Metz v Auxerre — Prediction, Odds & Stats
Sunday 15 February 2026 · FRA-Ligue 1 · 2526
Ligue 1
xG Prediction generated
Shots
15 – 14
On target
4 – 3
Shots in box
6 – 6
xG per shot
0.05 – 0.08
Set-piece xG
0.06 – 0.00
Goals − xG
+0.25 – +1.94
AI prediction
ai-blend-oos No snapshot has been taken for this fixture yet; this is the stored price.Metz win
37.1%
Draw
23.7%
Auxerre win
39.2%
Probabilities, not certainties. How they are made: the methodology.
Was this pick made in advance?
A model whose name ends
-oos is out of sample: it was fitted only on matches
played before this one, so its pick is a genuine forecast rather than hindsight.
Anything without that suffix was fitted on all available data.What the chances say
Metz are conceding sharply more than the chances against them merit — 4.4 goals above expected, which tends to correct.
LLDDLLDLLD last 10
scored 10
from 11.1 xG
conceded 23
from 18.6 xG
Auxerre are finishing above their chances — 2.7 goals more than expected across 10 matches, which usually cools off. They are also conceding fewer than expected — 2.5 goals saved beyond what the chances suggest.
DDDLWWWLLL last 10
scored 16
from 13.3 xG
conceded 19
from 21.5 xG
Finishing swings far more than chance creation, so a gap this size usually narrows. Over ten matches it is suggestive, not settled — a genuinely elite finisher beats expected goals for years.
What the model said
| Model | Home / Draw / Away | Expected goals | Likeliest score | O2.5 | BTTS | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ai-blend-oos | 1.23–1.27 | 0% | 0% | 0% | Away ✓ | |
| dc-xg-oos | 1.17–1.28 | 1-1 13% | 44% | 50% | Away ✓ |
A model whose name ends -oos was produced by the walk-forward backtest:
it was fitted only on matches played before this one, so the pick is genuinely out of sample.
Reading the xG timeline
Each step up is a shot; the height of the step is how good the chance was. Dots mark goals.
A side whose line climbs steadily created chances all match. A side that scored while its
line stayed flat took a rare chance — that is finishing luck, and it rarely repeats.
Expected goals by minute
Metz 0.75 xGAuxerre 1.06 xG
Reading the shot map
Each circle is a shot, placed where it was taken. Bigger means a better chance;
filled circles are goals. Clusters near the goal mean a side worked good openings;
lots of small circles far out means shooting from poor positions and hoping.
Hover any circle for the player, minute and chance quality.
Shot map
Metz attacking right
Auxerre attacking left
Marker size is xG; filled markers are goals.
Every shot
| Min | Team | Player | xG | Situation | Body part | Result | Assisted by |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0' |
 Metz |
Koffi Kouao | 0.02 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | — |
| 3' |
 Auxerre |
Lassine Sinayoko | 0.12 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Kévin Danois |
| 3' |
Auxerre |
Sinaly Diomande | 0.01 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | — |
| 3' |
Metz |
Sadibou Sané | 0.00 | Open Play | — | Own Goal | — |
| 9' |
Metz |
Believe Munongo | 0.04 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | — |
| 17' |
Metz |
Koffi Kouao | 0.25 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | Giorgi Abuashvili |
| 20' |
Metz |
Believe Munongo | 0.05 | Open Play | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | — |
| 22' |
Metz |
Gauthier Hein | 0.06 | Open Play | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | — |
| 28' |
Auxerre |
Naouirou Ahamada | 0.07 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Lassine Sinayoko |
| 34' |
Metz |
Gauthier Hein | 0.09 | Open Play | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | Koffi Kouao |
| 43' |
Auxerre |
Romain Faivre | 0.05 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | — |
| 49' |
Metz |
Michel Mboula | 0.06 | From Corner | Left Foot | Saved Shot | Gauthier Hein |
| 53' |
Auxerre |
Lassine Sinayoko | 0.07 | Open Play | Left Foot | Saved Shot | Clément Akpa |
| 54' |
Metz |
Alpha Touré | 0.08 | Open Play | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | Gauthier Hein |
| 56' |
Auxerre |
Sékou Mara | 0.07 | Open Play | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | Bryan Okoh |
| 58' |
Auxerre |
Lamine Sy | 0.09 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Lassine Sinayoko |
| 59' |
Auxerre |
Lassine Sinayoko | 0.07 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Naouirou Ahamada |
| 68' |
Auxerre |
Naouirou Ahamada | 0.05 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | — |
| 69' |
Metz |
Alpha Touré | 0.02 | Open Play | Left Foot | Missed Shot | Gauthier Hein |
| 70' |
Auxerre |
Sékou Mara | 0.06 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | Naouirou Ahamada |
| 74' |
Metz |
Alpha Touré | 0.02 | Open Play | Left Foot | Missed Shot | — |
| 75' |
Auxerre |
Lassine Sinayoko | 0.12 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Naouirou Ahamada |
| 75' |
Metz |
Michel Mboula | 0.00 | Open Play | — | Own Goal | — |
| 80' |
Metz |
Giorgi Abuashvili | 0.01 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | — |
| 87' |
Auxerre |
Kévin Danois | 0.13 | Open Play | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | Lassine Sinayoko |
| 88' |
Auxerre |
Kévin Danois | 0.06 | Open Play | Right Foot | Goal | Lassine Sinayoko |
| 88' |
Metz |
Giorgi Kvilitaia | 0.02 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | Giorgi Tsitaishvili |
| 91' |
Auxerre |
Lassine Sinayoko | 0.09 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Josué Casimir |
| 93' |
Metz |
Nathan Mbala | 0.05 | Open Play | Left Foot | Goal | Alpha Touré |
Players
Auxerre
| Player | Min | G | A | Sh | KP | xG | xA | xGChain |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Lassine Sinayoko FWL | 90 | 0 | 1 | 5 | 4 | 0.47 | 0.35 | 0.88 |
| Kévin Danois MC | 90 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0.19 | 0.12 | 0.51 |
| Sinaly Diomande DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.01 | 0.00 | 0.01 |
| Bryan Okoh DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.07 | 0.28 |
| Clément Akpa DL | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.07 | 0.33 |
| Donovan Léon GK | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.06 |
| Elisha Owusu MC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.26 |
| Naouirou Ahamada MC | 83 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 3 | 0.12 | 0.25 | 0.44 |
| Lamine Sy DR | 83 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.09 | 0.00 | 0.27 |
| Sékou Mara FW | 73 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0.13 | 0.00 | 0.29 |
| Romain Faivre FWR | 73 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.05 | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| Lasso Coulibaly Sub | 17 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.06 |
| Josué Casimir Sub | 17 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.09 | 0.09 |
| Assane Diousse Sub | 7 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.13 |
| Marvin Senaya Sub | 7 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Yvan Zaddy Sub | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
Metz
| Player | Min | G | A | Sh | KP | xG | xA | xGChain |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Believe Munongo DMC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0.09 | 0.00 | 0.44 |
| Michel Mboula DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.06 | 0.00 | 0.33 |
| Jonathan Fischer GK | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.35 |
| Habib Diallo FW | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.08 |
| Giorgi Tsitaishvili AML | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.02 | 0.36 |
| Sadibou Sané DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.37 |
| Giorgi Abuashvili AMR | 83 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.01 | 0.25 | 0.35 |
| Gauthier Hein AMC | 71 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 3 | 0.14 | 0.15 | 0.48 |
| Koffi Kouao DR | 64 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0.26 | 0.09 | 0.43 |
| Fode Toure DL | 63 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.33 |
| Jessy Deminguet DMC | 47 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.33 |
| Alpha Touré Sub | 43 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 0.11 | 0.05 | 0.17 |
| Lucas Michal Sub | 27 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.03 |
| Maxime Colin Sub | 26 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.02 |
| Giorgi Kvilitaia Sub | 19 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.02 | 0.00 | 0.02 |
| Nathan Mbala Sub | 7 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.05 | 0.00 | 0.05 |