	26.5%	23.1%	1.15×	3.77
Lyon to score exactly 1	26.3%	26.5%	31.8%	0.83×	3.77
Lyon to score exactly 0	12.8%	14.3%	22.5%	0.64×	6.98

Half time 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Lyon leading at HT	38.9%	38.0%	32.8%	1.16×	2.64
Draw at HT	38.4%	37.9%	38.5%	0.98×	2.64
Nice leading at HT	22.7%	20.1%	28.9%	0.70×	4.96

Handicap 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Lyon -1: 2	42.3%	42.8%	—	—	2.34
Lyon -1: 1	34.9%	30.1%	—	—	3.32
Lyon -1: X	22.8%	23.6%	—	—	4.24

Handicap 0:1 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Nice (0:1)	42.3%	42.7%	54.4%	0.78×	2.34
Lyon (0:1)	34.9%	30.1%	25.0%	1.21×	3.32
Draw (0:1)	22.8%	24.3%	20.7%	1.17×	4.12

Handicap 0:2 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Nice (0:2)	65.1%	72.1%	75.0%	0.96×	1.39
Lyon (0:2)	17.4%	15.3%	10.0%	1.53×	6.54
Draw (0:2)	17.5%	15.3%	15.1%	1.01×	6.54

Handicap 0:3 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Nice (0:3)	82.6%	85.1%	90.0%	0.95×	1.18
Draw (0:3)	10.2%	10.0%	6.1%	1.64×	10.03
Lyon (0:3)	7.3%	5.8%	4.1%	1.44×	17.16

Handicap 0:4 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Nice (0:4)	92.7%	94.7%	95.9%	0.99×	1.06
Draw (0:4)	4.7%	1.2%	2.7%	0.45×	83.13
Lyon (0:4)	2.6%	1.2%	1.6%	0.77×	83.38

Handicap 1:0 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Lyon (1:0)	78.7%	78.4%	68.2%	1.15×	1.28
Draw (1:0)	13.0%	12.8%	15.1%	0.85×	7.80
Nice (1:0)	8.2%	6.9%	16.8%	0.41×	14.43

Handicap 2:0 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Lyon (2:0)	91.8%	93.9%	83.2%	1.13×	1.07
Draw (2:0)	5.7%	6.4%	9.8%	0.66×	15.51
Nice (2:0)	2.5%	2.3%	7.2%	0.32×	44.21

Highest scoring half 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
2nd half highest scoring	49.5%	48.2%	47.3%	1.02×	2.08
1st half highest scoring	27.9%	26.5%	26.8%	0.99×	3.77
Halves equal	22.5%	24.1%	26.1%	0.92×	4.15

Home clean sheet 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Lyon to concede	69.2%	66.6%	69.9%	0.95×	1.50
Lyon clean sheet	30.8%	33.4%	30.1%	1.11×	2.99

Home clean sheet 1HT 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Lyon clean sheet in 1st half	57.9%	62.4%	57.3%	1.09×	1.60
Lyon to concede in 1st half	42.1%	37.6%	42.7%	0.88×	2.66

Home corners O/U 10

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Lyon over 2.5 corners	91.0%	89.3%	—	—	1.12
Lyon over 3.5 corners	83.1%	80.9%	—	—	1.24
Lyon over 4.5 corners	73.2%	71.9%	—	—	1.39
Lyon over 5.5 corners	62.5%	62.3%	—	—	1.61
Lyon over 6.5 corners	51.6%	52.8%	—	—	1.90
Lyon under 6.5 corners	48.4%	47.2%	—	—	2.12
Lyon under 5.5 corners	37.5%	37.7%	—	—	2.65
Lyon under 4.5 corners	26.8%	28.1%	—	—	3.56
Lyon under 3.5 corners	16.9%	19.1%	—	—	5.25
Lyon under 2.5 corners	9.0%	10.7%	—	—	9.36

Home goals O/U 8

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Lyon over 0.5 goals	87.2%	87.3%	77.5%	1.13×	1.15
Lyon under 3.5 goals	84.7%	82.1%	91.7%	0.90×	1.22
Lyon under 2.5 goals	66.1%	67.9%	77.1%	0.88×	1.47
Lyon over 1.5 goals	61.0%	63.5%	45.9%	1.38×	1.58
Lyon under 1.5 goals	39.0%	36.5%	54.1%	0.67×	2.74
Lyon over 2.5 goals	33.9%	32.1%	22.9%	1.40×	3.11
Lyon over 3.5 goals	15.3%	17.9%	8.3%	2.16×	5.59
Lyon under 0.5 goals	12.8%	12.7%	22.5%	0.57×	7.85

Home goals O/U 1HT 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Lyon under 1.5 in 1st half	80.4%	84.1%	87.4%	0.96×	1.19
Lyon over 0.5 in 1st half	55.7%	58.0%	47.7%	1.22×	1.72
Lyon under 0.5 in 1st half	44.3%	42.0%	52.3%	0.80×	2.38
Lyon over 1.5 in 1st half	19.6%	15.9%	12.6%	1.26×	6.30

Home no bet 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Nice (home no bet)	50.2%	51.6%	58.3%	0.89×	1.94
Draw (home no bet)	49.8%	48.4%	41.7%	1.16×	2.07

Home Odd/Even 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Lyon even goals	50.8%	50.6%	51.3%	0.99×	1.98
Lyon odd goals	49.2%	49.4%	48.7%	1.01×	2.03

HT correct score 10

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
HT 0-0	25.7%	28.8%	28.5%	1.01×	3.48
HT 1-0	20.9%	24.1%	21.1%	1.14×	4.15
HT 0-1	14.0%	10.9%	16.8%	0.65×	9.14
HT 1-1	11.4%	10.9%	9.5%	1.15×	9.16
HT 2-0	8.5%	7.1%	6.6%	1.09×	14.03
Any other HT score	6.7%	7.1%	4.7%	1.52×	14.06
HT 2-1	4.6%	2.3%	3.3%	0.71×	43.27
HT 0-2	3.8%	2.3%	5.5%	0.42×	43.33
HT 1-2	3.1%	2.3%	4.5%	0.51×	43.38
HT 2-2	1.3%	2.3%	0.8%	2.95×	43.52

HT/FT 9

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Lyon at HT / Lyon at FT	33.5%	33.0%	27.5%	1.20×	3.04
Draw at HT / Lyon at FT	19.7%	16.8%	14.8%	1.13×	5.96
Nice at HT / Nice at FT	12.7%	12.7%	19.3%	0.66×	7.89
Draw at HT / Draw at FT	11.5%	12.7%	12.9%	0.98×	7.90
Draw at HT / Nice at FT	7.2%	6.0%	11.1%	0.54×	16.67
Nice at HT / Draw at FT	5.5%	6.0%	6.2%	0.96×	16.72
Nice at HT / Lyon at FT	4.5%	3.5%	3.6%	0.97×	28.79
Lyon at HT / Draw at FT	4.0%	3.5%	3.9%	0.89×	28.81
Lyon at HT / Nice at FT	1.3%	3.5%	1.7%	2.02×	28.91

Last goal 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Lyon to score last	61.1%	61.9%	53.2%	1.16×	1.62
Nice to score last	34.9%	33.1%	40.4%	0.82×	3.02
No goal scored	3.9%	4.3%	6.6%	0.66×	23.29

Lead at any time 9

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Either team to lead by 1 at any time	96.1%	95.6%	93.4%	1.02×	1.05
Lyon to lead by 1 at any time	72.1%	74.2%	58.0%	1.28×	1.35
Either team to lead by 2 at any time	56.2%	55.1%	51.3%	1.07×	1.82
Lyon to lead by 2 at any time	42.6%	39.3%	29.5%	1.33×	2.55
Nice to lead by 1 at any time	41.2%	39.2%	49.6%	0.79×	2.55
Either team to lead by 3 at any time	24.7%	19.7%	20.1%	0.98×	5.09
Lyon to lead by 3 at any time	20.8%	19.6%	11.9%	1.65×	5.11
Nice to lead by 2 at any time	13.9%	10.5%	22.0%	0.48×	9.52
Nice to lead by 3 at any time	3.9%	1.7%	8.4%	0.20×	60.48

Most corners 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Lyon most corners	63.8%	60.5%	—	—	1.65
Nice most corners	28.2%	31.0%	—	—	3.23
Corners level	8.0%	8.5%	—	—	11.81

Multi goal 15

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
1-5 goals	85.1%	87.4%	85.0%	1.03×	1.14
2-6 goals	78.7%	78.6%	73.9%	1.06×	1.27
1-4 goals	73.5%	72.4%	76.4%	0.95×	1.38
2-5 goals	72.4%	72.4%	69.0%	1.05×	1.38
2-4 goals	60.8%	63.4%	60.4%	1.05×	1.58
3-6 goals	58.1%	59.2%	50.9%	1.16×	1.69
1-3 goals	55.6%	59.2%	59.4%	1.00×	1.69
3-5 goals	51.8%	53.2%	45.9%	1.16×	1.88
2-3 goals	42.8%	43.6%	43.4%	1.00×	2.30
3-4 goals	40.2%	43.6%	37.3%	1.17×	2.30
4-6 goals	35.9%	39.1%	30.7%	1.27×	2.56
1-2 goals	33.3%	35.4%	39.3%	0.90×	2.83
4-5 goals	29.6%	30.3%	25.7%	1.18×	3.31
5-6 goals	17.9%	18.6%	13.7%	1.36×	5.37
7+ goals	4.6%	2.6%	3.6%	0.71×	39.12

Never down 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Lyon never behind	54.9%	62.1%	50.4%	1.23×	1.61
Nice never behind	24.0%	24.5%	42.0%	0.58×	4.08

Odd/Even 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Odd number of goals	49.9%	50.8%	47.3%	1.08×	1.97
Even number of goals	50.1%	49.2%	52.7%	0.93×	2.03

Odd/Even 1HT 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Even goals in 1st half	53.3%	51.7%	51.6%	1.00×	1.94
Odd goals in 1st half	46.7%	48.3%	48.4%	1.00×	2.07

Odd/Even 2HT 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Even goals in 2nd half	51.2%	52.0%	49.5%	1.05×	1.92
Odd goals in 2nd half	48.8%	48.0%	50.5%	0.95×	2.09

Over/Under 12

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Over 0.5 goals	96.1%	95.5%	93.4%	1.02×	1.05
Under 5.5 goals	89.1%	87.7%	91.4%	0.96×	1.14
Over 1.5 goals	83.3%	82.4%	77.4%	1.06×	1.21
Under 4.5 goals	77.5%	77.3%	82.8%	0.93×	1.29
Over 2.5 goals	62.7%	61.8%	54.3%	1.14×	1.62
Under 3.5 goals	59.5%	58.9%	65.8%	0.89×	1.70
Over 3.5 goals	40.5%	41.2%	34.2%	1.20×	2.43
Under 2.5 goals	37.3%	38.2%	45.7%	0.84×	2.62
Over 4.5 goals	22.5%	22.7%	17.2%	1.32×	4.41
Under 1.5 goals	16.7%	17.6%	22.6%	0.78×	5.68
Over 5.5 goals	10.9%	12.3%	8.6%	1.44×	8.10
Under 0.5 goals	3.9%	4.5%	6.6%	0.69×	22.20

Over/Under (whole line) 10

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Under 6 (void on exactly 6)	95.0%	97.2%	96.2%	1.01×	1.03
Under 5 (void on exactly 5)	87.7%	86.7%	90.6%	0.96×	1.15
Over 2 (void on exactly 2)	79.0%	75.9%	70.6%	1.08×	1.32
Under 4 (void on exactly 4)	72.5%	72.6%	79.3%	0.91×	1.38
Over 3 (void on exactly 3)	52.1%	51.8%	42.8%	1.21×	1.93
Under 3 (void on exactly 3)	47.9%	48.2%	57.2%	0.84×	2.08
Over 4 (void on exactly 4)	27.5%	27.4%	20.7%	1.33×	3.65
Under 2 (void on exactly 2)	21.0%	24.1%	29.4%	0.82×	4.16
Over 5 (void on exactly 5)	12.3%	13.3%	9.4%	1.41×	7.54
Over 6 (void on exactly 6)	5.0%	2.8%	3.8%	0.73×	36.07

Over/Under 1HT 6

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Under 2.5 in 1st half	84.3%	86.3%	87.2%	0.99×	1.16
Over 0.5 in 1st half	74.3%	71.3%	71.5%	1.00×	1.40
Under 1.5 in 1st half	60.6%	63.6%	66.1%	0.96×	1.57
Over 1.5 in 1st half	39.4%	36.4%	33.9%	1.08×	2.75
Under 0.5 in 1st half	25.7%	28.7%	28.5%	1.01×	3.48
Over 2.5 in 1st half	15.7%	13.7%	12.8%	1.07×	7.31

Over/Under 2HT 6

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Over 0.5 in 2nd half	84.7%	82.9%	81.4%	1.02×	1.21
Under 2.5 in 2nd half	71.1%	77.6%	75.4%	1.03×	1.29
Over 1.5 in 2nd half	55.9%	54.8%	48.7%	1.13×	1.83
Under 1.5 in 2nd half	44.1%	45.2%	51.3%	0.88×	2.21
Over 2.5 in 2nd half	28.9%	22.4%	24.6%	0.91×	4.47
Under 0.5 in 2nd half	15.4%	17.1%	18.6%	0.92×	5.84

Score both halves 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Nice not to score in both halves	80.3%	84.2%	77.4%	1.09×	1.19
Lyon not to score in both halves	60.4%	63.3%	68.0%	0.93×	1.58
Lyon to score in both halves	39.7%	36.7%	32.0%	1.15×	2.72
Nice to score in both halves	19.7%	15.8%	22.6%	0.70×	6.33

Teams to score 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Both teams score	60.3%	60.2%	54.0%	1.11×	1.66
Only Lyon scores	26.9%	26.1%	23.7%	1.10×	3.83
Only Nice scores	8.8%	7.2%	16.1%	0.45×	13.90
Neither team scores	3.9%	4.6%	6.6%	0.70×	21.82

Total goals 7

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Exactly 3 goals	22.2%	22.6%	20.3%	1.11×	4.42
Exactly 2 goals	20.6%	22.6%	23.2%	0.97×	4.42
Exactly 4 goals	18.0%	17.4%	17.2%	1.02×	5.74
Exactly 1 goals	12.7%	12.1%	16.2%	0.75×	8.27
Exactly 5 goals	11.6%	12.1%	8.7%	1.38×	8.28
6 or more goals	10.9%	12.1%	8.6%	1.41×	8.28
Exactly 0 goals	3.9%	4.4%	6.6%	0.67×	22.66

Total goals 2nd half 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
2+ goals in 2nd half	55.9%	53.3%	48.7%	1.09×	1.88
1 goal in 2nd half	28.8%	29.9%	32.9%	0.91×	3.35
No goals in 2nd half	15.4%	17.1%	18.6%	0.92×	5.86

Win both halves 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Nice not to win both halves	95.7%	97.2%	90.6%	1.07×	1.03
Lyon not to win both halves	80.1%	84.0%	83.3%	1.01×	1.19
Lyon to win both halves	19.9%	16.0%	16.7%	0.96×	6.27
Nice to win both halves	4.3%	2.8%	9.4%	0.30×	35.45

Win either half 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Lyon to win either half	70.2%	72.8%	58.2%	1.25×	1.37
Nice to win neither half	62.8%	65.1%	53.7%	1.21×	1.54
Nice to win either half	37.2%	34.9%	46.3%	0.75×	2.86
Lyon to win neither half	29.8%	27.2%	41.8%	0.65×	3.67

Win to nil 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Nice not to win to nil	91.2%	92.0%	83.9%	1.10×	1.09
Lyon not to win to nil	73.1%	75.3%	76.3%	0.99×	1.33
Lyon to win to nil	26.9%	24.7%	23.7%	1.04×	4.05
Nice to win to nil	8.8%	8.0%	16.1%	0.50×	12.54

Winning margin 7

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Lyon by 1	22.8%	24.1%	20.7%	1.16×	4.14
Draw	21.1%	24.1%	22.8%	1.06×	4.14
Lyon by 2	17.5%	16.9%	15.1%	1.12×	5.91
Lyon by 3+	17.4%	16.9%	10.0%	1.70×	5.91
Nice by 1	13.0%	11.8%	15.1%	0.78×	8.47
Nice by 2	5.7%	7.3%	9.8%	0.74×	13.79
Nice by 3+	2.5%	2.7%	7.2%	0.38×	37.00