Marseille v Lorient — Prediction, Odds & Stats
Friday 12 September 2025 · FRA-Ligue 1 · 2526
Ligue 1
xG Prediction generated
Shots
15 – 4
On target
8 – 1
Shots in box
10 – 3
xG per shot
0.19 – 0.05
Set-piece xG
1.27 – 0.09
Goals − xG
+1.17 – -0.19
AI prediction
dc-xg-oos No snapshot has been taken for this fixture yet; this is the stored price.Marseille win
56.6%
Draw
20.9%
Lorient win
22.5%
Probabilities, not certainties. How they are made: the methodology.
Was this pick made in advance?
A model whose name ends
-oos is out of sample: it was fitted only on matches
played before this one, so its pick is a genuine forecast rather than hindsight.
Anything without that suffix was fitted on all available data.What the chances say
Marseille are finishing sharply below their chances — 8.2 goals fewer than expected across 10 matches, despite creating the openings.
LWLDLWWWLL last 10
scored 15
from 23.2 xG
conceded 15
from 16.6 xG
Lorient are conceding sharply fewer than expected — 4.2 goals saved beyond what the chances suggest.
DLWLDWLDLW last 10
scored 13
from 15.0 xG
conceded 12
from 16.2 xG
Finishing swings far more than chance creation, so a gap this size usually narrows. Over ten matches it is suggestive, not settled — a genuinely elite finisher beats expected goals for years.
What the model said
| Model | Home / Draw / Away | Expected goals | Likeliest score | O2.5 | BTTS | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| dc-xg-oos | 2.09–1.26 | 2-1 10% | 65% | 63% | Home ✓ |
A model whose name ends -oos was produced by the walk-forward backtest:
it was fitted only on matches played before this one, so the pick is genuinely out of sample.
Reading the xG timeline
Each step up is a shot; the height of the step is how good the chance was. Dots mark goals.
A side whose line climbs steadily created chances all match. A side that scored while its
line stayed flat took a rare chance — that is finishing luck, and it rarely repeats.
Expected goals by minute
Marseille 2.83 xGLorient 0.19 xG
Reading the shot map
Each circle is a shot, placed where it was taken. Bigger means a better chance;
filled circles are goals. Clusters near the goal mean a side worked good openings;
lots of small circles far out means shooting from poor positions and hoping.
Hover any circle for the player, minute and chance quality.
Shot map
Marseille attacking right
Lorient attacking left
Marker size is xG; filled markers are goals.
Every shot
| Min | Team | Player | xG | Situation | Body part | Result | Assisted by |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4' |
 Marseille |
Mason Greenwood | 0.06 | Open Play | Left Foot | Saved Shot | Amir Murillo |
| 5' |
Marseille |
Geoffrey Kondogbia | 0.04 | From Corner | — | Blocked Shot | Mason Greenwood |
| 12' |
Marseille |
Mason Greenwood | 0.76 | Right Foot | Goal | — | |
| 19' |
Marseille |
Benjamin Pavard | 0.32 | From Corner | — | Goal | Mason Greenwood |
| 19' |
Marseille |
Bilal Nadir | 0.05 | Open Play | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | Angel Gomes |
| 27' |
 Lorient |
Abdoulaye Faye | 0.02 | Set Piece | — | Blocked Shot | Jean-Victor Makengo |
| 27' |
Lorient |
Sambou Soumano | 0.07 | Set Piece | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | — |
| 32' |
Marseille |
Angel Gomes | 0.03 | From Corner | Right Foot | Goal | — |
| 47' |
Marseille |
Benjamin Pavard | 0.02 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Timothy Weah |
| 48' |
Marseille |
Timothy Weah | 0.46 | Open Play | — | Saved Shot | Angel Gomes |
| 51' |
Lorient |
Joel Mvuka | 0.09 | Open Play | Left Foot | Missed Shot | Jean-Victor Makengo |
| 51' |
Marseille |
Bilal Nadir | 0.03 | Open Play | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | Timothy Weah |
| 59' |
Marseille |
Mason Greenwood | 0.50 | Open Play | — | Saved Shot | Matt O'Riley |
| 60' |
Marseille |
Pierre-Emile Højbjerg | 0.09 | From Corner | — | Missed Shot | Angel Gomes |
| 71' |
Marseille |
Igor Paixão | 0.03 | Set Piece | — | Saved Shot | Mason Greenwood |
| 72' |
Lorient |
Théo Le Bris | 0.01 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | — |
| 75' |
Marseille |
Mason Greenwood | 0.40 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Pierre-Emile Højbjerg |
| 87' |
Marseille |
Pierre-Emile Højbjerg | 0.02 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Bilal Nadir |
| 92' |
Marseille |
Naif Aguerd | 0.02 | Open Play | Left Foot | Goal | Arthur Vermeeren |
Players
Marseille
| Player | Min | G | A | Sh | KP | xG | xA | xGChain |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mason Greenwood AMR | 90 | 1 | 1 | 4 | 3 | 1.72 | 0.40 | 1.05 |
| Bilal Nadir AMC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0.08 | 0.02 | 1.17 |
| Angel Gomes DMC | 90 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 0.03 | 0.59 | 1.05 |
| Naif Aguerd DC | 90 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.02 | 0.00 | 1.11 |
| Amir Murillo DR | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.06 | 1.08 |
| Jeffrey de Lange GK | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.02 |
| Benjamin Pavard DC | 84 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0.34 | 0.00 | 1.06 |
| Timothy Weah AML | 67 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0.46 | 0.05 | 1.01 |
| Geoffrey Kondogbia DMC | 67 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.04 | 0.00 | 0.98 |
| Facundo Medina DL | 67 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 1.12 |
| Matt O'Riley Sub | 47 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.50 | 0.57 |
| Amine Gouiri FW | 43 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.06 |
| Pierre-Emile Højbjerg Sub | 23 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0.11 | 0.40 | 0.44 |
| Igor Paixão Sub | 23 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.03 | 0.00 | 0.44 |
| Emerson Sub | 23 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.04 |
| Arthur Vermeeren Sub | 6 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.02 | 0.04 |
Lorient
| Player | Min | G | A | Sh | KP | xG | xA | xGChain |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Abdoulaye Faye DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.02 | 0.00 | 0.09 |
| Laurent Abergel MC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.09 |
| Montassar Talbi DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.09 |
| Bamo Meïté DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.09 |
| Yvon Mvogo GK | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Joel Mvuka DMR | 80 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.09 | 0.00 | 0.09 |
| Arsène Kouassi Sub | 77 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.09 |
| Sambou Soumano FW | 68 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.07 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Dermane Karim AMC | 68 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.09 |
| Jean-Victor Makengo AMC | 68 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0.00 | 0.11 | 0.09 |
| Théo Le Bris Sub | 22 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.01 | 0.00 | 0.01 |
| Arthur Avom Sub | 22 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Mohamed Bamba Sub | 22 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Noah Cadiou MC | 13 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Aiyegun Tosin Sub | 10 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Darline Yongwa DML | 9 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |