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Marseille v Angers — Prediction, Odds & Stats

Friday 4 October 2024 · FRA-Ligue 1 · 2425

Ligue 1 xG

1–1
0.90 – 1.19 xG
Shots
16 – 10
On target
4 – 3
Shots in box
9 – 5
xG per shot
0.06 – 0.12
Set-piece xG
0.35 – 0.21
Goals − xG
+0.10 – -0.20
Reading the xG timeline
Each step up is a shot; the height of the step is how good the chance was. Dots mark goals. A side whose line climbs steadily created chances all match. A side that scored while its line stayed flat took a rare chance — that is finishing luck, and it rarely repeats.

Expected goals by minute

0.00.30.71.01.30'15'30'45'60'75'90'Jonathan Rowe 50' — goalFarid El Melali 53' — goal
Marseille 0.90 xGAngers 1.20 xG
Reading the shot map
Each circle is a shot, placed where it was taken. Bigger means a better chance; filled circles are goals. Clusters near the goal mean a side worked good openings; lots of small circles far out means shooting from poor positions and hoping. Hover any circle for the player, minute and chance quality.

Shot map

Jean Eudes Aholou 4' — Missed Shot (0.03 xG, Set Piece)Mason Greenwood 6' — Blocked Shot (0.02 xG, Open Play)Neal Maupay 7' — Blocked Shot (0.06 xG, From Corner)Mason Greenwood 9' — Saved Shot (0.08 xG, Open Play)Jean Eudes Aholou 16' — Saved Shot (0.01 xG, Open Play)Mason Greenwood 26' — Saved Shot (0.04 xG, Direct Freekick)Ulisses García 28' — Blocked Shot (0.04 xG, Open Play)Himad Abdelli 31' — Saved Shot (0.01 xG, Open Play)Leonardo Balerdi 34' — Missed Shot (0.02 xG, Open Play)Ulisses García 34' — Blocked Shot (0.08 xG, Open Play)Ibrahima Niane 41' — Missed Shot (0.56 xG, Open Play)Jean Eudes Aholou 41' — Blocked Shot (0.06 xG, From Corner)Jean Eudes Aholou 41' — Blocked Shot (0.05 xG, From Corner)Himad Abdelli 42' — Missed Shot (0.03 xG, Open Play)Valentín Carboni 44' — Missed Shot (0.02 xG, Open Play)Jonathan Rowe 50' — Goal (0.10 xG, Open Play)Farid El Melali 53' — Goal (0.06 xG, Direct Freekick)Pierre-Emile Højbjerg 55' — Missed Shot (0.05 xG, From Corner)Farid El Melali 56' — Missed Shot (0.28 xG, Open Play)Amir Murillo 62' — Missed Shot (0.04 xG, Open Play)Jonathan Rowe 75' — Saved Shot (0.10 xG, Open Play)Mason Greenwood 77' — Blocked Shot (0.02 xG, Open Play)Farid El Melali 78' — Blocked Shot (0.09 xG, Open Play)Pierre-Emile Højbjerg 80' — Missed Shot (0.11 xG, From Corner)Pierre-Emile Højbjerg 82' — Missed Shot (0.09 xG, From Corner)Mason Greenwood 86' — Blocked Shot (0.02 xG, Open Play)
Marseille attacking right Angers attacking left Marker size is xG; filled markers are goals.

Every shot

MinTeamPlayerxG SituationBody partResultAssisted by
4' Angers Jean Eudes Aholou 0.03 Set Piece Left Foot Missed Shot
6' Marseille Mason Greenwood 0.02 Open Play Right Foot Blocked Shot Luis Henrique
7' Marseille Neal Maupay 0.06 From Corner Right Foot Blocked Shot Mason Greenwood
9' Marseille Mason Greenwood 0.08 Open Play Right Foot Saved Shot Valentín Carboni
16' Angers Jean Eudes Aholou 0.01 Open Play Left Foot Saved Shot Haris Belkebla
26' Marseille Mason Greenwood 0.04 Direct Freekick Right Foot Saved Shot
28' Marseille Ulisses García 0.04 Open Play Left Foot Blocked Shot Amir Murillo
31' Angers Himad Abdelli 0.01 Open Play Right Foot Saved Shot
34' Marseille Leonardo Balerdi 0.02 Open Play Right Foot Missed Shot Derek Cornelius
34' Marseille Ulisses García 0.08 Open Play Right Foot Blocked Shot
41' Angers Ibrahima Niane 0.56 Open Play Missed Shot Jordan Lefort
41' Angers Jean Eudes Aholou 0.06 From Corner Blocked Shot Zinedine Ferhat
41' Angers Jean Eudes Aholou 0.05 From Corner Left Foot Blocked Shot
42' Angers Himad Abdelli 0.03 Open Play Right Foot Missed Shot Florent Hanin
44' Marseille Valentín Carboni 0.02 Open Play Left Foot Missed Shot Amir Murillo
50' Marseille Jonathan Rowe 0.10 Open Play Right Foot Goal
53' Angers Farid El Melali 0.06 Direct Freekick Right Foot Goal
55' Marseille Pierre-Emile Højbjerg 0.05 From Corner Right Foot Missed Shot Derek Cornelius
56' Angers Farid El Melali 0.28 Open Play Right Foot Missed Shot Jean Eudes Aholou
62' Marseille Amir Murillo 0.04 Open Play Right Foot Missed Shot Pierre-Emile Højbjerg
75' Marseille Jonathan Rowe 0.10 Open Play Left Foot Saved Shot Pierre-Emile Højbjerg
77' Marseille Mason Greenwood 0.02 Open Play Left Foot Blocked Shot Pierre-Emile Højbjerg
78' Angers Farid El Melali 0.09 Open Play Right Foot Blocked Shot Himad Abdelli
80' Marseille Pierre-Emile Højbjerg 0.11 From Corner Missed Shot Jonathan Rowe
82' Marseille Pierre-Emile Højbjerg 0.09 From Corner Right Foot Missed Shot
86' Marseille Mason Greenwood 0.02 Open Play Left Foot Blocked Shot Pierre-Emile Højbjerg

Players

Marseille

PlayerMinGA ShKPxGxA xGChain
Pierre-Emile Højbjerg DMC 90 0 0 3 4 0.24 0.19 0.27
Mason Greenwood AMR 90 0 0 5 1 0.19 0.06 0.17
Amir Murillo DR 90 0 0 1 2 0.04 0.06 0.35
Leonardo Balerdi DC 90 0 0 1 0 0.02 0.00 0.18
Geoffrey Kondogbia DMC 90 0 0 0 0 0.00 0.00 0.24
Gerónimo Rulli GK 90 0 0 0 0 0.00 0.00 0.00
Ulisses García DL 87 0 0 2 0 0.12 0.00 0.23
Derek Cornelius DC 70 0 0 0 2 0.00 0.06 0.06
Luis Henrique AML 70 0 0 0 1 0.00 0.02 0.04
Valentín Carboni AMC 51 0 0 1 1 0.02 0.08 0.16
Jonathan Rowe Sub 39 1 0 2 1 0.20 0.11 0.20
Neal Maupay FW 29 0 0 1 0 0.06 0.00 0.00
Sepe Elye Wahi Sub 20 0 0 0 0 0.00 0.00 0.00
Adrien Rabiot Sub 20 0 0 0 0 0.00 0.00 0.15
Lilian Brassier Sub 3 0 0 0 0 0.00 0.00 0.02
Amine Harit Sub 1 0 0 0 0 0.00 0.00 0.00

Angers

PlayerMinGA ShKPxGxA xGChain
Farid El Melali AML 90 1 0 3 0 0.44 0.00 0.96
Jean Eudes Aholou DMC 90 0 0 4 1 0.16 0.28 0.32
Himad Abdelli AMC 90 0 0 2 1 0.04 0.09 0.70
Haris Belkebla DMC 90 0 0 0 1 0.00 0.01 0.04
Florent Hanin DL 90 0 0 0 1 0.00 0.03 0.03
Jordan Lefort DC 90 0 0 0 1 0.00 0.56 0.59
Yahia Fofana GK 90 0 0 0 0 0.00 0.00 0.00
Emmanuel Biumla DC 90 0 0 0 0 0.00 0.00 0.03
Ibrahima Niane FW 80 0 0 1 0 0.56 0.00 0.56
Zinedine Ferhat AMR 47 0 0 0 1 0.00 0.06 0.03
Carlens Arcus Sub 43 0 0 0 0 0.00 0.00 0.00
Lilian Raolisoa DR 25 0 0 0 0 0.00 0.00 0.00
Jim Allevinah Sub 10 0 0 0 0 0.00 0.00 0.09
Yassin Belkhdim Sub 1 0 0 0 0 0.00 0.00 0.00
Jacques Ekomie Sub 1 0 0 0 0 0.00 0.00 0.00
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Match

What this page is for

One fixture in full. The model's probability for every market it prices, the prices stored against them, the teams expected to feature, and for a match already played, the shot map and the xG timeline.

How to read the shot map

Every shot is placed where it was taken and sized by its chance of being scored. A cluster of small marks from distance and a clean sheet is a side that was busy without ever threatening; two big marks and a defeat is a side that had the better of it and lost anyway. Both happen constantly, and both are invisible in the score.

How to read the xG timeline

The steps are chances as they arrived, so the shape shows who was on top and when. A flat line that jumps once near the end is a smash and grab.

Things to watch

The stored prediction is the one made before the match, kept deliberately so it can be judged afterwards. It is not re-fitted with hindsight.

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