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Marseille v Nice — Prediction, Odds & Stats

Saturday 14 September 2024 · FRA-Ligue 1 · 2425

Ligue 1 xG

2–0
1.03 – 1.72 xG
Shots
10 – 11
On target
5 – 4
Shots in box
5 – 9
xG per shot
0.10 – 0.16
Set-piece xG
0.29 – 0.68
Goals − xG
+0.97 – -1.75
Reading the xG timeline
Each step up is a shot; the height of the step is how good the chance was. Dots mark goals. A side whose line climbs steadily created chances all match. A side that scored while its line stayed flat took a rare chance — that is finishing luck, and it rarely repeats.

Expected goals by minute

0.00.51.01.52.00'15'30'45'60'75'90'Neal Maupay 39' — goalLuis Henrique 52' — goal
Marseille 1.03 xGNice 1.75 xG
Reading the shot map
Each circle is a shot, placed where it was taken. Bigger means a better chance; filled circles are goals. Clusters near the goal mean a side worked good openings; lots of small circles far out means shooting from poor positions and hoping. Hover any circle for the player, minute and chance quality.

Shot map

Luis Henrique 3' — Saved Shot (0.10 xG, Open Play)Evann Guessand 11' — Blocked Shot (0.07 xG, Open Play)Tanguy NDombele Alvaro 19' — Missed Shot (0.03 xG, Set Piece)Amir Murillo 21' — Blocked Shot (0.02 xG, Open Play)Evann Guessand 24' — Blocked Shot (0.03 xG, Open Play)Mason Greenwood 29' — Missed Shot (0.02 xG, Open Play)Melvin Bard 36' — Shot On Post (0.02 xG, Open Play)Neal Maupay 39' — Goal (0.29 xG, From Corner)Mason Greenwood 45' — Missed Shot (0.06 xG, Open Play)Jeremie Boga 48' — Saved Shot (0.05 xG, Direct Freekick)Pablo Rosario 48' — Saved Shot (0.59 xG, Set Piece)Luis Henrique 52' — Goal (0.05 xG, Open Play)Neal Maupay 56' — Blocked Shot (0.11 xG, Open Play)Jeremie Boga 61' — Saved Shot (0.05 xG, Open Play)Amine Harit 69' — Saved Shot (0.03 xG, Open Play)Ali Abdi 77' — Missed Shot (0.27 xG, Open Play)Youssoufa Moukoko 77' — Missed Shot (0.38 xG, Open Play)Evann Guessand 88' — Saved Shot (0.24 xG, Open Play)Tom Louchet 90' — Blocked Shot (0.01 xG, Set Piece)Jonathan Rowe 94' — Saved Shot (0.04 xG, Open Play)Jonathan Rowe 95' — Missed Shot (0.30 xG, Open Play)
Marseille attacking right Nice attacking left Marker size is xG; filled markers are goals.

Every shot

MinTeamPlayerxG SituationBody partResultAssisted by
3' Marseille Luis Henrique 0.10 Open Play Left Foot Saved Shot Neal Maupay
11' Nice Evann Guessand 0.07 Open Play Right Foot Blocked Shot
19' Nice Tanguy NDombele Alvaro 0.03 Set Piece Right Foot Missed Shot Pablo Rosario
21' Marseille Amir Murillo 0.02 Open Play Right Foot Blocked Shot Amine Harit
24' Nice Evann Guessand 0.03 Open Play Right Foot Blocked Shot Jeremie Boga
29' Marseille Mason Greenwood 0.02 Open Play Right Foot Missed Shot Amir Murillo
36' Nice Melvin Bard 0.02 Open Play Left Foot Shot On Post Mohamed Ali-Cho
39' Marseille Neal Maupay 0.29 From Corner Goal
45' Marseille Mason Greenwood 0.06 Open Play Left Foot Missed Shot Amir Murillo
48' Nice Jeremie Boga 0.05 Direct Freekick Right Foot Saved Shot
48' Nice Pablo Rosario 0.59 Set Piece Left Foot Saved Shot
52' Marseille Luis Henrique 0.05 Open Play Right Foot Goal Amine Harit
56' Marseille Neal Maupay 0.11 Open Play Left Foot Blocked Shot Amir Murillo
61' Nice Jeremie Boga 0.05 Open Play Left Foot Saved Shot Tanguy NDombele Alvaro
69' Marseille Amine Harit 0.03 Open Play Right Foot Saved Shot Luis Henrique
77' Nice Ali Abdi 0.27 Open Play Left Foot Missed Shot Jonathan Clauss
77' Nice Youssoufa Moukoko 0.38 Open Play Left Foot Missed Shot Ali Abdi
88' Nice Evann Guessand 0.24 Open Play Right Foot Saved Shot
90' Nice Tom Louchet 0.01 Set Piece Blocked Shot Jonathan Clauss
94' Marseille Jonathan Rowe 0.04 Open Play Right Foot Saved Shot
95' Marseille Jonathan Rowe 0.30 Open Play Left Foot Missed Shot Ismaël Koné

Players

Marseille

PlayerMinGA ShKPxGxA xGChain
Mason Greenwood AMR 90 0 0 2 0 0.08 0.00 0.08
Amir Murillo DL 90 0 0 1 3 0.02 0.19 0.54
Pierre-Emile Højbjerg DMC 90 0 0 0 0 0.00 0.00 0.43
Lilian Brassier DC 90 0 0 0 0 0.00 0.00 0.16
Gerónimo Rulli GK 90 0 0 0 0 0.00 0.00 0.11
Geoffrey Kondogbia DMC 90 0 0 0 0 0.00 0.00 0.08
Luis Henrique AML 84 1 0 2 1 0.15 0.03 0.18
Derek Cornelius DC 76 0 0 0 0 0.00 0.00 0.09
Valentin Rongier DR 75 0 0 0 0 0.00 0.00 0.14
Neal Maupay FW 74 1 0 2 1 0.40 0.10 0.29
Amine Harit AMC 74 0 1 1 2 0.03 0.07 0.21
Jonathan Rowe Sub 16 0 0 2 0 0.35 0.00 0.35
Ismaël Koné Sub 16 0 0 0 1 0.00 0.30 0.30
Pol Lirola Sub 15 0 0 0 0 0.00 0.00 0.00
Ulisses García Sub 6 0 0 0 0 0.00 0.00 0.00
Bamo Meïté Sub 1 0 0 0 0 0.00 0.00 0.30

Nice

PlayerMinGA ShKPxGxA xGChain
Evann Guessand FW 90 0 0 3 0 0.34 0.00 0.34
Melvin Bard DML 90 0 0 1 0 0.02 0.00 0.33
Youssouf Ndayishimiye DC 90 0 0 0 0 0.00 0.00 0.30
Mohamed Abdelmonem DC 90 0 0 0 0 0.00 0.00 0.02
Jonathan Clauss DMR 90 0 0 0 2 0.00 0.28 0.30
Marcin Bulka GK 90 0 0 0 0 0.00 0.00 0.02
Tanguy NDombele Alvaro MC 89 0 0 1 1 0.03 0.05 0.05
Pablo Rosario MC 81 0 0 1 1 0.59 0.03 0.00
Jeremie Boga FWL 71 0 0 2 1 0.10 0.03 0.08
Dante DC 71 0 0 0 0 0.00 0.00 0.05
Mohamed Ali-Cho FWR 71 0 0 0 1 0.00 0.02 0.02
Youssoufa Moukoko Sub 19 0 0 1 0 0.38 0.00 0.38
Ali Abdi Sub 19 0 0 1 1 0.27 0.38 0.65
Badredine Bouanani Sub 19 0 0 0 0 0.00 0.00 0.00
Tom Louchet Sub 9 0 0 1 0 0.01 0.00 0.00
Sofiane Diop Sub 1 0 0 0 0 0.00 0.00 0.00
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Match

What this page is for

One fixture in full. The model's probability for every market it prices, the prices stored against them, the teams expected to feature, and for a match already played, the shot map and the xG timeline.

How to read the shot map

Every shot is placed where it was taken and sized by its chance of being scored. A cluster of small marks from distance and a clean sheet is a side that was busy without ever threatening; two big marks and a defeat is a side that had the better of it and lost anyway. Both happen constantly, and both are invisible in the score.

How to read the xG timeline

The steps are chances as they arrived, so the shape shows who was on top and when. A flat line that jumps once near the end is a smash and grab.

Things to watch

The stored prediction is the one made before the match, kept deliberately so it can be judged afterwards. It is not re-fitted with hindsight.

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