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Marseille v Lyon — Prediction, Odds & Stats

Sunday 2 February 2025 · FRA-Ligue 1 · 2425

Ligue 1 xG

3–2
3.62 – 1.84 xG
Shots
20 – 10
On target
11 – 4
Shots in box
14 – 8
xG per shot
0.18 – 0.19
Set-piece xG
0.90 – 0.91
Goals − xG
-0.66 – +0.13
Reading the xG timeline
Each step up is a shot; the height of the step is how good the chance was. Dots mark goals. A side whose line climbs steadily created chances all match. A side that scored while its line stayed flat took a rare chance — that is finishing luck, and it rarely repeats.

Expected goals by minute

0.01.02.13.14.10'15'30'45'60'75'90'Corentin Tolisso 52' — goalMason Greenwood 60' — goalAdrien Rabiot 63' — goalAlexandre Lacazette 71' — goalLuis Henrique 84' — goal
Marseille 3.66 xGLyon 1.87 xG
Reading the shot map
Each circle is a shot, placed where it was taken. Bigger means a better chance; filled circles are goals. Clusters near the goal mean a side worked good openings; lots of small circles far out means shooting from poor positions and hoping. Hover any circle for the player, minute and chance quality.

Shot map

Corentin Tolisso 0' — Blocked Shot (0.01 xG, Open Play)Quentin Merlin 10' — Missed Shot (0.05 xG, Open Play)Mason Greenwood 13' — Missed Shot (0.03 xG, Open Play)Valentin Rongier 17' — Missed Shot (0.02 xG, From Corner)Corentin Tolisso 21' — Missed Shot (0.10 xG, Set Piece)Amir Murillo 22' — Missed Shot (0.12 xG, Open Play)Bilal Nadir 25' — Saved Shot (0.10 xG, Open Play)Quentin Merlin 26' — Blocked Shot (0.04 xG, Open Play)Bilal Nadir 46' — Saved Shot (0.04 xG, Open Play)Adrien Rabiot 51' — Missed Shot (0.02 xG, Open Play)Corentin Tolisso 52' — Goal (0.31 xG, Open Play)Corentin Tolisso 54' — Saved Shot (0.36 xG, Open Play)Mathis Cherki 54' — Blocked Shot (0.09 xG, Open Play)Corentin Tolisso 55' — Missed Shot (0.06 xG, Open Play)Mason Greenwood 57' — Missed Shot (0.11 xG, Open Play)Ernest Nuamah 58' — Saved Shot (0.02 xG, Open Play)Amine Gouiri 60' — Missed Shot (0.06 xG, Open Play)Mason Greenwood 60' — Goal (0.70 xG, Open Play)Adrien Rabiot 63' — Goal (0.51 xG, Open Play)Amir Murillo 63' — Saved Shot (0.06 xG, Open Play)Nicolás Tagliafico 67' — Blocked Shot (0.05 xG, From Corner)Alexandre Lacazette 71' — Goal (0.76 xG, )Mathis Cherki 77' — Blocked Shot (0.10 xG, Open Play)Mason Greenwood 77' — Saved Shot (0.02 xG, Open Play)Leonardo Balerdi 79' — Missed Shot (0.06 xG, From Corner)Derek Cornelius 80' — Saved Shot (0.82 xG, From Corner)Amine Gouiri 83' — Saved Shot (0.28 xG, Open Play)Luis Henrique 84' — Goal (0.45 xG, Open Play)Amine Gouiri 91' — Saved Shot (0.10 xG, Open Play)Pierre-Emile Højbjerg 93' — Saved Shot (0.07 xG, Open Play)
Marseille attacking right Lyon attacking left Marker size is xG; filled markers are goals.

Every shot

MinTeamPlayerxG SituationBody partResultAssisted by
0' Lyon Corentin Tolisso 0.01 Open Play Right Foot Blocked Shot Lucas Perri
10' Marseille Quentin Merlin 0.05 Open Play Left Foot Missed Shot Bilal Nadir
13' Marseille Mason Greenwood 0.03 Open Play Left Foot Missed Shot
17' Marseille Valentin Rongier 0.02 From Corner Left Foot Missed Shot
21' Lyon Corentin Tolisso 0.10 Set Piece Missed Shot Mathis Cherki
22' Marseille Amir Murillo 0.12 Open Play Right Foot Missed Shot
25' Marseille Bilal Nadir 0.10 Open Play Left Foot Saved Shot Adrien Rabiot
26' Marseille Quentin Merlin 0.04 Open Play Left Foot Blocked Shot Pierre-Emile Højbjerg
46' Marseille Bilal Nadir 0.04 Open Play Left Foot Saved Shot Luis Henrique
51' Marseille Adrien Rabiot 0.02 Open Play Left Foot Missed Shot Luis Henrique
52' Lyon Corentin Tolisso 0.31 Open Play Right Foot Goal Mathis Cherki
54' Lyon Corentin Tolisso 0.36 Open Play Right Foot Saved Shot
54' Lyon Mathis Cherki 0.09 Open Play Left Foot Blocked Shot
55' Lyon Corentin Tolisso 0.06 Open Play Right Foot Missed Shot Sael Kumbedi
57' Marseille Mason Greenwood 0.11 Open Play Left Foot Missed Shot Adrien Rabiot
58' Lyon Ernest Nuamah 0.02 Open Play Left Foot Saved Shot Mathis Cherki
60' Marseille Amine Gouiri 0.06 Open Play Right Foot Missed Shot
60' Marseille Mason Greenwood 0.70 Open Play Right Foot Goal Amine Gouiri
63' Marseille Adrien Rabiot 0.51 Open Play Goal Pierre-Emile Højbjerg
63' Marseille Amir Murillo 0.06 Open Play Left Foot Saved Shot Quentin Merlin
67' Lyon Nicolás Tagliafico 0.05 From Corner Left Foot Blocked Shot
71' Lyon Alexandre Lacazette 0.76 Right Foot Goal
77' Lyon Mathis Cherki 0.10 Open Play Left Foot Blocked Shot Ernest Nuamah
77' Marseille Mason Greenwood 0.02 Open Play Left Foot Saved Shot Adrien Rabiot
79' Marseille Leonardo Balerdi 0.06 From Corner Missed Shot Amine Gouiri
80' Marseille Derek Cornelius 0.82 From Corner Right Foot Saved Shot Mason Greenwood
83' Marseille Amine Gouiri 0.29 Open Play Right Foot Saved Shot Adrien Rabiot
84' Marseille Luis Henrique 0.45 Open Play Right Foot Goal Pol Lirola
91' Marseille Amine Gouiri 0.10 Open Play Right Foot Saved Shot Luis Henrique
93' Marseille Pierre-Emile Højbjerg 0.07 Open Play Right Foot Saved Shot Amine Gouiri

Players

Marseille

PlayerMinGA ShKPxGxA xGChain
Mason Greenwood FW 90 1 0 4 1 0.87 0.82 1.94
Derek Cornelius DC 90 0 0 1 0 0.82 0.00 1.13
Adrien Rabiot AMC 90 1 0 2 4 0.53 0.52 1.09
Luis Henrique DMR 90 1 0 1 3 0.45 0.15 1.29
Amir Murillo DC 90 0 0 2 0 0.17 0.00 0.71
Pierre-Emile Højbjerg MC 90 0 1 1 2 0.07 0.56 1.35
Leonardo Balerdi DC 90 0 0 1 0 0.06 0.00 1.24
Valentin Rongier MC 90 0 0 1 0 0.02 0.00 0.84
Gerónimo Rulli GK 90 0 0 0 0 0.00 0.00 0.21
Quentin Merlin DML 80 0 0 2 1 0.09 0.06 0.27
Bilal Nadir AMC 58 0 0 2 1 0.14 0.05 0.23
Amine Gouiri Sub 32 0 1 3 3 0.44 0.84 1.28
Pol Lirola Sub 10 0 1 0 1 0.00 0.45 0.83
Ulisses García Sub 1 0 0 0 0 0.00 0.00 0.00

Lyon

PlayerMinGA ShKPxGxA xGChain
Corentin Tolisso AMC 90 1 0 5 0 0.85 0.00 0.85
Mathis Cherki AMR 90 0 1 2 3 0.19 0.44 0.58
Nicolás Tagliafico DL 90 0 0 1 0 0.05 0.00 0.02
Ernest Nuamah AML 90 0 0 1 1 0.02 0.10 0.49
Lucas Perri GK 90 0 0 0 1 0.00 0.01 0.01
Clinton Mata DC 90 0 0 0 0 0.00 0.00 0.33
Sael Kumbedi DR 90 0 0 0 1 0.00 0.06 0.09
Moussa Niakhate DC 90 0 0 0 0 0.00 0.00 0.31
Jordan Veretout DMC 86 0 0 0 0 0.00 0.00 0.06
Nemanja Matic DMC 86 0 0 0 0 0.00 0.00 0.68
Alexandre Lacazette FW 80 1 0 1 0 0.76 0.00 0.31
Georges Mikautadze Sub 10 0 0 0 0 0.00 0.00 0.00
Thiago Almada Sub 4 0 0 0 0 0.00 0.00 0.00
Tanner Tessmann Sub 4 0 0 0 0 0.00 0.00 0.00
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Match

What this page is for

One fixture in full. The model's probability for every market it prices, the prices stored against them, the teams expected to feature, and for a match already played, the shot map and the xG timeline.

How to read the shot map

Every shot is placed where it was taken and sized by its chance of being scored. A cluster of small marks from distance and a clean sheet is a side that was busy without ever threatening; two big marks and a defeat is a side that had the better of it and lost anyway. Both happen constantly, and both are invisible in the score.

How to read the xG timeline

The steps are chances as they arrived, so the shape shows who was on top and when. A flat line that jumps once near the end is a smash and grab.

Things to watch

The stored prediction is the one made before the match, kept deliberately so it can be judged afterwards. It is not re-fitted with hindsight.

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