Mallorca v Getafe — Prediction, Odds & Stats
Sunday 9 November 2025 · ESP-La Liga · 2526
La Liga
xG Prediction generated
Shots
6 – 14
On target
3 – 2
Shots in box
5 – 6
xG per shot
0.25 – 0.04
Set-piece xG
0.12 – 0.23
Goals − xG
-0.50 – -0.54
AI prediction
ai-blend-oos No snapshot has been taken for this fixture yet; this is the stored price.Mallorca win
35.4%
Draw
30.3%
Getafe win
34.4%
Probabilities, not certainties. How they are made: the methodology.
Was this pick made in advance?
A model whose name ends
-oos is out of sample: it was fitted only on matches
played before this one, so its pick is a genuine forecast rather than hindsight.
Anything without that suffix was fitted on all available data.What the chances say
Mallorca are conceding fewer than expected — 3.1 goals saved beyond what the chances suggest.
LWWDLWDLLW last 10
scored 14
from 14.8 xG
conceded 12
from 15.1 xG
Getafe are finishing below their chances — 2.1 goals fewer than expected across 10 matches, despite creating the openings. They are also conceding fewer than expected — 2.5 goals saved beyond what the chances suggest.
WLLDWLWLWL last 10
scored 6
from 8.1 xG
conceded 10
from 12.5 xG
Finishing swings far more than chance creation, so a gap this size usually narrows. Over ten matches it is suggestive, not settled — a genuinely elite finisher beats expected goals for years.
What the model said
| Model | Home / Draw / Away | Expected goals | Likeliest score | O2.5 | BTTS | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ai-blend-oos | 1.03–1.01 | 0% | 0% | 0% | Home ✓ | |
| dc-xg-oos | 1.11–0.95 | 1-0 14% | 34% | 41% | Home ✓ |
A model whose name ends -oos was produced by the walk-forward backtest:
it was fitted only on matches played before this one, so the pick is genuinely out of sample.
Reading the xG timeline
Each step up is a shot; the height of the step is how good the chance was. Dots mark goals.
A side whose line climbs steadily created chances all match. A side that scored while its
line stayed flat took a rare chance — that is finishing luck, and it rarely repeats.
Expected goals by minute
Mallorca 1.50 xGGetafe 0.54 xG
Reading the shot map
Each circle is a shot, placed where it was taken. Bigger means a better chance;
filled circles are goals. Clusters near the goal mean a side worked good openings;
lots of small circles far out means shooting from poor positions and hoping.
Hover any circle for the player, minute and chance quality.
Shot map
Mallorca attacking right
Getafe attacking left
Marker size is xG; filled markers are goals.
Every shot
| Min | Team | Player | xG | Situation | Body part | Result | Assisted by |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4' |
 Mallorca |
Mateo Joseph | 0.02 | Set Piece | — | Missed Shot | Johan Mojica |
| 8' |
 Getafe |
Juan Iglesias | 0.01 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | — |
| 13' |
Mallorca |
Vedat Muriqi | 0.39 | Open Play | Right Foot | Goal | Johan Mojica |
| 18' |
Getafe |
Alex Sancris | 0.02 | Set Piece | Right Foot | Missed Shot | — |
| 26' |
Getafe |
Mauro Arambarri | 0.08 | Open Play | Left Foot | Missed Shot | Juan Iglesias |
| 29' |
Getafe |
Domingos Duarte | 0.02 | From Corner | — | Missed Shot | Luis Milla |
| 37' |
Getafe |
Mario Martín | 0.07 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Juan Iglesias |
| 38' |
Getafe |
Alex Sancris | 0.01 | From Corner | Right Foot | Saved Shot | — |
| 45' |
Getafe |
Diego Rico | 0.01 | Open Play | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | Luis Milla |
| 46' |
Getafe |
Mauro Arambarri | 0.08 | From Corner | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Abdelkabir Abqar |
| 47' |
Getafe |
Mario Martín | 0.04 | From Corner | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | — |
| 52' |
Mallorca |
Raíllo | 0.10 | From Corner | — | Saved Shot | Sergi Darder |
| 55' |
Getafe |
Alex Sancris | 0.02 | Open Play | Left Foot | Saved Shot | Luis Milla |
| 58' |
Getafe |
Mauro Arambarri | 0.03 | From Corner | Right Foot | Missed Shot | — |
| 72' |
Mallorca |
Mateo Joseph | 0.36 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | — |
| 72' |
Mallorca |
Sergi Darder | 0.53 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | — |
| 77' |
Mallorca |
Vedat Muriqi | 0.10 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | — |
| 78' |
Getafe |
Juan Iglesias | 0.04 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Abu Kamara |
| 78' |
Getafe |
Luis Milla | 0.09 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | — |
| 79' |
Getafe |
Coba da Costa | 0.02 | From Corner | Right Foot | Missed Shot | — |
Players
Getafe
| Player | Min | G | A | Sh | KP | xG | xA | xGChain |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mauro Arambarri MC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 0.19 | 0.00 | 0.18 |
| Luis Milla MC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 0.09 | 0.05 | 0.16 |
| Juan Iglesias DR | 90 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 0.04 | 0.15 | 0.22 |
| Domingos Duarte DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.02 | 0.00 | 0.04 |
| Diego Rico DL | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.01 | 0.00 | 0.07 |
| David Soria GK | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Borja Mayoral FW | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Abdelkabir Abqar DC | 80 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.08 | 0.00 |
| Mario Martín MR | 79 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0.11 | 0.00 | 0.17 |
| Alex Sancris ML | 79 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0.06 | 0.00 | 0.11 |
| Adrián Liso FW | 71 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Coba da Costa Sub | 19 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.02 | 0.00 | 0.04 |
| Juanmi Sub | 11 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.04 |
| Abu Kamara Sub | 11 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.04 | 0.04 |
| Djené Dakonam Sub | 10 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.04 |
| Nyom Sub | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
Mallorca
| Player | Min | G | A | Sh | KP | xG | xA | xGChain |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Vedat Muriqi FW | 90 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0.48 | 0.00 | 0.48 |
| Raíllo DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.10 | 0.00 | 0.39 |
| Samú Costa DMC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.39 |
| Johan Mojica DL | 90 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 0.00 | 0.41 | 0.39 |
| Lucas Bergström GK | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.39 |
| Martin Valjent DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.39 |
| Pablo Maffeo DR | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.39 |
| Omar Mascarell DMC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.39 |
| Sergi Darder AMR | 86 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.53 | 0.10 | 0.53 |
| Mateo Joseph AMC | 85 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0.38 | 0.00 | 0.36 |
| Jan Virgili AML | 67 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Antonio Sánchez Sub | 23 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.53 |
| Takuma Asano Sub | 5 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Manuel Morlanes Sub | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Abdón Prats Sub | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |