Manchester City v Southampton — Prediction, Odds & Stats
Saturday 26 October 2024 · ENG-Premier League · 2425
Premier League
xG Prediction generated
Shots
22 – 5
On target
7 – 2
Shots in box
13 – 5
xG per shot
0.14 – 0.07
Set-piece xG
0.83 – 0.03
Goals − xG
-2.16 – -0.37
AI prediction
dc-xg-oos No snapshot has been taken for this fixture yet; this is the stored price.Manchester City win
86.3%
Draw
8.9%
Southampton win
4.8%
Probabilities, not certainties. How they are made: the methodology.
Was this pick made in advance?
A model whose name ends
-oos is out of sample: it was fitted only on matches
played before this one, so its pick is a genuine forecast rather than hindsight.
Anything without that suffix was fitted on all available data.What the chances say
Manchester City are finishing below their chances — 2.7 goals fewer than expected across 10 matches, despite creating the openings. They are also conceding sharply fewer than expected — 4.3 goals saved beyond what the chances suggest.
WWDWWDLWWW last 10
scored 21
from 23.7 xG
conceded 9
from 13.3 xG
Southampton have scored 6 from 7.4 expected and conceded 18 from 18.4 — both ends in line with the chances, so the recent record is a fair reflection.
LDLLDLLDLL last 10
scored 6
from 7.4 xG
conceded 18
from 18.4 xG
Finishing swings far more than chance creation, so a gap this size usually narrows. Over ten matches it is suggestive, not settled — a genuinely elite finisher beats expected goals for years.
What the model said
| Model | Home / Draw / Away | Expected goals | Likeliest score | O2.5 | BTTS | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| dc-xg-oos | 3.50–0.80 | 3-0 10% | 80% | 54% | Home ✓ |
A model whose name ends -oos was produced by the walk-forward backtest:
it was fitted only on matches played before this one, so the pick is genuinely out of sample.
Reading the xG timeline
Each step up is a shot; the height of the step is how good the chance was. Dots mark goals.
A side whose line climbs steadily created chances all match. A side that scored while its
line stayed flat took a rare chance — that is finishing luck, and it rarely repeats.
Expected goals by minute
Manchester City 3.16 xGSouthampton 0.37 xG
Reading the shot map
Each circle is a shot, placed where it was taken. Bigger means a better chance;
filled circles are goals. Clusters near the goal mean a side worked good openings;
lots of small circles far out means shooting from poor positions and hoping.
Hover any circle for the player, minute and chance quality.
Shot map
Manchester City attacking right
Southampton attacking left
Marker size is xG; filled markers are goals.
Every shot
| Min | Team | Player | xG | Situation | Body part | Result | Assisted by |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3' |
 Manchester City |
Rúben Dias | 0.02 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | Josko Gvardiol |
| 4' |
Manchester City |
Erling Haaland | 0.47 | Open Play | Left Foot | Goal | Matheus Nunes |
| 7' |
Manchester City |
Josko Gvardiol | 0.03 | Open Play | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | Rúben Dias |
| 8' |
Manchester City |
Sávio | 0.03 | Open Play | Left Foot | Saved Shot | Bernardo Silva |
| 10' |
Manchester City |
Matheus Nunes | 0.02 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Bernardo Silva |
| 23' |
Manchester City |
Mateo Kovacic | 0.10 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Josko Gvardiol |
| 39' |
Manchester City |
Josko Gvardiol | 0.03 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Matheus Nunes |
| 41' |
Manchester City |
Erling Haaland | 0.13 | Open Play | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | Phil Foden |
| 43' |
Manchester City |
Mateo Kovacic | 0.08 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | Josko Gvardiol |
| 44' |
Manchester City |
Erling Haaland | 0.02 | From Corner | — | Missed Shot | Phil Foden |
| 45' |
Manchester City |
Phil Foden | 0.10 | Open Play | Left Foot | Missed Shot | Sávio |
| 45' |
 Southampton |
Cameron Archer | 0.23 | Open Play | Left Foot | Shot On Post | Jack Stephens |
| 49' |
Manchester City |
Erling Haaland | 0.13 | From Corner | — | Blocked Shot | Phil Foden |
| 49' |
Manchester City |
Erling Haaland | 0.05 | From Corner | — | Saved Shot | — |
| 49' |
Southampton |
Adam Armstrong | 0.03 | Open Play | Left Foot | Saved Shot | Kyle Walker-Peters |
| 51' |
Manchester City |
Erling Haaland | 0.58 | Set Piece | Left Foot | Missed Shot | Sávio |
| 51' |
Manchester City |
Mateo Kovacic | 0.03 | Set Piece | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Phil Foden |
| 59' |
Manchester City |
Matheus Nunes | 0.09 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | — |
| 62' |
Manchester City |
Erling Haaland | 0.63 | Open Play | — | Missed Shot | Sávio |
| 68' |
Manchester City |
Sávio | 0.03 | From Corner | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | — |
| 69' |
Manchester City |
Phil Foden | 0.03 | Open Play | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | Sávio |
| 72' |
Manchester City |
Phil Foden | 0.12 | Open Play | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | Manuel Akanji |
| 74' |
Southampton |
Adam Armstrong | 0.06 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Mateus Fernandes |
| 85' |
Manchester City |
Manuel Akanji | 0.02 | Open Play | Left Foot | Saved Shot | Sávio |
| 89' |
Southampton |
Paul Onuachu | 0.03 | Set Piece | — | Saved Shot | James Bree |
| 92' |
Southampton |
Paul Onuachu | 0.02 | Open Play | — | Blocked Shot | Adam Armstrong |
| 95' |
Manchester City |
Erling Haaland | 0.43 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | Phil Foden |
Players
Manchester City
| Player | Min | G | A | Sh | KP | xG | xA | xGChain |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Erling Haaland FW | 90 | 1 | 0 | 8 | 0 | 2.44 | 0.00 | 1.69 |
| Phil Foden MC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 5 | 0.25 | 0.73 | 0.84 |
| Mateo Kovacic DMC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0.20 | 0.00 | 0.77 |
| Sávio MR | 90 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 5 | 0.06 | 1.36 | 0.96 |
| Josko Gvardiol DL | 90 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 3 | 0.06 | 0.19 | 0.89 |
| Manuel Akanji DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.02 | 0.12 | 1.32 |
| Rúben Dias DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.02 | 0.03 | 0.88 |
| Bernardo Silva MC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0.00 | 0.06 | 0.61 |
| Rico Lewis DR | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.82 |
| Ederson GK | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.17 |
| Matheus Nunes ML | 87 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 0.12 | 0.50 | 0.91 |
| Ilkay Gündogan Sub | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.43 |
| John Stones Sub | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
Southampton
| Player | Min | G | A | Sh | KP | xG | xA | xGChain |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mateus Fernandes ML | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.06 | 0.32 |
| Jan Bednarek DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.34 |
| Jack Stephens DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.23 | 0.32 |
| Kyle Walker-Peters DR | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.03 | 0.11 |
| Taylor Harwood-Bellis DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.32 |
| Aaron Ramsdale GK | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.32 |
| Cameron Archer FW | 88 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.23 | 0.00 | 0.29 |
| Flynn Downes MC | 88 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.29 |
| Ryan Manning DL | 78 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.06 |
| Adam Lallana MC | 61 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Tyler Dibling MR | 47 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Adam Armstrong Sub | 43 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0.09 | 0.02 | 0.11 |
| Joe Ayodele-Aribo Sub | 29 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.06 |
| James Bree Sub | 12 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.03 | 0.02 |
| Paul Onuachu Sub | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0.05 | 0.00 | 0.02 |
| Kamaldeen Sulemana Sub | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |