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Mainz 05 v Augsburg — Prediction, Odds & Stats

Saturday 8 February 2025 · GER-Bundesliga · 2425

Bundesliga xG

0–0
2.00 – 0.26 xG
Shots
9 – 8
On target
5 – 2
Shots in box
7 – 4
xG per shot
0.27 – 0.03
Set-piece xG
0.00 – 0.09
Goals − xG
-2.45 – -0.26
Reading the xG timeline
Each step up is a shot; the height of the step is how good the chance was. Dots mark goals. A side whose line climbs steadily created chances all match. A side that scored while its line stayed flat took a rare chance — that is finishing luck, and it rarely repeats.

Expected goals by minute

0.00.71.42.12.70'15'30'45'60'75'90'
Mainz 05 2.45 xGAugsburg 0.26 xG
Reading the shot map
Each circle is a shot, placed where it was taken. Bigger means a better chance; filled circles are goals. Clusters near the goal mean a side worked good openings; lots of small circles far out means shooting from poor positions and hoping. Hover any circle for the player, minute and chance quality.

Shot map

Paul Nebel 1' — Missed Shot (0.06 xG, Open Play)Paul Nebel 5' — Saved Shot (0.30 xG, Open Play)Alexis Claude Maurice 17' — Missed Shot (0.01 xG, Open Play)Marius Wolf 19' — Blocked Shot (0.03 xG, From Corner)Samuel Essende 19' — Missed Shot (0.06 xG, From Corner)Nadiem Amiri 21' — Saved Shot (0.03 xG, Open Play)Nelson Weiper 37' — Saved Shot (0.46 xG, Open Play)Paul Nebel 37' — Blocked Shot (0.06 xG, Open Play)Cédric Zesiger 50' — Missed Shot (0.03 xG, Open Play)Moritz Jenz 50' — Blocked Shot (0.63 xG, Open Play)Nelson Weiper 50' — Saved Shot (0.71 xG, Open Play)Mert Kömür 51' — Saved Shot (0.03 xG, Open Play)Samuel Essende 56' — Missed Shot (0.02 xG, Open Play)Frank Onyeka 65' — Saved Shot (0.05 xG, Open Play)Fredrik Jensen 83' — Missed Shot (0.02 xG, Open Play)Jonathan Burkardt 86' — Missed Shot (0.11 xG, Open Play)Jonathan Burkardt 94' — Saved Shot (0.08 xG, Open Play)
Mainz 05 attacking right Augsburg attacking left Marker size is xG; filled markers are goals.

Every shot

MinTeamPlayerxG SituationBody partResultAssisted by
1' Mainz 05 Paul Nebel 0.06 Open Play Right Foot Missed Shot Kaishu Sano
5' Mainz 05 Paul Nebel 0.30 Open Play Right Foot Saved Shot Nelson Weiper
17' Augsburg Alexis Claude Maurice 0.01 Open Play Right Foot Missed Shot
19' Augsburg Marius Wolf 0.03 From Corner Right Foot Blocked Shot Mert Kömür
19' Augsburg Samuel Essende 0.06 From Corner Right Foot Missed Shot
21' Mainz 05 Nadiem Amiri 0.03 Open Play Right Foot Saved Shot Dominik Kohr
37' Mainz 05 Nelson Weiper 0.46 Open Play Saved Shot
37' Mainz 05 Paul Nebel 0.06 Open Play Right Foot Blocked Shot Philipp Mwene
50' Augsburg Cédric Zesiger 0.03 Open Play Left Foot Missed Shot Marius Wolf
50' Mainz 05 Moritz Jenz 0.63 Open Play Left Foot Blocked Shot Paul Nebel
50' Mainz 05 Nelson Weiper 0.71 Open Play Left Foot Saved Shot
51' Augsburg Mert Kömür 0.03 Open Play Left Foot Saved Shot Marius Wolf
56' Augsburg Samuel Essende 0.02 Open Play Right Foot Missed Shot Arne Maier
65' Augsburg Frank Onyeka 0.05 Open Play Right Foot Saved Shot Alexis Claude Maurice
83' Augsburg Fredrik Jensen 0.02 Open Play Right Foot Missed Shot Phillip Tietz
86' Mainz 05 Jonathan Burkardt 0.11 Open Play Right Foot Missed Shot
94' Mainz 05 Jonathan Burkardt 0.08 Open Play Left Foot Saved Shot Dominik Kohr

Players

Augsburg

PlayerMinGA ShKPxGxA xGChain
Frank Onyeka MC 90 0 0 1 0 0.05 0.00 0.05
Alexis Claude Maurice AMC 90 0 0 1 1 0.01 0.05 0.06
Chrislain Matsima DC 90 0 0 0 0 0.00 0.00 0.08
Finn Dahmen GK 90 0 0 0 0 0.00 0.00 0.00
Keven Schlotterbeck DC 90 0 0 0 0 0.00 0.00 0.02
Jeffrey Gouweleeuw DC 90 0 0 0 0 0.00 0.00 0.02
Samuel Essende FW 85 0 0 2 0 0.08 0.00 0.02
Marius Wolf DMR 85 0 0 1 2 0.03 0.06 0.06
Cédric Zesiger DML 84 0 0 1 0 0.03 0.00 0.03
Mert Kömür AMC 71 0 0 1 1 0.03 0.03 0.03
Arne Maier Sub 54 0 0 0 1 0.00 0.02 0.08
Kristijan Jakic MC 36 0 0 0 0 0.00 0.00 0.00
Fredrik Jensen Sub 19 0 0 1 0 0.02 0.00 0.07
Mads Pedersen Sub 6 0 0 0 0 0.00 0.00 0.02
Noahkai Banks Sub 5 0 0 0 0 0.00 0.00 0.00
Phillip Tietz Sub 5 0 0 0 1 0.00 0.02 0.02

Mainz 05

PlayerMinGA ShKPxGxA xGChain
Paul Nebel AMC 90 0 0 3 1 0.43 0.63 1.09
Nadiem Amiri MC 90 0 0 1 0 0.03 0.00 0.03
Jae-Sung Lee AMC 90 0 0 0 0 0.00 0.00 0.06
Dominik Kohr DC 90 0 0 0 2 0.00 0.11 0.47
Danny da Costa DC 90 0 0 0 0 0.00 0.00 0.43
Robin Zentner GK 90 0 0 0 0 0.00 0.00 0.30
Kaishu Sano MC 90 0 0 0 1 0.00 0.06 0.25
Silvan Widmer DMR 87 0 0 0 0 0.00 0.00 1.00
Nelson Weiper FW 74 0 0 2 1 1.17 0.30 1.60
Moritz Jenz DC 74 0 0 1 0 0.63 0.00 1.00
Philipp Mwene DML 53 0 0 0 1 0.00 0.06 0.13
Maxim Leitsch Sub 37 0 0 0 0 0.00 0.00 0.00
Jonathan Burkardt Sub 16 0 0 2 0 0.19 0.00 0.19
Nikolas Veratschnig Sub 16 0 0 0 0 0.00 0.00 0.00
Arnaud Nordin Sub 3 0 0 0 0 0.00 0.00 0.00
Armindo Sieb Sub 1 0 0 0 0 0.00 0.00 0.00
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Match

What this page is for

One fixture in full. The model's probability for every market it prices, the prices stored against them, the teams expected to feature, and for a match already played, the shot map and the xG timeline.

How to read the shot map

Every shot is placed where it was taken and sized by its chance of being scored. A cluster of small marks from distance and a clean sheet is a side that was busy without ever threatening; two big marks and a defeat is a side that had the better of it and lost anyway. Both happen constantly, and both are invisible in the score.

How to read the xG timeline

The steps are chances as they arrived, so the shape shows who was on top and when. A flat line that jumps once near the end is a smash and grab.

Things to watch

The stored prediction is the one made before the match, kept deliberately so it can be judged afterwards. It is not re-fitted with hindsight.

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