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Mainz 05 v Bayern Munich — Prediction, Odds & Stats

Saturday 14 December 2024 · GER-Bundesliga · 2425

Bundesliga xG

2–1
1.64 – 0.99 xG
Shots
8 – 13
On target
4 – 1
Shots in box
7 – 9
xG per shot
0.21 – 0.08
Set-piece xG
0.38 – 0.20
Goals − xG
+0.33 – -0.00
Reading the xG timeline
Each step up is a shot; the height of the step is how good the chance was. Dots mark goals. A side whose line climbs steadily created chances all match. A side that scored while its line stayed flat took a rare chance — that is finishing luck, and it rarely repeats.

Expected goals by minute

0.00.50.91.41.90'15'30'45'60'75'90'Jae-Sung Lee 40' — goalJae-Sung Lee 59' — goalLeroy Sané 86' — goal
Mainz 05 1.67 xGBayern Munich 1.00 xG
Reading the shot map
Each circle is a shot, placed where it was taken. Bigger means a better chance; filled circles are goals. Clusters near the goal mean a side worked good openings; lots of small circles far out means shooting from poor positions and hoping. Hover any circle for the player, minute and chance quality.

Shot map

Leroy Sané 4' — Blocked Shot (0.03 xG, Set Piece)Michael Olise 5' — Shot On Post (0.09 xG, Open Play)Michael Olise 11' — Missed Shot (0.08 xG, Open Play)Jonathan Burkardt 12' — Missed Shot (0.08 xG, Open Play)Anthony Caci 28' — Saved Shot (0.38 xG, From Corner)Leroy Sané 39' — Blocked Shot (0.02 xG, From Corner)Raphael Guerreiro 39' — Blocked Shot (0.03 xG, From Corner)Armindo Sieb 40' — Missed Shot (0.05 xG, Open Play)Jae-Sung Lee 40' — Goal (0.62 xG, Open Play)Jae-Sung Lee 59' — Goal (0.40 xG, Open Play)Leroy Sané 63' — Missed Shot (0.08 xG, Open Play)Nadiem Amiri 64' — Saved Shot (0.05 xG, Open Play)Armindo Sieb 67' — Missed Shot (0.06 xG, Open Play)Mathys Tel 71' — Blocked Shot (0.04 xG, Open Play)Michael Olise 71' — Missed Shot (0.07 xG, Open Play)Jamal Musiala 73' — Missed Shot (0.13 xG, Set Piece)Kaishu Sano 75' — Missed Shot (0.03 xG, Open Play)Mathys Tel 79' — Blocked Shot (0.06 xG, Open Play)Joshua Kimmich 81' — Missed Shot (0.01 xG, Open Play)Joshua Kimmich 86' — Blocked Shot (0.02 xG, Open Play)Leroy Sané 86' — Goal (0.35 xG, Open Play)
Mainz 05 attacking right Bayern Munich attacking left Marker size is xG; filled markers are goals.

Every shot

MinTeamPlayerxG SituationBody partResultAssisted by
4' Bayern Munich Leroy Sané 0.03 Set Piece Left Foot Blocked Shot Michael Olise
5' Bayern Munich Michael Olise 0.09 Open Play Left Foot Shot On Post Thomas Müller
11' Bayern Munich Michael Olise 0.08 Open Play Missed Shot Leroy Sané
12' Mainz 05 Jonathan Burkardt 0.08 Open Play Right Foot Missed Shot Jae-Sung Lee
28' Mainz 05 Anthony Caci 0.38 From Corner Left Foot Saved Shot Moritz Jenz
39' Bayern Munich Leroy Sané 0.02 From Corner Left Foot Blocked Shot
39' Bayern Munich Raphael Guerreiro 0.03 From Corner Left Foot Blocked Shot
40' Mainz 05 Armindo Sieb 0.05 Open Play Left Foot Missed Shot
40' Mainz 05 Jae-Sung Lee 0.62 Open Play Left Foot Goal
59' Mainz 05 Jae-Sung Lee 0.40 Open Play Left Foot Goal Armindo Sieb
63' Bayern Munich Leroy Sané 0.08 Open Play Left Foot Missed Shot Thomas Müller
64' Mainz 05 Nadiem Amiri 0.05 Open Play Right Foot Saved Shot
67' Mainz 05 Armindo Sieb 0.06 Open Play Left Foot Missed Shot Nadiem Amiri
71' Bayern Munich Mathys Tel 0.04 Open Play Left Foot Blocked Shot Michael Olise
71' Bayern Munich Michael Olise 0.07 Open Play Missed Shot Joshua Kimmich
73' Bayern Munich Jamal Musiala 0.13 Set Piece Missed Shot Konrad Laimer
75' Mainz 05 Kaishu Sano 0.03 Open Play Right Foot Missed Shot Paul Nebel
79' Bayern Munich Mathys Tel 0.06 Open Play Right Foot Blocked Shot Michael Olise
81' Bayern Munich Joshua Kimmich 0.01 Open Play Right Foot Missed Shot
86' Bayern Munich Joshua Kimmich 0.02 Open Play Right Foot Blocked Shot Michael Olise
86' Bayern Munich Leroy Sané 0.35 Open Play Left Foot Goal

Players

Mainz 05

PlayerMinGA ShKPxGxA xGChain
Jae-Sung Lee AMC 90 2 0 2 1 1.02 0.08 1.17
Anthony Caci DMR 90 0 0 1 0 0.38 0.00 0.46
Nadiem Amiri MC 90 0 0 1 1 0.05 0.06 0.50
Kaishu Sano MC 90 0 0 1 0 0.03 0.00 0.03
Robin Zentner GK 90 0 0 0 0 0.00 0.00 0.00
Philipp Mwene DML 90 0 0 0 0 0.00 0.00 0.03
Moritz Jenz DC 90 0 0 0 1 0.00 0.38 0.00
Dominik Kohr DC 90 0 0 0 0 0.00 0.00 0.46
Stefan Bell DC 90 0 0 0 0 0.00 0.00 0.00
Paul Nebel AMC 86 0 0 0 1 0.00 0.03 0.03
Armindo Sieb Sub 65 0 1 2 1 0.11 0.40 0.51
Jonathan Burkardt FW 14 0 0 1 0 0.08 0.00 0.08
Karim Onisiwo Sub 11 0 0 0 0 0.00 0.00 0.00
Hong Hyun-Seok Sub 4 0 0 0 0 0.00 0.00 0.00

Bayern Munich

PlayerMinGA ShKPxGxA xGChain
Leroy Sané AML 90 1 0 4 1 0.47 0.08 0.59
Michael Olise AMR 90 0 0 3 4 0.24 0.15 0.37
Jamal Musiala AMC 90 0 0 1 0 0.13 0.00 0.18
Joshua Kimmich DMC 90 0 0 2 1 0.03 0.07 0.19
Kim Min-Jae DC 90 0 0 0 0 0.00 0.00 0.10
Konrad Laimer DR 90 0 0 0 1 0.00 0.13 0.18
Thomas Müller FW 90 0 0 0 2 0.00 0.16 0.16
Daniel Peretz GK 90 0 0 0 0 0.00 0.00 0.00
Eric Dier DC 66 0 0 0 0 0.00 0.00 0.16
Raphael Guerreiro DL 60 0 0 1 0 0.03 0.00 0.08
Aleksandar Pavlovic DMC 60 0 0 0 0 0.00 0.00 0.08
Leon Goretzka Sub 30 0 0 0 0 0.00 0.00 0.00
Sacha Boey Sub 30 0 0 0 0 0.00 0.00 0.17
Mathys Tel Sub 24 0 0 2 0 0.10 0.00 0.10
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Match

What this page is for

One fixture in full. The model's probability for every market it prices, the prices stored against them, the teams expected to feature, and for a match already played, the shot map and the xG timeline.

How to read the shot map

Every shot is placed where it was taken and sized by its chance of being scored. A cluster of small marks from distance and a clean sheet is a side that was busy without ever threatening; two big marks and a defeat is a side that had the better of it and lost anyway. Both happen constantly, and both are invisible in the score.

How to read the xG timeline

The steps are chances as they arrived, so the shape shows who was on top and when. A flat line that jumps once near the end is a smash and grab.

Things to watch

The stored prediction is the one made before the match, kept deliberately so it can be judged afterwards. It is not re-fitted with hindsight.

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