Mainz 05 v FC Heidenheim — Prediction, Odds & Stats
Tuesday 13 January 2026 · GER-Bundesliga · 2526
Bundesliga
xG Prediction generated
Shots
13 – 15
On target
6 – 4
Shots in box
11 – 10
xG per shot
0.15 – 0.09
Set-piece xG
0.38 – 0.17
Goals − xG
+0.04 – -0.28
AI prediction
ai-blend-oos No snapshot has been taken for this fixture yet; this is the stored price.Mainz 05 win
50.6%
Draw
28.3%
FC Heidenheim win
21.1%
Probabilities, not certainties. How they are made: the methodology.
Was this pick made in advance?
A model whose name ends
-oos is out of sample: it was fitted only on matches
played before this one, so its pick is a genuine forecast rather than hindsight.
Anything without that suffix was fitted on all available data.What the chances say
Mainz 05 are finishing sharply below their chances — 5.4 goals fewer than expected across 10 matches, despite creating the openings. They are also conceding fewer than expected — 3.3 goals saved beyond what the chances suggest.
WWLDLWLWDW last 10
scored 18
from 23.4 xG
conceded 12
from 15.3 xG
FC Heidenheim have scored 19 from 17.3 expected and conceded 19 from 18.3 — both ends in line with the chances, so the recent record is a fair reflection.
LLDDWLWDWL last 10
scored 19
from 17.3 xG
conceded 19
from 18.3 xG
Finishing swings far more than chance creation, so a gap this size usually narrows. Over ten matches it is suggestive, not settled — a genuinely elite finisher beats expected goals for years.
What the model said
| Model | Home / Draw / Away | Expected goals | Likeliest score | O2.5 | BTTS | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ai-blend-oos | 1.57–0.94 | 0% | 0% | 0% | Home ✓ | |
| dc-xg-oos | 1.87–1.18 | 1-1 10% | 59% | 59% | Home ✓ |
A model whose name ends -oos was produced by the walk-forward backtest:
it was fitted only on matches played before this one, so the pick is genuinely out of sample.
Reading the xG timeline
Each step up is a shot; the height of the step is how good the chance was. Dots mark goals.
A side whose line climbs steadily created chances all match. A side that scored while its
line stayed flat took a rare chance — that is finishing luck, and it rarely repeats.
Expected goals by minute
Mainz 05 1.96 xGFC Heidenheim 1.28 xG
Reading the shot map
Each circle is a shot, placed where it was taken. Bigger means a better chance;
filled circles are goals. Clusters near the goal mean a side worked good openings;
lots of small circles far out means shooting from poor positions and hoping.
Hover any circle for the player, minute and chance quality.
Shot map
Mainz 05 attacking right
FC Heidenheim attacking left
Marker size is xG; filled markers are goals.
Every shot
| Min | Team | Player | xG | Situation | Body part | Result | Assisted by |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7' |
 Mainz 05 |
Nikolas Veratschnig | 0.01 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | Kaishu Sano |
| 10' |
 FC Heidenheim |
Mikkel Kaufmann | 0.03 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Omar Traoré |
| 12' |
Mainz 05 |
Phillip Tietz | 0.05 | Open Play | — | Saved Shot | Jae-Sung Lee |
| 25' |
FC Heidenheim |
Marvin Pieringer | 0.08 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | Arijon Ibrahimovic |
| 27' |
FC Heidenheim |
Benedikt Gimber | 0.08 | Set Piece | Right Foot | Saved Shot | Jonas Föhrenbach |
| 29' |
Mainz 05 |
Silvan Widmer | 0.31 | Open Play | Right Foot | Goal | Jae-Sung Lee |
| 36' |
Mainz 05 |
Phillip Tietz | 0.48 | Open Play | — | Missed Shot | Dominik Kohr |
| 38' |
FC Heidenheim |
Jan Schöppner | 0.03 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Arijon Ibrahimovic |
| 46' |
FC Heidenheim |
Marvin Pieringer | 0.03 | Open Play | Left Foot | Missed Shot | — |
| 47' |
Mainz 05 |
Nadiem Amiri | 0.12 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Phillip Tietz |
| 48' |
Mainz 05 |
Nadiem Amiri | 0.12 | Open Play | Right Foot | Goal | Phillip Tietz |
| 51' |
Mainz 05 |
Armindo Sieb | 0.43 | Open Play | Left Foot | Saved Shot | Nadiem Amiri |
| 51' |
Mainz 05 |
Nadiem Amiri | 0.03 | From Corner | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Kaishu Sano |
| 51' |
Mainz 05 |
Silvan Widmer | 0.07 | From Corner | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Nadiem Amiri |
| 59' |
FC Heidenheim |
Arijon Ibrahimovic | 0.07 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | Adrian Beck |
| 59' |
FC Heidenheim |
Stefan Schimmer | 0.59 | Open Play | Left Foot | Goal | — |
| 62' |
Mainz 05 |
Paul Nebel | 0.05 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Nadiem Amiri |
| 63' |
FC Heidenheim |
Arijon Ibrahimovic | 0.10 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Adrian Beck |
| 63' |
FC Heidenheim |
Sirlord Conteh | 0.03 | From Corner | Right Foot | Missed Shot | — |
| 66' |
FC Heidenheim |
Adrian Beck | 0.06 | Set Piece | Right Foot | Missed Shot | — |
| 70' |
FC Heidenheim |
Omar Traoré | 0.01 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | — |
| 73' |
Mainz 05 |
Kacper Potulski | 0.02 | Set Piece | — | Missed Shot | Nadiem Amiri |
| 78' |
Mainz 05 |
Phillip Tietz | 0.22 | Set Piece | — | Missed Shot | Nadiem Amiri |
| 79' |
Mainz 05 |
Stefan Bell | 0.04 | From Corner | — | Saved Shot | Nadiem Amiri |
| 82' |
FC Heidenheim |
Stefan Schimmer | 0.07 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Adrian Beck |
| 84' |
FC Heidenheim |
Arijon Ibrahimovic | 0.03 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Stefan Schimmer |
| 84' |
FC Heidenheim |
Arijon Ibrahimovic | 0.05 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Omar Traoré |
| 84' |
FC Heidenheim |
Benedikt Gimber | 0.02 | Open Play | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | Adrian Beck |
Players
Mainz 05
| Player | Min | G | A | Sh | KP | xG | xA | xGChain |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Phillip Tietz FW | 90 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 2 | 0.75 | 0.24 | 0.77 |
| Silvan Widmer DMR | 90 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0.38 | 0.00 | 0.43 |
| Nadiem Amiri MC | 90 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 6 | 0.27 | 0.83 | 0.72 |
| Stefan Bell DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.04 | 0.00 | 0.65 |
| Daniel Batz GK | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Danny da Costa DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.12 |
| Dominik Kohr DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.48 | 0.48 |
| Jae-Sung Lee MC | 90 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 0.00 | 0.37 | 0.97 |
| Kaishu Sano MC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0.00 | 0.04 | 1.04 |
| Armindo Sieb FW | 63 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.43 | 0.00 | 0.55 |
| Kacper Potulski Sub | 57 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.02 | 0.00 | 0.12 |
| Nikolas Veratschnig DML | 33 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.01 | 0.00 | 0.01 |
| Paul Nebel Sub | 27 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.05 | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| Arnaud Nordin Sub | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Lennard Maloney Sub | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
FC Heidenheim
| Player | Min | G | A | Sh | KP | xG | xA | xGChain |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Arijon Ibrahimovic AMC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 2 | 0.25 | 0.11 | 0.37 |
| Benedikt Gimber DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0.09 | 0.00 | 0.07 |
| Omar Traoré DR | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0.01 | 0.08 | 0.19 |
| Patrick Mainka DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.16 |
| Niklas Dorsch MC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.32 |
| Diant Ramaj GK | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.03 |
| Jonas Föhrenbach DL | 85 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.08 | 0.00 |
| Julian Niehues MC | 79 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.03 |
| Marvin Pieringer FW | 62 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0.11 | 0.00 | 0.11 |
| Mikkel Kaufmann FW | 62 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.03 | 0.00 | 0.03 |
| Jan Schöppner MC | 50 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.03 | 0.00 | 0.03 |
| Sirlord Conteh Sub | 40 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.03 | 0.00 | 0.02 |
| Stefan Schimmer Sub | 28 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0.66 | 0.03 | 0.70 |
| Adrian Beck Sub | 28 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 0.06 | 0.26 | 0.30 |
| Mathias Honsak Sub | 11 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.04 |
| Yannik Wagner Sub | 5 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |