Melgar v Deportivo Garcilaso — Prediction, Odds & Stats

Saturday 17 October 2026 · PER-Liga 1 · 2627

PER-Liga 1 results-only Prediction generated 6 Sep 2026, 02:06

Melgar

14:00

Deportivo Garcilaso

AI prediction

ai-blend v1.0 daily Priced 5 Sep, 22:23 · 1,004h before kick-off

Melgar win

46.5%

model 48.4%

Draw

26.8%

model 26.1%

Deportivo Garcilaso win

26.8%

model 25.5%

462727

Calibrated: the model's number corrected by how often calls at that confidence have landed, out of sample (3,799 settled matches in the thinnest band), then normalised. The smaller figure is the raw model output.

Top 5 scorelines

1-0 13.3%
1-1 12.3%
2-0 9.4%
2-1 9.0%
0-1 9.0%

Goals

Over 2.5	43.2%	Under 2.5	56.8%
BTTS yes	47.0%	BTTS no	53.0%
Melgar 1+	76.3%	Melgar 2+	42.2%
Deportivo Garcilaso 1+	61.9%	Deportivo Garcilaso 2+	25.1%

Expected goals 1.44 – 0.96. Every market above is read off one scoreline distribution.

Footing

AI confidence

78/100

Data quality

65/100

Model agreement

97%

★ Best pick

Nothing on a measured band prices above 1.18 here.

★ Most likely to land

Nothing on a measured band prices above 1.18 here.

Positive factors

Nothing in the data singles out Melgar.

Risk factors

No specific risk flags beyond the usual variance of a football match.

Why the model thinks this

The price

Melgar have an estimated 46.5% win probability, against 26.8% for the draw and 26.8% for Deportivo Garcilaso. Expected goals from the ensemble are 1.44 for Melgar and 0.96 for Deportivo Garcilaso.

Why Melgar

Nothing in the data singles out Melgar.

Why the draw is live

The draw sits at 26.8%. Draws run at 25% in this competition.

Why Deportivo Garcilaso can win

Deportivo Garcilaso carry the stronger rating, 1610 Elo against 1580. Form is good: 2.60 points a match from the last five.

Key players

No player-level data for this fixture; the leagues with lineups are the big five.

Availability

No lineup on record for Melgar, so availability is unknown. No lineup on record for Deportivo Garcilaso, so availability is unknown.

The matchup, as far as the data reaches

Melgar: 59% possession, 14.0 shots a match, 14.2 faced, 0.30 xG a match from set pieces. Deportivo Garcilaso: 42% possession, 11.2 shots a match, 15.0 faced, 0.30 xG a match from set pieces.

Inputs last refreshed: matches 2026-09-05 22:20 · team_stats 2026-09-05 09:41 · availability 2026-09-05 21:03 · prediction 2026-09-05 18:39 ·

Melgar are the model's most likely outcome at 46.5%. The likeliest scoreline is 1-0 at 13.3%. Confidence 78/100, data quality 65/100. These are probabilities, not certainties: the less likely outcome happens as often as its number says.

Written from the numbers the model saw, not by a language model; nothing here is a statistic the snapshot does not hold. How predictions work.

Was this pick made in advance?

A model whose name ends -oos is out of sample: it was fitted only on matches played before this one, so its pick is a genuine forecast rather than hindsight. Anything without that suffix was fitted on all available data.

What the model said

Model	Home / Draw / Away	Expected goals	Likeliest score	O2.5	BTTS
dc-xg	462826	1.26–0.87	1-0 15%	36%	41%

A model whose name ends -oos was produced by the walk-forward backtest: it was fitted only on matches played before this one, so the pick is genuinely out of sample.

Using this section

Every selection the model prices for this fixture, grouped by family — click a heading to open it. Calibrated is the number to read; lift shows how far it sits from what that selection normally does in this league. To compare selections across fixtures instead, use the Radar.

All markets

Every selection below comes from the same scoreline distribution, so they are mutually consistent rather than independently guessed. Calibrated is the model corrected by its own out-of-sample record; lift is how much more likely that is than the selection simply being true in this league anyway.

1X2 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Melgar to win	45.5%	47.4%	50.0%	0.95×	2.11
Draw	28.4%	27.9%	25.1%	1.11×	3.59
Deportivo Garcilaso to win	26.0%	27.9%	25.1%	1.11×	3.59

1X2 & GG/NG 6

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Melgar & not both score	30.2%	29.7%	26.5%	1.12×	3.37
Draw & both teams score	16.8%	17.9%	17.5%	1.03×	5.58
Deportivo Garcilaso & not both score	16.8%	17.9%	12.2%	1.47×	5.58
Melgar & both teams score	15.4%	17.9%	23.6%	0.76×	5.59
Draw & not both score	11.6%	13.3%	7.8%	1.70×	7.54
Deportivo Garcilaso & both teams score	9.2%	8.4%	13.1%	0.64×	11.92

1X2 & Over/Under 18

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Melgar & under 3.5	36.7%	34.9%	33.8%	1.03×	2.86
Melgar & over 1.5	30.3%	30.8%	38.2%	0.81×	3.24
Melgar & under 2.5	24.6%	21.6%	19.3%	1.12×	4.62
Draw & under 2.5	24.4%	21.6%	18.9%	1.14×	4.62
Draw & under 3.5	24.4%	21.6%	18.9%	1.14×	4.62
Deportivo Garcilaso & under 3.5	22.2%	21.6%	19.1%	1.13×	4.62
Melgar & over 2.5	20.9%	21.6%	30.9%	0.70×	4.62
Draw & over 1.5	16.8%	18.0%	17.5%	1.03×	5.56
Deportivo Garcilaso & over 1.5	15.4%	18.0%	17.3%	1.04×	5.56
Melgar & under 1.5	15.2%	18.0%	12.0%	1.50×	5.56
Deportivo Garcilaso & under 2.5	15.2%	18.0%	10.9%	1.65×	5.56
Draw & under 1.5	11.6%	12.9%	7.8%	1.65×	7.77
Deportivo Garcilaso & under 1.5	10.6%	12.9%	8.0%	1.61×	7.77
Deportivo Garcilaso & over 2.5	10.9%	12.9%	14.4%	0.90×	7.77
Melgar & over 3.5	8.8%	7.9%	16.4%	0.48×	12.70
Draw & over 2.5	4.0%	4.8%	6.4%	0.75×	20.93
Draw & over 3.5	4.0%	4.8%	6.4%	0.75×	20.93
Deportivo Garcilaso & over 3.5	3.9%	4.8%	6.2%	0.77×	20.93

1X2 1UP 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Melgar (1UP)	57.8%	58.2%	—	—	1.72
Deportivo Garcilaso (1UP)	40.1%	38.9%	—	—	2.57

1X2 2UP 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Melgar (2UP)	45.5%	49.5%	—	—	2.02
Deportivo Garcilaso (2UP)	26.0%	24.9%	—	—	4.01

2nd half 1X2 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
2nd half drawn	40.6%	41.1%	—	—	2.43
Melgar to win 2nd half	35.7%	36.2%	—	—	2.76
Deportivo Garcilaso to win 2nd half	23.6%	23.0%	—	—	4.34

Asian handicap 8

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Deportivo Garcilaso (+2.5)	92.9%	92.1%	88.5%	1.04×	1.09
Deportivo Garcilaso (+1.5)	79.5%	78.5%	75.3%	1.04×	1.27
Melgar (+0.5)	74.0%	73.7%	74.9%	0.98×	1.36
Deportivo Garcilaso (+0.5)	54.5%	52.4%	50.0%	1.05×	1.91
Melgar (-0.5)	45.5%	47.6%	50.0%	0.95×	2.10
Deportivo Garcilaso (-0.5)	26.0%	26.3%	25.1%	1.05×	3.80
Melgar (-1.5)	20.5%	21.5%	24.7%	0.87×	4.65
Melgar (-2.5)	7.1%	7.9%	11.5%	0.69×	12.65

Away clean sheet 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Deportivo Garcilaso to concede	71.6%	76.5%	80.2%	0.95×	1.31
Deportivo Garcilaso clean sheet	28.4%	23.5%	19.8%	1.19×	4.25

Away clean sheet 1HT 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Deportivo Garcilaso clean sheet in 1st half	58.2%	57.9%	—	—	1.73
Deportivo Garcilaso to concede in 1st half	41.8%	42.1%	—	—	2.38

Away corners O/U 10

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Deportivo Garcilaso under 6.5 corners	96.3%	95.6%	—	—	1.05
Deportivo Garcilaso under 5.5 corners	92.0%	90.1%	—	—	1.11
Deportivo Garcilaso under 4.5 corners	84.0%	81.5%	—	—	1.23
Deportivo Garcilaso under 3.5 corners	70.7%	71.5%	—	—	1.40
Deportivo Garcilaso under 2.5 corners	51.5%	53.1%	—	—	1.88
Deportivo Garcilaso over 2.5 corners	48.5%	46.9%	—	—	2.13
Deportivo Garcilaso over 3.5 corners	29.3%	28.5%	—	—	3.51
Deportivo Garcilaso over 4.5 corners	16.0%	18.5%	—	—	5.39
Deportivo Garcilaso over 5.5 corners	8.0%	9.9%	—	—	10.06
Deportivo Garcilaso over 6.5 corners	3.7%	4.4%	—	—	22.78

Away goals O/U 8

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Deportivo Garcilaso under 3.5 goals	98.8%	97.6%	97.5%	1.00×	1.03
Deportivo Garcilaso under 2.5 goals	94.2%	92.4%	92.0%	1.00×	1.08
Deportivo Garcilaso under 1.5 goals	78.2%	76.2%	71.6%	1.06×	1.31
Deportivo Garcilaso over 0.5 goals	58.2%	59.6%	65.8%	0.91×	1.68
Deportivo Garcilaso under 0.5 goals	41.8%	40.4%	34.2%	1.18×	2.47
Deportivo Garcilaso over 1.5 goals	21.8%	23.8%	28.4%	0.84×	4.21
Deportivo Garcilaso over 2.5 goals	5.8%	7.6%	8.0%	0.96×	13.08
Deportivo Garcilaso over 3.5 goals	1.2%	2.4%	2.5%	0.96×	40.92

Away goals O/U 1HT 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Deportivo Garcilaso under 1.5 in 1st half	95.2%	95.5%	—	—	1.05
Deportivo Garcilaso under 0.5 in 1st half	70.5%	68.3%	—	—	1.47
Deportivo Garcilaso over 0.5 in 1st half	29.5%	31.7%	—	—	3.15
Deportivo Garcilaso over 1.5 in 1st half	4.8%	4.5%	—	—	22.45

Away no bet 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Melgar (away no bet)	61.6%	62.1%	66.6%	0.93×	1.61
Draw (away no bet)	38.4%	37.9%	33.4%	1.13×	2.64

Away Odd/Even 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Deportivo Garcilaso even goals	58.7%	56.9%	56.9%	1.00×	1.76
Deportivo Garcilaso odd goals	41.3%	43.1%	43.1%	1.00×	2.32

Both halves O1.5 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Not both halves over 1.5	92.1%	92.4%	—	—	1.08
Both halves over 1.5 goals	7.9%	7.6%	—	—	13.15

Both halves U1.5 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Not both halves under 1.5	49.6%	50.2%	—	—	1.99
Both halves under 1.5 goals	50.4%	49.8%	—	—	2.01

Consecutive goals 6

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Either team to score 2+ in a row	43.7%	38.4%	—	—	2.61
Melgar to score 2+ in a row	30.2%	28.7%	—	—	3.49
Deportivo Garcilaso to score 2+ in a row	16.5%	16.4%	—	—	6.10
Either team to score 3+ in a row	13.0%	12.1%	—	—	8.25
Melgar to score 3+ in a row	9.6%	5.7%	—	—	17.58
Deportivo Garcilaso to score 3+ in a row	3.5%	2.6%	—	—	38.25

Corner handicap 12

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Melgar corners (+3.5)	98.2%	95.8%	—	—	1.04
Melgar corners (+2.5)	96.3%	95.8%	—	—	1.04
Melgar corners (+1.5)	93.1%	89.6%	—	—	1.12
Melgar corners (-1.5)	71.5%	70.7%	—	—	1.41
Melgar corners (-2.5)	60.8%	61.9%	—	—	1.62
Deportivo Garcilaso corners (+3.5)	50.3%	52.5%	—	—	1.91
Melgar corners (-3.5)	49.7%	47.5%	—	—	2.10
Deportivo Garcilaso corners (+2.5)	39.2%	38.1%	—	—	2.63
Deportivo Garcilaso corners (+1.5)	28.5%	29.3%	—	—	3.41
Deportivo Garcilaso corners (-1.5)	6.9%	10.4%	—	—	9.58
Deportivo Garcilaso corners (-2.5)	3.7%	4.2%	—	—	23.55
Deportivo Garcilaso corners (-3.5)	1.8%	4.2%	—	—	23.60

Corner range 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
0-8 corners	47.3%	41.7%	—	—	2.40
9-11 corners	28.3%	31.2%	—	—	3.20
12+ corners	24.4%	25.6%	—	—	3.90

Corners O/U 12

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Under 12.5 corners	82.3%	80.8%	—	—	1.24
Under 11.5 corners	75.6%	76.5%	—	—	1.31
Under 10.5 corners	67.4%	67.7%	—	—	1.48
Over 7.5 corners	63.6%	63.4%	—	—	1.58
Under 9.5 corners	57.8%	57.7%	—	—	1.73
Over 8.5 corners	52.7%	53.3%	—	—	1.88
Under 8.5 corners	47.3%	46.7%	—	—	2.14
Over 9.5 corners	42.2%	42.3%	—	—	2.37
Under 7.5 corners	36.4%	36.6%	—	—	2.73
Over 10.5 corners	32.6%	32.3%	—	—	3.09
Over 11.5 corners	24.4%	23.5%	—	—	4.25
Over 12.5 corners	17.7%	19.2%	—	—	5.20

Corners Odd/Even 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Odd number of corners	50.0%	50.2%	—	—	1.99
Even number of corners	50.0%	49.9%	—	—	2.01

Correct score 26

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
1-0	15.2%	13.7%	12.0%	1.15×	7.28
1-1	12.8%	11.4%	11.3%	1.02×	8.73
0-0	11.6%	11.4%	7.8%	1.46×	8.74
0-1	10.6%	11.4%	8.0%	1.43×	8.74
2-0	9.4%	7.4%	7.5%	1.00×	13.47
2-1	8.2%	7.4%	9.8%	0.76×	13.47
1-2	5.7%	7.4%	7.5%	1.00×	13.47
0-2	4.5%	1.7%	3.1%	0.55×	58.50
0-3	1.3%	1.7%	1.1%	1.57×	58.52
0-4	0.3%	1.7%	0.5%	3.13×	58.52
1-3	1.7%	1.7%	2.0%	0.85×	58.51
1-4	0.4%	1.7%	0.9%	1.88×	58.52
2-2	3.6%	1.7%	5.6%	0.30×	58.50
2-3	1.0%	1.7%	2.0%	0.85×	58.52
2-4	0.2%	1.7%	0.9%	1.88×	58.52
3-0	3.9%	1.7%	5.1%	0.34×	58.50
3-1	3.4%	1.7%	5.3%	0.32×	58.50
3-2	1.5%	1.7%	3.8%	0.45×	58.52
3-3	0.4%	1.7%	0.9%	1.88×	58.52
3-4	0.1%	1.7%	0.7%	2.35×	58.52
4-0	1.2%	1.7%	1.6%	1.04×	58.52
4-1	1.1%	1.7%	2.5%	0.67×	58.52
4-2	0.5%	1.7%	1.1%	1.57×	58.52
4-3	0.1%	1.7%	0.4%	4.70×	58.52
4-4	0.0%	1.7%	0.2%	9.40×	58.52
Any other score	1.1%	1.7%	2.7%	0.63×	58.52

DNB half time 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Melgar leading at HT (DNB)	63.1%	66.0%	—	—	1.51
Deportivo Garcilaso leading at HT (DNB)	36.9%	34.0%	—	—	2.94

Double chance 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Melgar or draw (1X)	74.0%	72.2%	74.9%	0.96×	1.39
Melgar or Deportivo Garcilaso (12)	71.6%	72.1%	74.9%	0.96×	1.39
Deportivo Garcilaso or draw (X2)	54.5%	52.6%	50.0%	1.05×	1.90

Double chance 1HT 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Melgar or draw at HT	81.2%	84.3%	—	—	1.19
Deportivo Garcilaso or draw at HT	67.9%	66.4%	—	—	1.51
Melgar or Deportivo Garcilaso at HT	50.9%	47.5%	—	—	2.11

Double chance 1UP 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Melgar or draw (1UP)	74.0%	80.1%	—	—	1.25
Deportivo Garcilaso or draw (1UP)	54.5%	59.4%	—	—	1.68

Double chance 2HT 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Melgar or draw in 2nd half	76.4%	77.0%	—	—	1.30
Deportivo Garcilaso or draw in 2nd half	64.3%	63.8%	—	—	1.57
Melgar or Deportivo Garcilaso in 2nd half	59.4%	58.9%	—	—	1.70

Draw either half 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
A half drawn	70.1%	69.6%	—	—	1.44
Neither half drawn	29.9%	30.4%	—	—	3.29

Draw no bet 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Melgar (DNB)	63.6%	62.8%	66.6%	0.94×	1.59
Deportivo Garcilaso (DNB)	36.4%	37.2%	33.4%	1.11×	2.69

First goal 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Melgar to score first	52.2%	53.8%	—	—	1.86
Deportivo Garcilaso to score first	36.2%	32.6%	—	—	3.06
No goal scored	11.6%	9.9%	—	—	10.11

GG/NG 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Not both teams to score	58.6%	54.9%	46.2%	1.19×	1.82
Both teams to score	41.4%	45.1%	53.8%	0.84×	2.22

GG/NG & Over/Under 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Not both score & under 2.5	51.4%	47.0%	37.6%	1.25×	2.13
Both score & over 2.5	28.6%	33.6%	42.7%	0.79×	2.97
Both score & under 2.5	12.8%	12.3%	11.3%	1.09×	8.12
Not both score & over 2.5	7.2%	8.4%	8.7%	0.96×	11.96

GG/NG 2+ 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Not both teams to score 2+	92.2%	89.1%	85.6%	1.04×	1.12
Both teams to score 2+	7.8%	10.9%	14.4%	0.76×	9.18

GG/NG 2nd half 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Not both to score in 2nd half	79.2%	75.9%	—	—	1.32
Both teams to score in 2nd half	20.8%	24.1%	—	—	4.14

GG/NG by half 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Neither half both score	69.5%	63.0%	—	—	1.59
Both score 2nd half only	18.2%	15.8%	—	—	6.32
Both score 1st half only	9.7%	6.8%	—	—	14.66
Both score in both halves	2.6%	4.9%	—	—	20.59

GG/NG half time 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Not both to score by HT	87.7%	85.9%	—	—	1.16
Both teams to score by HT	12.3%	14.1%	—	—	7.10

Goal in both halves 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
A half without a goal	58.2%	57.5%	—	—	1.74
A goal in each half	41.8%	42.5%	—	—	2.35

Goal range 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
2-3 goals	45.8%	47.4%	44.2%	1.07×	2.11
0-1 goals	37.4%	35.1%	27.5%	1.28×	2.85
4-6 goals	16.1%	20.2%	26.9%	0.75×	4.96
7+ goals	0.6%	1.8%	1.8%	1.00×	55.19

Goals away 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Deportivo Garcilaso to score exactly 0	41.8%	37.0%	34.2%	1.08×	2.70
Deportivo Garcilaso to score exactly 1	36.5%	36.0%	37.6%	0.96×	2.78
Deportivo Garcilaso to score exactly 2	15.9%	19.5%	20.5%	0.95×	5.12
Deportivo Garcilaso to score 3+	5.8%	8.5%	8.0%	1.06×	11.83

Goals home 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Melgar to score exactly 1	35.8%	35.6%	32.9%	1.08×	2.81
Melgar to score exactly 0	28.4%	26.5%	19.8%	1.34×	3.77
Melgar to score exactly 2	22.5%	23.3%	25.1%	0.93×	4.30
Melgar to score 3+	13.3%	14.3%	22.5%	0.64×	6.97

Half time 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Draw at HT	49.1%	52.5%	—	—	1.91
Melgar leading at HT	32.1%	33.6%	—	—	2.97
Deportivo Garcilaso leading at HT	18.8%	15.7%	—	—	6.36

Handicap 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Melgar -1: 2	54.5%	52.1%	—	—	1.92
Melgar -1: X	25.1%	26.5%	—	—	3.77
Melgar -1: 1	20.5%	23.6%	—	—	4.24

Handicap 0:1 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Deportivo Garcilaso (0:1)	54.5%	51.2%	50.0%	1.02×	1.95
Draw (0:1)	25.1%	27.0%	25.5%	1.06×	3.70
Melgar (0:1)	20.5%	24.3%	24.7%	0.98×	4.12

Handicap 0:2 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Deportivo Garcilaso (0:2)	79.5%	79.5%	75.3%	1.06×	1.26
Draw (0:2)	13.3%	11.0%	13.5%	0.82×	9.10
Melgar (0:2)	7.1%	7.7%	11.5%	0.67×	12.96

Handicap 0:3 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Deportivo Garcilaso (0:3)	92.9%	92.6%	88.5%	1.05×	1.08
Draw (0:3)	5.1%	5.8%	7.6%	0.76×	17.22
Melgar (0:3)	2.0%	2.4%	4.0%	0.59×	42.12

Handicap 0:4 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Deportivo Garcilaso (0:4)	98.0%	98.1%	96.0%	1.02×	1.02
Draw (0:4)	1.5%	1.2%	2.5%	0.47×	83.43
Melgar (0:4)	0.5%	1.2%	1.6%	0.73×	83.56

Handicap 1:0 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Melgar (1:0)	74.0%	72.6%	74.9%	0.97×	1.38
Draw (1:0)	17.5%	17.0%	17.6%	0.97×	5.87
Deportivo Garcilaso (1:0)	8.6%	6.9%	7.6%	0.91×	14.45

Handicap 2:0 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Melgar (2:0)	91.4%	93.9%	92.4%	1.02×	1.06
Draw (2:0)	6.4%	6.4%	5.6%	1.14×	15.54
Deportivo Garcilaso (2:0)	2.1%	2.3%	2.2%	1.03×	44.37

Highest scoring half 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
2nd half highest scoring	44.6%	47.9%	—	—	2.09
Halves equal	28.7%	26.5%	—	—	3.77
1st half highest scoring	26.7%	26.5%	—	—	3.77

Home clean sheet 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Melgar to concede	58.2%	61.0%	65.8%	0.93×	1.64
Melgar clean sheet	41.8%	39.1%	34.2%	1.14×	2.56

Home clean sheet 1HT 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Melgar clean sheet in 1st half	70.5%	67.9%	—	—	1.47
Melgar to concede in 1st half	29.5%	32.1%	—	—	3.11

Home corners O/U 10

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Melgar over 2.5 corners	90.3%	89.3%	—	—	1.12
Melgar over 3.5 corners	81.0%	80.9%	—	—	1.24
Melgar over 4.5 corners	69.3%	66.7%	—	—	1.50
Melgar over 5.5 corners	56.5%	57.5%	—	—	1.74
Melgar under 6.5 corners	55.9%	57.5%	—	—	1.74
Melgar over 6.5 corners	44.1%	42.5%	—	—	2.35
Melgar under 5.5 corners	43.5%	42.5%	—	—	2.35
Melgar under 4.5 corners	30.7%	33.3%	—	—	3.00
Melgar under 3.5 corners	19.0%	19.1%	—	—	5.25
Melgar under 2.5 corners	9.7%	10.7%	—	—	9.35

Home goals O/U 8

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Melgar under 3.5 goals	96.1%	96.4%	92.4%	1.04×	1.04
Melgar under 2.5 goals	86.7%	87.2%	77.5%	1.13×	1.15
Melgar over 0.5 goals	71.6%	74.2%	80.2%	0.93×	1.35
Melgar under 1.5 goals	64.2%	63.5%	52.5%	1.21×	1.58
Melgar over 1.5 goals	35.8%	36.5%	47.5%	0.77×	2.74
Melgar under 0.5 goals	28.4%	25.8%	19.8%	1.30×	3.88
Melgar over 2.5 goals	13.3%	12.8%	22.5%	0.57×	7.84
Melgar over 3.5 goals	3.9%	3.6%	7.6%	0.48×	27.41

Home goals O/U 1HT 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Melgar under 1.5 in 1st half	89.7%	90.0%	—	—	1.11
Melgar under 0.5 in 1st half	58.2%	57.5%	—	—	1.74
Melgar over 0.5 in 1st half	41.8%	42.5%	—	—	2.35
Melgar over 1.5 in 1st half	10.3%	10.0%	—	—	10.02

Home no bet 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Draw (home no bet)	52.2%	51.6%	50.0%	1.03×	1.94
Deportivo Garcilaso (home no bet)	47.8%	48.4%	50.0%	0.97×	2.07

Home Odd/Even 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Melgar even goals	54.0%	50.6%	50.5%	1.00×	1.98
Melgar odd goals	46.0%	49.4%	49.5%	1.00×	2.03

HT correct score 10

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
HT 0-0	41.0%	41.2%	—	—	2.43
HT 1-0	22.3%	24.2%	—	—	4.13
HT 0-1	14.4%	11.0%	—	—	9.09
HT 1-1	7.7%	7.1%	—	—	14.17
HT 2-0	6.0%	7.0%	—	—	14.19
HT 0-2	2.5%	2.3%	—	—	43.88
Any other HT score	2.3%	2.3%	—	—	43.90
HT 2-1	2.1%	2.3%	—	—	43.91
HT 1-2	1.4%	2.3%	—	—	43.97
HT 2-2	0.4%	2.3%	—	—	44.04

HT/FT 9

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Melgar at HT / Melgar at FT	26.1%	26.6%	—	—	3.76
Draw at HT / Draw at FT	19.7%	16.9%	—	—	5.93
Draw at HT / Melgar at FT	17.7%	16.8%	—	—	5.94
Deportivo Garcilaso at HT / Deportivo Garcilaso at FT	12.9%	12.7%	—	—	7.90
Draw at HT / Deportivo Garcilaso at FT	11.7%	12.7%	—	—	7.90
Melgar at HT / Draw at FT	4.7%	3.5%	—	—	28.81
Deportivo Garcilaso at HT / Draw at FT	4.1%	3.5%	—	—	28.83
Deportivo Garcilaso at HT / Melgar at FT	1.8%	3.5%	—	—	28.92
Melgar at HT / Deportivo Garcilaso at FT	1.4%	3.5%	—	—	28.94

Last goal 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Melgar to score last	52.2%	51.8%	—	—	1.93
Deportivo Garcilaso to score last	36.2%	38.1%	—	—	2.63
No goal scored	11.6%	9.3%	—	—	10.78

Lead at any time 9

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Either team to lead by 1 at any time	88.4%	90.7%	—	—	1.10
Melgar to lead by 1 at any time	57.8%	55.2%	—	—	1.81
Deportivo Garcilaso to lead by 1 at any time	40.1%	39.1%	—	—	2.56
Either team to lead by 2 at any time	36.9%	34.8%	—	—	2.88
Melgar to lead by 2 at any time	24.9%	19.6%	—	—	5.09
Deportivo Garcilaso to lead by 2 at any time	12.0%	10.4%	—	—	9.62
Either team to lead by 3 at any time	11.2%	10.4%	—	—	9.64
Melgar to lead by 3 at any time	8.4%	6.6%	—	—	15.18
Deportivo Garcilaso to lead by 3 at any time	2.8%	1.6%	—	—	63.68

Most corners 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Melgar most corners	80.7%	81.5%	—	—	1.23
Deportivo Garcilaso most corners	12.0%	10.4%	—	—	9.60
Corners level	7.3%	8.5%	—	—	11.81

Multi goal 15

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
1-5 goals	86.2%	87.4%	87.1%	1.00×	1.14
1-4 goals	81.9%	83.5%	78.0%	1.07×	1.20
1-3 goals	71.7%	72.4%	63.8%	1.13×	1.38
2-6 goals	61.9%	63.4%	70.9%	0.89×	1.58
2-5 goals	60.4%	63.4%	67.5%	0.94×	1.58
2-4 goals	56.0%	59.2%	58.4%	1.01×	1.69
1-2 goals	52.5%	53.2%	41.1%	1.29×	1.88
2-3 goals	45.8%	48.7%	44.2%	1.10×	2.06
3-6 goals	35.2%	39.2%	49.6%	0.79×	2.55
3-5 goals	33.7%	35.4%	46.2%	0.77×	2.83
3-4 goals	29.3%	30.2%	37.1%	0.82×	3.31
4-6 goals	16.1%	18.6%	26.9%	0.69×	5.37
4-5 goals	14.5%	14.9%	23.5%	0.63×	6.72
5-6 goals	5.9%	8.7%	12.7%	0.69×	11.45
7+ goals	0.6%	2.5%	1.8%	1.39×	39.49

Never down 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Melgar never behind	48.3%	56.6%	—	—	1.77
Deportivo Garcilaso never behind	30.6%	35.7%	—	—	2.81

Odd/Even 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Odd number of goals	49.8%	50.8%	53.1%	0.96×	1.97
Even number of goals	50.2%	49.2%	46.9%	1.05×	2.03

Odd/Even 1HT 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Even goals in 1st half	58.3%	57.6%	—	—	1.74
Odd goals in 1st half	41.7%	42.4%	—	—	2.36

Odd/Even 2HT 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Even goals in 2nd half	54.0%	52.1%	—	—	1.92
Odd goals in 2nd half	46.0%	47.9%	—	—	2.09

Over/Under 12

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Under 5.5 goals	97.8%	95.5%	94.7%	1.01×	1.05
Under 4.5 goals	93.5%	92.3%	85.6%	1.08×	1.08
Over 0.5 goals	88.4%	87.7%	92.2%	0.95×	1.14
Under 3.5 goals	83.3%	82.4%	71.5%	1.15×	1.21
Under 2.5 goals	64.1%	61.7%	48.7%	1.27×	1.62
Over 1.5 goals	62.6%	61.7%	72.5%	0.85×	1.62
Under 1.5 goals	37.4%	38.3%	27.5%	1.39×	2.61
Over 2.5 goals	35.9%	38.3%	51.3%	0.75×	2.61
Over 3.5 goals	16.7%	17.6%	28.5%	0.62×	5.68
Under 0.5 goals	11.6%	12.4%	7.8%	1.58×	8.10
Over 4.5 goals	6.5%	7.7%	14.4%	0.54×	12.95
Over 5.5 goals	2.2%	4.5%	5.3%	0.85×	22.25

Over/Under (whole line) 10

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Under 6 (void on exactly 6)	99.4%	97.3%	98.1%	0.99×	1.03
Under 5 (void on exactly 5)	97.7%	97.2%	94.2%	1.03×	1.03
Under 4 (void on exactly 4)	92.7%	92.5%	83.3%	1.11×	1.08
Under 3 (void on exactly 3)	79.3%	75.9%	63.1%	1.20×	1.32
Under 2 (void on exactly 2)	51.1%	51.8%	34.9%	1.48×	1.93
Over 2 (void on exactly 2)	48.9%	48.2%	65.1%	0.74×	2.07
Over 3 (void on exactly 3)	20.7%	24.1%	36.9%	0.65×	4.16
Over 4 (void on exactly 4)	7.3%	7.5%	16.7%	0.45×	13.27
Over 5 (void on exactly 5)	2.3%	2.8%	5.8%	0.47×	36.35
Over 6 (void on exactly 6)	0.6%	2.7%	1.9%	1.46×	36.40

Over/Under 1HT 6

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Under 2.5 in 1st half	93.9%	92.9%	—	—	1.08
Under 1.5 in 1st half	77.7%	78.9%	—	—	1.27
Over 0.5 in 1st half	59.0%	63.7%	—	—	1.57
Under 0.5 in 1st half	41.0%	36.3%	—	—	2.76
Over 1.5 in 1st half	22.3%	21.1%	—	—	4.74
Over 2.5 in 1st half	6.1%	7.1%	—	—	14.07

Over/Under 2HT 6

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Under 2.5 in 2nd half	87.1%	85.3%	—	—	1.17
Over 0.5 in 2nd half	71.2%	77.7%	—	—	1.29
Under 1.5 in 2nd half	64.9%	62.4%	—	—	1.60
Over 1.5 in 2nd half	35.1%	37.6%	—	—	2.66
Under 0.5 in 2nd half	28.8%	22.3%	—	—	4.48
Over 2.5 in 2nd half	12.9%	14.7%	—	—	6.78

Score both halves 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Deportivo Garcilaso not to score in both halves	88.0%	86.1%	—	—	1.16
Melgar not to score in both halves	78.6%	78.3%	—	—	1.28
Melgar to score in both halves	21.4%	21.7%	—	—	4.61
Deportivo Garcilaso to score in both halves	12.0%	13.9%	—	—	7.18

Teams to score 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Both teams score	41.4%	46.6%	53.8%	0.87×	2.15
Only Melgar scores	30.2%	33.3%	26.5%	1.26×	3.00
Only Deportivo Garcilaso scores	16.8%	16.1%	12.2%	1.32×	6.22
Neither team scores	11.6%	10.9%	7.8%	1.40×	9.14

Total goals 7

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Exactly 2 goals	26.7%	24.9%	21.5%	1.16×	4.01
Exactly 1 goals	25.8%	24.9%	19.8%	1.26×	4.01
Exactly 3 goals	19.1%	17.4%	22.9%	0.76×	5.73
Exactly 0 goals	11.6%	12.1%	7.8%	1.54×	8.29
Exactly 4 goals	10.2%	12.1%	14.4%	0.84×	8.29
Exactly 5 goals	4.3%	4.4%	9.3%	0.48×	22.67
6 or more goals	2.2%	4.4%	5.3%	0.84×	22.71

Total goals 2nd half 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
1 goal in 2nd half	36.1%	39.9%	—	—	2.50
2+ goals in 2nd half	35.1%	39.8%	—	—	2.51
No goals in 2nd half	28.8%	29.9%	—	—	3.35

Win both halves 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Deportivo Garcilaso not to win both halves	95.6%	97.2%	—	—	1.03
Melgar not to win both halves	88.6%	88.0%	—	—	1.14
Melgar to win both halves	11.4%	12.0%	—	—	8.37
Deportivo Garcilaso to win both halves	4.4%	2.8%	—	—	35.19

Win either half 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Deportivo Garcilaso to win neither half	62.0%	65.2%	—	—	1.53
Melgar to win either half	56.4%	59.4%	—	—	1.68
Melgar to win neither half	43.6%	40.6%	—	—	2.46
Deportivo Garcilaso to win either half	38.0%	34.8%	—	—	2.87

Win to nil 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Deportivo Garcilaso not to win to nil	83.2%	83.0%	87.8%	0.95×	1.20
Melgar not to win to nil	69.8%	69.7%	73.5%	0.95×	1.44
Melgar to win to nil	30.2%	30.3%	26.5%	1.14×	3.30
Deportivo Garcilaso to win to nil	16.8%	17.0%	12.2%	1.39×	5.89

Winning margin 7

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Draw	28.4%	27.8%	25.1%	1.11×	3.60
Melgar by 1	25.1%	27.8%	25.5%	1.09×	3.60
Deportivo Garcilaso by 1	17.5%	17.0%	17.6%	0.96×	5.90
Melgar by 2	13.3%	11.8%	13.5%	0.88×	8.47
Melgar by 3+	7.1%	7.2%	11.5%	0.63×	13.80
Deportivo Garcilaso by 2	6.4%	7.2%	5.6%	1.29×	13.80
Deportivo Garcilaso by 3+	2.1%	2.7%	2.2%	1.24×	37.07