Manchester City v Bournemouth — Prediction, Odds & Stats
Sunday 2 November 2025 · ENG-Premier League · 2526
Premier League
xG Prediction generated
Shots
15 – 8
On target
7 – 5
Shots in box
13 – 4
xG per shot
0.17 – 0.11
Set-piece xG
0.11 – 0.64
Goals − xG
+0.51 – +0.10
AI prediction
ai-blend-oos No snapshot has been taken for this fixture yet; this is the stored price.Manchester City win
55.5%
Draw
24.4%
Bournemouth win
20.0%
Probabilities, not certainties. How they are made: the methodology.
Was this pick made in advance?
A model whose name ends
-oos is out of sample: it was fitted only on matches
played before this one, so its pick is a genuine forecast rather than hindsight.
Anything without that suffix was fitted on all available data.What the chances say
Manchester City are finishing below their chances — 2.7 goals fewer than expected across 10 matches, despite creating the openings. They are also conceding sharply fewer than expected — 4.3 goals saved beyond what the chances suggest.
WWDWWDLWWW last 10
scored 21
from 23.7 xG
conceded 9
from 13.3 xG
Bournemouth are conceding sharply fewer than expected — 5.1 goals saved beyond what the chances suggest.
WWDWWDDLDD last 10
scored 16
from 17.6 xG
conceded 11
from 16.1 xG
Finishing swings far more than chance creation, so a gap this size usually narrows. Over ten matches it is suggestive, not settled — a genuinely elite finisher beats expected goals for years.
What the model said
| Model | Home / Draw / Away | Expected goals | Likeliest score | O2.5 | BTTS | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ai-blend-oos | 1.76–0.97 | 0% | 0% | 0% | Home ✓ | |
| dc-xg-oos | 2.11–1.20 | 2-1 10% | 64% | 61% | Home ✓ |
A model whose name ends -oos was produced by the walk-forward backtest:
it was fitted only on matches played before this one, so the pick is genuinely out of sample.
Reading the xG timeline
Each step up is a shot; the height of the step is how good the chance was. Dots mark goals.
A side whose line climbs steadily created chances all match. A side that scored while its
line stayed flat took a rare chance — that is finishing luck, and it rarely repeats.
Expected goals by minute
Manchester City 2.49 xGBournemouth 0.90 xG
Reading the shot map
Each circle is a shot, placed where it was taken. Bigger means a better chance;
filled circles are goals. Clusters near the goal mean a side worked good openings;
lots of small circles far out means shooting from poor positions and hoping.
Hover any circle for the player, minute and chance quality.
Shot map
Manchester City attacking right
Bournemouth attacking left
Marker size is xG; filled markers are goals.
Every shot
| Min | Team | Player | xG | Situation | Body part | Result | Assisted by |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5' |
 Manchester City |
Phil Foden | 0.07 | Open Play | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | Jéremy Doku |
| 11' |
Manchester City |
Erling Haaland | 0.04 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | Nico González |
| 16' |
Manchester City |
Erling Haaland | 0.46 | Open Play | Left Foot | Goal | Mathis Cherki |
| 24' |
 Bournemouth |
Tyler Adams | 0.64 | From Corner | Right Foot | Goal | — |
| 28' |
Manchester City |
Mathis Cherki | 0.10 | Open Play | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | Jéremy Doku |
| 29' |
Manchester City |
Erling Haaland | 0.06 | From Corner | — | Missed Shot | Phil Foden |
| 32' |
Manchester City |
Erling Haaland | 0.32 | Open Play | Left Foot | Goal | Mathis Cherki |
| 33' |
Manchester City |
Nico O'Reilly | 0.50 | Open Play | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | Jéremy Doku |
| 34' |
Bournemouth |
Antoine Semenyo | 0.01 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | — |
| 36' |
Manchester City |
Erling Haaland | 0.39 | Open Play | Left Foot | Saved Shot | Jéremy Doku |
| 47' |
Manchester City |
Erling Haaland | 0.09 | Open Play | — | Missed Shot | Nico O'Reilly |
| 48' |
Bournemouth |
Antoine Semenyo | 0.01 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | Eli Junior Kroupi |
| 50' |
Bournemouth |
Eli Junior Kroupi | 0.12 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | David Brooks |
| 50' |
Manchester City |
Mathis Cherki | 0.05 | Direct Freekick | Right Foot | Saved Shot | — |
| 52' |
Bournemouth |
Eli Junior Kroupi | 0.08 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | Alex Scott |
| 58' |
Bournemouth |
David Brooks | 0.01 | Open Play | Left Foot | Saved Shot | — |
| 59' |
Manchester City |
Nico O'Reilly | 0.10 | Open Play | Left Foot | Goal | Phil Foden |
| 65' |
Bournemouth |
Adrien Truffert | 0.02 | Open Play | Left Foot | Missed Shot | Lewis Cook |
| 66' |
Manchester City |
Mathis Cherki | 0.05 | Open Play | Left Foot | Missed Shot | Phil Foden |
| 77' |
Manchester City |
Tijjani Reijnders | 0.04 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Sávio |
| 87' |
Manchester City |
Omar Marmoush | 0.14 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Sávio |
| 91' |
Bournemouth |
Marcus Tavernier | 0.02 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Marcos Senesi |
| 93' |
Manchester City |
Tijjani Reijnders | 0.08 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | — |
Players
Manchester City
| Player | Min | G | A | Sh | KP | xG | xA | xGChain |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nico O'Reilly DL | 90 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0.60 | 0.09 | 1.07 |
| Phil Foden MC | 90 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 0.07 | 0.21 | 1.11 |
| Bernardo Silva MC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.49 |
| Gianluigi Donnarumma GK | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.51 |
| Josko Gvardiol DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.16 |
| Matheus Nunes DR | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 1.04 |
| Nico González MC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.04 | 1.56 |
| Rúben Dias DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 1.04 |
| Erling Haaland FW | 87 | 2 | 0 | 6 | 0 | 1.35 | 0.00 | 1.85 |
| Mathis Cherki AMC | 78 | 0 | 2 | 3 | 2 | 0.21 | 0.79 | 1.04 |
| Jéremy Doku AMC | 78 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 0.00 | 1.06 | 1.24 |
| Tijjani Reijnders Sub | 12 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0.12 | 0.00 | 0.12 |
| Sávio Sub | 12 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0.00 | 0.19 | 0.19 |
| Omar Marmoush Sub | 3 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.14 | 0.00 | 0.14 |
| Rodri Sub | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Rayan Ait Nouri Sub | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
Bournemouth
| Player | Min | G | A | Sh | KP | xG | xA | xGChain |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Antoine Semenyo AML | 90 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0.02 | 0.00 | 0.13 |
| Adrien Truffert DL | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.02 | 0.00 | 0.02 |
| Marcus Tavernier AMC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.02 | 0.00 | 0.12 |
| Bafode Diakite DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Marcos Senesi DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.02 | 0.02 |
| Djordje Petrovic GK | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Tyler Adams DMC | 85 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.64 | 0.00 | 0.08 |
| Alex Scott DMC | 78 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.08 | 0.08 |
| Eli Junior Kroupi FW | 67 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0.20 | 0.01 | 0.21 |
| David Brooks AMR | 67 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.01 | 0.12 | 0.21 |
| Alejandro Jiménez DR | 67 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Justin Kluivert Sub | 23 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Lewis Cook Sub | 23 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.02 | 0.02 |
| Evanilson Sub | 23 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Ryan Christie Sub | 12 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Ben Doak Sub | 5 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |