Manchester United v Manchester City — Prediction, Odds & Stats

Sunday 13 September 2026 · ENG-Premier League · 2627

Premier League xG Prediction generated 5 Sep 2026, 14:39

Manchester United

11:30

Manchester City

AI prediction

ai-blend v1.0 daily Priced 7 Sep, 07:51 · 152h before kick-off

Manchester United win

42.6%

model 41.1%

Draw

20.7%

model 23.6%

Manchester City win

36.6%

model 35.3%

432137

Calibrated: the model's number corrected by how often calls at that confidence have landed, out of sample (483 settled matches in the thinnest band), then normalised. The smaller figure is the raw model output.

Top 5 scorelines

1-1 10.6%
2-1 8.7%
1-2 8.0%
1-0 7.1%
2-2 6.6%

Goals

Over 2.5	60.7%	Under 2.5	39.3%
BTTS yes	62.6%	BTTS no	37.4%
Manchester United 1+	80.6%	Manchester United 2+	48.7%
Manchester City 1+	77.7%	Manchester City 2+	44.3%

Expected goals 1.64 – 1.50. Every market above is read off one scoreline distribution.

Footing

AI confidence

91/100

Data quality

100/100

Model agreement

91%

★ Best pick

Under 1.5 in 1st half

Over/Under 1HT · usually 64%

68.7% fair odds 1.46

moderate signal · 1576 settled matches behind the band

★ Most likely to land

Not both to score by HT

GG/NG half time · usually 80%

83.2% fair odds 1.20

moderate signal · 1227 settled matches behind the band

Positive factors

Manchester United have created 2.09 xG a match over their last five while Manchester City have allowed 1.33.
Form is good: 2.00 points a match from the last five.
At home Manchester United average 2.99 xG a match.

Risk factors

No specific risk flags beyond the usual variance of a football match.

Why the model thinks this

The price

Manchester United have an estimated 42.6% win probability, against 36.6% for Manchester City and 20.7% for the draw. Expected goals from the ensemble are 1.64 for Manchester United and 1.50 for Manchester City.

Why Manchester United

Manchester United have created 2.09 xG a match over their last five while Manchester City have allowed 1.33. Form is good: 2.00 points a match from the last five. At home Manchester United average 2.99 xG a match.

Why the draw is live

The draw sits at 20.7%. The sides are closely matched on expected goals, 1.64 to 1.50. Draws run at 25% in this competition.

Why Manchester City can win

Manchester City carry the stronger rating, 1801 Elo against 1694. Manchester City have created 2.37 xG a match over their last five while Manchester United have allowed 1.47. Form is good: 2.00 points a match from the last five. Away from home Manchester City average 2.22 xG a match.

Key players

Manchester United's leading contributors by expected goal involvements a match: Bruno Fernandes (0.74), Bryan Mbeumo (0.51), Matheus Cunha (0.36). Manchester City's leading contributors by expected goal involvements a match: Erling Haaland (0.84), Mathis Cherki (0.41), Phil Foden (0.36).

Availability

1 of Manchester City's top three contributors did not start their last match. 27% of Manchester City's last eleven are new to the club this window.

The matchup, as far as the data reaches

Manchester United: 56% possession, 21.6 shots a match, 11.8 faced, 0.25 xG a match from set pieces. Manchester City: 65% possession, 15.4 shots a match, 9.6 faced, 0.46 xG a match from set pieces.

Inputs last refreshed: matches 2026-09-07 06:03 · team_stats 2026-09-07 06:05 · availability 2026-09-07 07:51 · prediction 2026-09-05 18:39 ·

Manchester United are the model's most likely outcome at 42.6%. The likeliest scoreline is 1-1 at 10.6%. Confidence 91/100, data quality 100/100. These are probabilities, not certainties: the less likely outcome happens as often as its number says.

Written from the numbers the model saw, not by a language model; nothing here is a statistic the snapshot does not hold. How predictions work.

Was this pick made in advance?

A model whose name ends -oos is out of sample: it was fitted only on matches played before this one, so its pick is a genuine forecast rather than hindsight. Anything without that suffix was fitted on all available data.

What the chances say

Manchester United have scored 20 from 20.9 expected and conceded 13 from 14.7 — both ends in line with the chances, so the recent record is a fair reflection.

LWWWDWWLWD last 10 scored 20 from 20.9 xG conceded 13 from 14.7 xG

Manchester City are finishing below their chances — 2.7 goals fewer than expected across 10 matches, despite creating the openings. They are also conceding sharply fewer than expected — 4.3 goals saved beyond what the chances suggest.

WWDWWDLWWW last 10 scored 21 from 23.7 xG conceded 9 from 13.3 xG

Finishing swings far more than chance creation, so a gap this size usually narrows. Over ten matches it is suggestive, not settled — a genuinely elite finisher beats expected goals for years.

What the model said

Model	Home / Draw / Away	Expected goals	Likeliest score	O2.5	BTTS
ai-blend	412435	1.64–1.50	0%	0%	0%
dc-goals	312544	1.43–1.75	1-1 11%	61%	64%
dc-xg	322344	1.44–1.72	1-1 11%	61%	63%

A model whose name ends -oos was produced by the walk-forward backtest: it was fitted only on matches played before this one, so the pick is genuinely out of sample.

Using this section

Every selection the model prices for this fixture, grouped by family — click a heading to open it. Calibrated is the number to read; lift shows how far it sits from what that selection normally does in this league. To compare selections across fixtures instead, use the Radar.

All markets

Every selection below comes from the same scoreline distribution, so they are mutually consistent rather than independently guessed. Calibrated is the model corrected by its own out-of-sample record; lift is how much more likely that is than the selection simply being true in this league anyway.

1X2 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Manchester United to win	38.8%	36.4%	43.1%	0.85×	2.75
Manchester City to win	38.4%	36.4%	32.3%	1.13×	2.75
Draw	22.8%	24.5%	24.7%	0.99×	4.09

1X2 & GG/NG 6

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Manchester United & both teams score	23.5%	21.9%	22.9%	0.96×	4.57
Manchester City & both teams score	23.3%	21.9%	15.5%	1.41×	4.57
Draw & both teams score	19.3%	17.9%	20.0%	0.90×	5.58
Manchester United & not both score	15.3%	17.9%	20.3%	0.88×	5.58
Manchester City & not both score	15.1%	17.9%	16.8%	1.07×	5.58
Draw & not both score	3.5%	4.9%	4.9%	1.00×	20.58

1X2 & Over/Under 18

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Manchester United & over 1.5	32.9%	30.9%	36.7%	0.84×	3.24
Manchester City & over 1.5	32.6%	30.9%	25.4%	1.21×	3.24
Manchester United & over 2.5	28.0%	26.0%	30.2%	0.86×	3.84
Manchester City & over 2.5	27.7%	26.0%	20.0%	1.30×	3.84
Manchester United & under 3.5	21.8%	21.7%	26.8%	0.81×	4.62
Manchester City & under 3.5	21.6%	21.7%	21.7%	1.00×	4.62
Draw & over 1.5	19.3%	18.0%	20.0%	0.90×	5.56
Manchester United & over 3.5	17.0%	18.0%	16.4%	1.10×	5.56
Manchester City & over 3.5	16.7%	18.0%	10.7%	1.69×	5.56
Draw & under 2.5	13.3%	12.9%	16.3%	0.79×	7.77
Draw & under 3.5	13.3%	12.9%	16.3%	0.79×	7.77
Manchester United & under 2.5	10.8%	12.9%	13.0%	0.99×	7.77
Manchester City & under 2.5	10.7%	12.9%	12.4%	1.04×	7.77
Draw & over 2.5	9.5%	7.9%	8.5%	0.92×	12.69
Draw & over 3.5	9.5%	7.9%	8.5%	0.92×	12.69
Manchester United & under 1.5	5.9%	7.9%	6.5%	1.21×	12.70
Manchester City & under 1.5	5.8%	7.9%	6.9%	1.14×	12.70
Draw & under 1.5	3.5%	4.8%	4.9%	0.98×	20.94

1X2 1UP 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Manchester United (1UP)	58.4%	58.2%	62.1%	0.94×	1.72
Manchester City (1UP)	58.0%	58.1%	51.4%	1.13×	1.72

1X2 2UP 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Manchester United (2UP)	38.8%	37.2%	44.9%	0.83×	2.69
Manchester City (2UP)	38.4%	37.2%	34.5%	1.08×	2.69

2nd half 1X2 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Manchester United to win 2nd half	38.5%	36.1%	36.3%	0.99×	2.77
Manchester City to win 2nd half	32.5%	34.5%	32.9%	1.05×	2.90
2nd half drawn	29.0%	26.3%	30.9%	0.85×	3.80

Asian handicap 8

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Manchester City (+2.5)	91.8%	92.1%	89.2%	1.03×	1.09
Manchester City (+1.5)	80.3%	82.4%	76.0%	1.08×	1.21
Manchester United (+0.5)	61.6%	62.9%	67.7%	0.93×	1.59
Manchester City (+0.5)	61.2%	62.9%	56.9%	1.11×	1.59
Manchester United (-0.5)	38.8%	37.1%	43.1%	0.86×	2.70
Manchester City (-0.5)	38.4%	37.1%	32.3%	1.15×	2.70
Manchester United (-1.5)	19.7%	17.6%	24.0%	0.73×	5.68
Manchester United (-2.5)	8.2%	7.9%	10.8%	0.74×	12.62

Away clean sheet 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Manchester City to concede	81.4%	81.3%	78.4%	1.04×	1.23
Manchester City clean sheet	18.6%	18.7%	21.6%	0.87×	5.35

Away clean sheet 1HT 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Manchester City clean sheet in 1st half	59.4%	58.6%	48.6%	1.20×	1.71
Manchester City to concede in 1st half	40.6%	41.4%	51.4%	0.81×	2.41

Away corners O/U 10

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Manchester City over 2.5 corners	86.8%	85.2%	—	—	1.17
Manchester City over 3.5 corners	75.4%	75.9%	—	—	1.32
Manchester City under 6.5 corners	63.9%	61.8%	—	—	1.62
Manchester City over 4.5 corners	62.1%	61.8%	—	—	1.62
Manchester City under 5.5 corners	51.5%	53.1%	—	—	1.88
Manchester City over 5.5 corners	48.5%	46.9%	—	—	2.13
Manchester City under 4.5 corners	37.9%	38.2%	—	—	2.62
Manchester City over 6.5 corners	36.1%	38.2%	—	—	2.62
Manchester City under 3.5 corners	24.6%	24.1%	—	—	4.16
Manchester City under 2.5 corners	13.2%	14.8%	—	—	6.75

Away goals O/U 8

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Manchester City under 3.5 goals	91.1%	92.3%	94.5%	0.98×	1.08
Manchester City over 0.5 goals	81.2%	81.4%	74.9%	1.09×	1.23
Manchester City under 2.5 goals	76.4%	76.2%	85.0%	0.90×	1.31
Manchester City under 1.5 goals	50.1%	53.6%	60.6%	0.89×	1.86
Manchester City over 1.5 goals	49.9%	46.4%	39.4%	1.18×	2.16
Manchester City over 2.5 goals	23.6%	23.8%	15.0%	1.58×	4.21
Manchester City under 0.5 goals	18.8%	18.6%	25.1%	0.74×	5.38
Manchester City over 3.5 goals	8.9%	7.7%	5.5%	1.41×	13.02

Away goals O/U 1HT 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Manchester City under 1.5 in 1st half	86.8%	89.0%	89.2%	1.00×	1.12
Manchester City under 0.5 in 1st half	53.2%	56.2%	59.4%	0.95×	1.78
Manchester City over 0.5 in 1st half	46.8%	43.8%	40.6%	1.08×	2.28
Manchester City over 1.5 in 1st half	13.2%	11.0%	10.8%	1.01×	9.10

Away no bet 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Manchester United (away no bet)	63.0%	62.1%	63.5%	0.98×	1.61
Draw (away no bet)	37.0%	37.9%	36.5%	1.04×	2.64

Away Odd/Even 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Manchester City even goals	51.8%	52.8%	53.7%	0.98×	1.89
Manchester City odd goals	48.2%	47.2%	46.3%	1.02×	2.12

Both halves O1.5 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Not both halves over 1.5	79.3%	82.3%	80.1%	1.03×	1.22
Both halves over 1.5 goals	20.7%	17.7%	19.9%	0.89×	5.65

Both halves U1.5 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Not both halves under 1.5	76.0%	72.5%	70.2%	1.03×	1.38
Both halves under 1.5 goals	24.0%	27.5%	29.8%	0.92×	3.64

Consecutive goals 6

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Either team to score 2+ in a row	66.2%	62.1%	61.4%	1.01×	1.61
Manchester United to score 2+ in a row	38.7%	36.5%	39.1%	0.94×	2.74
Manchester City to score 2+ in a row	38.4%	36.5%	29.9%	1.22×	2.74
Either team to score 3+ in a row	26.6%	25.0%	26.2%	0.96×	4.00
Manchester United to score 3+ in a row	13.7%	12.2%	16.5%	0.74×	8.19
Manchester City to score 3+ in a row	13.5%	12.2%	10.2%	1.20×	8.19

Corner handicap 12

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Manchester City corners (+3.5)	92.0%	89.6%	—	—	1.12
Manchester City corners (+2.5)	87.2%	84.5%	—	—	1.18
Manchester City corners (+1.5)	80.6%	79.7%	—	—	1.25
Manchester United corners (+3.5)	68.8%	65.8%	—	—	1.52
Manchester United corners (+2.5)	59.1%	57.1%	—	—	1.75
Manchester City corners (-1.5)	51.6%	52.5%	—	—	1.91
Manchester United corners (+1.5)	48.4%	47.5%	—	—	2.10
Manchester City corners (-2.5)	40.9%	42.9%	—	—	2.33
Manchester City corners (-3.5)	31.2%	34.2%	—	—	2.92
Manchester United corners (-1.5)	19.4%	20.3%	—	—	4.93
Manchester United corners (-2.5)	12.8%	15.5%	—	—	6.45
Manchester United corners (-3.5)	8.0%	10.4%	—	—	9.59

Corner range 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
0-8 corners	40.4%	38.6%	—	—	2.59
12+ corners	30.3%	33.2%	—	—	3.01
9-11 corners	29.4%	31.2%	—	—	3.20

Corners O/U 12

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Under 12.5 corners	77.3%	76.5%	—	—	1.31
Over 7.5 corners	69.9%	67.7%	—	—	1.48
Under 11.5 corners	69.7%	67.7%	—	—	1.48
Under 10.5 corners	60.8%	63.4%	—	—	1.58
Over 8.5 corners	59.6%	57.8%	—	—	1.73
Under 9.5 corners	50.9%	53.3%	—	—	1.88
Over 9.5 corners	49.1%	46.7%	—	—	2.14
Under 8.5 corners	40.4%	42.2%	—	—	2.37
Over 10.5 corners	39.2%	36.6%	—	—	2.73
Under 7.5 corners	30.1%	32.3%	—	—	3.10
Over 11.5 corners	30.3%	32.3%	—	—	3.10
Over 12.5 corners	22.7%	23.5%	—	—	4.26

Corners Odd/Even 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Odd number of corners	50.0%	50.2%	—	—	1.99
Even number of corners	50.0%	49.8%	—	—	2.01

Correct score 26

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
1-1	9.8%	7.4%	11.5%	0.64×	13.48
1-2	8.2%	7.4%	6.9%	1.07×	13.48
2-1	8.3%	7.4%	9.0%	0.83×	13.48
2-2	6.9%	7.4%	7.6%	0.98×	13.48
0-1	5.8%	7.4%	6.9%	1.07×	13.48
1-0	5.9%	7.4%	6.5%	1.14×	13.48
Any other score	5.6%	7.4%	4.2%	1.77×	13.48
0-2	4.9%	1.7%	5.5%	0.31×	58.46
2-0	4.9%	1.7%	6.6%	0.26×	58.46
0-0	3.5%	1.7%	4.9%	0.35×	58.47
0-3	2.7%	1.7%	2.6%	0.67×	58.47
0-4	1.1%	1.7%	1.1%	1.54×	58.48
1-3	4.6%	1.7%	3.2%	0.53×	58.46
1-4	1.9%	1.7%	1.5%	1.18×	58.48
2-3	3.9%	1.7%	2.4%	0.72×	58.47
2-4	1.6%	1.7%	0.7%	2.51×	58.48
3-0	2.8%	1.7%	5.0%	0.34×	58.47
3-1	4.6%	1.7%	5.5%	0.31×	58.46
3-2	3.9%	1.7%	3.1%	0.56×	58.47
3-3	2.2%	1.7%	0.8%	2.23×	58.48
3-4	0.9%	1.7%	0.5%	3.34×	58.48
4-0	1.2%	1.7%	1.4%	1.25×	58.48
4-1	2.0%	1.7%	2.2%	0.77×	58.48
4-2	1.6%	1.7%	1.4%	1.25×	58.48
4-3	0.9%	1.7%	0.9%	1.82×	58.48
4-4	0.4%	1.7%	0.3%	5.01×	58.49

DNB half time 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Manchester City leading at HT (DNB)	56.2%	57.6%	40.4%	1.43×	1.74
Manchester United leading at HT (DNB)	43.8%	42.4%	59.6%	0.71×	2.36

Double chance 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Manchester United or Manchester City (12)	77.2%	75.5%	75.3%	1.00×	1.32
Manchester United or draw (1X)	61.6%	63.6%	67.7%	0.94×	1.57
Manchester City or draw (X2)	61.2%	63.6%	56.9%	1.12×	1.57

Double chance 1HT 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Manchester City or draw at HT	75.0%	74.4%	63.8%	1.17×	1.34
Manchester United or draw at HT	67.9%	66.4%	75.5%	0.88×	1.51
Manchester United or Manchester City at HT	57.1%	56.9%	60.6%	0.94×	1.76

Double chance 1UP 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Manchester United or draw (1UP)	61.6%	71.6%	74.4%	0.96×	1.40
Manchester City or draw (1UP)	61.2%	71.6%	65.2%	1.10×	1.40

Double chance 2HT 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Manchester United or Manchester City in 2nd half	71.0%	73.7%	69.1%	1.07×	1.36
Manchester United or draw in 2nd half	67.5%	65.5%	67.2%	0.98×	1.53
Manchester City or draw in 2nd half	61.5%	63.9%	63.7%	1.00×	1.57

Draw either half 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
A half drawn	59.4%	58.1%	56.7%	1.02×	1.72
Neither half drawn	40.6%	41.9%	43.3%	0.97×	2.39

Draw no bet 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Manchester United (DNB)	50.3%	50.9%	57.2%	0.89×	1.97
Manchester City (DNB)	49.7%	49.1%	42.8%	1.15×	2.04

First goal 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Manchester United to score first	48.4%	45.6%	52.0%	0.88×	2.19
Manchester City to score first	48.1%	45.6%	43.3%	1.05×	2.19
No goal scored	3.5%	4.3%	4.9%	0.88×	23.36

GG/NG 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Both teams to score	66.2%	58.2%	58.2%	1.00×	1.72
Not both teams to score	33.8%	41.8%	41.8%	1.00×	2.39

