Macará v Emelec — Prediction, Odds & Stats

Sunday 13 September 2026 · ECU-LigaPro · 2627

ECU-LigaPro results-only Prediction generated 5 Sep 2026, 14:39

Macará

14:00

Emelec

AI prediction

ai-blend v1.0 daily Priced 6 Sep, 07:53 · 178h before kick-off

Macará win

59.2%

model 59.5%

Draw

21.5%

model 22.2%

Emelec win

19.3%

model 18.3%

592119

Calibrated: the model's number corrected by how often calls at that confidence have landed, out of sample (282 settled matches in the thinnest band), then normalised. The smaller figure is the raw model output.

Top 5 scorelines

1-0 12.9%
2-0 11.2%
1-1 10.5%
2-1 9.8%
3-0 6.7%

Goals

Over 2.5	49.7%	Under 2.5	50.3%
BTTS yes	48.1%	BTTS no	51.9%
Macará 1+	83.3%	Macará 2+	53.4%
Emelec 1+	58.1%	Emelec 2+	21.7%

Expected goals 1.79 – 0.87. Every market above is read off one scoreline distribution.

Footing

AI confidence

79/100

Data quality

65/100

Model agreement

98%

★ Best pick

Macará over 1.5 goals

Home goals O/U · usually 39%

52.7% fair odds 1.90

strong signal · 687 settled matches behind the band

★ Most likely to land

Macará or draw (1UP)

Double chance 1UP

84.0% fair odds 1.19

moderate signal · 419 settled matches behind the band

Positive factors

Macará carry the stronger rating, 1647 Elo against 1516.
Form is good: 2.00 points a match from the last five.

Risk factors

No specific risk flags beyond the usual variance of a football match.

Why the model thinks this

The price

Macará have an estimated 59.2% win probability, against 21.5% for the draw and 19.3% for Emelec. Expected goals from the ensemble are 1.79 for Macará and 0.87 for Emelec.

Why Macará

Macará carry the stronger rating, 1647 Elo against 1516. Form is good: 2.00 points a match from the last five.

Why the draw is live

The draw sits at 21.5%. Draws run at 26% in this competition.

Why Emelec can win

Nothing in the data singles out Emelec.

Key players

No player-level data for this fixture; the leagues with lineups are the big five.

Availability

No lineup on record for Macará, so availability is unknown. No lineup on record for Emelec, so availability is unknown.

The matchup, as far as the data reaches

Macará: 45% possession, 15.2 shots a match, 15.0 faced, 0.30 xG a match from set pieces. Emelec: 33% possession, 10.6 shots a match, 9.4 faced, 0.30 xG a match from set pieces.

Inputs last refreshed: matches 2026-09-06 07:42 · team_stats 2026-09-06 06:08 · availability 2026-09-06 07:53 · prediction 2026-09-05 18:39 ·

Macará are the model's most likely outcome at 59.2%. The likeliest scoreline is 1-0 at 12.9%. Confidence 79/100, data quality 65/100. These are probabilities, not certainties: the less likely outcome happens as often as its number says.

Written from the numbers the model saw, not by a language model; nothing here is a statistic the snapshot does not hold. How predictions work.

Was this pick made in advance?

A model whose name ends -oos is out of sample: it was fitted only on matches played before this one, so its pick is a genuine forecast rather than hindsight. Anything without that suffix was fitted on all available data.

What the model said

Model	Home / Draw / Away	Expected goals	Likeliest score	O2.5	BTTS
ai-blend	592218	1.79–0.87	0%	0%	0%
dc-xg	622216	1.78–0.77	1-0 14%	47%	44%

A model whose name ends -oos was produced by the walk-forward backtest: it was fitted only on matches played before this one, so the pick is genuinely out of sample.

Using this section

Every selection the model prices for this fixture, grouped by family — click a heading to open it. Calibrated is the number to read; lift shows how far it sits from what that selection normally does in this league. To compare selections across fixtures instead, use the Radar.

All markets

Every selection below comes from the same scoreline distribution, so they are mutually consistent rather than independently guessed. Calibrated is the model corrected by its own out-of-sample record; lift is how much more likely that is than the selection simply being true in this league anyway.

1X2 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Macará to win	61.6%	58.1%	44.2%	1.31×	1.72
Draw	22.1%	24.4%	26.4%	0.93×	4.09
Emelec to win	16.3%	19.3%	29.6%	0.65×	5.18

1X2 & GG/NG 6

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Macará & not both score	38.7%	33.2%	25.5%	1.30×	3.01
Macará & both teams score	23.0%	21.9%	19.0%	1.15×	4.57
Draw & both teams score	14.7%	13.3%	18.6%	0.71×	7.55
Emelec & not both score	9.5%	8.4%	18.0%	0.46×	11.94
Draw & not both score	7.4%	8.4%	8.0%	1.05×	11.95
Emelec & both teams score	6.8%	8.4%	11.7%	0.71×	11.95

1X2 & Over/Under 18

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Macará & over 1.5	47.4%	45.2%	32.2%	1.41×	2.21
Macará & under 3.5	43.4%	40.3%	33.3%	1.21×	2.48
Macará & over 2.5	35.1%	34.9%	24.5%	1.42×	2.87
Macará & under 2.5	26.6%	26.0%	19.9%	1.31×	3.84
Macará & over 3.5	18.3%	18.0%	11.2%	1.61×	5.56
Draw & under 2.5	17.8%	18.0%	22.1%	0.81×	5.56
Draw & under 3.5	17.8%	18.0%	22.1%	0.81×	5.56
Draw & over 1.5	14.7%	12.9%	18.6%	0.69×	7.77
Macará & under 1.5	14.2%	12.9%	12.3%	1.05×	7.77
Emelec & under 3.5	13.5%	12.9%	22.3%	0.58×	7.77
Emelec & over 1.5	9.9%	7.9%	19.1%	0.41×	12.69
Emelec & under 2.5	8.7%	7.9%	15.1%	0.52×	12.69
Draw & under 1.5	7.4%	7.9%	8.0%	0.99×	12.69
Emelec & over 2.5	7.5%	7.9%	14.7%	0.54×	12.69
Emelec & under 1.5	6.4%	7.9%	10.6%	0.74×	12.69
Draw & over 2.5	4.3%	4.8%	4.5%	1.07×	20.93
Draw & over 3.5	4.3%	4.8%	4.5%	1.07×	20.93
Emelec & over 3.5	2.8%	4.8%	7.4%	0.64×	20.94

1X2 1UP 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Macará (1UP)	72.1%	75.6%	—	—	1.32
Emelec (1UP)	31.5%	32.6%	—	—	3.06

1X2 2UP 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Macará (2UP)	61.6%	67.8%	—	—	1.48
Emelec (2UP)	16.3%	17.1%	—	—	5.84

2nd half 1X2 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Macará to win 2nd half	48.6%	45.9%	—	—	2.18
2nd half drawn	34.6%	34.5%	—	—	2.90
Emelec to win 2nd half	16.8%	19.2%	—	—	5.22

Asian handicap 8

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Macará (+0.5)	83.7%	82.4%	70.4%	1.17×	1.21
Emelec (+2.5)	83.6%	82.4%	92.2%	0.89×	1.21
Emelec (+1.5)	64.6%	62.9%	80.5%	0.78×	1.59
Macará (-0.5)	61.6%	62.9%	44.2%	1.42×	1.59
Emelec (+0.5)	38.4%	37.1%	55.8%	0.67×	2.69
Macará (-1.5)	35.4%	37.1%	19.5%	1.90×	2.70
Macará (-2.5)	16.4%	17.6%	7.8%	2.25×	5.69
Emelec (-0.5)	16.3%	17.6%	29.6%	0.60×	5.69

Away clean sheet 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Emelec to concede	83.1%	81.3%	74.2%	1.10×	1.23
Emelec clean sheet	16.9%	18.7%	25.8%	0.72×	5.35

Away clean sheet 1HT 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Emelec clean sheet in 1st half	46.6%	50.8%	—	—	1.97
Emelec to concede in 1st half	53.4%	49.2%	—	—	2.03

Away corners O/U 10

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Emelec under 6.5 corners	92.6%	89.2%	—	—	1.12
Emelec under 5.5 corners	85.8%	84.9%	—	—	1.18
Emelec under 4.5 corners	74.7%	72.4%	—	—	1.38
Emelec over 2.5 corners	61.1%	61.4%	—	—	1.63
Emelec under 3.5 corners	58.7%	56.9%	—	—	1.76
Emelec over 3.5 corners	41.3%	43.1%	—	—	2.32
Emelec under 2.5 corners	38.9%	38.6%	—	—	2.59
Emelec over 4.5 corners	25.3%	27.6%	—	—	3.62
Emelec over 5.5 corners	14.2%	15.1%	—	—	6.62
Emelec over 6.5 corners	7.4%	10.8%	—	—	9.30

