Metz v Lens — Prediction, Odds & Stats
Wednesday 29 October 2025 · FRA-Ligue 1 · 2526
Ligue 1
xG Prediction generated
Shots
16 – 10
On target
6 – 2
Shots in box
10 – 6
xG per shot
0.20 – 0.12
Set-piece xG
1.09 – 0.49
Goals − xG
-1.15 – -1.24
AI prediction
ai-blend-oos No snapshot has been taken for this fixture yet; this is the stored price.Metz win
18.4%
Draw
20.6%
Lens win
61.0%
Probabilities, not certainties. How they are made: the methodology.
Was this pick made in advance?
A model whose name ends
-oos is out of sample: it was fitted only on matches
played before this one, so its pick is a genuine forecast rather than hindsight.
Anything without that suffix was fitted on all available data.What the chances say
Metz are conceding sharply more than the chances against them merit — 4.4 goals above expected, which tends to correct.
LLDDLLDLLD last 10
scored 10
from 11.1 xG
conceded 23
from 18.6 xG
Lens are finishing sharply below their chances — 6.1 goals fewer than expected across 10 matches, despite creating the openings. They are also conceding more than the chances against them merit — 2.2 goals above expected, which tends to correct.
LWDDWLWWLL last 10
scored 18
from 24.1 xG
conceded 16
from 13.8 xG
Finishing swings far more than chance creation, so a gap this size usually narrows. Over ten matches it is suggestive, not settled — a genuinely elite finisher beats expected goals for years.
What the model said
| Model | Home / Draw / Away | Expected goals | Likeliest score | O2.5 | BTTS | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ai-blend-oos | 0.82–1.76 | 0% | 0% | 0% | Away ✗ | |
| dc-xg-oos | 0.93–2.00 | 0-2 11% | 56% | 52% | Away ✗ |
A model whose name ends -oos was produced by the walk-forward backtest:
it was fitted only on matches played before this one, so the pick is genuinely out of sample.
Reading the xG timeline
Each step up is a shot; the height of the step is how good the chance was. Dots mark goals.
A side whose line climbs steadily created chances all match. A side that scored while its
line stayed flat took a rare chance — that is finishing luck, and it rarely repeats.
Expected goals by minute
Metz 3.15 xGLens 1.24 xG
Reading the shot map
Each circle is a shot, placed where it was taken. Bigger means a better chance;
filled circles are goals. Clusters near the goal mean a side worked good openings;
lots of small circles far out means shooting from poor positions and hoping.
Hover any circle for the player, minute and chance quality.
Shot map
Metz attacking right
Lens attacking left
Marker size is xG; filled markers are goals.
Every shot
| Min | Team | Player | xG | Situation | Body part | Result | Assisted by |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6' |
 Lens |
Odsonne Edouard | 0.50 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | Matthieu Udol |
| 6' |
 Metz |
Gauthier Hein | 0.02 | Open Play | Left Foot | Missed Shot | Alpha Touré |
| 7' |
Metz |
Alpha Touré | 0.01 | From Corner | Left Foot | Missed Shot | — |
| 15' |
Lens |
Odsonne Edouard | 0.35 | Set Piece | — | Missed Shot | Florian Thauvin |
| 18' |
Lens |
Abdallah Sima | 0.04 | Open Play | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | Adrien Thomasson |
| 19' |
Metz |
Alpha Touré | 0.01 | Open Play | Left Foot | Missed Shot | Gauthier Hein |
| 32' |
Metz |
Giorgi Tsitaishvili | 0.03 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Jessy Deminguet |
| 35' |
Metz |
Habib Diallo | 0.49 | Open Play | Left Foot | Missed Shot | — |
| 35' |
Metz |
Koffi Kouao | 0.02 | Open Play | Left Foot | Saved Shot | — |
| 37' |
Metz |
Maxime Colin | 0.11 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Cheick Tidiane Sabaly |
| 42' |
Metz |
Koffi Kouao | 0.05 | Open Play | Right Foot | Shot On Post | Alpha Touré |
| 45' |
Lens |
Florian Thauvin | 0.07 | Open Play | Left Foot | Missed Shot | Morgan Guilavogui |
| 45' |
Lens |
Matthieu Udol | 0.06 | From Corner | — | Missed Shot | Florian Thauvin |
| 47' |
Lens |
Mamadou Sangaré | 0.08 | From Corner | — | Missed Shot | Adrien Thomasson |
| 50' |
Metz |
Habib Diallo | 0.44 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | Giorgi Tsitaishvili |
| 51' |
Metz |
Cheick Tidiane Sabaly | 0.18 | From Corner | Right Foot | Saved Shot | Jean-Philippe Gbamin |
| 51' |
Metz |
Jean-Philippe Gbamin | 0.18 | Open Play | — | Missed Shot | Habib Diallo |
| 51' |
Metz |
Jean-Philippe Gbamin | 0.14 | From Corner | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | — |
| 56' |
Metz |
Jessy Deminguet | 0.03 | Open Play | Left Foot | Saved Shot | Giorgi Tsitaishvili |
| 67' |
Lens |
Mamadou Sangaré | 0.05 | Open Play | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | Morgan Guilavogui |
| 67' |
Lens |
Morgan Guilavogui | 0.04 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Adrien Thomasson |
| 84' |
Metz |
Gauthier Hein | 0.05 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Alpha Touré |
| 86' |
Metz |
Gauthier Hein | 0.76 | Left Foot | Goal | — | |
| 90' |
Metz |
Gauthier Hein | 0.64 | Open Play | Left Foot | Goal | Ibou Sané |
| 93' |
Lens |
Rayan Fofana | 0.01 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | Morgan Guilavogui |
| 97' |
Lens |
Samson Baidoo | 0.03 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Mamadou Sangaré |
Players
Lens
| Player | Min | G | A | Sh | KP | xG | xA | xGChain |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mamadou Sangaré MC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0.13 | 0.03 | 0.59 |
| Florian Thauvin AMC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0.07 | 0.41 | 0.07 |
| Matthieu Udol DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.06 | 0.50 | 0.53 |
| Samson Baidoo DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.03 | 0.00 | 0.53 |
| Jonathan Gradit DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.50 |
| Adrien Thomasson MC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0.00 | 0.16 | 0.12 |
| Saud Abdulhamid DMR | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.53 |
| Robin Risser GK | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Deiver Machado DML | 69 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.07 |
| Odsonne Edouard FW | 52 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0.85 | 0.00 | 0.50 |
| Abdallah Sima AMC | 52 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.04 | 0.00 | 0.04 |
| Morgan Guilavogui Sub | 38 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 0.04 | 0.13 | 0.17 |
| Wesley Said Sub | 38 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Ruben Aguilar Sub | 21 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Rayan Fofana Sub | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.01 | 0.00 | 0.04 |
| Andrija Bulatovic Sub | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
Metz
| Player | Min | G | A | Sh | KP | xG | xA | xGChain |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Gauthier Hein MC | 90 | 2 | 0 | 4 | 1 | 1.47 | 0.01 | 0.91 |
| Habib Diallo FW | 90 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0.93 | 0.18 | 1.74 |
| Jean-Philippe Gbamin DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0.32 | 0.18 | 0.85 |
| Maxime Colin DL | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.11 | 0.00 | 0.59 |
| Koffi Kouao DR | 90 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0.07 | 0.00 | 0.27 |
| Alpha Touré DMC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 3 | 0.03 | 0.12 | 0.94 |
| Jonathan Fischer GK | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.11 |
| Terry Yegbe DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.69 |
| Cheick Tidiane Sabaly MR | 87 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.18 | 0.11 | 0.20 |
| Jessy Deminguet MC | 87 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.03 | 0.03 | 0.60 |
| Giorgi Tsitaishvili ML | 87 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0.03 | 0.47 | 0.60 |
| Ismaël Guerti Sub | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| Ibou Sané Sub | 3 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.64 | 0.64 |
| Giorgi Abuashvili Sub | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.05 |