Manchester City v Wolverhampton Wanderers — Prediction, Odds & Stats
Saturday 24 January 2026 · ENG-Premier League · 2526
Premier League
xG Prediction generated
Shots
11 – 11
On target
4 – 1
Shots in box
8 – 5
xG per shot
0.10 – 0.05
Set-piece xG
0.04 – 0.30
Goals − xG
+0.93 – -0.54
AI prediction
ai-blend-oos No snapshot has been taken for this fixture yet; this is the stored price.Manchester City win
72.7%
Draw
18.9%
Wolverhampton Wanderers win
8.4%
Probabilities, not certainties. How they are made: the methodology.
Was this pick made in advance?
A model whose name ends
-oos is out of sample: it was fitted only on matches
played before this one, so its pick is a genuine forecast rather than hindsight.
Anything without that suffix was fitted on all available data.What the chances say
Manchester City are finishing below their chances — 2.7 goals fewer than expected across 10 matches, despite creating the openings. They are also conceding sharply fewer than expected — 4.3 goals saved beyond what the chances suggest.
WWDWWDLWWW last 10
scored 21
from 23.7 xG
conceded 9
from 13.3 xG
Wolverhampton Wanderers are finishing below their chances — 3.7 goals fewer than expected across 10 matches, despite creating the openings. They are also conceding fewer than expected — 2.3 goals saved beyond what the chances suggest.
WWDLLLDLDD last 10
scored 9
from 12.7 xG
conceded 17
from 19.3 xG
Finishing swings far more than chance creation, so a gap this size usually narrows. Over ten matches it is suggestive, not settled — a genuinely elite finisher beats expected goals for years.
What the model said
| Model | Home / Draw / Away | Expected goals | Likeliest score | O2.5 | BTTS | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ai-blend-oos | 2.32–0.70 | 0% | 0% | 0% | Home ✓ | |
| dc-xg-oos | 2.14–0.80 | 2-0 12% | 56% | 49% | Home ✓ |
A model whose name ends -oos was produced by the walk-forward backtest:
it was fitted only on matches played before this one, so the pick is genuinely out of sample.
Reading the xG timeline
Each step up is a shot; the height of the step is how good the chance was. Dots mark goals.
A side whose line climbs steadily created chances all match. A side that scored while its
line stayed flat took a rare chance — that is finishing luck, and it rarely repeats.
Expected goals by minute
Manchester City 1.07 xGWolverhampton Wanderers 0.54 xG
Reading the shot map
Each circle is a shot, placed where it was taken. Bigger means a better chance;
filled circles are goals. Clusters near the goal mean a side worked good openings;
lots of small circles far out means shooting from poor positions and hoping.
Hover any circle for the player, minute and chance quality.
Shot map
Manchester City attacking right
Wolverhampton Wanderers attacking left
Marker size is xG; filled markers are goals.
Every shot
| Min | Team | Player | xG | Situation | Body part | Result | Assisted by |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3' |
 Manchester City |
Marc Guehi | 0.01 | From Corner | — | Saved Shot | Bernardo Silva |
| 5' |
Manchester City |
Omar Marmoush | 0.39 | Open Play | Right Foot | Goal | Matheus Nunes |
| 9' |
Manchester City |
Antoine Semenyo | 0.13 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | Marc Guehi |
| 16' |
Manchester City |
Mathis Cherki | 0.11 | Open Play | Left Foot | Missed Shot | Omar Marmoush |
| 20' |
 Wolverhampton Wanderers |
Mateus Mané | 0.03 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | João Gomes |
| 31' |
Wolverhampton Wanderers |
Yerson Mosquera | 0.02 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Jackson Tchatchoua |
| 34' |
Manchester City |
Omar Marmoush | 0.12 | Open Play | Right Foot | Shot On Post | Abduqodir Khusanov |
| 40' |
Manchester City |
Nico O'Reilly | 0.03 | Open Play | Left Foot | Missed Shot | Mathis Cherki |
| 46' |
Manchester City |
Antoine Semenyo | 0.11 | Open Play | Left Foot | Goal | Bernardo Silva |
| 54' |
Wolverhampton Wanderers |
João Gomes | 0.07 | Direct Freekick | Right Foot | Missed Shot | — |
| 59' |
Manchester City |
Tijjani Reijnders | 0.02 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Rodri |
| 60' |
Manchester City |
Mathis Cherki | 0.04 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Nico O'Reilly |
| 65' |
Wolverhampton Wanderers |
Yerson Mosquera | 0.12 | Set Piece | — | Saved Shot | Mateus Mané |
| 77' |
Manchester City |
Antoine Semenyo | 0.08 | Open Play | Left Foot | Shot On Post | Phil Foden |
| 86' |
Wolverhampton Wanderers |
Yerson Mosquera | 0.08 | From Corner | — | Shot On Post | Mateus Mané |
| 91' |
Wolverhampton Wanderers |
Mateus Mané | 0.01 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Jørgen Strand Larsen |
| 92' |
Wolverhampton Wanderers |
Mateus Mané | 0.04 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | João Gomes |
| 92' |
Wolverhampton Wanderers |
Tolu Arokodare | 0.06 | Open Play | — | Missed Shot | Hugo Bueno |
| 93' |
Manchester City |
Marc Guehi | 0.03 | From Corner | — | Missed Shot | Phil Foden |
| 94' |
Wolverhampton Wanderers |
Yerson Mosquera | 0.04 | Open Play | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | — |
| 94' |
Wolverhampton Wanderers |
Yerson Mosquera | 0.05 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | — |
| 95' |
Wolverhampton Wanderers |
Mateus Mané | 0.02 | From Corner | Right Foot | Missed Shot | — |
Players
Manchester City
| Player | Min | G | A | Sh | KP | xG | xA | xGChain |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Antoine Semenyo MR | 90 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0.32 | 0.00 | 0.43 |
| Marc Guehi DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0.04 | 0.13 | 0.74 |
| Nico O'Reilly DL | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.03 | 0.04 | 0.44 |
| Abduqodir Khusanov DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.12 | 0.66 |
| Rodri DMC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.02 | 0.28 |
| Matheus Nunes DR | 90 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.39 | 0.39 |
| Gianluigi Donnarumma GK | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.21 |
| Bernardo Silva MC | 90 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 0.00 | 0.13 | 0.62 |
| Omar Marmoush FW | 78 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0.51 | 0.11 | 0.61 |
| Mathis Cherki ML | 77 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0.15 | 0.03 | 0.29 |
| Tijjani Reijnders MC | 65 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.02 | 0.00 | 0.02 |
| Phil Foden Sub | 25 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0.00 | 0.10 | 0.08 |
| Erling Haaland Sub | 13 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Jéremy Doku Sub | 12 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.08 |
Wolverhampton Wanderers
| Player | Min | G | A | Sh | KP | xG | xA | xGChain |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yerson Mosquera DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 0 | 0.31 | 0.00 | 0.14 |
| Mateus Mané MC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 2 | 0.10 | 0.20 | 0.08 |
| João Gomes MC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0.07 | 0.06 | 0.09 |
| André MC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.04 |
| Hugo Bueno DML | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.06 | 0.15 |
| Santiago Bueno DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.03 |
| José Sá GK | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Ladislav Krejcí DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.03 |
| Hee-Chan Hwang FW | 75 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.03 |
| Jhon Arias FW | 50 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.02 |
| Jackson Tchatchoua DMR | 50 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.02 | 0.04 |
| Rodrigo Gomes Sub | 40 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Jørgen Strand Larsen Sub | 40 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.01 | 0.05 |
| Tolu Arokodare Sub | 15 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.06 | 0.00 | 0.10 |