Manchester United v Liverpool — Prediction, Odds & Stats

Sunday 3 May 2026 · ENG-Premier League · 2526

Premier League xG Prediction generated 6 Sep 2026, 02:07

Manchester United

3–2

2.56 – 1.03 xG

Liverpool

Shots

18 – 13

On target

6 – 5

Shots in box

13 – 5

xG per shot

0.14 – 0.08

Set-piece xG

0.53 – 0.08

Goals − xG

+0.44 – +0.97

AI prediction

ai-blend-oos No snapshot has been taken for this fixture yet; this is the stored price.

Manchester United win

41.3%

Draw

27.6%

Liverpool win

31.0%

412831

Probabilities, not certainties. How they are made: the methodology.

Was this pick made in advance?

A model whose name ends -oos is out of sample: it was fitted only on matches played before this one, so its pick is a genuine forecast rather than hindsight. Anything without that suffix was fitted on all available data.

What the chances say

Manchester United are conceding fewer than expected — 2.4 goals saved beyond what the chances suggest.

DLWWWDWWLW last 10 scored 20 from 21.8 xG conceded 13 from 15.4 xG

Liverpool are finishing above their chances — 2.8 goals more than expected across 10 matches, which usually cools off. They are also conceding fewer than expected — 2.3 goals saved beyond what the chances suggest.

WWWLDLDDDW last 10 scored 19 from 16.2 xG conceded 15 from 17.3 xG

Finishing swings far more than chance creation, so a gap this size usually narrows. Over ten matches it is suggestive, not settled — a genuinely elite finisher beats expected goals for years.

What the model said

Model	Home / Draw / Away	Expected goals	Likeliest score	O2.5	BTTS	Outcome
ai-blend-oos	412831	1.59–1.36	0%	0%	0%	Home ✓
dc-xg-oos	432334	1.72–1.51	1-1 10%	63%	64%	Home ✓

A model whose name ends -oos was produced by the walk-forward backtest: it was fitted only on matches played before this one, so the pick is genuinely out of sample.

Reading the xG timeline

Each step up is a shot; the height of the step is how good the chance was. Dots mark goals. A side whose line climbs steadily created chances all match. A side that scored while its line stayed flat took a rare chance — that is finishing luck, and it rarely repeats.

Expected goals by minute

Manchester United 2.56 xGLiverpool 1.03 xG

Reading the shot map

Each circle is a shot, placed where it was taken. Bigger means a better chance; filled circles are goals. Clusters near the goal mean a side worked good openings; lots of small circles far out means shooting from poor positions and hoping. Hover any circle for the player, minute and chance quality.

Shot map

Manchester United attacking right Liverpool attacking left Marker size is xG; filled markers are goals.

Every shot

Min	Team	Player	xG	Situation	Body part	Result	Assisted by
5'	Manchester United	Benjamin Sesko	0.11	Open Play	Left Foot	Blocked Shot	Bryan Mbeumo
5'	Manchester United	Matheus Cunha	0.02	From Corner	Right Foot	Blocked Shot	—
5'	Manchester United	Matheus Cunha	0.06	From Corner	Left Foot	Goal	—
13'	Manchester United	Benjamin Sesko	0.61	Open Play	Left Foot	Saved Shot	Bruno Fernandes
13'	Manchester United	Benjamin Sesko	0.70	Open Play	—	Goal	—
23'	Liverpool	Cody Gakpo	0.05	Open Play	Right Foot	Missed Shot	Alexis Mac Allister
26'	Manchester United	Bruno Fernandes	0.12	Open Play	Right Foot	Missed Shot	Bryan Mbeumo
27'	Liverpool	Florian Wirtz	0.07	Open Play	Right Foot	Missed Shot	Cody Gakpo
40'	Liverpool	Ryan Gravenberch	0.02	Open Play	Right Foot	Saved Shot	Florian Wirtz
43'	Manchester United	Matheus Cunha	0.04	Set Piece	Right Foot	Blocked Shot	Bruno Fernandes
44'	Liverpool	Ryan Gravenberch	0.06	Open Play	Left Foot	Blocked Shot	Florian Wirtz
45'	Manchester United	Bryan Mbeumo	0.06	Open Play	Left Foot	Blocked Shot	—
45'	Manchester United	Harry Maguire	0.08	From Corner	—	Missed Shot	Bryan Mbeumo
46'	Liverpool	Dominik Szoboszlai	0.11	Open Play	Left Foot	Goal	—
47'	Manchester United	Bryan Mbeumo	0.05	From Corner	Left Foot	Blocked Shot	Bruno Fernandes
52'	Manchester United	Bryan Mbeumo	0.16	Open Play	Right Foot	Shot On Post	Bruno Fernandes
54'	Liverpool	Florian Wirtz	0.03	Open Play	Right Foot	Missed Shot	Dominik Szoboszlai
55'	Liverpool	Cody Gakpo	0.40	Open Play	Left Foot	Goal	Dominik Szoboszlai
57'	Manchester United	Bryan Mbeumo	0.07	Open Play	Left Foot	Missed Shot	Bruno Fernandes
62'	Liverpool	Cody Gakpo	0.11	Open Play	Left Foot	Blocked Shot	Florian Wirtz
63'	Liverpool	Virgil van Dijk	0.01	From Corner	—	Saved Shot	Dominik Szoboszlai
69'	Liverpool	Cody Gakpo	0.04	From Corner	—	Missed Shot	Dominik Szoboszlai
71'	Manchester United	Casemiro	0.25	Set Piece	—	Saved Shot	Bruno Fernandes
73'	Liverpool	Dominik Szoboszlai	0.03	Direct Freekick	Right Foot	Blocked Shot	—
76'	Manchester United	Kobbie Mainoo	0.05	Open Play	Right Foot	Goal	—
81'	Liverpool	Rio Ngumoha	0.05	Open Play	Right Foot	Missed Shot	Milos Kerkez
83'	Liverpool	Cody Gakpo	0.06	Open Play	Right Foot	Saved Shot	Rio Ngumoha
85'	Manchester United	Kobbie Mainoo	0.03	Open Play	Right Foot	Blocked Shot	Casemiro
89'	Manchester United	Patrick Dorgu	0.04	Open Play	Left Foot	Missed Shot	Casemiro
90'	Manchester United	Bruno Fernandes	0.03	Set Piece	Right Foot	Saved Shot	—
95'	Manchester United	Diogo Dalot	0.09	Open Play	Right Foot	Missed Shot	Amad Diallo Traore

Players

Liverpool

Player	Min	G	A	Sh	KP	xG	xA	xGChain
Cody Gakpo AMC	90	1	0	5	1	0.65	0.07	0.68
Dominik Szoboszlai FW	90	1	1	2	4	0.14	0.48	0.83
Florian Wirtz FW	90	0	0	2	3	0.09	0.19	0.33
Ryan Gravenberch DMC	90	0	0	2	0	0.08	0.00	0.16
Virgil van Dijk DC	90	0	0	1	0	0.01	0.00	0.21
Curtis Jones DR	90	0	0	0	0	0.00	0.00	0.15
Freddie Woodman GK	90	0	0	0	0	0.00	0.00	0.13
Ibrahima Konaté DC	90	0	0	0	0	0.00	0.00	0.20
Alexis Mac Allister DMC	90	0	0	0	1	0.00	0.05	0.72
Jeremie Frimpong AMC	79	0	0	0	0	0.00	0.00	0.19
Andrew Robertson DL	63	0	0	0	0	0.00	0.00	0.10
Milos Kerkez Sub	27	0	0	0	1	0.00	0.05	0.10
Rio Ngumoha Sub	11	0	0	1	1	0.05	0.06	0.10
Federico Chiesa Sub	1	0	0	0	0	0.00	0.00	0.00