Manchester United v Ipswich — Prediction, Odds & Stats
Wednesday 26 February 2025 · ENG-Premier League · 2425
Premier League
xG Prediction generated
Shots
10 – 13
On target
6 – 3
Shots in box
8 – 5
xG per shot
0.16 – 0.08
Set-piece xG
1.38 – 0.08
Goals − xG
+1.41 – +0.95
AI prediction
ai-blend-oos No snapshot has been taken for this fixture yet; this is the stored price.Manchester United win
53.8%
Draw
26.0%
Ipswich win
20.2%
Probabilities, not certainties. How they are made: the methodology.
Was this pick made in advance?
A model whose name ends
-oos is out of sample: it was fitted only on matches
played before this one, so its pick is a genuine forecast rather than hindsight.
Anything without that suffix was fitted on all available data.What the chances say
Manchester United have scored 20 from 20.9 expected and conceded 13 from 14.7 — both ends in line with the chances, so the recent record is a fair reflection.
LWWWDWWLWD last 10
scored 20
from 20.9 xG
conceded 13
from 14.7 xG
Ipswich are conceding sharply more than the chances against them merit — 4.5 goals above expected, which tends to correct.
DLLDLLLWLL last 10
scored 9
from 10.0 xG
conceded 25
from 20.5 xG
Finishing swings far more than chance creation, so a gap this size usually narrows. Over ten matches it is suggestive, not settled — a genuinely elite finisher beats expected goals for years.
What the model said
| Model | Home / Draw / Away | Expected goals | Likeliest score | O2.5 | BTTS | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ai-blend-oos | 1.70–0.96 | 0% | 0% | 0% | Home ✓ | |
| dc-xg-oos | 2.11–1.09 | 2-1 10% | 62% | 58% | Home ✓ |
A model whose name ends -oos was produced by the walk-forward backtest:
it was fitted only on matches played before this one, so the pick is genuinely out of sample.
Reading the xG timeline
Each step up is a shot; the height of the step is how good the chance was. Dots mark goals.
A side whose line climbs steadily created chances all match. A side that scored while its
line stayed flat took a rare chance — that is finishing luck, and it rarely repeats.
Expected goals by minute
Manchester United 1.59 xGIpswich 1.05 xG
Reading the shot map
Each circle is a shot, placed where it was taken. Bigger means a better chance;
filled circles are goals. Clusters near the goal mean a side worked good openings;
lots of small circles far out means shooting from poor positions and hoping.
Hover any circle for the player, minute and chance quality.
Shot map
Manchester United attacking right
Ipswich attacking left
Marker size is xG; filled markers are goals.
Every shot
| Min | Team | Player | xG | Situation | Body part | Result | Assisted by |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0' |
 Ipswich |
Liam Delap | 0.07 | Open Play | Left Foot | Missed Shot | Jack Clarke |
| 3' |
Ipswich |
Jaden Philogene-Bidace | 0.60 | Open Play | Left Foot | Goal | — |
| 9' |
 Manchester United |
Diogo Dalot | 0.05 | From Corner | Right Foot | Missed Shot | — |
| 9' |
Manchester United |
Harry Maguire | 0.02 | From Corner | — | Saved Shot | Bruno Fernandes |
| 19' |
Manchester United |
Joshua Zirkzee | 0.05 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Manuel Ugarte |
| 21' |
Ipswich |
Sam Morsy | 0.00 | Set Piece | — | Own Goal | — |
| 25' |
Manchester United |
Diogo Dalot | 0.14 | From Corner | Right Foot | Saved Shot | — |
| 25' |
Manchester United |
Harry Maguire | 0.10 | From Corner | — | Saved Shot | Bruno Fernandes |
| 25' |
Manchester United |
Matthijs de Ligt | 0.76 | From Corner | Left Foot | Goal | — |
| 35' |
Manchester United |
Patrick Dorgu | 0.07 | Open Play | Left Foot | Saved Shot | Alejandro Garnacho |
| 38' |
Manchester United |
Alejandro Garnacho | 0.07 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Bruno Fernandes |
| 46' |
Ipswich |
Jaden Philogene-Bidace | 0.01 | Open Play | Left Foot | Goal | Axel Tuanzebe |
| 46' |
Manchester United |
Harry Maguire | 0.30 | From Corner | — | Goal | Bruno Fernandes |
| 49' |
Ipswich |
Jaden Philogene-Bidace | 0.04 | Open Play | Left Foot | Missed Shot | — |
| 49' |
Ipswich |
Liam Delap | 0.03 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Jack Clarke |
| 56' |
Ipswich |
Liam Delap | 0.08 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Jaden Philogene-Bidace |
| 57' |
Ipswich |
Jens Cajuste | 0.03 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | — |
| 59' |
Ipswich |
Jens Cajuste | 0.06 | Open Play | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | Leif Davis |
| 72' |
Ipswich |
Jack Taylor | 0.03 | From Corner | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Jaden Philogene-Bidace |
| 77' |
Ipswich |
Axel Tuanzebe | 0.02 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Leif Davis |
| 82' |
Ipswich |
George Hirst | 0.05 | From Corner | — | Missed Shot | — |
| 86' |
Ipswich |
Jaden Philogene-Bidace | 0.03 | Open Play | Left Foot | Saved Shot | Dara O'Shea |
| 97' |
Manchester United |
Casemiro | 0.02 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | — |
Players
Manchester United
| Player | Min | G | A | Sh | KP | xG | xA | xGChain |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Matthijs de Ligt DC | 90 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.76 | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| Harry Maguire DC | 90 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0.42 | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| Diogo Dalot DMR | 90 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0.19 | 0.00 | 0.07 |
| Joshua Zirkzee AMC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.05 | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| Bruno Fernandes MC | 90 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 4 | 0.00 | 0.50 | 0.07 |
| Leny Yoro DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| Manuel Ugarte MC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.05 | 0.05 |
| André Onana GK | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Rasmus Højlund FW | 71 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Noussair Mazraoui Sub | 46 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Alejandro Garnacho AMC | 44 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.07 | 0.07 | 0.14 |
| Patrick Dorgu DML | 42 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.07 | 0.00 | 0.07 |
| Casemiro Sub | 19 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.02 | 0.00 | 0.02 |
| Christian Eriksen Sub | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Victor Lindelöf Sub | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
Ipswich
| Player | Min | G | A | Sh | KP | xG | xA | xGChain |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jaden Philogene-Bidace DMR | 90 | 2 | 0 | 4 | 2 | 0.68 | 0.10 | 0.76 |
| Liam Delap FW | 90 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0.18 | 0.00 | 0.18 |
| Jens Cajuste MC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0.09 | 0.00 | 0.29 |
| Alex Palmer GK | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.16 |
| Jacob Greaves DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.17 |
| Dara O'Shea DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.03 | 0.23 |
| Jack Clarke AMC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0.00 | 0.10 | 0.23 |
| Axel Tuanzebe DC | 85 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0.02 | 0.01 | 0.10 |
| Leif Davis DML | 84 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0.00 | 0.08 | 0.16 |
| Sam Morsy MC | 70 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.15 |
| Omari Hutchinson AMC | 70 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.14 |
| Jack Taylor Sub | 20 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.03 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Nathan Broadhead Sub | 20 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.03 |
| George Hirst Sub | 6 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.05 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Ben Johnson Sub | 5 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.03 |
| Sammie Szmodics Sub | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |