Manchester City v Sunderland — Prediction, Odds & Stats

Saturday 19 September 2026 · ENG-Premier League · 2627

Premier League xG Prediction generated 5 Sep 2026, 14:39

Manchester City

10:00

Sunderland

AI prediction

ai-blend v1.0 daily Priced 7 Sep, 07:51 · 294h before kick-off

Manchester City win

72.5%

model 70.4%

Draw

18.1%

model 18.3%

Sunderland win

9.5%

model 11.4%

72189

Calibrated: the model's number corrected by how often calls at that confidence have landed, out of sample (75 settled matches in the thinnest band), then normalised. The smaller figure is the raw model output.

Top 5 scorelines

2-0 12.7%
1-0 11.7%
2-1 9.5%
3-0 9.3%
1-1 8.7%

Goals

Over 2.5	56.1%	Under 2.5	43.9%
BTTS yes	46.6%	BTTS no	53.4%
Manchester City 1+	88.8%	Manchester City 2+	64.2%
Sunderland 1+	52.5%	Sunderland 2+	17.2%

Expected goals 2.19 – 0.75. Every market above is read off one scoreline distribution.

Footing

AI confidence

99/100

Data quality

100/100

Model agreement

99%

★ Best pick

Manchester City to lead by 2 at any time

Lead at any time · usually 30%

50.7% fair odds 1.97

strong signal · 1166 settled matches behind the band

★ Most likely to land

Under 2.5 in 1st half

Over/Under 1HT · usually 87%

83.5% fair odds 1.20

moderate signal · 388 settled matches behind the band

Positive factors

Manchester City carry the stronger rating, 1801 Elo against 1566.
Manchester City have created 2.37 xG a match over their last five while Sunderland have allowed 1.54.
Form is good: 2.00 points a match from the last five.
At home Manchester City average 2.47 xG a match.

Risk factors

No specific risk flags beyond the usual variance of a football match.

Why the model thinks this

The price

Manchester City have an estimated 72.5% win probability, against 18.1% for the draw and 9.5% for Sunderland. Expected goals from the ensemble are 2.19 for Manchester City and 0.74 for Sunderland.

Why Manchester City

Manchester City carry the stronger rating, 1801 Elo against 1566. Manchester City have created 2.37 xG a match over their last five while Sunderland have allowed 1.54. Form is good: 2.00 points a match from the last five. At home Manchester City average 2.47 xG a match.

Why the draw is live

The draw sits at 18.1%. Draws run at 25% in this competition.

Why Sunderland can win

Sunderland have created 1.46 xG a match over their last five while Manchester City have allowed 1.33. Form is good: 2.00 points a match from the last five. Away from home Sunderland average 1.42 xG a match. Their last eleven was closer to full strength: Manchester City were missing 1.10 expected goal involvements a match against 0.41.

Key players

Manchester City's leading contributors by expected goal involvements a match: Erling Haaland (0.84), Mathis Cherki (0.41), Phil Foden (0.36). Sunderland's leading contributors by expected goal involvements a match: Enzo Le Fée (0.37), Brian Brobbey (0.33), Habib Diarra (0.18).

Availability

1 of Manchester City's top three contributors did not start their last match. 27% of Manchester City's last eleven are new to the club this window. 1 of Sunderland's top three contributors did not start their last match.

The matchup, as far as the data reaches

Manchester City: 65% possession, 15.4 shots a match, 9.6 faced, 0.46 xG a match from set pieces. Sunderland: 50% possession, 13.0 shots a match, 10.2 faced, 0.17 xG a match from set pieces.

Inputs last refreshed: matches 2026-09-07 06:03 · team_stats 2026-09-07 06:05 · availability 2026-09-07 07:51 · prediction 2026-09-05 18:39 ·

Manchester City are the model's most likely outcome at 72.5%. The likeliest scoreline is 2-0 at 12.7%. Confidence 99/100, data quality 100/100. These are probabilities, not certainties: the less likely outcome happens as often as its number says.

Written from the numbers the model saw, not by a language model; nothing here is a statistic the snapshot does not hold. How predictions work.

Was this pick made in advance?

A model whose name ends -oos is out of sample: it was fitted only on matches played before this one, so its pick is a genuine forecast rather than hindsight. Anything without that suffix was fitted on all available data.

What the chances say

Manchester City are finishing below their chances — 2.7 goals fewer than expected across 10 matches, despite creating the openings. They are also conceding sharply fewer than expected — 4.3 goals saved beyond what the chances suggest.

WWDWWDLWWW last 10 scored 21 from 23.7 xG conceded 9 from 13.3 xG

Sunderland have scored 13 from 14.6 expected and conceded 15 from 15.4 — both ends in line with the chances, so the recent record is a fair reflection.

WLLDDWWLWD last 10 scored 13 from 14.6 xG conceded 15 from 15.4 xG

Finishing swings far more than chance creation, so a gap this size usually narrows. Over ten matches it is suggestive, not settled — a genuinely elite finisher beats expected goals for years.

What the model said

Model	Home / Draw / Away	Expected goals	Likeliest score	O2.5	BTTS
ai-blend	701811	2.19–0.75	0%	0%	0%
dc-goals	692110	2.11–0.70	2-0 13%	53%	45%
dc-xg	701912	2.17–0.77	2-0 12%	56%	48%

A model whose name ends -oos was produced by the walk-forward backtest: it was fitted only on matches played before this one, so the pick is genuinely out of sample.

Using this section

Every selection the model prices for this fixture, grouped by family — click a heading to open it. Calibrated is the number to read; lift shows how far it sits from what that selection normally does in this league. To compare selections across fixtures instead, use the Radar.

All markets

Every selection below comes from the same scoreline distribution, so they are mutually consistent rather than independently guessed. Calibrated is the model corrected by its own out-of-sample record; lift is how much more likely that is than the selection simply being true in this league anyway.

1X2 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Manchester City to win	70.8%	73.6%	43.1%	1.71×	1.36
Draw	17.4%	19.3%	24.7%	0.78×	5.17
Sunderland to win	11.8%	13.3%	32.3%	0.41×	7.53

1X2 & GG/NG 6

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Manchester City & not both score	39.2%	33.2%	20.3%	1.64×	3.01
Manchester City & both teams score	31.6%	29.7%	22.9%	1.30×	3.37
Draw & both teams score	13.2%	13.3%	20.0%	0.66×	7.54
Sunderland & both teams score	6.2%	8.4%	15.5%	0.54×	11.94
Sunderland & not both score	5.5%	8.4%	16.8%	0.50×	11.94
Draw & not both score	4.2%	4.9%	4.9%	1.00×	20.56

1X2 & Over/Under 18

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Manchester City & over 1.5	60.9%	54.6%	36.7%	1.49×	1.83
Manchester City & over 2.5	49.4%	45.2%	30.2%	1.50×	2.21
Manchester City & under 3.5	39.8%	34.9%	26.8%	1.30×	2.87
Manchester City & over 3.5	30.9%	30.9%	16.4%	1.88×	3.24
Manchester City & under 2.5	21.4%	21.7%	13.0%	1.67×	4.62
Draw & over 1.5	13.2%	12.9%	20.0%	0.64×	7.77
Draw & under 2.5	12.5%	12.9%	16.3%	0.79×	7.77
Draw & under 3.5	12.5%	12.9%	16.3%	0.79×	7.77
Manchester City & under 1.5	9.9%	7.9%	6.5%	1.21×	12.69
Sunderland & under 3.5	8.9%	7.9%	21.7%	0.36×	12.69
Sunderland & over 1.5	8.2%	7.9%	25.4%	0.31×	12.70
Sunderland & over 2.5	6.8%	7.9%	20.0%	0.39×	12.70
Sunderland & under 2.5	5.0%	7.9%	12.4%	0.64×	12.70
Draw & over 2.5	5.0%	4.8%	8.5%	0.56×	20.93
Draw & over 3.5	5.0%	4.8%	8.5%	0.56×	20.93
Draw & under 1.5	4.2%	4.8%	4.9%	0.98×	20.93
Sunderland & under 1.5	3.5%	4.8%	6.9%	0.69×	20.94
Sunderland & over 3.5	2.9%	4.8%	10.7%	0.45×	20.94

1X2 1UP 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Manchester City (1UP)	80.5%	86.7%	62.1%	1.40×	1.15
Sunderland (1UP)	28.9%	27.1%	51.4%	0.53×	3.69

1X2 2UP 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Manchester City (2UP)	70.8%	80.1%	44.9%	1.78×	1.25
Sunderland (2UP)	11.8%	13.3%	34.5%	0.38×	7.54

2nd half 1X2 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Manchester City to win 2nd half	48.6%	45.6%	36.3%	1.25×	2.19
2nd half drawn	32.5%	34.5%	30.9%	1.12×	2.90
Sunderland to win 2nd half	18.9%	19.1%	32.9%	0.58×	5.23

Asian handicap 8

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Manchester City (+0.5)	88.2%	88.5%	67.7%	1.31×	1.13
Sunderland (+2.5)	73.3%	73.7%	89.2%	0.83×	1.36
Manchester City (-0.5)	70.8%	73.7%	43.1%	1.71×	1.36
Sunderland (+1.5)	52.3%	52.3%	76.0%	0.69×	1.91
Manchester City (-1.5)	47.7%	47.7%	24.0%	1.99×	2.10
Sunderland (+0.5)	29.2%	26.3%	56.9%	0.46×	3.80
Manchester City (-2.5)	26.7%	26.3%	10.8%	2.45×	3.80
Sunderland (-0.5)	11.8%	11.5%	32.3%	0.36×	8.71

Away clean sheet 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Sunderland to concede	90.2%	91.7%	78.4%	1.17×	1.09
Sunderland clean sheet	9.8%	8.3%	21.6%	0.39×	12.03

Away clean sheet 1HT 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Sunderland to concede in 1st half	70.4%	77.1%	51.4%	1.50×	1.30
Sunderland clean sheet in 1st half	29.6%	22.9%	48.6%	0.47×	4.37

Away corners O/U 10

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Sunderland under 6.5 corners	96.4%	95.6%	—	—	1.05
Sunderland under 5.5 corners	92.2%	90.0%	—	—	1.11
Sunderland under 4.5 corners	84.4%	81.5%	—	—	1.23
Sunderland under 3.5 corners	71.3%	71.6%	—	—	1.40
Sunderland under 2.5 corners	52.2%	53.1%	—	—	1.88
Sunderland over 2.5 corners	47.8%	46.9%	—	—	2.13
Sunderland over 3.5 corners	28.7%	28.4%	—	—	3.52
Sunderland over 4.5 corners	15.6%	18.5%	—	—	5.40
Sunderland over 5.5 corners	7.8%	10.0%	—	—	10.05
Sunderland over 6.5 corners	3.6%	4.4%	—	—	22.79

Away goals O/U 8

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Sunderland under 3.5 goals	99.0%	97.6%	94.5%	1.03×	1.03
Sunderland under 2.5 goals	94.8%	92.3%	85.0%	1.09×	1.08
Sunderland under 1.5 goals	79.7%	76.3%	60.6%	1.26×	1.31
Sunderland over 0.5 goals	56.5%	59.5%	74.9%	0.79×	1.68
Sunderland under 0.5 goals	43.5%	40.5%	25.1%	1.62×	2.47
Sunderland over 1.5 goals	20.3%	23.7%	39.4%	0.60×	4.21
Sunderland over 2.5 goals	5.2%	7.7%	15.0%	0.51×	13.06
Sunderland over 3.5 goals	1.0%	2.4%	5.5%	0.45×	40.83

Away goals O/U 1HT 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Sunderland under 1.5 in 1st half	97.1%	95.8%	89.2%	1.07×	1.04
Sunderland under 0.5 in 1st half	76.9%	75.7%	59.4%	1.28×	1.32
Sunderland over 0.5 in 1st half	23.1%	24.3%	40.6%	0.60×	4.12
Sunderland over 1.5 in 1st half	2.9%	4.2%	10.8%	0.38×	24.02

Away no bet 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Manchester City (away no bet)	80.2%	82.5%	63.5%	1.30×	1.21
Draw (away no bet)	19.8%	17.5%	36.5%	0.48×	5.73

Away Odd/Even 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Sunderland even goals	59.4%	56.9%	53.7%	1.06×	1.76
Sunderland odd goals	40.6%	43.1%	46.3%	0.93×	2.32

Both halves O1.5 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Not both halves over 1.5	78.2%	82.2%	80.1%	1.03×	1.22
Both halves over 1.5 goals	21.8%	17.8%	19.9%	0.89×	5.63

Both halves U1.5 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Not both halves under 1.5	71.8%	67.2%	70.2%	0.96×	1.49
Both halves under 1.5 goals	28.2%	32.8%	29.8%	1.10×	3.05

Consecutive goals 6

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Either team to score 2+ in a row	67.9%	62.2%	61.4%	1.01×	1.61
Manchester City to score 2+ in a row	60.9%	59.8%	39.1%	1.53×	1.67
Either team to score 3+ in a row	34.0%	29.0%	26.2%	1.11×	3.44
Manchester City to score 3+ in a row	32.1%	29.0%	16.5%	1.76×	3.45
Sunderland to score 2+ in a row	12.6%	12.2%	29.9%	0.41×	8.21
Sunderland to score 3+ in a row	2.2%	2.5%	10.2%	0.25×	39.26

Corner handicap 12

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Manchester City corners (+3.5)	98.4%	95.8%	—	—	1.04
Manchester City corners (+2.5)	96.9%	95.8%	—	—	1.04
Manchester City corners (+1.5)	94.1%	89.6%	—	—	1.12
Manchester City corners (-1.5)	74.7%	70.7%	—	—	1.41
Manchester City corners (-2.5)	64.8%	61.9%	—	—	1.62
Manchester City corners (-3.5)	54.1%	52.5%	—	—	1.91
Sunderland corners (+3.5)	45.9%	47.5%	—	—	2.10
Sunderland corners (+2.5)	35.2%	38.1%	—	—	2.63
Sunderland corners (+1.5)	25.3%	29.3%	—	—	3.42
Sunderland corners (-1.5)	5.9%	10.4%	—	—	9.59
Sunderland corners (-2.5)	3.1%	4.2%	—	—	23.57
Sunderland corners (-3.5)	1.6%	4.2%	—	—	23.62

Corner range 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
0-8 corners	43.5%	38.7%	—	—	2.59
9-11 corners	28.5%	31.2%	—	—	3.20
12+ corners	28.0%	31.2%	—	—	3.20

Corners O/U 12

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Under 12.5 corners	79.1%	76.5%	—	—	1.31
Under 11.5 corners	72.0%	72.6%	—	—	1.38
Over 7.5 corners	66.9%	67.7%	—	—	1.48
Under 10.5 corners	63.5%	63.4%	—	—	1.58
Over 8.5 corners	56.5%	57.8%	—	—	1.73
Under 9.5 corners	53.9%	53.3%	—	—	1.88
Over 9.5 corners	46.1%	46.7%	—	—	2.14
Under 8.5 corners	43.5%	42.2%	—	—	2.37
Over 10.5 corners	36.5%	36.6%	—	—	2.73
Under 7.5 corners	33.1%	32.3%	—	—	3.09
Over 11.5 corners	28.0%	27.4%	—	—	3.66
Over 12.5 corners	20.9%	23.5%	—	—	4.26

Corners Odd/Even 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Odd number of corners	50.0%	50.2%	—	—	1.99
Even number of corners	50.0%	49.8%	—	—	2.01

Correct score 26

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
2-0	11.5%	11.5%	6.6%	1.74×	8.73
1-0	9.9%	7.4%	6.5%	1.14×	13.48
2-1	9.6%	7.4%	9.0%	0.83×	13.48
3-0	8.9%	7.4%	5.0%	1.47×	13.48
Any other score	8.8%	7.4%	4.2%	1.77×	13.48
1-1	8.2%	7.4%	11.5%	0.64×	13.48
3-1	7.4%	7.4%	5.5%	1.36×	13.48
4-0	5.2%	7.4%	1.4%	5.43×	13.48
0-0	4.2%	1.7%	4.9%	0.35×	58.47
0-1	3.5%	1.7%	6.9%	0.25×	58.47
0-2	1.5%	1.7%	5.5%	0.31×	58.48
0-3	0.4%	1.7%	2.6%	0.67×	58.49
0-4	0.1%	1.7%	1.1%	1.54×	58.49
1-2	3.4%	1.7%	6.9%	0.25×	58.47
1-3	1.0%	1.7%	3.2%	0.53×	58.48
1-4	0.2%	1.7%	1.5%	1.18×	58.49
2-2	4.0%	1.7%	7.6%	0.23×	58.47
2-3	1.1%	1.7%	2.4%	0.72×	58.48
2-4	0.2%	1.7%	0.7%	2.50×	58.49
3-2	3.1%	1.7%	3.1%	0.56×	58.47
3-3	0.9%	1.7%	0.8%	2.23×	58.48
3-4	0.2%	1.7%	0.5%	3.34×	58.49
4-1	4.3%	1.7%	2.2%	0.77×	58.46
4-2	1.8%	1.7%	1.4%	1.25×	58.48
4-3	0.5%	1.7%	0.9%	1.82×	58.49
4-4	0.1%	1.7%	0.3%	5.01×	58.49

DNB half time 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Manchester City leading at HT (DNB)	88.6%	87.2%	59.6%	1.46×	1.15
Sunderland leading at HT (DNB)	11.4%	12.8%	40.4%	0.32×	7.84

Double chance 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Manchester City or draw (1X)	88.2%	86.7%	67.7%	1.28×	1.15
Manchester City or Sunderland (12)	82.6%	80.7%	75.3%	1.07×	1.24
Sunderland or draw (X2)	29.2%	26.4%	56.9%	0.46×	3.79

Double chance 1HT 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Manchester City or draw at HT	92.1%	90.1%	75.5%	1.19×	1.11
Manchester City or Sunderland at HT	69.4%	66.5%	60.6%	1.10×	1.50
Sunderland or draw at HT	38.5%	30.8%	63.8%	0.48×	3.25

Double chance 1UP 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Manchester City or draw (1UP)	88.2%	91.9%	74.4%	1.23×	1.09
Sunderland or draw (1UP)	29.2%	32.2%	65.2%	0.49×	3.11

Double chance 2HT 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Manchester City or draw in 2nd half	81.1%	80.9%	67.2%	1.20×	1.24
Manchester City or Sunderland in 2nd half	67.5%	65.5%	69.1%	0.95×	1.53
Sunderland or draw in 2nd half	51.4%	54.4%	63.7%	0.85×	1.84

Draw either half 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Neither half drawn	46.8%	50.1%	43.3%	1.16×	2.00
A half drawn	53.2%	49.9%	56.7%	0.88×	2.00

Draw no bet 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Manchester City (DNB)	85.7%	87.1%	57.2%	1.52×	1.15
Sunderland (DNB)	14.3%	12.9%	42.8%	0.30×	7.74

First goal 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Manchester City to score first	70.5%	74.5%	52.0%	1.43×	1.34
Sunderland to score first	25.3%	27.9%	43.3%	0.65×	3.58
No goal scored	4.2%	4.3%	4.9%	0.89×	23.23

GG/NG 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Both teams to score	51.0%	51.4%	58.2%	0.88×	1.95
Not both teams to score	49.0%	48.6%	41.8%	1.16×	2.06

GG/NG & Over/Under 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Both score & over 2.5	42.8%	41.6%	46.8%	0.89×	2.40
Not both score & under 2.5	30.6%	34.3%	30.0%	1.14×	2.92
Not both score & over 2.5	18.4%	21.7%	11.9%	1.83×	4.60
Both score & under 2.5	8.2%	8.4%	11.5%	0.73×	11.95

GG/NG 2+ 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Not both teams to score 2+	86.3%	85.6%	82.2%	1.04×	1.17
Both teams to score 2+	13.7%	14.4%	17.8%	0.81×	6.94

GG/NG 2nd half 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Not both to score in 2nd half	70.9%	74.0%	68.9%	1.07×	1.35
Both teams to score in 2nd half	29.1%	26.0%	31.1%	0.84×	3.85

GG/NG by half 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Neither half both score	59.4%	59.5%	55.9%	1.06×	1.68
Both score 2nd half only	24.4%	20.9%	24.6%	0.85×	4.79
Both score 1st half only	11.5%	10.7%	13.1%	0.82×	9.32
Both score in both halves	4.7%	5.1%	6.7%	0.76×	19.74

GG/NG half time 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Not both to score by HT	83.7%	82.4%	80.4%	1.03×	1.21
Both teams to score by HT	16.3%	17.6%	19.6%	0.90×	5.69

Goal in both halves 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
A goal in each half	62.8%	58.9%	61.9%	0.95×	1.70
A half without a goal	37.2%	41.1%	38.1%	1.08×	2.43

Goal range 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
2-3 goals	43.5%	42.1%	46.6%	0.90×	2.38
4-6 goals	34.6%	30.8%	32.7%	0.94×	3.25
0-1 goals	17.7%	20.2%	18.1%	1.12×	4.96
7+ goals	4.2%	1.8%	2.8%	0.65×	54.37

Goals away 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Sunderland to score exactly 0	43.5%	37.1%	25.1%	1.48×	2.70
Sunderland to score exactly 1	36.2%	36.0%	35.6%	1.01×	2.78
Sunderland to score exactly 2	15.1%	19.6%	24.5%	0.80×	5.12
Sunderland to score 3+	5.2%	8.4%	15.0%	0.56×	11.85

Goals home 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Manchester City to score 3+	41.1%	34.9%	22.9%	1.52×	2.87
Manchester City to score exactly 2	26.4%	26.5%	26.1%	1.02×	3.77
Manchester City to score exactly 1	22.7%	23.2%	29.6%	0.79×	4.30
Manchester City to score exactly 0	9.8%	10.3%	21.6%	0.48×	9.69

Half time 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Manchester City leading at HT	61.5%	69.2%	36.2%	1.91×	1.45
Draw at HT	30.6%	33.5%	39.4%	0.85×	2.98
Sunderland leading at HT	7.9%	9.9%	24.5%	0.40×	10.13

Handicap 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Manchester City -1: 1	47.7%	46.9%	—	—	2.13
Manchester City -1: 2	29.2%	26.5%	—	—	3.77
Manchester City -1: X	23.1%	23.6%	—	—	4.24

Handicap 0:1 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Manchester City (0:1)	47.7%	46.0%	24.0%	1.92×	2.18
Sunderland (0:1)	29.2%	27.0%	56.9%	0.47×	3.70
Draw (0:1)	23.1%	24.3%	19.2%	1.26×	4.12

Handicap 0:2 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Sunderland (0:2)	52.3%	58.4%	76.0%	0.77×	1.71
Manchester City (0:2)	26.7%	23.7%	10.8%	2.21×	4.22
Draw (0:2)	21.0%	20.3%	13.3%	1.53×	4.93

Handicap 0:3 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Sunderland (0:3)	73.3%	78.0%	89.2%	0.87×	1.28
Draw (0:3)	14.2%	10.0%	7.5%	1.34×	9.97
Manchester City (0:3)	12.6%	10.0%	3.3%	3.01×	9.99

Handicap 0:4 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Sunderland (0:4)	87.4%	92.0%	96.7%	0.95×	1.09
Draw (0:4)	7.5%	4.7%	2.0%	2.28×	21.46
Manchester City (0:4)	5.0%	4.6%	1.4%	3.38×	21.69

Handicap 1:0 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Manchester City (1:0)	88.2%	86.4%	67.7%	1.28×	1.16
Draw (1:0)	8.3%	6.9%	16.6%	0.42×	14.43
Sunderland (1:0)	3.5%	3.2%	15.8%	0.20×	31.54

Handicap 2:0 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Manchester City (2:0)	96.5%	96.9%	84.2%	1.15×	1.03
Draw (2:0)	2.7%	2.3%	9.3%	0.24×	44.20
Sunderland (2:0)	0.8%	2.3%	6.6%	0.34×	44.32

Highest scoring half 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
2nd half highest scoring	42.5%	49.3%	49.7%	0.99×	2.03
1st half highest scoring	34.0%	29.7%	25.8%	1.15×	3.37
Halves equal	23.5%	24.1%	24.7%	0.98×	4.15

Home clean sheet 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Manchester City to concede	56.5%	60.9%	74.9%	0.81×	1.64
Manchester City clean sheet	43.5%	39.1%	25.1%	1.56×	2.56

Home clean sheet 1HT 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Manchester City clean sheet in 1st half	76.9%	77.8%	59.4%	1.31×	1.29
Manchester City to concede in 1st half	23.1%	22.2%	40.6%	0.55×	4.50

Home corners O/U 10

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Manchester City over 2.5 corners	91.8%	89.3%	—	—	1.12
Manchester City over 3.5 corners	83.6%	81.0%	—	—	1.24
Manchester City over 4.5 corners	73.0%	71.9%	—	—	1.39
Manchester City over 5.5 corners	61.0%	62.3%	—	—	1.61
Manchester City under 6.5 corners	51.0%	52.8%	—	—	1.90
Manchester City over 6.5 corners	49.0%	47.2%	—	—	2.12
Manchester City under 5.5 corners	39.0%	37.7%	—	—	2.65
Manchester City under 4.5 corners	27.0%	28.1%	—	—	3.56
Manchester City under 3.5 corners	16.4%	19.0%	—	—	5.25
Manchester City under 2.5 corners	8.2%	10.7%	—	—	9.37

Home goals O/U 8

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Manchester City over 0.5 goals	90.2%	92.2%	78.4%	1.18×	1.08
Manchester City under 3.5 goals	79.4%	77.8%	91.6%	0.85×	1.29
Manchester City over 1.5 goals	67.5%	67.9%	48.9%	1.39×	1.47
Manchester City under 2.5 goals	58.9%	58.8%	77.1%	0.76×	1.70
Manchester City over 2.5 goals	41.1%	41.2%	22.9%	1.80×	2.43
Manchester City under 1.5 goals	32.5%	32.1%	51.1%	0.63×	3.11
Manchester City over 3.5 goals	20.6%	22.2%	8.4%	2.66×	4.50
Manchester City under 0.5 goals	9.8%	7.8%	21.6%	0.36×	12.89

Home goals O/U 1HT 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Manchester City over 0.5 in 1st half	70.4%	79.6%	51.4%	1.55×	1.26
Manchester City under 1.5 in 1st half	65.6%	67.8%	84.5%	0.80×	1.47
Manchester City over 1.5 in 1st half	34.4%	32.2%	15.5%	2.07×	3.11
Manchester City under 0.5 in 1st half	29.6%	20.4%	48.6%	0.42×	4.90

Home no bet 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Draw (home no bet)	59.7%	56.7%	43.4%	1.31×	1.76
Sunderland (home no bet)	40.3%	43.3%	56.6%	0.76×	2.31

Home Odd/Even 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Manchester City even goals	50.5%	50.6%	53.8%	0.94×	1.98
Manchester City odd goals	49.5%	49.4%	46.2%	1.07×	2.03

HT correct score 10

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
HT 1-0	27.7%	28.9%	21.8%	1.33×	3.47
HT 0-0	22.7%	24.1%	27.6%	0.87×	4.15
HT 2-0	16.9%	18.7%	8.1%	2.31×	5.34
Any other HT score	12.7%	10.9%	5.3%	2.07×	9.15
HT 1-1	7.3%	7.1%	10.9%	0.65×	14.05
HT 0-1	6.0%	7.1%	14.8%	0.48×	14.07
HT 2-1	4.4%	2.3%	3.8%	0.62×	43.28
HT 1-2	1.0%	2.3%	2.8%	0.82×	43.54
HT 0-2	0.8%	2.3%	4.5%	0.51×	43.55
HT 2-2	0.6%	2.3%	1.0%	2.24×	43.57

HT/FT 9

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Manchester City at HT / Manchester City at FT	54.4%	56.2%	26.3%	2.14×	1.78
Draw at HT / Manchester City at FT	14.9%	12.7%	14.0%	0.91×	7.88
Draw at HT / Draw at FT	9.9%	6.0%	13.6%	0.44×	16.59
Draw at HT / Sunderland at FT	5.8%	6.0%	12.0%	0.50×	16.71
Manchester City at HT / Draw at FT	5.4%	6.0%	6.6%	0.91×	16.73
Sunderland at HT / Sunderland at FT	4.4%	3.5%	16.9%	0.21×	28.79
Sunderland at HT / Draw at FT	2.1%	3.5%	4.8%	0.72×	28.88
Manchester City at HT / Sunderland at FT	1.6%	3.5%	3.5%	0.99×	28.90
Sunderland at HT / Manchester City at FT	1.5%	3.5%	3.0%	1.16×	28.90

Last goal 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Manchester City to score last	70.5%	72.0%	50.3%	1.43×	1.39
Sunderland to score last	25.3%	26.7%	44.9%	0.60×	3.74
No goal scored	4.2%	4.3%	4.9%	0.89×	23.23

Lead at any time 9

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Either team to lead by 1 at any time	95.8%	95.6%	95.1%	1.01×	1.05
Manchester City to lead by 1 at any time	80.5%	86.9%	62.1%	1.40×	1.15
Either team to lead by 2 at any time	60.6%	61.2%	50.8%	1.21×	1.63
Manchester City to lead by 2 at any time	53.9%	50.7%	29.9%	1.70×	1.97
Either team to lead by 3 at any time	31.3%	29.4%	21.2%	1.39×	3.41
Manchester City to lead by 3 at any time	29.9%	25.5%	13.1%	1.94×	3.92
Sunderland to lead by 1 at any time	28.9%	25.5%	51.4%	0.50×	3.92
Sunderland to lead by 2 at any time	6.9%	6.6%	21.2%	0.31×	15.08
Sunderland to lead by 3 at any time	1.4%	1.6%	8.1%	0.20×	62.96

Most corners 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Manchester City most corners	83.1%	81.7%	—	—	1.22
Sunderland most corners	10.4%	10.4%	—	—	9.61
Corners level	6.5%	8.5%	—	—	11.82

Multi goal 15

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
1-5 goals	85.7%	87.4%	88.5%	0.99×	1.14
2-6 goals	78.2%	78.6%	79.2%	0.99×	1.27
1-4 goals	74.6%	72.4%	78.2%	0.93×	1.38
2-5 goals	72.3%	72.4%	75.3%	0.96×	1.38
2-4 goals	61.1%	63.4%	64.9%	0.98×	1.58
1-3 goals	56.9%	59.2%	59.8%	0.99×	1.69
3-6 goals	57.0%	59.2%	55.8%	1.06×	1.69
3-5 goals	51.1%	53.2%	51.9%	1.03×	1.88
2-3 goals	43.5%	43.6%	46.6%	0.94×	2.30
3-4 goals	40.0%	39.2%	41.6%	0.94×	2.55
1-2 goals	34.6%	35.4%	36.7%	0.96×	2.83
4-6 goals	34.6%	35.4%	32.7%	1.08×	2.83
4-5 goals	28.8%	30.3%	28.8%	1.05×	3.31
5-6 goals	17.0%	18.6%	14.3%	1.30×	5.37
7+ goals	4.2%	2.6%	2.8%	0.91×	39.14

Never down 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Manchester City never behind	66.9%	70.2%	48.6%	1.44×	1.42
Sunderland never behind	15.2%	18.4%	37.9%	0.48×	5.45

Odd/Even 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Odd number of goals	49.9%	50.8%	49.0%	1.04×	1.97
Even number of goals	50.1%	49.2%	51.0%	0.96×	2.03

Odd/Even 1HT 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Even goals in 1st half	52.6%	51.7%	53.4%	0.97×	1.94
Odd goals in 1st half	47.4%	48.3%	46.6%	1.04×	2.07

Odd/Even 2HT 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Even goals in 2nd half	51.7%	52.1%	51.8%	1.01×	1.92
Odd goals in 2nd half	48.3%	47.9%	48.2%	0.99×	2.09

Over/Under 12

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Over 0.5 goals	95.8%	95.5%	95.1%	1.00×	1.05
Under 5.5 goals	90.0%	87.7%	93.3%	0.94×	1.14
Over 1.5 goals	82.3%	82.4%	81.9%	1.01×	1.21
Under 4.5 goals	78.8%	77.4%	82.9%	0.93×	1.29
Over 2.5 goals	61.1%	61.7%	58.5%	1.05×	1.62
Under 3.5 goals	61.2%	61.7%	64.6%	0.96×	1.62
Under 2.5 goals	38.9%	38.3%	41.5%	0.92×	2.61
Over 3.5 goals	38.8%	38.3%	35.4%	1.08×	2.61
Over 4.5 goals	21.2%	22.6%	17.1%	1.33×	4.42
Under 1.5 goals	17.7%	17.6%	18.1%	0.97×	5.68
Over 5.5 goals	10.0%	12.3%	6.7%	1.83×	8.10
Under 0.5 goals	4.2%	4.5%	4.9%	0.93×	22.19

Over/Under (whole line) 10

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Under 6 (void on exactly 6)	95.6%	97.2%	97.1%	1.00×	1.03
Under 5 (void on exactly 5)	88.7%	86.8%	92.5%	0.94×	1.15
Over 2 (void on exactly 2)	77.6%	75.9%	76.4%	0.99×	1.32
Under 4 (void on exactly 4)	74.3%	72.6%	79.1%	0.92×	1.38
Under 3 (void on exactly 3)	50.0%	51.8%	53.9%	0.96×	1.93
Over 3 (void on exactly 3)	50.0%	48.2%	46.1%	1.05×	2.07
Over 4 (void on exactly 4)	25.7%	27.4%	20.9%	1.31×	3.65
Under 2 (void on exactly 2)	22.4%	24.1%	23.6%	1.02×	4.15
Over 5 (void on exactly 5)	11.3%	13.2%	7.5%	1.76×	7.55
Over 6 (void on exactly 6)	4.4%	2.8%	2.9%	0.95×	36.09

Over/Under 1HT 6

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Under 2.5 in 1st half	81.4%	86.2%	87.4%	0.99×	1.16
Over 0.5 in 1st half	77.3%	78.8%	72.4%	1.09×	1.27
Under 1.5 in 1st half	56.4%	62.6%	64.1%	0.98×	1.60
Over 1.5 in 1st half	43.6%	37.4%	35.9%	1.04×	2.68
Under 0.5 in 1st half	22.7%	21.2%	27.6%	0.77×	4.71
Over 2.5 in 1st half	18.6%	13.8%	12.6%	1.09×	7.23

Over/Under 2HT 6

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Over 0.5 in 2nd half	81.3%	82.8%	84.7%	0.98×	1.21
Under 2.5 in 2nd half	76.3%	79.7%	75.9%	1.05×	1.26
Under 1.5 in 2nd half	50.0%	53.1%	45.8%	1.16×	1.88
Over 1.5 in 2nd half	50.0%	46.9%	54.2%	0.87×	2.13
Over 2.5 in 2nd half	23.7%	20.3%	24.1%	0.84×	4.93
Under 0.5 in 2nd half	18.7%	17.2%	15.3%	1.13×	5.81

Score both halves 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Sunderland not to score in both halves	90.0%	86.0%	76.8%	1.12×	1.16
Manchester City not to score in both halves	52.8%	55.7%	68.7%	0.81×	1.79
Manchester City to score in both halves	47.2%	44.3%	31.3%	1.41×	2.26
Sunderland to score in both halves	10.0%	14.0%	23.2%	0.60×	7.13

Teams to score 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Both teams score	51.0%	53.9%	58.2%	0.93×	1.86
Only Manchester City scores	39.2%	39.9%	20.3%	1.96×	2.51
Only Sunderland scores	5.5%	7.2%	16.8%	0.43×	13.93
Neither team scores	4.2%	4.6%	4.9%	0.94×	21.81

Total goals 7

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Exactly 3 goals	22.3%	22.6%	23.2%	0.97×	4.42
Exactly 2 goals	21.2%	22.6%	23.5%	0.96×	4.42
Exactly 4 goals	17.6%	17.4%	18.4%	0.95×	5.74
Exactly 1 goals	13.4%	12.1%	13.3%	0.91×	8.27
Exactly 5 goals	11.1%	12.1%	10.4%	1.16×	8.28
6 or more goals	10.0%	12.1%	6.7%	1.79×	8.28
Exactly 0 goals	4.2%	4.4%	4.9%	0.91×	22.65

Total goals 2nd half 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
2+ goals in 2nd half	50.0%	45.2%	54.2%	0.83×	2.21
1 goal in 2nd half	31.3%	33.4%	30.6%	1.09×	2.99
No goals in 2nd half	18.7%	17.2%	15.3%	1.13×	5.82

Win both halves 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Sunderland not to win both halves	98.5%	97.3%	91.2%	1.07×	1.03
Manchester City not to win both halves	70.1%	72.2%	86.5%	0.84×	1.38
Manchester City to win both halves	29.9%	27.8%	13.5%	2.06×	3.60
Sunderland to win both halves	1.5%	2.7%	8.8%	0.31×	36.65

Win either half 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Manchester City to win either half	80.2%	82.6%	59.0%	1.40×	1.21
Sunderland to win neither half	74.6%	73.1%	51.5%	1.42×	1.37
Sunderland to win either half	25.4%	26.9%	48.5%	0.55×	3.72
Manchester City to win neither half	19.8%	17.4%	41.0%	0.42×	5.75

Win to nil 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Sunderland not to win to nil	94.5%	92.1%	83.2%	1.11×	1.09
Manchester City not to win to nil	60.8%	66.7%	79.7%	0.84×	1.50
Manchester City to win to nil	39.2%	33.3%	20.3%	1.64×	3.00
Sunderland to win to nil	5.5%	7.9%	16.8%	0.47×	12.61

Winning margin 7

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Manchester City by 3+	26.7%	27.8%	10.8%	2.59×	3.59
Manchester City by 1	23.1%	24.1%	19.2%	1.26×	4.14
Manchester City by 2	21.0%	24.1%	13.3%	1.81×	4.14
Draw	17.4%	16.9%	24.7%	0.68×	5.91
Sunderland by 1	8.3%	7.3%	16.6%	0.44×	13.78
Sunderland by 2	2.7%	2.7%	9.3%	0.29×	37.00
Sunderland by 3+	0.8%	2.7%	6.6%	0.41×	37.06