Away goals O/U 8

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Emelec under 3.5 goals	99.2%	97.6%	96.8%	1.01×	1.03
Emelec under 2.5 goals	95.6%	97.6%	89.8%	1.09×	1.03
Emelec under 1.5 goals	81.8%	81.5%	73.8%	1.10×	1.23
Emelec over 0.5 goals	53.9%	53.7%	66.7%	0.81×	1.86
Emelec under 0.5 goals	46.1%	46.3%	33.3%	1.39×	2.16
Emelec over 1.5 goals	18.2%	18.5%	26.2%	0.71×	5.40
Emelec over 2.5 goals	4.4%	2.4%	10.2%	0.24×	40.96
Emelec over 3.5 goals	0.8%	2.4%	3.2%	0.77×	41.16

Away goals O/U 1HT 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Emelec under 1.5 in 1st half	96.1%	95.7%	—	—	1.05
Emelec under 0.5 in 1st half	73.4%	69.5%	—	—	1.44
Emelec over 0.5 in 1st half	26.6%	30.5%	—	—	3.28
Emelec over 1.5 in 1st half	3.9%	4.3%	—	—	23.00

Away no bet 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Macará (away no bet)	73.6%	68.6%	62.6%	1.10×	1.46
Draw (away no bet)	26.4%	31.4%	37.4%	0.84×	3.18

Away Odd/Even 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Emelec even goals	60.6%	59.0%	51.7%	1.14×	1.69
Emelec odd goals	39.4%	41.0%	48.3%	0.85×	2.44

Both halves O1.5 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Not both halves over 1.5	87.3%	87.9%	—	—	1.14
Both halves over 1.5 goals	12.7%	12.1%	—	—	8.27

Both halves U1.5 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Not both halves under 1.5	59.7%	60.0%	—	—	1.67
Both halves under 1.5 goals	40.3%	40.0%	—	—	2.50

Consecutive goals 6

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Either team to score 2+ in a row	55.4%	55.3%	—	—	1.81
Macará to score 2+ in a row	46.9%	46.0%	—	—	2.17
Either team to score 3+ in a row	22.3%	19.3%	—	—	5.18
Macará to score 3+ in a row	20.2%	19.3%	—	—	5.19
Emelec to score 2+ in a row	12.3%	12.0%	—	—	8.34
Emelec to score 3+ in a row	2.2%	2.6%	—	—	38.78

Corner handicap 12

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Macará corners (+3.5)	95.5%	94.0%	—	—	1.06
Macará corners (+2.5)	91.8%	88.7%	—	—	1.13
Macará corners (+1.5)	86.1%	84.2%	—	—	1.19
Emelec corners (+3.5)	66.8%	66.8%	—	—	1.50
Macará corners (-1.5)	56.3%	56.8%	—	—	1.76
Emelec corners (+2.5)	55.7%	56.8%	—	—	1.76
Macará corners (-2.5)	44.3%	43.2%	—	—	2.31
Emelec corners (+1.5)	43.7%	43.2%	—	—	2.31
Macará corners (-3.5)	33.2%	33.2%	—	—	3.01
Emelec corners (-1.5)	13.9%	15.8%	—	—	6.31
Emelec corners (-2.5)	8.2%	11.4%	—	—	8.81
Emelec corners (-3.5)	4.5%	6.0%	—	—	16.53

Corner range 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
0-8 corners	50.4%	46.2%	—	—	2.17
9-11 corners	29.1%	31.8%	—	—	3.15
12+ corners	20.5%	26.3%	—	—	3.81

Corners O/U 12

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Under 12.5 corners	85.8%	82.8%	—	—	1.21
Under 11.5 corners	79.5%	76.6%	—	—	1.31
Under 10.5 corners	71.3%	72.5%	—	—	1.38
Under 9.5 corners	61.5%	62.7%	—	—	1.60
Over 7.5 corners	61.3%	62.7%	—	—	1.60
Under 8.5 corners	50.4%	52.2%	—	—	1.91
Over 8.5 corners	49.6%	47.8%	—	—	2.09
Under 7.5 corners	38.7%	37.3%	—	—	2.68
Over 9.5 corners	38.5%	37.3%	—	—	2.68
Over 10.5 corners	28.7%	27.5%	—	—	3.64
Over 11.5 corners	20.5%	23.4%	—	—	4.28
Over 12.5 corners	14.2%	17.2%	—	—	5.80

Corners Odd/Even 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Even number of corners	50.0%	50.4%	—	—	1.98
Odd number of corners	50.0%	49.6%	—	—	2.02

Correct score 26

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
1-0	14.2%	11.5%	12.3%	0.93×	8.73
2-0	12.3%	11.5%	7.8%	1.47×	8.73
1-1	10.4%	11.4%	14.3%	0.80×	8.73
2-1	9.5%	7.4%	10.4%	0.71×	13.46
0-0	7.4%	7.4%	8.0%	0.93×	13.46
3-0	7.3%	7.4%	3.3%	2.22×	13.46
0-1	6.4%	7.4%	10.6%	0.70×	13.46
3-1	5.6%	7.4%	4.1%	1.82×	13.46
0-2	2.3%	1.7%	4.6%	0.37×	58.58
0-3	0.6%	1.7%	1.9%	0.92×	58.59
0-4	0.1%	1.7%	1.1%	1.53×	58.59
1-2	4.2%	1.7%	5.8%	0.30×	58.57
1-3	1.1%	1.7%	2.4%	0.71×	58.59
1-4	0.2%	1.7%	1.1%	1.53×	58.59
2-2	3.7%	1.7%	3.9%	0.44×	58.57
2-3	1.0%	1.7%	2.2%	0.77×	58.59
2-4	0.2%	1.7%	0.7%	2.30×	58.59
3-2	2.2%	1.7%	2.0%	0.83×	58.58
3-3	0.6%	1.7%	0.7%	2.30×	58.59
3-4	0.1%	1.7%	0.2%	9.18×	58.59
4-0	3.2%	1.7%	1.7%	1.02×	58.57
4-1	2.5%	1.7%	1.5%	1.15×	58.58
4-2	1.0%	1.7%	0.4%	4.59×	58.59
4-3	0.3%	1.7%	0.7%	2.30×	58.59
4-4	0.0%	1.7%	0.2%	9.18×	58.59
Any other score	3.6%	1.7%	2.4%	0.71×	58.57

DNB half time 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Macará leading at HT (DNB)	75.8%	77.5%	—	—	1.29
Emelec leading at HT (DNB)	24.2%	22.5%	—	—	4.45

Double chance 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Macará or draw (1X)	83.7%	80.7%	70.4%	1.15×	1.24
Macará or Emelec (12)	77.9%	75.6%	73.6%	1.03×	1.32
Emelec or draw (X2)	38.4%	41.9%	55.8%	0.75×	2.39

Double chance 1HT 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Macará or draw at HT	86.1%	88.1%	—	—	1.14
Macará or Emelec at HT	57.4%	56.8%	—	—	1.76
Emelec or draw at HT	56.5%	56.8%	—	—	1.76

Double chance 1UP 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Macará or draw (1UP)	83.7%	88.6%	—	—	1.13
Emelec or draw (1UP)	38.4%	42.5%	—	—	2.35

Double chance 2HT 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Macará or draw in 2nd half	83.2%	80.8%	—	—	1.24
Macará or Emelec in 2nd half	65.4%	65.5%	—	—	1.53
Emelec or draw in 2nd half	51.4%	54.1%	—	—	1.85

Draw either half 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
A half drawn	62.9%	61.6%	—	—	1.62
Neither half drawn	37.1%	38.4%	—	—	2.60

Draw no bet 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Macará (DNB)	79.1%	74.7%	60.0%	1.25×	1.34
Emelec (DNB)	20.9%	25.3%	40.1%	0.63×	3.96

First goal 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Macará to score first	64.5%	64.5%	—	—	1.55
Emelec to score first	28.1%	28.3%	—	—	3.53
No goal scored	7.4%	7.4%	—	—	13.53

GG/NG 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Not both teams to score	55.6%	54.7%	51.1%	1.07×	1.83
Both teams to score	44.4%	45.3%	48.9%	0.93×	2.21

GG/NG & Over/Under 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Not both score & under 2.5	42.7%	41.5%	42.6%	0.98×	2.41
Both score & over 2.5	34.0%	34.4%	34.8%	0.99×	2.91
Not both score & over 2.5	12.9%	12.3%	8.7%	1.41×	8.11
Both score & under 2.5	10.4%	12.3%	14.3%	0.86×	8.12

GG/NG 2+ 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Not both teams to score 2+	90.4%	89.1%	90.0%	0.99×	1.12
Both teams to score 2+	9.6%	10.9%	10.0%	1.09×	9.16

GG/NG 2nd half 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Not both to score in 2nd half	76.5%	74.9%	—	—	1.33
Both teams to score in 2nd half	23.5%	25.1%	—	—	3.99

GG/NG by half 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Neither half both score	65.7%	62.4%	—	—	1.60
Both score 2nd half only	20.2%	21.0%	—	—	4.75
Both score 1st half only	10.8%	10.5%	—	—	9.56
Both score in both halves	3.4%	4.9%	—	—	20.25

GG/NG half time 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Not both to score by HT	85.8%	85.3%	—	—	1.17
Both teams to score by HT	14.2%	14.7%	—	—	6.80

Goal in both halves 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
A goal in each half	50.6%	53.3%	—	—	1.88
A half without a goal	49.4%	46.7%	—	—	2.14

Goal range 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
2-3 goals	46.6%	47.4%	47.0%	1.01×	2.11
0-1 goals	28.1%	26.4%	30.5%	0.87×	3.78
4-6 goals	23.8%	22.8%	21.4%	1.07×	4.38
7+ goals	1.6%	1.8%	1.5%	1.22×	55.28

Goals away 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Emelec to score exactly 0	46.1%	42.9%	33.3%	1.29×	2.33
Emelec to score exactly 1	35.7%	36.0%	40.7%	0.88×	2.78
Emelec to score exactly 2	13.8%	12.8%	16.2%	0.79×	7.80
Emelec to score 3+	4.4%	4.5%	10.2%	0.44×	22.17

Goals home 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Macará to score exactly 1	30.1%	32.6%	35.1%	0.93×	3.07
Macará to score exactly 2	26.7%	26.5%	24.5%	1.08×	3.77
Macará to score 3+	26.3%	26.5%	14.9%	1.78×	3.77
Macará to score exactly 0	16.9%	18.9%	25.8%	0.73×	5.30

Half time 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Macará leading at HT	43.5%	43.2%	—	—	2.31
Draw at HT	42.6%	43.2%	—	—	2.32
Emelec leading at HT	13.9%	11.9%	—	—	8.39

Handicap 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Macará -1: 2	38.4%	37.4%	—	—	2.68
Macará -1: 1	35.4%	37.3%	—	—	2.68
Macará -1: X	26.2%	26.5%	—	—	3.77

Handicap 0:1 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Emelec (0:1)	38.4%	37.3%	55.8%	0.67×	2.68
Macará (0:1)	35.4%	37.2%	19.5%	1.91×	2.69
Draw (0:1)	26.2%	27.0%	24.9%	1.08×	3.70

Handicap 0:2 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Emelec (0:2)	64.6%	67.3%	80.5%	0.84×	1.49
Draw (0:2)	19.0%	15.3%	11.9%	1.29×	6.52
Macará (0:2)	16.4%	15.3%	7.8%	1.96×	6.53

Handicap 0:3 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Emelec (0:3)	83.6%	85.1%	92.2%	0.92×	1.18
Draw (0:3)	10.2%	10.0%	4.6%	2.15×	10.01
Macará (0:3)	6.2%	5.8%	3.3%	1.73×	17.25

Handicap 0:4 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Emelec (0:4)	93.8%	94.7%	96.7%	0.98×	1.06
Draw (0:4)	4.2%	1.2%	2.2%	0.54×	82.97
Macará (0:4)	2.0%	1.2%	1.3%	0.92×	83.24

Handicap 1:0 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Macará (1:0)	83.7%	81.5%	70.4%	1.16×	1.23
Draw (1:0)	11.6%	12.8%	18.2%	0.70×	7.81
Emelec (1:0)	4.6%	3.2%	11.5%	0.28×	31.34

Handicap 2:0 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Macará (2:0)	95.4%	96.9%	88.5%	1.10×	1.03
Draw (2:0)	3.6%	2.3%	7.4%	0.30×	44.18
Emelec (2:0)	1.0%	2.3%	4.3%	0.53×	44.35

Highest scoring half 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
2nd half highest scoring	46.8%	48.2%	—	—	2.08
1st half highest scoring	27.8%	26.5%	—	—	3.77
Halves equal	25.5%	26.5%	—	—	3.77

Home clean sheet 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Macará to concede	53.9%	53.2%	66.7%	0.80×	1.88
Macará clean sheet	46.1%	46.8%	33.3%	1.41×	2.14

Home clean sheet 1HT 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Macará clean sheet in 1st half	73.4%	68.8%	—	—	1.45
Macará to concede in 1st half	26.6%	31.2%	—	—	3.20

Home corners O/U 10

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Macará over 2.5 corners	86.2%	85.2%	—	—	1.17
Macará over 3.5 corners	73.8%	71.5%	—	—	1.40
Macará under 6.5 corners	68.1%	67.8%	—	—	1.48
Macará over 4.5 corners	59.3%	57.4%	—	—	1.74
Macará under 5.5 corners	55.2%	57.4%	—	—	1.74
Macará over 5.5 corners	44.8%	42.6%	—	—	2.35
Macará under 4.5 corners	40.7%	42.6%	—	—	2.35
Macará over 6.5 corners	31.9%	32.2%	—	—	3.10
Macará under 3.5 corners	26.2%	28.5%	—	—	3.51
Macará under 2.5 corners	13.8%	14.8%	—	—	6.75

Home goals O/U 8

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Macará under 3.5 goals	89.5%	87.2%	94.6%	0.92×	1.15
Macará over 0.5 goals	83.1%	82.1%	74.2%	1.11×	1.22
Macará under 2.5 goals	73.7%	74.2%	85.1%	0.87×	1.35
Macará over 1.5 goals	53.0%	53.3%	39.2%	1.36×	1.88
Macará under 1.5 goals	47.0%	46.7%	60.8%	0.77×	2.14
Macará over 2.5 goals	26.3%	25.8%	14.9%	1.73×	3.88
Macará under 0.5 goals	16.9%	17.9%	25.8%	0.69×	5.60
Macará over 3.5 goals	10.5%	12.8%	5.4%	2.37×	7.84

Home goals O/U 1HT 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Macará under 1.5 in 1st half	82.2%	84.6%	—	—	1.18
Macará under 0.5 in 1st half	46.6%	50.9%	—	—	1.96
Macará over 0.5 in 1st half	53.4%	49.1%	—	—	2.04
Macará over 1.5 in 1st half	17.8%	15.4%	—	—	6.51

Home no bet 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Draw (home no bet)	57.6%	56.7%	47.2%	1.20×	1.76
Emelec (home no bet)	42.4%	43.3%	52.8%	0.82×	2.31

Home Odd/Even 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Macará even goals	51.4%	50.6%	54.3%	0.93×	1.98
Macará odd goals	48.6%	49.4%	45.7%	1.08×	2.03

HT correct score 10

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
HT 0-0	34.1%	32.6%	—	—	3.07
HT 1-0	26.2%	28.6%	—	—	3.50
HT 0-1	10.6%	11.0%	—	—	9.06
HT 2-0	10.0%	7.1%	—	—	14.06
HT 1-1	8.0%	7.1%	—	—	14.09
Any other HT score	4.6%	2.2%	—	—	44.57
HT 2-1	3.1%	2.2%	—	—	44.70
HT 0-2	1.6%	2.2%	—	—	44.81
HT 1-2	1.3%	2.2%	—	—	44.84
HT 2-2	0.5%	2.2%	—	—	44.90

HT/FT 9

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Macará at HT / Macará at FT	38.3%	41.2%	—	—	2.43
Draw at HT / Macará at FT	20.9%	22.1%	—	—	4.53
Draw at HT / Draw at FT	14.4%	12.7%	—	—	7.88
Emelec at HT / Emelec at FT	7.9%	6.0%	—	—	16.56
Draw at HT / Emelec at FT	7.3%	6.0%	—	—	16.57
Macará at HT / Draw at FT	4.1%	3.4%	—	—	29.12
Emelec at HT / Draw at FT	3.6%	3.4%	—	—	29.14
Emelec at HT / Macará at FT	2.4%	3.4%	—	—	29.19
Macará at HT / Emelec at FT	1.0%	3.4%	—	—	29.24

Last goal 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Macará to score last	64.4%	62.5%	—	—	1.60
Emelec to score last	28.2%	27.4%	—	—	3.65
No goal scored	7.4%	7.4%	—	—	13.53

Lead at any time 9

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Either team to lead by 1 at any time	92.6%	92.7%	—	—	1.08
Macará to lead by 1 at any time	72.1%	74.0%	—	—	1.35
Either team to lead by 2 at any time	48.4%	44.0%	—	—	2.27
Macará to lead by 2 at any time	40.8%	39.0%	—	—	2.57
Emelec to lead by 1 at any time	31.5%	29.4%	—	—	3.40
Either team to lead by 3 at any time	20.1%	19.6%	—	—	5.12
Macará to lead by 3 at any time	18.6%	14.9%	—	—	6.69
Emelec to lead by 2 at any time	7.7%	6.5%	—	—	15.31
Emelec to lead by 3 at any time	1.5%	1.6%	—	—	64.41

Most corners 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Macará most corners	67.9%	64.5%	—	—	1.55
Emelec most corners	22.0%	27.1%	—	—	3.70
Corners level	10.2%	10.6%	—	—	9.40

Multi goal 15

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
1-5 goals	88.0%	87.4%	89.0%	0.98×	1.14
1-4 goals	81.0%	83.5%	81.8%	1.02×	1.20
2-6 goals	70.4%	72.4%	68.2%	1.06×	1.38
2-5 goals	67.4%	69.0%	66.5%	1.04×	1.45
1-3 goals	67.2%	69.0%	69.5%	0.99×	1.45
2-4 goals	60.4%	63.5%	59.3%	1.07×	1.58
2-3 goals	46.6%	48.7%	47.0%	1.03×	2.06
1-2 goals	45.7%	48.7%	48.9%	1.00×	2.06
3-6 goals	45.4%	48.7%	42.0%	1.16×	2.06
3-5 goals	42.4%	43.6%	40.3%	1.08×	2.29
3-4 goals	35.4%	39.2%	33.1%	1.18×	2.55
4-6 goals	23.8%	24.5%	21.4%	1.14×	4.09
4-5 goals	20.8%	24.4%	19.7%	1.24×	4.09
5-6 goals	10.0%	14.8%	9.1%	1.63×	6.74
7+ goals	1.6%	2.5%	1.5%	1.70×	39.51

Never down 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Macará never behind	61.1%	67.4%	—	—	1.48
Emelec never behind	20.5%	24.2%	—	—	4.13

Odd/Even 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Even number of goals	49.6%	50.8%	48.5%	1.05×	1.97
Odd number of goals	50.4%	49.2%	51.5%	0.96×	2.03

Odd/Even 1HT 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Even goals in 1st half	55.7%	57.8%	—	—	1.73
Odd goals in 1st half	44.3%	42.2%	—	—	2.37

Odd/Even 2HT 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Even goals in 2nd half	52.4%	52.0%	—	—	1.92
Odd goals in 2nd half	47.6%	48.0%	—	—	2.08

Over/Under 12

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Under 5.5 goals	95.5%	95.5%	96.8%	0.99×	1.05
Over 0.5 goals	92.6%	92.3%	92.0%	1.00×	1.08
Under 4.5 goals	88.4%	87.7%	89.6%	0.98×	1.14
Under 3.5 goals	74.7%	72.6%	77.3%	0.94×	1.38
Over 1.5 goals	71.9%	72.5%	69.5%	1.04×	1.38
Under 2.5 goals	53.1%	52.4%	56.7%	0.92×	1.91
Over 2.5 goals	46.9%	47.6%	43.3%	1.10×	2.10
Under 1.5 goals	28.1%	27.5%	30.5%	0.90×	3.64
Over 3.5 goals	25.3%	27.5%	22.7%	1.21×	3.64
Over 4.5 goals	11.6%	12.3%	10.4%	1.18×	8.11
Under 0.5 goals	7.4%	7.7%	8.0%	0.97×	12.95
Over 5.5 goals	4.5%	4.5%	3.2%	1.43×	22.18

Over/Under (whole line) 10

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Under 6 (void on exactly 6)	98.4%	97.3%	98.5%	0.99×	1.03
Under 5 (void on exactly 5)	95.1%	97.2%	96.6%	1.01×	1.03
Under 4 (void on exactly 4)	86.6%	86.7%	88.1%	0.98×	1.15
Under 3 (void on exactly 3)	67.7%	67.3%	71.4%	0.94×	1.49
Over 2 (void on exactly 2)	62.6%	62.1%	58.7%	1.06×	1.61
Under 2 (void on exactly 2)	37.4%	37.9%	41.3%	0.92×	2.64
Over 3 (void on exactly 3)	32.3%	32.7%	28.6%	1.14×	3.06
Over 4 (void on exactly 4)	13.4%	13.3%	11.9%	1.12×	7.53
Over 5 (void on exactly 5)	4.9%	2.8%	3.4%	0.81×	36.30
Over 6 (void on exactly 6)	1.6%	2.7%	1.5%	1.82×	36.40

Over/Under 1HT 6

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Under 2.5 in 1st half	90.6%	92.7%	—	—	1.08
Under 1.5 in 1st half	70.9%	71.0%	—	—	1.41
Over 0.5 in 1st half	65.9%	69.0%	—	—	1.45
Under 0.5 in 1st half	34.1%	31.0%	—	—	3.22
Over 1.5 in 1st half	29.1%	29.0%	—	—	3.45
Over 2.5 in 1st half	9.4%	7.3%	—	—	13.72

Over/Under 2HT 6

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Under 2.5 in 2nd half	81.5%	82.9%	—	—	1.21
Over 0.5 in 2nd half	77.3%	79.9%	—	—	1.25
Under 1.5 in 2nd half	56.7%	54.9%	—	—	1.82
Over 1.5 in 2nd half	43.3%	45.1%	—	—	2.22
Under 0.5 in 2nd half	22.7%	20.1%	—	—	4.98
Over 2.5 in 2nd half	18.5%	17.1%	—	—	5.84

Score both halves 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Emelec not to score in both halves	90.1%	89.7%	—	—	1.12
Macará not to score in both halves	66.0%	70.0%	—	—	1.43
Macará to score in both halves	34.0%	30.0%	—	—	3.33
Emelec to score in both halves	9.9%	10.3%	—	—	9.73

Teams to score 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Both teams score	44.4%	46.6%	48.9%	0.95×	2.14
Only Macará scores	38.7%	39.9%	25.5%	1.57×	2.51
Only Emelec scores	9.5%	7.2%	18.0%	0.40×	13.92
Neither team scores	7.4%	7.2%	8.0%	0.90×	13.94

Total goals 7

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Exactly 2 goals	25.0%	24.9%	26.4%	0.95×	4.01
Exactly 3 goals	21.6%	22.6%	20.8%	1.09×	4.42
Exactly 1 goals	20.6%	22.6%	22.7%	1.00×	4.42
Exactly 4 goals	13.8%	12.1%	12.5%	0.97×	8.29
Exactly 0 goals	7.4%	7.6%	8.0%	0.95×	13.13
Exactly 5 goals	7.0%	7.6%	7.4%	1.02×	13.14
6 or more goals	4.5%	4.4%	3.2%	1.40×	22.60

Total goals 2nd half 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
2+ goals in 2nd half	43.3%	44.4%	—	—	2.25
1 goal in 2nd half	34.0%	33.9%	—	—	2.95
No goals in 2nd half	22.7%	23.5%	—	—	4.26

Win both halves 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Emelec not to win both halves	97.7%	97.2%	—	—	1.03
Macará not to win both halves	79.0%	75.5%	—	—	1.33
Macará to win both halves	21.0%	24.5%	—	—	4.07
Emelec to win both halves	2.3%	2.8%	—	—	35.78

Win either half 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Emelec to win neither half	71.6%	72.9%	—	—	1.37
Macará to win either half	71.0%	72.9%	—	—	1.37
Macará to win neither half	29.0%	27.1%	—	—	3.69
Emelec to win either half	28.4%	27.1%	—	—	3.69

Win to nil 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Emelec not to win to nil	90.5%	92.0%	82.0%	1.12×	1.09
Macará not to win to nil	61.3%	66.8%	74.5%	0.90×	1.50
Macará to win to nil	38.7%	33.2%	25.5%	1.31×	3.01
Emelec to win to nil	9.5%	8.0%	18.0%	0.44×	12.52

Winning margin 7

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Macará by 1	26.2%	27.8%	24.9%	1.12×	3.59
Draw	22.1%	24.1%	26.4%	0.91×	4.14
Macará by 2	19.0%	16.9%	11.9%	1.42×	5.90
Macará by 3+	16.4%	16.9%	7.8%	2.17×	5.90
Emelec by 1	11.6%	11.8%	18.2%	0.65×	8.46
Emelec by 2	3.6%	2.7%	7.4%	0.36×	36.95
Emelec by 3+	1.0%	2.7%	4.3%	0.63×	37.04