Manchester City v Bournemouth — Prediction, Odds & Stats
Sunday 23 August 2026 · ENG-Premier League · 2627
Premier League
xG Prediction generated
Shots
13 – 5
On target
6 – 4
Shots in box
11 – 4
xG per shot
0.19 – 0.14
Set-piece xG
0.92 – 0.08
Goals − xG
-0.47 – +0.29
AI prediction
ai-blend-oos No snapshot has been taken for this fixture yet; this is the stored price.Manchester City win
61.5%
Draw
22.6%
Bournemouth win
15.9%
Probabilities, not certainties. How they are made: the methodology.
Was this pick made in advance?
A model whose name ends
-oos is out of sample: it was fitted only on matches
played before this one, so its pick is a genuine forecast rather than hindsight.
Anything without that suffix was fitted on all available data.What the chances say
Manchester City are finishing below their chances — 2.7 goals fewer than expected across 10 matches, despite creating the openings. They are also conceding sharply fewer than expected — 4.3 goals saved beyond what the chances suggest.
WWDWWDLWWW last 10
scored 21
from 23.7 xG
conceded 9
from 13.3 xG
Bournemouth are conceding sharply fewer than expected — 5.1 goals saved beyond what the chances suggest.
WWDWWDDLDD last 10
scored 16
from 17.6 xG
conceded 11
from 16.1 xG
Finishing swings far more than chance creation, so a gap this size usually narrows. Over ten matches it is suggestive, not settled — a genuinely elite finisher beats expected goals for years.
What the model said
| Model | Home / Draw / Away | Expected goals | Likeliest score | O2.5 | BTTS | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ai-blend-oos | 2.06–0.97 | 0% | 0% | 0% | Home ✓ | |
| dc-xg-oos | 2.21–1.31 | 2-1 9% | 68% | 65% | Home ✓ |
A model whose name ends -oos was produced by the walk-forward backtest:
it was fitted only on matches played before this one, so the pick is genuinely out of sample.
Reading the xG timeline
Each step up is a shot; the height of the step is how good the chance was. Dots mark goals.
A side whose line climbs steadily created chances all match. A side that scored while its
line stayed flat took a rare chance — that is finishing luck, and it rarely repeats.
Expected goals by minute
Manchester City 2.47 xGBournemouth 0.71 xG
Reading the shot map
Each circle is a shot, placed where it was taken. Bigger means a better chance;
filled circles are goals. Clusters near the goal mean a side worked good openings;
lots of small circles far out means shooting from poor positions and hoping.
Hover any circle for the player, minute and chance quality.
Shot map
Manchester City attacking right
Bournemouth attacking left
Marker size is xG; filled markers are goals.
Every shot
| Min | Team | Player | xG | Situation | Body part | Result | Assisted by |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3' |
 Manchester City |
Rico Lewis | 0.35 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | Phil Foden |
| 4' |
Manchester City |
Nico O'Reilly | 0.16 | From Corner | — | Missed Shot | Phil Foden |
| 7' |
Manchester City |
Phil Foden | 0.06 | Open Play | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | Nico O'Reilly |
| 13' |
 Bournemouth |
Rayan | 0.07 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | — |
| 25' |
Bournemouth |
Marcus Tavernier | 0.44 | Open Play | Left Foot | Goal | Evanilson |
| 32' |
Manchester City |
Erling Haaland | 0.05 | Open Play | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | — |
| 38' |
Manchester City |
Erling Haaland | 0.03 | Open Play | — | Saved Shot | Rúben Dias |
| 39' |
Bournemouth |
Marcus Tavernier | 0.04 | Open Play | Left Foot | Missed Shot | Justin Kluivert |
| 40' |
Bournemouth |
Justin Kluivert | 0.08 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | Rayan |
| 43' |
Manchester City |
Erling Haaland | 0.11 | From Corner | Left Foot | Missed Shot | — |
| 50' |
Manchester City |
Marc Guehi | 0.53 | From Corner | — | Missed Shot | Elliot Anderson |
| 66' |
Manchester City |
Antoine Semenyo | 0.05 | Open Play | Left Foot | Saved Shot | — |
| 67' |
Manchester City |
Phil Foden | 0.05 | Open Play | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | Mathis Cherki |
| 71' |
Manchester City |
Erling Haaland | 0.09 | Open Play | Left Foot | Missed Shot | Mathis Cherki |
| 74' |
Manchester City |
Erling Haaland | 0.48 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | Marc Guehi |
| 78' |
Bournemouth |
Daniel Jebbison | 0.08 | Set Piece | — | Saved Shot | Marcus Tavernier |
| 83' |
Manchester City |
Marc Guehi | 0.11 | From Corner | — | Goal | Mathis Cherki |
| 90' |
Manchester City |
Josko Gvardiol | 0.41 | Open Play | Right Foot | Goal | Mathis Cherki |
Players
Manchester City
| Player | Min | G | A | Sh | KP | xG | xA | xGChain |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Erling Haaland FW | 90 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 0 | 0.75 | 0.00 | 0.99 |
| Marc Guehi DMC | 90 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0.65 | 0.48 | 1.45 |
| Josko Gvardiol DL | 90 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.41 | 0.00 | 1.37 |
| Antoine Semenyo AML | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.05 | 0.00 | 1.37 |
| Rúben Dias DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.03 | 1.45 |
| Gianluigi Donnarumma GK | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Abduqodir Khusanov DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 1.08 |
| Phil Foden AMR | 84 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 0.10 | 0.51 | 1.02 |
| Nico O'Reilly AMC | 65 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.16 | 0.06 | 0.06 |
| Elliot Anderson DMC | 65 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.53 | 0.41 |
| Rico Lewis DR | 59 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.35 | 0.00 | 0.41 |
| Matheus Nunes Sub | 31 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.61 |
| Mathis Cherki Sub | 25 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 4 | 0.00 | 0.66 | 1.02 |
| Mateo Kovacic Sub | 25 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 1.02 |
| Jack Grealish Sub | 6 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.41 |
Bournemouth
| Player | Min | G | A | Sh | KP | xG | xA | xGChain |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Marcus Tavernier AML | 90 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0.48 | 0.08 | 0.48 |
| Rayan AMR | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.07 | 0.08 | 0.59 |
| Adrien Truffert DL | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.08 |
| Alex Scott DMC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.44 |
| Djordje Petrovic GK | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.44 |
| Adam Smith DR | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.52 |
| António Silva DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| James Hill DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.56 |
| Lewis Cook DMC | 78 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.52 |
| Justin Kluivert AMC | 77 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.08 | 0.04 | 0.12 |
| Evanilson FW | 77 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.44 | 0.44 |
| Daniel Jebbison Sub | 13 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.08 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Alex Tóth Sub | 13 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Tyler Adams Sub | 12 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Ben Doak Sub | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |