Manchester City v Wolverhampton Wanderers — Prediction, Odds & Stats
Friday 2 May 2025 · ENG-Premier League · 2425
Premier League
xG Prediction generated
Shots
9 – 6
On target
2 – 0
Shots in box
5 – 4
xG per shot
0.10 – 0.11
Set-piece xG
0.08 – 0.00
Goals − xG
+0.14 – -0.67
AI prediction
ai-blend-oos No snapshot has been taken for this fixture yet; this is the stored price.Manchester City win
55.2%
Draw
23.1%
Wolverhampton Wanderers win
21.6%
Probabilities, not certainties. How they are made: the methodology.
Was this pick made in advance?
A model whose name ends
-oos is out of sample: it was fitted only on matches
played before this one, so its pick is a genuine forecast rather than hindsight.
Anything without that suffix was fitted on all available data.What the chances say
Manchester City are finishing below their chances — 2.7 goals fewer than expected across 10 matches, despite creating the openings. They are also conceding sharply fewer than expected — 4.3 goals saved beyond what the chances suggest.
WWDWWDLWWW last 10
scored 21
from 23.7 xG
conceded 9
from 13.3 xG
Wolverhampton Wanderers are finishing below their chances — 3.7 goals fewer than expected across 10 matches, despite creating the openings. They are also conceding fewer than expected — 2.3 goals saved beyond what the chances suggest.
WWDLLLDLDD last 10
scored 9
from 12.7 xG
conceded 17
from 19.3 xG
Finishing swings far more than chance creation, so a gap this size usually narrows. Over ten matches it is suggestive, not settled — a genuinely elite finisher beats expected goals for years.
What the model said
| Model | Home / Draw / Away | Expected goals | Likeliest score | O2.5 | BTTS | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ai-blend-oos | 1.85–1.07 | 0% | 0% | 0% | Home ✓ | |
| dc-xg-oos | 2.24–0.97 | 2-0 10% | 62% | 55% | Home ✓ |
A model whose name ends -oos was produced by the walk-forward backtest:
it was fitted only on matches played before this one, so the pick is genuinely out of sample.
Reading the xG timeline
Each step up is a shot; the height of the step is how good the chance was. Dots mark goals.
A side whose line climbs steadily created chances all match. A side that scored while its
line stayed flat took a rare chance — that is finishing luck, and it rarely repeats.
Expected goals by minute
Manchester City 0.86 xGWolverhampton Wanderers 0.67 xG
Reading the shot map
Each circle is a shot, placed where it was taken. Bigger means a better chance;
filled circles are goals. Clusters near the goal mean a side worked good openings;
lots of small circles far out means shooting from poor positions and hoping.
Hover any circle for the player, minute and chance quality.
Shot map
Manchester City attacking right
Wolverhampton Wanderers attacking left
Marker size is xG; filled markers are goals.
Every shot
| Min | Team | Player | xG | Situation | Body part | Result | Assisted by |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1' |
 Manchester City |
Rúben Dias | 0.01 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Mateo Kovacic |
| 2' |
 Wolverhampton Wanderers |
Matheus Cunha | 0.04 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | André |
| 10' |
Manchester City |
Nico O'Reilly | 0.02 | Set Piece | — | Missed Shot | Ilkay Gündogan |
| 18' |
Wolverhampton Wanderers |
André | 0.05 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | — |
| 21' |
Manchester City |
Omar Marmoush | 0.04 | From Corner | Right Foot | Missed Shot | — |
| 26' |
Wolverhampton Wanderers |
Nélson Semedo | 0.06 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | — |
| 26' |
Wolverhampton Wanderers |
Rayan Ait Nouri | 0.07 | Open Play | Left Foot | Shot On Post | — |
| 26' |
Wolverhampton Wanderers |
Rayan Ait Nouri | 0.37 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | — |
| 32' |
Manchester City |
Mateo Kovacic | 0.03 | From Corner | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Bernardo Silva |
| 32' |
Manchester City |
Nico O'Reilly | 0.08 | Open Play | Left Foot | Saved Shot | Jéremy Doku |
| 34' |
Manchester City |
Kevin De Bruyne | 0.53 | Open Play | Right Foot | Goal | Jéremy Doku |
| 44' |
Manchester City |
Mateo Kovacic | 0.02 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Jéremy Doku |
| 55' |
Wolverhampton Wanderers |
Matheus Cunha | 0.08 | Open Play | Right Foot | Shot On Post | João Gomes |
| 67' |
Manchester City |
Omar Marmoush | 0.10 | Open Play | Left Foot | Missed Shot | Bernardo Silva |
| 69' |
Manchester City |
Mateo Kovacic | 0.03 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Bernardo Silva |
Players
Manchester City
| Player | Min | G | A | Sh | KP | xG | xA | xGChain |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mateo Kovacic DMC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 0.08 | 0.01 | 0.24 |
| Rúben Dias DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.01 | 0.00 | 0.24 |
| Matheus Nunes DR | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.24 |
| Jéremy Doku AML | 90 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 0.00 | 0.63 | 0.24 |
| Josko Gvardiol DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.17 |
| Ederson GK | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.15 |
| Bernardo Silva DMC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0.00 | 0.16 | 0.23 |
| Kevin De Bruyne FW | 85 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.53 | 0.00 | 0.74 |
| Ilkay Gündogan AMC | 85 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.02 | 0.15 |
| Omar Marmoush AMR | 84 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0.14 | 0.00 | 0.13 |
| Nico O'Reilly DL | 59 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0.10 | 0.00 | 0.11 |
| Manuel Akanji Sub | 31 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.13 |
| Rico Lewis Sub | 6 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| James McAtee Sub | 5 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Phil Foden Sub | 5 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Nico González Sub | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
Wolverhampton Wanderers
| Player | Min | G | A | Sh | KP | xG | xA | xGChain |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rayan Ait Nouri DML | 90 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0.44 | 0.00 | 0.44 |
| Marshall Munetsi AMC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| João Gomes MC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.08 | 0.08 |
| José Sá GK | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.07 |
| Toti DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.07 |
| Emmanuel Agbadou DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.07 |
| Nélson Semedo DMR | 87 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.06 | 0.00 | 0.14 |
| Matheus Cunha FW | 86 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0.12 | 0.00 | 0.19 |
| André MC | 81 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.05 | 0.04 | 0.16 |
| Jean-Ricner Bellegarde AMC | 67 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.07 |
| Matt Doherty DC | 66 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.07 |
| Pablo Sarabia Sub | 24 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Rodrigo Gomes Sub | 23 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Gonçalo Guedes Sub | 9 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Hee-Chan Hwang Sub | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Santiago Bueno Sub | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |