Mallorca v Real Valladolid — Prediction, Odds & Stats
Saturday 10 May 2025 · ESP-La Liga · 2425
La Liga
xG Prediction generated
Shots
12 – 15
On target
4 – 7
Shots in box
8 – 9
xG per shot
0.15 – 0.18
Set-piece xG
0.46 – 0.66
Goals − xG
+0.24 – -1.76
AI prediction
ai-blend-oos No snapshot has been taken for this fixture yet; this is the stored price.Mallorca win
64.5%
Draw
20.7%
Real Valladolid win
14.7%
Probabilities, not certainties. How they are made: the methodology.
Was this pick made in advance?
A model whose name ends
-oos is out of sample: it was fitted only on matches
played before this one, so its pick is a genuine forecast rather than hindsight.
Anything without that suffix was fitted on all available data.What the chances say
Mallorca are conceding fewer than expected — 3.1 goals saved beyond what the chances suggest.
LWWDLWDLLW last 10
scored 14
from 14.8 xG
conceded 12
from 15.1 xG
Real Valladolid are finishing below their chances — 3.5 goals fewer than expected across 10 matches, despite creating the openings. They are also conceding sharply more than the chances against them merit — 5.7 goals above expected, which tends to correct.
LLLLLLLLLL last 10
scored 8
from 11.5 xG
conceded 27
from 21.3 xG
Finishing swings far more than chance creation, so a gap this size usually narrows. Over ten matches it is suggestive, not settled — a genuinely elite finisher beats expected goals for years.
What the model said
| Model | Home / Draw / Away | Expected goals | Likeliest score | O2.5 | BTTS | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ai-blend-oos | 1.94–0.80 | 0% | 0% | 0% | Home ✓ | |
| dc-xg-oos | 1.94–0.79 | 1-0 13% | 51% | 47% | Home ✓ |
A model whose name ends -oos was produced by the walk-forward backtest:
it was fitted only on matches played before this one, so the pick is genuinely out of sample.
Reading the xG timeline
Each step up is a shot; the height of the step is how good the chance was. Dots mark goals.
A side whose line climbs steadily created chances all match. A side that scored while its
line stayed flat took a rare chance — that is finishing luck, and it rarely repeats.
Expected goals by minute
Mallorca 1.76 xGReal Valladolid 2.76 xG
Reading the shot map
Each circle is a shot, placed where it was taken. Bigger means a better chance;
filled circles are goals. Clusters near the goal mean a side worked good openings;
lots of small circles far out means shooting from poor positions and hoping.
Hover any circle for the player, minute and chance quality.
Shot map
Mallorca attacking right
Real Valladolid attacking left
Marker size is xG; filled markers are goals.
Every shot
| Min | Team | Player | xG | Situation | Body part | Result | Assisted by |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6' |
 Real Valladolid |
Eray Cömert | 0.57 | From Corner | Right Foot | Saved Shot | Chuki |
| 8' |
 Mallorca |
Takuma Asano | 0.10 | Open Play | — | Missed Shot | Johan Mojica |
| 10' |
Real Valladolid |
Chuki | 0.75 | Open Play | Right Foot | Goal | Raul Moro |
| 17' |
Real Valladolid |
Chuki | 0.48 | Open Play | Left Foot | Saved Shot | Raul Moro |
| 18' |
Real Valladolid |
Chuki | 0.03 | From Corner | Left Foot | Missed Shot | Cenk Özkacar |
| 18' |
Real Valladolid |
Chuki | 0.09 | Open Play | Left Foot | Missed Shot | Selim Amallah |
| 23' |
Mallorca |
Samú Costa | 0.02 | Open Play | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | Martin Valjent |
| 23' |
Mallorca |
Takuma Asano | 0.35 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | — |
| 27' |
Mallorca |
Omar Mascarell | 0.50 | Open Play | Left Foot | Goal | Pablo Maffeo |
| 32' |
Real Valladolid |
Juan Latasa | 0.01 | Open Play | Left Foot | Saved Shot | — |
| 39' |
Real Valladolid |
Luis Pérez | 0.04 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Chuki |
| 42' |
Mallorca |
Martin Valjent | 0.39 | From Corner | — | Saved Shot | — |
| 42' |
Mallorca |
Omar Mascarell | 0.05 | From Corner | — | Missed Shot | Vedat Muriqi |
| 43' |
Mallorca |
Raíllo | 0.02 | From Corner | — | Missed Shot | Sergi Darder |
| 46' |
Real Valladolid |
Selim Amallah | 0.05 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | — |
| 48' |
Mallorca |
Sergi Darder | 0.09 | Open Play | Right Foot | Goal | Takuma Asano |
| 54' |
Mallorca |
Takuma Asano | 0.05 | Open Play | Left Foot | Missed Shot | Vedat Muriqi |
| 55' |
Mallorca |
Sergi Darder | 0.06 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | — |
| 60' |
Real Valladolid |
Selim Amallah | 0.03 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | Iván Sánchez |
| 63' |
Mallorca |
Vedat Muriqi | 0.09 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Johan Mojica |
| 69' |
Mallorca |
Antonio Sánchez | 0.06 | Open Play | Left Foot | Missed Shot | Cyle Larin |
| 79' |
Real Valladolid |
Adam Aznou | 0.04 | From Corner | Left Foot | Saved Shot | Iván Sánchez |
| 81' |
Real Valladolid |
Juan Latasa | 0.50 | Open Play | Left Foot | Saved Shot | Luis Pérez |
| 83' |
Real Valladolid |
Darwin Machís | 0.02 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Adam Aznou |
| 87' |
Real Valladolid |
Adam Aznou | 0.02 | From Corner | Left Foot | Missed Shot | — |
| 92' |
Real Valladolid |
Adam Aznou | 0.11 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | — |
| 92' |
Real Valladolid |
Juan Latasa | 0.04 | Open Play | — | Missed Shot | Luis Pérez |
Players
Mallorca
| Player | Min | G | A | Sh | KP | xG | xA | xGChain |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Omar Mascarell DMC | 90 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0.54 | 0.00 | 0.75 |
| Martin Valjent DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.39 | 0.02 | 0.75 |
| Samú Costa DMC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.02 | 0.00 | 0.26 |
| Raíllo DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.02 | 0.00 | 0.26 |
| Dominik Greif GK | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| Johan Mojica DL | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0.00 | 0.19 | 0.34 |
| Pablo Maffeo DR | 90 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.50 | 0.67 |
| Sergi Darder AML | 87 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0.15 | 0.02 | 0.26 |
| Dani Rodríguez AMC | 78 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.17 |
| Takuma Asano AMR | 68 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 0.49 | 0.09 | 0.58 |
| Vedat Muriqi FW | 68 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0.09 | 0.09 | 0.22 |
| Antonio Sánchez Sub | 22 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.06 | 0.00 | 0.06 |
| Cyle Larin Sub | 22 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.06 | 0.06 |
| Mateu Morey Sub | 12 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Toni Lato Sub | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
Real Valladolid
| Player | Min | G | A | Sh | KP | xG | xA | xGChain |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Juan Latasa FW | 90 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0.55 | 0.00 | 1.45 |
| Adam Aznou DL | 90 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 0.17 | 0.02 | 0.17 |
| Luis Pérez DR | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0.04 | 0.54 | 0.58 |
| André Ferreira GK | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.50 |
| Tamás Nikitscher MC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.75 |
| Cenk Özkacar DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.03 | 0.00 |
| Eray Cömert DMC | 84 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.57 | 0.00 | 0.48 |
| Selim Amallah MC | 76 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0.07 | 0.09 | 0.16 |
| Raul Moro ML | 76 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 0.00 | 1.23 | 1.25 |
| Chuki MR | 60 | 1 | 0 | 4 | 2 | 1.34 | 0.61 | 1.36 |
| Antonio Candela DC | 60 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Florian Grillitsch Sub | 30 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.03 |
| Iván Sánchez Sub | 30 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0.00 | 0.06 | 0.57 |
| Darwin Machís Sub | 14 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.02 | 0.00 | 0.02 |
| Anuar Mohamed Sub | 14 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Marcos de Sousa Sub | 6 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |