Manchester City v Sunderland — Prediction, Odds & Stats
Saturday 6 December 2025 · ENG-Premier League · 2526
Premier League
xG Prediction generated
Shots
18 – 8
On target
5 – 1
Shots in box
15 – 4
xG per shot
0.14 – 0.08
Set-piece xG
0.15 – 0.04
Goals − xG
+0.57 – -0.63
AI prediction
ai-blend-oos No snapshot has been taken for this fixture yet; this is the stored price.Manchester City win
57.5%
Draw
24.3%
Sunderland win
18.2%
Probabilities, not certainties. How they are made: the methodology.
Was this pick made in advance?
A model whose name ends
-oos is out of sample: it was fitted only on matches
played before this one, so its pick is a genuine forecast rather than hindsight.
Anything without that suffix was fitted on all available data.What the chances say
Manchester City are finishing below their chances — 2.7 goals fewer than expected across 10 matches, despite creating the openings. They are also conceding sharply fewer than expected — 4.3 goals saved beyond what the chances suggest.
WWDWWDLWWW last 10
scored 21
from 23.7 xG
conceded 9
from 13.3 xG
Sunderland have scored 13 from 14.6 expected and conceded 15 from 15.4 — both ends in line with the chances, so the recent record is a fair reflection.
WLLDDWWLWD last 10
scored 13
from 14.6 xG
conceded 15
from 15.4 xG
Finishing swings far more than chance creation, so a gap this size usually narrows. Over ten matches it is suggestive, not settled — a genuinely elite finisher beats expected goals for years.
What the model said
| Model | Home / Draw / Away | Expected goals | Likeliest score | O2.5 | BTTS | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ai-blend-oos | 1.68–0.83 | 0% | 0% | 0% | Home ✓ | |
| dc-xg-oos | 2.07–0.79 | 2-0 12% | 54% | 48% | Home ✓ |
A model whose name ends -oos was produced by the walk-forward backtest:
it was fitted only on matches played before this one, so the pick is genuinely out of sample.
Reading the xG timeline
Each step up is a shot; the height of the step is how good the chance was. Dots mark goals.
A side whose line climbs steadily created chances all match. A side that scored while its
line stayed flat took a rare chance — that is finishing luck, and it rarely repeats.
Expected goals by minute
Manchester City 2.43 xGSunderland 0.63 xG
Reading the shot map
Each circle is a shot, placed where it was taken. Bigger means a better chance;
filled circles are goals. Clusters near the goal mean a side worked good openings;
lots of small circles far out means shooting from poor positions and hoping.
Hover any circle for the player, minute and chance quality.
Shot map
Manchester City attacking right
Sunderland attacking left
Marker size is xG; filled markers are goals.
Every shot
| Min | Team | Player | xG | Situation | Body part | Result | Assisted by |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10' |
 Manchester City |
Bernardo Silva | 0.05 | Open Play | Left Foot | Missed Shot | Mathis Cherki |
| 12' |
Manchester City |
Mathis Cherki | 0.08 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Jéremy Doku |
| 15' |
 Sunderland |
Enzo Le Fée | 0.02 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Bertrand Traoré |
| 17' |
Manchester City |
Phil Foden | 0.35 | Open Play | Left Foot | Missed Shot | Jéremy Doku |
| 18' |
Manchester City |
Phil Foden | 0.02 | Open Play | Left Foot | Missed Shot | Rúben Dias |
| 22' |
Sunderland |
Wilson Isidor | 0.15 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Nordi Mukiele |
| 30' |
Manchester City |
Rúben Dias | 0.02 | Open Play | Right Foot | Goal | Mathis Cherki |
| 34' |
Manchester City |
Josko Gvardiol | 0.07 | From Corner | — | Goal | Phil Foden |
| 45' |
Manchester City |
Jéremy Doku | 0.06 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Phil Foden |
| 49' |
Manchester City |
Nico O'Reilly | 0.11 | Open Play | Left Foot | Missed Shot | Jéremy Doku |
| 51' |
Manchester City |
Jéremy Doku | 0.08 | Open Play | Right Foot | Shot On Post | Mathis Cherki |
| 51' |
Manchester City |
Phil Foden | 0.08 | Open Play | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | — |
| 51' |
Manchester City |
Phil Foden | 0.05 | Open Play | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | — |
| 52' |
Sunderland |
Wilson Isidor | 0.32 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | — |
| 54' |
Sunderland |
Granit Xhaka | 0.03 | From Corner | Right Foot | Shot On Post | — |
| 58' |
Manchester City |
Erling Haaland | 0.58 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Mathis Cherki |
| 58' |
Sunderland |
Granit Xhaka | 0.06 | Open Play | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | Chemsdine Talbi |
| 62' |
Manchester City |
Nico González | 0.04 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Jéremy Doku |
| 64' |
Manchester City |
Phil Foden | 0.39 | Open Play | — | Goal | Mathis Cherki |
| 67' |
Sunderland |
Noah Sadiki | 0.02 | Open Play | Left Foot | Missed Shot | — |
| 73' |
Manchester City |
Tijjani Reijnders | 0.15 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Mathis Cherki |
| 75' |
Manchester City |
Mathis Cherki | 0.12 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | Jéremy Doku |
| 78' |
Sunderland |
Romaine Mundle | 0.02 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Lutsharel Geertruida |
| 87' |
Sunderland |
Omar Alderete | 0.01 | From Corner | — | Blocked Shot | Chemsdine Talbi |
| 89' |
Manchester City |
Jéremy Doku | 0.11 | Open Play | Left Foot | Saved Shot | Nico González |
| 90' |
Manchester City |
Rúben Dias | 0.07 | From Corner | — | Blocked Shot | Sávio |
Players
Manchester City
| Player | Min | G | A | Sh | KP | xG | xA | xGChain |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jéremy Doku AMC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 5 | 0.26 | 0.69 | 1.25 |
| Nico O'Reilly DL | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.11 | 0.00 | 0.55 |
| Rúben Dias DC | 90 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0.09 | 0.02 | 0.32 |
| Nico González MC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.04 | 0.11 | 1.72 |
| Gianluigi Donnarumma GK | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.12 |
| Matheus Nunes DR | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 1.19 |
| Mathis Cherki AMC | 85 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 6 | 0.20 | 1.27 | 1.85 |
| Bernardo Silva MC | 85 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.05 | 0.00 | 1.57 |
| Josko Gvardiol DC | 73 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.07 | 0.00 | 0.86 |
| Phil Foden MC | 72 | 1 | 1 | 5 | 2 | 0.89 | 0.14 | 1.65 |
| Erling Haaland FW | 72 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.58 | 0.00 | 1.05 |
| Tijjani Reijnders Sub | 18 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.15 | 0.00 | 0.26 |
| Omar Marmoush Sub | 18 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.11 |
| Nathan Aké Sub | 17 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Sávio Sub | 5 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.07 | 0.00 |
| Rico Lewis Sub | 5 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
Sunderland
| Player | Min | G | A | Sh | KP | xG | xA | xGChain |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Enzo Le Fée ML | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.02 | 0.00 | 0.04 |
| Omar Alderete DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.01 | 0.00 | 0.08 |
| Robin Roefs GK | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.02 |
| Dan Ballard DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.04 |
| Trai Hume DL | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Nordi Mukiele DR | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.15 | 0.18 |
| Lutsharel Geertruida DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.02 | 0.08 |
| Granit Xhaka MC | 75 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0.09 | 0.00 | 0.08 |
| Noah Sadiki MC | 75 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.02 | 0.00 | 0.10 |
| Wilson Isidor FW | 59 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0.46 | 0.00 | 0.46 |
| Bertrand Traoré MR | 59 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.02 | 0.02 |
| Chemsdine Talbi Sub | 31 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0.00 | 0.07 | 0.08 |
| Brian Brobbey Sub | 31 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Romaine Mundle Sub | 15 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.02 | 0.00 | 0.02 |
| Simon Adingra Sub | 15 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.02 |
| Luke O'Nien Sub | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |