Manchester United v Burnley — Prediction, Odds & Stats

Saturday 30 August 2025 · ENG-Premier League · 2526

Premier League xG Prediction generated 7 Sep 2026, 02:04

Manchester United

3–2

4.02 – 1.33 xG

Burnley

Shots

26 – 7

On target

6 – 3

Shots in box

19 – 5

xG per shot

0.15 – 0.20

Set-piece xG

1.13 – 0.04

Goals − xG

-1.02 – +0.62

AI prediction

ai-blend-oos No snapshot has been taken for this fixture yet; this is the stored price.

Manchester United win

46.7%

Draw

25.7%

Burnley win

27.6%

472628

Probabilities, not certainties. How they are made: the methodology.

Was this pick made in advance?

A model whose name ends -oos is out of sample: it was fitted only on matches played before this one, so its pick is a genuine forecast rather than hindsight. Anything without that suffix was fitted on all available data.

What the chances say

Manchester United have scored 20 from 20.9 expected and conceded 13 from 14.7 — both ends in line with the chances, so the recent record is a fair reflection.

LWWWDWWLWD last 10 scored 20 from 20.9 xG conceded 13 from 14.7 xG

Burnley are finishing sharply below their chances — 4.4 goals fewer than expected across 10 matches, despite creating the openings.

LDLLLLLDLD last 10 scored 6 from 10.4 xG conceded 19 from 20.9 xG

Finishing swings far more than chance creation, so a gap this size usually narrows. Over ten matches it is suggestive, not settled — a genuinely elite finisher beats expected goals for years.

What the model said

Model	Home / Draw / Away	Expected goals	Likeliest score	O2.5	BTTS	Outcome
ai-blend-oos	472628	1.52–1.10	0%	0%	0%	Home ✓
dc-xg-oos	562321	1.82–1.03	1-1 11%	54%	54%	Home ✓

A model whose name ends -oos was produced by the walk-forward backtest: it was fitted only on matches played before this one, so the pick is genuinely out of sample.

Reading the xG timeline

Each step up is a shot; the height of the step is how good the chance was. Dots mark goals. A side whose line climbs steadily created chances all match. A side that scored while its line stayed flat took a rare chance — that is finishing luck, and it rarely repeats.

Expected goals by minute

Manchester United 4.02 xGBurnley 1.38 xG

Reading the shot map

Each circle is a shot, placed where it was taken. Bigger means a better chance; filled circles are goals. Clusters near the goal mean a side worked good openings; lots of small circles far out means shooting from poor positions and hoping. Hover any circle for the player, minute and chance quality.

Shot map

Manchester United attacking right Burnley attacking left Marker size is xG; filled markers are goals.

Every shot

Min	Team	Player	xG	Situation	Body part	Result	Assisted by
4'	Manchester United	Matheus Cunha	0.02	Open Play	Left Foot	Saved Shot	—
13'	Manchester United	Bryan Mbeumo	0.04	Open Play	Left Foot	Saved Shot	Bruno Fernandes
14'	Manchester United	Bryan Mbeumo	0.11	Open Play	Right Foot	Missed Shot	Mason Mount
21'	Manchester United	Leny Yoro	0.06	Open Play	—	Missed Shot	Matheus Cunha
26'	Burnley	Josh Cullen	0.00	Set Piece	—	Own Goal	—
26'	Manchester United	Casemiro	0.13	Set Piece	—	Shot On Post	Bruno Fernandes
36'	Burnley	Hannibal Mejbri	0.11	Open Play	Right Foot	Missed Shot	Jacob Bruun Larsen
38'	Manchester United	Amad Diallo Traore	0.06	Open Play	Left Foot	Blocked Shot	—
39'	Manchester United	Mason Mount	0.04	From Corner	—	Shot On Post	Bryan Mbeumo
44'	Manchester United	Amad Diallo Traore	0.05	From Corner	Left Foot	Saved Shot	Bruno Fernandes
44'	Manchester United	Matthijs de Ligt	0.06	From Corner	—	Blocked Shot	—
47'	Burnley	Jacob Bruun Larsen	0.04	Direct Freekick	Right Foot	Blocked Shot	—
47'	Manchester United	Bruno Fernandes	0.02	Open Play	Right Foot	Blocked Shot	Amad Diallo Traore
47'	Manchester United	Joshua Zirkzee	0.03	Set Piece	Left Foot	Blocked Shot	Bruno Fernandes
47'	Manchester United	Joshua Zirkzee	0.11	Open Play	Right Foot	Blocked Shot	—
47'	Manchester United	Joshua Zirkzee	0.16	Open Play	Right Foot	Missed Shot	Bruno Fernandes
48'	Manchester United	Joshua Zirkzee	0.12	Open Play	Right Foot	Missed Shot	Kobbie Mainoo
49'	Burnley	Quilindschy Hartman	0.03	Open Play	Left Foot	Blocked Shot	—
49'	Manchester United	Amad Diallo Traore	0.58	Open Play	Left Foot	Missed Shot	Bryan Mbeumo
50'	Manchester United	Joshua Zirkzee	0.62	Open Play	Left Foot	Saved Shot	—
54'	Burnley	Lyle Foster	0.47	Open Play	Right Foot	Goal	Jacob Bruun Larsen
56'	Manchester United	Bryan Mbeumo	0.55	Open Play	Left Foot	Goal	Diogo Dalot
62'	Manchester United	Bruno Fernandes	0.06	From Corner	Right Foot	Missed Shot	Bryan Mbeumo
62'	Manchester United	Kobbie Mainoo	0.03	Open Play	Right Foot	Blocked Shot	Bruno Fernandes
65'	Burnley	Jaidon Anthony	0.64	Open Play	Left Foot	Goal	—
65'	Burnley	Loum Tchaouna	0.08	Open Play	Left Foot	Saved Shot	—
68'	Manchester United	Kobbie Mainoo	0.03	Open Play	Right Foot	Missed Shot	Joshua Zirkzee
74'	Manchester United	Joshua Zirkzee	0.04	Open Play	—	Missed Shot	Bryan Mbeumo
79'	Manchester United	Bruno Fernandes	0.05	Open Play	Right Foot	Blocked Shot	—
81'	Manchester United	Joshua Zirkzee	0.07	Open Play	Right Foot	Missed Shot	Amad Diallo Traore
85'	Manchester United	Benjamin Sesko	0.09	Open Play	—	Missed Shot	Bryan Mbeumo
86'	Manchester United	Benjamin Sesko	0.13	Open Play	—	Missed Shot	Diogo Dalot
96'	Manchester United	Bruno Fernandes	0.76		Right Foot	Goal	—

Players

Burnley

Player	Min	G	A	Sh	KP	xG	xA	xGChain
Jaidon Anthony AML	90	1	0	1	0	0.64	0.00	0.75
Lyle Foster FW	90	1	0	1	0	0.47	0.00	0.47
Jacob Bruun Larsen AMR	90	0	1	1	2	0.04	0.58	0.58
Quilindschy Hartman DL	90	0	0	1	0	0.03	0.00	0.03
Kyle Walker DR	90	0	0	0	0	0.00	0.00	0.47
Martin Dubravka GK	90	0	0	0	0	0.00	0.00	0.00
Josh Cullen DMC	90	0	0	0	0	0.00	0.00	0.58
Maxime Estève DC	90	0	0	0	0	0.00	0.00	0.00
Hjalmar Ekdal DC	90	0	0	0	0	0.00	0.00	0.00
Chimuanya Ugochukwu DMC	84	0	0	0	0	0.00	0.00	0.58
Hannibal Mejbri AMC	73	0	0	1	0	0.11	0.00	0.11
Loum Tchaouna Sub	17	0	0	1	0	0.08	0.00	0.08
Josh Laurent Sub	6	0	0	0	0	0.00	0.00	0.00
Joe Worrall Sub	1	0	0	0	0	0.00	0.00	0.00
Oliver Sonne Sub	1	0	0	0	0	0.00	0.00	0.00