Metz v Marseille — Prediction, Odds & Stats
Saturday 4 October 2025 · FRA-Ligue 1 · 2526
Ligue 1
xG Prediction generated
Shots
4 – 21
On target
1 – 9
Shots in box
1 – 11
xG per shot
0.04 – 0.13
Set-piece xG
0.00 – 0.14
Goals − xG
-0.15 – +0.32
AI prediction
ai-blend-oos No snapshot has been taken for this fixture yet; this is the stored price.Metz win
15.2%
Draw
16.9%
Marseille win
67.9%
Probabilities, not certainties. How they are made: the methodology.
Was this pick made in advance?
A model whose name ends
-oos is out of sample: it was fitted only on matches
played before this one, so its pick is a genuine forecast rather than hindsight.
Anything without that suffix was fitted on all available data.What the chances say
Metz are conceding sharply more than the chances against them merit — 4.4 goals above expected, which tends to correct.
LLDDLLDLLD last 10
scored 10
from 11.1 xG
conceded 23
from 18.6 xG
Marseille are finishing sharply below their chances — 8.2 goals fewer than expected across 10 matches, despite creating the openings.
LWLDLWWWLL last 10
scored 15
from 23.2 xG
conceded 15
from 16.6 xG
Finishing swings far more than chance creation, so a gap this size usually narrows. Over ten matches it is suggestive, not settled — a genuinely elite finisher beats expected goals for years.
What the model said
| Model | Home / Draw / Away | Expected goals | Likeliest score | O2.5 | BTTS | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ai-blend-oos | 0.89–2.18 | 0% | 0% | 0% | Away ✓ | |
| dc-xg-oos | 1.09–2.12 | 1-2 10% | 62% | 58% | Away ✓ |
A model whose name ends -oos was produced by the walk-forward backtest:
it was fitted only on matches played before this one, so the pick is genuinely out of sample.
Reading the xG timeline
Each step up is a shot; the height of the step is how good the chance was. Dots mark goals.
A side whose line climbs steadily created chances all match. A side that scored while its
line stayed flat took a rare chance — that is finishing luck, and it rarely repeats.
Expected goals by minute
Metz 0.15 xGMarseille 2.68 xG
Reading the shot map
Each circle is a shot, placed where it was taken. Bigger means a better chance;
filled circles are goals. Clusters near the goal mean a side worked good openings;
lots of small circles far out means shooting from poor positions and hoping.
Hover any circle for the player, minute and chance quality.
Shot map
Metz attacking right
Marseille attacking left
Marker size is xG; filled markers are goals.
Every shot
| Min | Team | Player | xG | Situation | Body part | Result | Assisted by |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2' |
 Marseille |
Angel Gomes | 0.01 | Set Piece | Right Foot | Missed Shot | — |
| 4' |
Marseille |
Mason Greenwood | 0.01 | Open Play | Left Foot | Saved Shot | Timothy Weah |
| 8' |
Marseille |
Angel Gomes | 0.36 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Robinio Vaz |
| 10' |
Marseille |
Benjamin Pavard | 0.06 | Set Piece | — | Missed Shot | Emerson |
| 21' |
Marseille |
Emerson | 0.02 | Open Play | Left Foot | Missed Shot | — |
| 23' |
 Metz |
Fode Toure | 0.07 | Open Play | Left Foot | Missed Shot | Habib Diallo |
| 24' |
Marseille |
Igor Paixão | 0.02 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Pierre-Emile Højbjerg |
| 28' |
Marseille |
Mason Greenwood | 0.02 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Angel Gomes |
| 29' |
Marseille |
Mason Greenwood | 0.05 | Open Play | Left Foot | Shot On Post | Benjamin Pavard |
| 37' |
Marseille |
Robinio Vaz | 0.69 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | Matt O'Riley |
| 47' |
Marseille |
Igor Paixão | 0.09 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | Matt O'Riley |
| 48' |
Metz |
Gauthier Hein | 0.03 | Open Play | Left Foot | Saved Shot | Habib Diallo |
| 49' |
Marseille |
Mason Greenwood | 0.06 | Open Play | Right Foot | Shot On Post | Timothy Weah |
| 50' |
Marseille |
Igor Paixão | 0.09 | Open Play | Left Foot | Goal | Robinio Vaz |
| 55' |
Marseille |
Emerson | 0.02 | From Corner | Left Foot | Missed Shot | — |
| 60' |
Marseille |
Matt O'Riley | 0.04 | Open Play | Left Foot | Missed Shot | Pierre-Emile Højbjerg |
| 61' |
Metz |
Habib Diallo | 0.04 | Open Play | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | Cheick Tidiane Sabaly |
| 64' |
Marseille |
Timothy Weah | 0.10 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Mason Greenwood |
| 68' |
Marseille |
Matt O'Riley | 0.09 | Open Play | Left Foot | Goal | Amine Gouiri |
| 71' |
Marseille |
Matt O'Riley | 0.09 | Open Play | Left Foot | Saved Shot | Mason Greenwood |
| 75' |
Marseille |
Amine Gouiri | 0.63 | Open Play | Right Foot | Goal | Matt O'Riley |
| 85' |
Metz |
Giorgi Tsitaishvili | 0.02 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Gauthier Hein |
| 93' |
Marseille |
Bilal Nadir | 0.11 | Open Play | Left Foot | Saved Shot | Pierre-Emile Højbjerg |
| 94' |
Marseille |
Mason Greenwood | 0.08 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | Bilal Nadir |
| 95' |
Marseille |
Amir Murillo | 0.04 | Direct Freekick | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | — |
Players
Marseille
| Player | Min | G | A | Sh | KP | xG | xA | xGChain |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mason Greenwood AMR | 90 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 2 | 0.22 | 0.18 | 2.26 |
| Benjamin Pavard DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.06 | 0.05 | 1.28 |
| Emerson DL | 90 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0.04 | 0.06 | 1.98 |
| Naif Aguerd DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 1.88 |
| Gerónimo Rulli GK | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Pierre-Emile Højbjerg DMC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0.00 | 0.17 | 1.38 |
| Matt O'Riley DMC | 88 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 3 | 0.22 | 1.41 | 1.79 |
| Igor Paixão AML | 83 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0.19 | 0.00 | 1.43 |
| Timothy Weah DR | 82 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0.10 | 0.07 | 1.39 |
| Robinio Vaz FW | 67 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0.69 | 0.45 | 1.18 |
| Angel Gomes AMC | 67 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0.37 | 0.02 | 1.31 |
| Amine Gouiri Sub | 23 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0.63 | 0.09 | 0.81 |
| Leonardo Balerdi Sub | 23 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.92 |
| Amir Murillo Sub | 8 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.04 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Bilal Nadir Sub | 7 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.11 | 0.08 | 0.19 |
| Arthur Vermeeren Sub | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.08 |
Metz
| Player | Min | G | A | Sh | KP | xG | xA | xGChain |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Gauthier Hein AMC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0.03 | 0.02 | 0.05 |
| Boubacar Traore MC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.12 |
| Sadibou Sané DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Koffi Kouao DMR | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.02 |
| Jonathan Fischer GK | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.03 |
| Terry Yegbe DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.06 |
| Cheick Tidiane Sabaly AMC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.04 | 0.06 |
| Fode Toure DML | 82 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.07 | 0.00 | 0.10 |
| Habib Diallo FW | 82 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0.04 | 0.10 | 0.13 |
| Jessy Deminguet MC | 82 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.13 |
| Maxime Colin Sub | 70 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| Jean-Philippe Gbamin DC | 20 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Giorgi Tsitaishvili Sub | 8 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.02 | 0.00 | 0.02 |
| Alpha Touré Sub | 8 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Brian Madjo Sub | 8 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |