Mallorca v Sevilla — Prediction, Odds & Stats
Monday 2 February 2026 · ESP-La Liga · 2526
La Liga
xG Prediction generated
Shots
11 – 15
On target
6 – 4
Shots in box
10 – 8
xG per shot
0.28 – 0.08
Set-piece xG
0.82 – 0.25
Goals − xG
+0.93 – -0.25
AI prediction
ai-blend-oos No snapshot has been taken for this fixture yet; this is the stored price.Mallorca win
45.5%
Draw
26.5%
Sevilla win
28.0%
Probabilities, not certainties. How they are made: the methodology.
Was this pick made in advance?
A model whose name ends
-oos is out of sample: it was fitted only on matches
played before this one, so its pick is a genuine forecast rather than hindsight.
Anything without that suffix was fitted on all available data.What the chances say
Mallorca are conceding fewer than expected — 3.1 goals saved beyond what the chances suggest.
LWWDLWDLLW last 10
scored 14
from 14.8 xG
conceded 12
from 15.1 xG
Sevilla are finishing above their chances — 3.9 goals more than expected across 10 matches, which usually cools off.
LWWWLLWWLD last 10
scored 14
from 10.1 xG
conceded 13
from 13.4 xG
Finishing swings far more than chance creation, so a gap this size usually narrows. Over ten matches it is suggestive, not settled — a genuinely elite finisher beats expected goals for years.
What the model said
| Model | Home / Draw / Away | Expected goals | Likeliest score | O2.5 | BTTS | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ai-blend-oos | 1.52–1.14 | 0% | 0% | 0% | Home ✓ | |
| dc-xg-oos | 1.47–1.19 | 1-1 12% | 50% | 54% | Home ✓ |
A model whose name ends -oos was produced by the walk-forward backtest:
it was fitted only on matches played before this one, so the pick is genuinely out of sample.
Reading the xG timeline
Each step up is a shot; the height of the step is how good the chance was. Dots mark goals.
A side whose line climbs steadily created chances all match. A side that scored while its
line stayed flat took a rare chance — that is finishing luck, and it rarely repeats.
Expected goals by minute
Mallorca 3.07 xGSevilla 1.25 xG
Reading the shot map
Each circle is a shot, placed where it was taken. Bigger means a better chance;
filled circles are goals. Clusters near the goal mean a side worked good openings;
lots of small circles far out means shooting from poor positions and hoping.
Hover any circle for the player, minute and chance quality.
Shot map
Mallorca attacking right
Sevilla attacking left
Marker size is xG; filled markers are goals.
Every shot
| Min | Team | Player | xG | Situation | Body part | Result | Assisted by |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1' |
 Sevilla |
Juanlu Sanchez | 0.03 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | José Ángel Carmona |
| 2' |
Sevilla |
José Ángel Carmona | 0.02 | From Corner | Right Foot | Saved Shot | Juanlu Sanchez |
| 3' |
 Mallorca |
Samú Costa | 0.14 | Open Play | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | Vedat Muriqi |
| 7' |
Mallorca |
Jan Virgili | 0.02 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | Pablo Maffeo |
| 7' |
Mallorca |
Vedat Muriqi | 0.12 | Open Play | Left Foot | Missed Shot | Jan Virgili |
| 8' |
Mallorca |
Vedat Muriqi | 0.06 | From Corner | — | Missed Shot | Sergi Darder |
| 9' |
Sevilla |
Akor Adams | 0.04 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Batista Mendy |
| 15' |
Sevilla |
Batista Mendy | 0.02 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Lucien Agoume |
| 16' |
Sevilla |
Kike Salas | 0.02 | Open Play | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | — |
| 25' |
Mallorca |
Vedat Muriqi | 0.74 | Left Foot | Goal | — | |
| 28' |
Sevilla |
Akor Adams | 0.23 | Open Play | Left Foot | Saved Shot | Gabriel Suazo |
| 45' |
Sevilla |
Neal Maupay | 0.03 | Open Play | Right Foot | Goal | Peque |
| 50' |
Mallorca |
Vedat Muriqi | 0.02 | From Corner | — | Saved Shot | Sergi Darder |
| 52' |
Mallorca |
Jan Virgili | 0.05 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Vedat Muriqi |
| 52' |
Mallorca |
Samú Costa | 0.60 | Open Play | Left Foot | Goal | — |
| 63' |
Sevilla |
Alexis Sánchez | 0.55 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | — |
| 66' |
Sevilla |
Chidera Ejuke | 0.03 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Alexis Sánchez |
| 69' |
Sevilla |
Lucien Agoume | 0.05 | From Corner | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Gabriel Suazo |
| 73' |
Mallorca |
Sergi Darder | 0.54 | Open Play | — | Goal | Vedat Muriqi |
| 73' |
Mallorca |
Vedat Muriqi | 0.12 | Open Play | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | Samú Costa |
| 76' |
Sevilla |
Kike Salas | 0.03 | From Corner | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | — |
| 79' |
Sevilla |
Gabriel Suazo | 0.03 | Open Play | Left Foot | Saved Shot | Alexis Sánchez |
| 87' |
Sevilla |
Batista Mendy | 0.02 | From Corner | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | — |
| 87' |
Sevilla |
Kike Salas | 0.13 | From Corner | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | Batista Mendy |
| 89' |
Sevilla |
Batista Mendy | 0.01 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | — |
| 95' |
Mallorca |
Pablo Torre | 0.67 | Open Play | Left Foot | Goal | Mateo Joseph |
Players
Sevilla
| Player | Min | G | A | Sh | KP | xG | xA | xGChain |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Akor Adams FW | 90 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0.27 | 0.00 | 0.30 |
| Kike Salas DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0.18 | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| Batista Mendy MC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 2 | 0.06 | 0.17 | 0.14 |
| Lucien Agoume MC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.05 | 0.02 | 0.09 |
| Gabriel Suazo DL | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0.03 | 0.28 | 0.35 |
| José Ángel Carmona DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.02 | 0.03 | 0.26 |
| Odisseas Vlachodimos GK | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Neal Maupay FW | 84 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.03 | 0.00 | 0.33 |
| Fábio Cardoso DC | 84 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.27 |
| Juanlu Sanchez DR | 65 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.03 | 0.02 | 0.29 |
| Peque MC | 65 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.03 | 0.03 |
| Alexis Sánchez Sub | 25 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0.55 | 0.06 | 0.61 |
| Chidera Ejuke Sub | 25 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.03 | 0.00 | 0.03 |
| Djibril Sow Sub | 6 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.03 |
| Isaac Romero Sub | 6 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.03 |
Mallorca
| Player | Min | G | A | Sh | KP | xG | xA | xGChain |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Vedat Muriqi FW | 90 | 1 | 1 | 5 | 3 | 1.06 | 0.73 | 0.99 |
| Samú Costa DMC | 90 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0.74 | 0.12 | 0.92 |
| Martin Valjent DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| David López DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Pablo Maffeo DR | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.02 | 0.27 |
| Omar Mascarell DMC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Johan Mojica DL | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.24 |
| Leo Román GK | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Jan Virgili AML | 89 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0.07 | 0.12 | 0.33 |
| Sergi Darder AMC | 88 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0.54 | 0.08 | 0.65 |
| Takuma Asano AMR | 60 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.14 |
| Antonio Sánchez Sub | 30 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.12 |
| Manuel Morlanes Sub | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Pablo Torre Sub | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.67 | 0.00 | 0.67 |
| Mateo Joseph Sub | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.67 | 0.67 |
| Abdón Prats Sub | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.67 |