GG/NG & Over/Under 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Both score & over 2.5	56.4%	47.2%	46.8%	1.01×	2.12
Not both score & under 2.5	25.0%	27.8%	30.0%	0.92×	3.60
Both score & under 2.5	9.8%	8.4%	11.5%	0.73×	11.95
Not both score & over 2.5	8.8%	8.4%	11.9%	0.71×	11.95

GG/NG 2+ 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Not both teams to score 2+	75.0%	80.7%	82.2%	0.98×	1.24
Both teams to score 2+	25.0%	19.3%	17.8%	1.08×	5.18

GG/NG 2nd half 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Not both to score in 2nd half	55.5%	65.9%	68.9%	0.96×	1.52
Both teams to score in 2nd half	44.5%	34.1%	31.1%	1.10×	2.93

GG/NG by half 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Neither half both score	44.9%	50.4%	55.9%	0.90×	1.98
Both score 2nd half only	36.0%	43.6%	24.6%	1.77×	2.30
Both score 1st half only	10.6%	10.7%	13.1%	0.82×	9.34
Both score in both halves	8.5%	6.8%	6.7%	1.02×	14.67

GG/NG half time 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Not both to score by HT	81.0%	82.3%	80.4%	1.02×	1.22
Both teams to score by HT	19.0%	17.7%	19.6%	0.90×	5.66

Goal in both halves 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
A goal in each half	60.9%	58.8%	61.9%	0.95×	1.70
A half without a goal	39.1%	41.2%	38.1%	1.08×	2.43

Goal range 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
2-3 goals	41.6%	42.1%	46.6%	0.90×	2.38
4-6 goals	37.8%	35.1%	32.7%	1.07×	2.85
0-1 goals	15.2%	20.2%	18.1%	1.11×	4.96
7+ goals	5.5%	7.6%	2.8%	2.68×	13.23

Goals away 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Manchester City to score exactly 1	31.4%	33.8%	35.6%	0.95×	2.96
Manchester City to score exactly 2	26.3%	27.4%	24.5%	1.12×	3.65
Manchester City to score 3+	23.6%	22.4%	15.0%	1.49×	4.46
Manchester City to score exactly 0	18.8%	19.6%	25.1%	0.78×	5.11

Goals home 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Manchester United to score exactly 1	31.3%	32.6%	29.6%	1.10×	3.06
Manchester United to score exactly 2	26.3%	26.5%	26.1%	1.02×	3.77
Manchester United to score 3+	23.9%	23.2%	22.9%	1.02×	4.30
Manchester United to score exactly 0	18.6%	18.9%	21.6%	0.88×	5.29

Half time 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Draw at HT	42.9%	43.1%	39.4%	1.09×	2.32
Manchester City leading at HT	32.1%	33.6%	24.5%	1.37×	2.98
Manchester United leading at HT	25.0%	25.6%	36.2%	0.71×	3.91

Handicap 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Manchester United -1: 2	61.2%	62.4%	—	—	1.60
Manchester United -1: 1	19.7%	17.5%	—	—	5.71
Manchester United -1: X	19.1%	17.5%	—	—	5.71

Handicap 0:1 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Manchester City (0:1)	61.2%	61.4%	56.9%	1.08×	1.63
Manchester United (0:1)	19.7%	17.8%	24.0%	0.74×	5.62
Draw (0:1)	19.1%	17.8%	19.2%	0.93×	5.63

Handicap 0:2 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Manchester City (0:2)	80.3%	82.8%	76.0%	1.09×	1.21
Draw (0:2)	11.6%	11.0%	13.3%	0.82×	9.12
Manchester United (0:2)	8.2%	7.7%	10.8%	0.72×	12.94

Handicap 0:3 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Manchester City (0:3)	91.8%	92.6%	89.2%	1.04×	1.08
Draw (0:3)	5.4%	5.8%	7.5%	0.77×	17.19
Manchester United (0:3)	2.8%	2.4%	3.3%	0.71×	42.14

Handicap 0:4 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Manchester City (0:4)	97.2%	98.1%	96.7%	1.01×	1.02
Draw (0:4)	2.0%	1.2%	2.0%	0.59×	83.45
Manchester United (0:4)	0.8%	1.2%	1.4%	0.88×	83.59

Handicap 1:0 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Manchester United (1:0)	61.6%	65.1%	67.7%	0.96×	1.54
Manchester City (1:0)	19.4%	17.0%	15.8%	1.08×	5.87
Draw (1:0)	18.9%	17.0%	16.6%	1.03×	5.87

Handicap 2:0 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Manchester United (2:0)	80.6%	84.5%	84.2%	1.00×	1.18
Draw (2:0)	11.4%	10.4%	9.3%	1.12×	9.64
Manchester City (2:0)	8.0%	6.5%	6.6%	0.98×	15.48

Highest scoring half 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
2nd half highest scoring	61.2%	61.2%	49.7%	1.23×	1.63
Halves equal	19.8%	19.5%	24.7%	0.79×	5.14
1st half highest scoring	18.9%	19.2%	25.8%	0.75×	5.21

Home clean sheet 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Manchester United to concede	81.2%	80.8%	74.9%	1.08×	1.24
Manchester United clean sheet	18.8%	19.2%	25.1%	0.77×	5.20

Home clean sheet 1HT 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Manchester United clean sheet in 1st half	53.2%	56.2%	59.4%	0.95×	1.78
Manchester United to concede in 1st half	46.8%	43.8%	40.6%	1.08×	2.28

Home corners O/U 10

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Manchester United under 6.5 corners	85.4%	86.3%	—	—	1.16
Manchester United under 5.5 corners	76.0%	76.6%	—	—	1.31
Manchester United over 2.5 corners	70.8%	71.9%	—	—	1.39
Manchester United under 4.5 corners	63.0%	62.3%	—	—	1.61
Manchester United over 3.5 corners	53.2%	52.8%	—	—	1.90
Manchester United under 3.5 corners	46.8%	47.2%	—	—	2.12
Manchester United over 4.5 corners	37.0%	37.7%	—	—	2.65
Manchester United under 2.5 corners	29.2%	28.1%	—	—	3.56
Manchester United over 5.5 corners	24.0%	23.5%	—	—	4.26
Manchester United over 6.5 corners	14.6%	13.7%	—	—	7.28

Home goals O/U 8

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Manchester United under 3.5 goals	90.9%	92.2%	91.6%	1.01×	1.08
Manchester United over 0.5 goals	81.4%	82.1%	78.4%	1.05×	1.22
Manchester United under 2.5 goals	76.2%	77.7%	77.1%	1.01×	1.29
Manchester United over 1.5 goals	50.2%	53.2%	48.9%	1.09×	1.88
Manchester United under 1.5 goals	49.8%	46.8%	51.1%	0.92×	2.14
Manchester United over 2.5 goals	23.9%	22.3%	22.9%	0.97×	4.49
Manchester United under 0.5 goals	18.6%	17.9%	21.6%	0.83×	5.59
Manchester United over 3.5 goals	9.1%	7.8%	8.4%	0.93×	12.89

Home goals O/U 1HT 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Manchester United under 1.5 in 1st half	90.3%	95.2%	84.5%	1.13×	1.05
Manchester United under 0.5 in 1st half	59.4%	58.2%	48.6%	1.20×	1.72
Manchester United over 0.5 in 1st half	40.6%	41.8%	51.4%	0.81×	2.39
Manchester United over 1.5 in 1st half	9.7%	4.8%	15.5%	0.31×	20.91

Home no bet 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Manchester City (home no bet)	62.7%	60.2%	56.6%	1.06×	1.66
Draw (home no bet)	37.3%	39.8%	43.4%	0.92×	2.51

Home Odd/Even 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Manchester United even goals	51.7%	50.6%	53.8%	0.94×	1.98
Manchester United odd goals	48.3%	49.4%	46.2%	1.07×	2.03

HT correct score 10

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
HT 0-0	31.6%	32.3%	27.6%	1.17×	3.10
HT 0-1	19.9%	18.8%	14.8%	1.26×	5.33
HT 1-0	16.5%	18.7%	21.8%	0.86×	5.34
HT 1-1	10.4%	10.9%	10.9%	1.00×	9.17
HT 0-2	6.3%	7.1%	4.5%	1.57×	14.06
HT 2-0	4.3%	2.3%	8.1%	0.29×	43.29
Any other HT score	4.2%	2.3%	5.3%	0.44×	43.30
HT 1-2	3.3%	2.3%	2.8%	0.82×	43.37
HT 2-1	2.7%	2.3%	3.8%	0.61×	43.41
HT 2-2	0.9%	2.3%	1.0%	2.24×	43.55

HT/FT 9

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Manchester City at HT / Manchester City at FT	21.9%	21.8%	16.9%	1.29×	4.59
Manchester United at HT / Manchester United at FT	18.1%	16.8%	26.3%	0.64×	5.96
Draw at HT / Manchester United at FT	16.5%	16.8%	14.0%	1.20×	5.97
Draw at HT / Manchester City at FT	13.9%	12.7%	12.0%	1.05×	7.88
Draw at HT / Draw at FT	12.4%	12.7%	13.6%	0.93×	7.89
Manchester City at HT / Draw at FT	6.1%	6.0%	4.8%	1.25×	16.71
Manchester United at HT / Draw at FT	4.3%	3.5%	6.6%	0.53×	28.79
Manchester City at HT / Manchester United at FT	4.2%	3.5%	3.0%	1.16×	28.80
Manchester United at HT / Manchester City at FT	2.6%	3.5%	3.5%	0.99×	28.86

Last goal 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Manchester United to score last	48.4%	46.8%	50.3%	0.93×	2.14
Manchester City to score last	48.1%	46.8%	44.9%	1.04×	2.14
No goal scored	3.5%	4.3%	4.9%	0.88×	23.36

Lead at any time 9

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Either team to lead by 1 at any time	96.5%	95.6%	95.1%	1.01×	1.05
Manchester United to lead by 1 at any time	58.4%	55.1%	62.1%	0.89×	1.81
Manchester City to lead by 1 at any time	58.0%	55.1%	51.4%	1.07×	1.81
Either team to lead by 2 at any time	54.9%	50.8%	50.8%	1.00×	1.97
Manchester United to lead by 2 at any time	27.9%	25.5%	29.9%	0.85×	3.93
Manchester City to lead by 2 at any time	27.5%	25.4%	21.2%	1.20×	3.93
Either team to lead by 3 at any time	21.8%	19.6%	21.2%	0.93×	5.10
Manchester United to lead by 3 at any time	11.0%	10.4%	13.1%	0.79×	9.58
Manchester City to lead by 3 at any time	10.8%	10.4%	8.1%	1.29×	9.58

Most corners 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Manchester City most corners	62.3%	60.5%	—	—	1.65
Manchester United most corners	27.8%	31.0%	—	—	3.23
Corners level	9.9%	8.5%	—	—	11.80

Multi goal 15

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
1-5 goals	84.1%	83.5%	88.5%	0.94×	1.20
2-6 goals	79.4%	78.6%	79.2%	0.99×	1.27
2-5 goals	72.4%	72.4%	75.3%	0.96×	1.38
1-4 goals	71.7%	72.4%	78.2%	0.93×	1.38
2-4 goals	60.0%	63.4%	64.9%	0.98×	1.58
3-6 goals	59.7%	59.2%	55.8%	1.06×	1.69
1-3 goals	53.3%	53.2%	59.8%	0.89×	1.88
3-5 goals	52.8%	53.2%	51.9%	1.03×	1.88
2-3 goals	41.6%	43.6%	46.6%	0.94×	2.30
3-4 goals	40.4%	43.6%	41.6%	1.05×	2.30
4-6 goals	37.8%	39.2%	32.7%	1.20×	2.55
1-2 goals	31.3%	35.4%	36.7%	0.96×	2.83
4-5 goals	30.8%	35.4%	28.8%	1.23×	2.83
5-6 goals	19.3%	18.6%	14.3%	1.30×	5.37
7+ goals	5.5%	8.7%	2.8%	3.10×	11.46

Never down 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Manchester United never behind	38.5%	44.8%	48.6%	0.92×	2.23
Manchester City never behind	38.1%	44.8%	37.9%	1.18×	2.23

Odd/Even 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Odd number of goals	49.9%	50.8%	49.0%	1.04×	1.97
Even number of goals	50.1%	49.2%	51.0%	0.96×	2.03

Odd/Even 1HT 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Even goals in 1st half	55.0%	51.7%	53.4%	0.97×	1.93
Odd goals in 1st half	45.0%	48.3%	46.6%	1.04×	2.07

Odd/Even 2HT 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Even goals in 2nd half	50.6%	52.0%	51.8%	1.00×	1.92
Odd goals in 2nd half	49.4%	48.0%	48.2%	0.99×	2.09

Over/Under 12

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Over 0.5 goals	96.5%	95.5%	95.1%	1.00×	1.05
Under 5.5 goals	87.6%	87.6%	93.3%	0.94×	1.14
Over 1.5 goals	84.8%	82.4%	81.9%	1.01×	1.21
Under 4.5 goals	75.2%	77.3%	82.9%	0.93×	1.29
Over 2.5 goals	65.2%	66.2%	58.5%	1.13×	1.51
Under 3.5 goals	56.8%	58.8%	64.6%	0.91×	1.70
Over 3.5 goals	43.2%	41.2%	35.4%	1.16×	2.43
Under 2.5 goals	34.8%	33.8%	41.5%	0.82×	2.96
Over 4.5 goals	24.8%	22.7%	17.1%	1.33×	4.41
Under 1.5 goals	15.2%	17.6%	18.1%	0.97×	5.68
Over 5.5 goals	12.4%	12.4%	6.7%	1.83×	8.10
Under 0.5 goals	3.5%	4.5%	4.9%	0.93×	22.21

Over/Under (whole line) 10

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Under 6 (void on exactly 6)	94.1%	92.5%	97.1%	0.95×	1.08
Under 5 (void on exactly 5)	85.9%	86.7%	92.5%	0.94×	1.15
Over 2 (void on exactly 2)	81.1%	81.0%	76.4%	1.06×	1.23
Under 4 (void on exactly 4)	69.6%	67.4%	79.1%	0.85×	1.48
Over 3 (void on exactly 3)	55.4%	55.4%	46.1%	1.20×	1.81
Under 3 (void on exactly 3)	44.6%	44.6%	53.9%	0.83×	2.24
Over 4 (void on exactly 4)	30.4%	32.6%	20.9%	1.56×	3.07
Under 2 (void on exactly 2)	18.9%	19.0%	23.6%	0.80×	5.28
Over 5 (void on exactly 5)	14.2%	13.3%	7.5%	1.77×	7.54
Over 6 (void on exactly 6)	5.9%	7.5%	2.9%	2.57×	13.28

Over/Under 1HT 6

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Under 2.5 in 1st half	89.0%	89.0%	87.4%	1.02×	1.12
Over 0.5 in 1st half	68.4%	69.0%	72.4%	0.95×	1.45
Under 1.5 in 1st half	68.0%	69.0%	64.1%	1.08×	1.45
Over 1.5 in 1st half	32.0%	31.0%	35.9%	0.86×	3.23
Under 0.5 in 1st half	31.6%	31.0%	27.6%	1.12×	3.23
Over 2.5 in 1st half	11.0%	11.0%	12.6%	0.87×	9.12

Over/Under 2HT 6

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Over 0.5 in 2nd half	89.0%	85.4%	84.7%	1.01×	1.17
Over 1.5 in 2nd half	64.7%	61.9%	54.2%	1.14×	1.62
Under 2.5 in 2nd half	62.1%	61.7%	75.9%	0.81×	1.62
Over 2.5 in 2nd half	37.9%	38.3%	24.1%	1.59×	2.61
Under 1.5 in 2nd half	35.3%	38.1%	45.8%	0.83×	2.62
Under 0.5 in 2nd half	11.0%	14.6%	15.3%	0.95×	6.87

Score both halves 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Manchester United not to score in both halves	72.1%	73.8%	68.7%	1.07×	1.36
Manchester City not to score in both halves	69.7%	70.6%	76.8%	0.92×	1.42
Manchester City to score in both halves	30.3%	29.4%	23.2%	1.27×	3.40
Manchester United to score in both halves	27.9%	26.2%	31.3%	0.84×	3.81

Teams to score 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Both teams score	66.2%	59.5%	58.2%	1.02×	1.68
Only Manchester United scores	15.3%	16.1%	20.3%	0.79×	6.22
Only Manchester City scores	15.1%	16.1%	16.8%	0.96×	6.23
Neither team scores	3.5%	4.6%	4.9%	0.94×	21.84

Total goals 7

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Exactly 3 goals	22.0%	22.6%	23.2%	0.97×	4.42
Exactly 2 goals	19.6%	17.4%	23.5%	0.74×	5.74
Exactly 4 goals	18.4%	17.4%	18.4%	0.95×	5.74
Exactly 5 goals	12.4%	12.1%	10.4%	1.16×	8.27
6 or more goals	12.4%	12.1%	6.7%	1.79×	8.27
Exactly 1 goals	11.7%	12.1%	13.3%	0.91×	8.28
Exactly 0 goals	3.5%	4.4%	4.9%	0.91×	22.67

Total goals 2nd half 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
2+ goals in 2nd half	64.7%	58.8%	54.2%	1.09×	1.70
1 goal in 2nd half	24.3%	23.2%	30.6%	0.76×	4.31
No goals in 2nd half	11.0%	14.3%	15.3%	0.94×	6.97

Win both halves 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Manchester United not to win both halves	90.4%	93.9%	86.5%	1.09×	1.07
Manchester City not to win both halves	89.6%	88.0%	91.2%	0.96×	1.14
Manchester City to win both halves	10.4%	12.0%	8.8%	1.37×	8.32
Manchester United to win both halves	9.6%	6.1%	13.5%	0.45×	16.37

Win either half 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Manchester City to win either half	54.1%	55.0%	48.5%	1.13×	1.82
Manchester United to win either half	53.9%	55.0%	59.0%	0.93×	1.82
Manchester United to win neither half	46.1%	45.0%	41.0%	1.10×	2.22
Manchester City to win neither half	45.9%	45.0%	51.5%	0.87×	2.22

Win to nil 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Manchester City not to win to nil	84.9%	83.0%	83.2%	1.00×	1.20
Manchester United not to win to nil	84.7%	83.0%	79.7%	1.04×	1.20
Manchester United to win to nil	15.3%	17.0%	20.3%	0.84×	5.90
Manchester City to win to nil	15.1%	17.0%	16.8%	1.01×	5.90

Winning margin 7

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Draw	22.8%	24.1%	24.7%	0.98×	4.14
Manchester United by 1	19.1%	16.9%	19.2%	0.88×	5.91
Manchester City by 1	18.9%	16.9%	16.6%	1.02×	5.91
Manchester United by 2	11.6%	11.8%	13.3%	0.89×	8.48
Manchester City by 2	11.4%	11.8%	9.3%	1.27×	8.48
Manchester United by 3+	8.2%	7.3%	10.8%	0.68×	13.78
Manchester City by 3+	8.0%	7.3%	6.6%	1.10×	13.78