Mallorca v Espanyol — Prediction, Odds & Stats
Saturday 15 March 2025 · ESP-La Liga · 2425
La Liga
xG Prediction generated
Shots
21 – 2
On target
7 – 0
Shots in box
15 – 1
xG per shot
0.12 – 0.09
Set-piece xG
1.58 – 0.00
Goals − xG
-0.57 – +0.82
AI prediction
ai-blend-oos No snapshot has been taken for this fixture yet; this is the stored price.Mallorca win
42.5%
Draw
29.1%
Espanyol win
28.4%
Probabilities, not certainties. How they are made: the methodology.
Was this pick made in advance?
A model whose name ends
-oos is out of sample: it was fitted only on matches
played before this one, so its pick is a genuine forecast rather than hindsight.
Anything without that suffix was fitted on all available data.What the chances say
Mallorca are conceding fewer than expected — 3.1 goals saved beyond what the chances suggest.
LWWDLWDLLW last 10
scored 14
from 14.8 xG
conceded 12
from 15.1 xG
Espanyol are conceding fewer than expected — 3.3 goals saved beyond what the chances suggest.
DLLWWDWLLD last 10
scored 12
from 12.1 xG
conceded 11
from 14.3 xG
Finishing swings far more than chance creation, so a gap this size usually narrows. Over ten matches it is suggestive, not settled — a genuinely elite finisher beats expected goals for years.
What the model said
| Model | Home / Draw / Away | Expected goals | Likeliest score | O2.5 | BTTS | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ai-blend-oos | 1.24–0.96 | 0% | 0% | 0% | Home ✓ |
A model whose name ends -oos was produced by the walk-forward backtest:
it was fitted only on matches played before this one, so the pick is genuinely out of sample.
Reading the xG timeline
Each step up is a shot; the height of the step is how good the chance was. Dots mark goals.
A side whose line climbs steadily created chances all match. A side that scored while its
line stayed flat took a rare chance — that is finishing luck, and it rarely repeats.
Expected goals by minute
Mallorca 2.57 xGEspanyol 0.18 xG
Reading the shot map
Each circle is a shot, placed where it was taken. Bigger means a better chance;
filled circles are goals. Clusters near the goal mean a side worked good openings;
lots of small circles far out means shooting from poor positions and hoping.
Hover any circle for the player, minute and chance quality.
Shot map
Mallorca attacking right
Espanyol attacking left
Marker size is xG; filled markers are goals.
Every shot
| Min | Team | Player | xG | Situation | Body part | Result | Assisted by |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 9' |
 Espanyol |
Edu Expósito | 0.12 | Open Play | Left Foot | Missed Shot | Javi Puado |
| 11' |
 Mallorca |
Dani Rodríguez | 0.04 | Open Play | — | Saved Shot | Pablo Maffeo |
| 12' |
Mallorca |
Takuma Asano | 0.30 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Samú Costa |
| 16' |
Mallorca |
Dani Rodríguez | 0.08 | Open Play | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | Takuma Asano |
| 19' |
Mallorca |
Takuma Asano | 0.02 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Manuel Morlanes |
| 20' |
Mallorca |
Vedat Muriqi | 0.03 | From Corner | — | Missed Shot | Dani Rodríguez |
| 27' |
Mallorca |
Raíllo | 0.05 | Set Piece | Right Foot | Missed Shot | — |
| 42' |
Mallorca |
Dani Rodríguez | 0.09 | Open Play | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | Johan Mojica |
| 43' |
Mallorca |
Takuma Asano | 0.02 | Open Play | Left Foot | Missed Shot | Manuel Morlanes |
| 52' |
Mallorca |
Vedat Muriqi | 0.00 | From Corner | — | Own Goal | — |
| 58' |
Mallorca |
Johan Mojica | 0.01 | Open Play | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | Martin Valjent |
| 61' |
Mallorca |
Vedat Muriqi | 0.74 | Left Foot | Saved Shot | — | |
| 62' |
Mallorca |
Raíllo | 0.02 | From Corner | — | Blocked Shot | Dani Rodríguez |
| 64' |
Mallorca |
Takuma Asano | 0.12 | Open Play | — | Goal | Sergi Darder |
| 66' |
Mallorca |
Vedat Muriqi | 0.06 | Open Play | — | Missed Shot | Sergi Darder |
| 68' |
Mallorca |
Takuma Asano | 0.02 | Open Play | — | Missed Shot | Pablo Maffeo |
| 70' |
Espanyol |
Javi Puado | 0.06 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Jofre Carreras |
| 70' |
Mallorca |
Vedat Muriqi | 0.02 | Open Play | Left Foot | Saved Shot | Sergi Darder |
| 71' |
Mallorca |
Sergi Darder | 0.01 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Vedat Muriqi |
| 77' |
Mallorca |
Manuel Morlanes | 0.11 | Open Play | — | Saved Shot | Vedat Muriqi |
| 78' |
Mallorca |
Johan Mojica | 0.03 | Open Play | Left Foot | Saved Shot | Raíllo |
| 78' |
Mallorca |
Takuma Asano | 0.04 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Johan Mojica |
| 96' |
Mallorca |
Vedat Muriqi | 0.74 | Left Foot | Goal | — |
Players
Mallorca
| Player | Min | G | A | Sh | KP | xG | xA | xGChain |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Vedat Muriqi FW | 90 | 1 | 0 | 5 | 2 | 1.59 | 0.12 | 0.33 |
| Raíllo DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0.06 | 0.03 | 0.47 |
| Johan Mojica DL | 90 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 0.05 | 0.13 | 0.60 |
| Sergi Darder AML | 90 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 0.01 | 0.20 | 0.44 |
| Martin Valjent DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.01 | 0.49 |
| Pablo Maffeo DR | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0.00 | 0.07 | 0.31 |
| Dominik Greif GK | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Samú Costa DMC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.30 | 0.70 |
| Takuma Asano AMR | 84 | 1 | 0 | 6 | 1 | 0.53 | 0.08 | 0.62 |
| Manuel Morlanes DMC | 84 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0.11 | 0.04 | 0.63 |
| Dani Rodríguez AMC | 76 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 2 | 0.21 | 0.05 | 0.23 |
| Abdón Prats Sub | 14 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Valery Fernández Sub | 6 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Omar Mascarell Sub | 6 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Antonio Sánchez Sub | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
Espanyol
| Player | Min | G | A | Sh | KP | xG | xA | xGChain |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Javi Puado ML | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.06 | 0.12 | 0.18 |
| Alex Kral FW | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Carlos Romero DL | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.12 |
| Joan García GK | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.06 |
| Leandro Cabrera DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Marash Kumbulla DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Omar El Hilali DR | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Urko Gonzalez MC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Jofre Carreras MR | 81 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.06 | 0.06 |
| Roberto Fernández FW | 80 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Edu Expósito MC | 69 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.12 | 0.00 | 0.12 |
| Fernando Calero Sub | 21 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Walid Cheddira Sub | 10 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Antoniu Roca Sub | 9 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Pere Milla Sub | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Álvaro Aguado Sub | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |