Mallorca v Elche — Prediction, Odds & Stats
Saturday 13 December 2025 · ESP-La Liga · 2526
La Liga
xG Prediction generated
Shots
16 – 9
On target
8 – 0
Shots in box
12 – 5
xG per shot
0.16 – 0.03
Set-piece xG
0.66 – 0.03
Goals − xG
+0.42 – +0.69
AI prediction
ai-blend-oos No snapshot has been taken for this fixture yet; this is the stored price.Mallorca win
35.0%
Draw
28.1%
Elche win
36.9%
Probabilities, not certainties. How they are made: the methodology.
Was this pick made in advance?
A model whose name ends
-oos is out of sample: it was fitted only on matches
played before this one, so its pick is a genuine forecast rather than hindsight.
Anything without that suffix was fitted on all available data.What the chances say
Mallorca are conceding fewer than expected — 3.1 goals saved beyond what the chances suggest.
LWWDLWDLLW last 10
scored 14
from 14.8 xG
conceded 12
from 15.1 xG
Elche are conceding more than the chances against them merit — 3.6 goals above expected, which tends to correct.
WWLDLWDDLL last 10
scored 13
from 13.4 xG
conceded 19
from 15.4 xG
Finishing swings far more than chance creation, so a gap this size usually narrows. Over ten matches it is suggestive, not settled — a genuinely elite finisher beats expected goals for years.
What the model said
| Model | Home / Draw / Away | Expected goals | Likeliest score | O2.5 | BTTS | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ai-blend-oos | 1.10–1.14 | 0% | 0% | 0% | Away ✗ | |
| dc-xg-oos | 1.34–1.13 | 1-1 13% | 45% | 50% | Home ✓ |
A model whose name ends -oos was produced by the walk-forward backtest:
it was fitted only on matches played before this one, so the pick is genuinely out of sample.
Reading the xG timeline
Each step up is a shot; the height of the step is how good the chance was. Dots mark goals.
A side whose line climbs steadily created chances all match. A side that scored while its
line stayed flat took a rare chance — that is finishing luck, and it rarely repeats.
Expected goals by minute
Mallorca 2.58 xGElche 0.31 xG
Reading the shot map
Each circle is a shot, placed where it was taken. Bigger means a better chance;
filled circles are goals. Clusters near the goal mean a side worked good openings;
lots of small circles far out means shooting from poor positions and hoping.
Hover any circle for the player, minute and chance quality.
Shot map
Mallorca attacking right
Elche attacking left
Marker size is xG; filled markers are goals.
Every shot
| Min | Team | Player | xG | Situation | Body part | Result | Assisted by |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3' |
 Elche |
Martim Neto | 0.04 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | German Valera |
| 4' |
 Mallorca |
Manuel Morlanes | 0.34 | Open Play | Right Foot | Goal | Jan Virgili |
| 12' |
Mallorca |
Jan Virgili | 0.09 | Open Play | Right Foot | Shot On Post | Sergi Darder |
| 17' |
Elche |
Rafa Mir | 0.02 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Martim Neto |
| 20' |
Mallorca |
Pablo Maffeo | 0.00 | Open Play | Right Foot | Own Goal | — |
| 20' |
Mallorca |
Vedat Muriqi | 0.32 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | Sergi Darder |
| 40' |
Mallorca |
Sergi Darder | 0.02 | Open Play | — | Missed Shot | — |
| 42' |
Mallorca |
Vedat Muriqi | 0.27 | Set Piece | Left Foot | Saved Shot | Johan Mojica |
| 44' |
Elche |
Yago Alonso | 0.08 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | — |
| 45' |
Elche |
Martim Neto | 0.03 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | German Valera |
| 49' |
Mallorca |
Johan Mojica | 0.01 | Open Play | Left Foot | Missed Shot | Omar Mascarell |
| 50' |
Mallorca |
Vedat Muriqi | 0.28 | Open Play | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | Mateo Joseph |
| 52' |
Mallorca |
Vedat Muriqi | 0.05 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | Manuel Morlanes |
| 53' |
Mallorca |
Jan Virgili | 0.04 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Manuel Morlanes |
| 53' |
Mallorca |
Vedat Muriqi | 0.06 | From Corner | — | Missed Shot | Raíllo |
| 61' |
Mallorca |
Vedat Muriqi | 0.05 | Open Play | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | Sergi Darder |
| 62' |
Elche |
Yago Alonso | 0.08 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Martim Neto |
| 66' |
Mallorca |
Vedat Muriqi | 0.33 | Set Piece | — | Saved Shot | Sergi Darder |
| 73' |
Elche |
Rafa Mir | 0.03 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Alvaro Rodríguez |
| 75' |
Elche |
David Affengruber | 0.01 | Set Piece | — | Missed Shot | German Valera |
| 76' |
Elche |
German Valera | 0.02 | Open Play | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | David Affengruber |
| 81' |
Mallorca |
Omar Mascarell | 0.16 | Open Play | Right Foot | Goal | — |
| 88' |
Mallorca |
Vedat Muriqi | 0.15 | Open Play | — | Goal | Omar Mascarell |
| 90' |
Mallorca |
Abdón Prats | 0.42 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | Takuma Asano |
| 93' |
Elche |
Alvaro Rodríguez | 0.01 | Set Piece | — | Missed Shot | Rodrigo Mendoza |
Players
Mallorca
| Player | Min | G | A | Sh | KP | xG | xA | xGChain |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Vedat Muriqi FW | 90 | 1 | 0 | 8 | 0 | 1.50 | 0.00 | 0.98 |
| Omar Mascarell DMC | 90 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0.16 | 0.16 | 1.02 |
| Johan Mojica DL | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.01 | 0.27 | 0.42 |
| Leo Román GK | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.34 |
| Pablo Maffeo DR | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.15 |
| Raíllo DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.06 | 0.34 |
| Martin Valjent DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.72 |
| Jan Virgili AML | 88 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 0.14 | 0.34 | 0.47 |
| Sergi Darder AMC | 88 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 0.02 | 0.79 | 0.87 |
| Manuel Morlanes DMC | 73 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0.34 | 0.09 | 0.71 |
| Mateo Joseph AMR | 73 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.28 | 0.41 |
| Takuma Asano Sub | 17 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.42 | 0.42 |
| Antonio Sánchez Sub | 17 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Mateu Morey Sub | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Pablo Torre Sub | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.57 |
| Abdón Prats Sub | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.42 | 0.00 | 0.42 |
Elche
| Player | Min | G | A | Sh | KP | xG | xA | xGChain |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| German Valera MR | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 0.02 | 0.07 | 0.10 |
| Aleix Febas MC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.02 |
| Marc Aguado DMC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.06 |
| Pedro Bigas DL | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| Victor Chust DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| Iñaki Peña GK | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Rafa Mir FW | 89 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0.05 | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| David Affengruber DC | 89 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.01 | 0.02 | 0.08 |
| Martim Neto MC | 80 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 0.06 | 0.10 | 0.16 |
| Yago Alonso ML | 68 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0.15 | 0.00 | 0.20 |
| Álvaro Núñez DR | 68 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.10 |
| Alvaro Rodríguez Sub | 22 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.01 | 0.03 | 0.03 |
| John Donald Sub | 22 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Rodrigo Mendoza Sub | 10 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.01 | 0.00 |
| André Silva Sub | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Josan Sub | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |