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Metz v Strasbourg — Prediction, Odds & Stats

Sunday 17 August 2025 · FRA-Ligue 1 · 2526

Ligue 1 xG

0–1
0.18 – 0.73 xG
Shots
2 – 9
On target
0 – 3
Shots in box
2 – 4
xG per shot
0.09 – 0.08
Set-piece xG
0.00 – 0.10
Goals − xG
-0.18 – +0.27
Reading the xG timeline
Each step up is a shot; the height of the step is how good the chance was. Dots mark goals. A side whose line climbs steadily created chances all match. A side that scored while its line stayed flat took a rare chance — that is finishing luck, and it rarely repeats.

Expected goals by minute

0.00.20.40.60.80'15'30'45'60'75'90'Joaquín Panichelli 85' — goal
Metz 0.18 xGStrasbourg 0.73 xG
Reading the shot map
Each circle is a shot, placed where it was taken. Bigger means a better chance; filled circles are goals. Clusters near the goal mean a side worked good openings; lots of small circles far out means shooting from poor positions and hoping. Hover any circle for the player, minute and chance quality.

Shot map

Emanuel Emegha 8' — Blocked Shot (0.04 xG, Direct Freekick)Felix Lemarechal 9' — Saved Shot (0.01 xG, Set Piece)Brian Madjo 13' — Missed Shot (0.13 xG, Open Play)Samir El Mourabet 20' — Blocked Shot (0.01 xG, From Corner)Koffi Kouao 29' — Missed Shot (0.05 xG, Open Play)Felix Lemarechal 41' — Blocked Shot (0.04 xG, Open Play)Felix Lemarechal 47' — Missed Shot (0.03 xG, Direct Freekick)Emanuel Emegha 59' — Saved Shot (0.03 xG, Open Play)Emanuel Emegha 63' — Blocked Shot (0.16 xG, Open Play)Joaquín Panichelli 85' — Goal (0.33 xG, Open Play)Felix Lemarechal 97' — Missed Shot (0.07 xG, Open Play)
Metz attacking right Strasbourg attacking left Marker size is xG; filled markers are goals.

Every shot

MinTeamPlayerxG SituationBody partResultAssisted by
8' Strasbourg Emanuel Emegha 0.04 Direct Freekick Left Foot Blocked Shot
9' Strasbourg Felix Lemarechal 0.01 Set Piece Right Foot Saved Shot
13' Metz Brian Madjo 0.13 Open Play Missed Shot Giorgi Tsitaishvili
20' Strasbourg Samir El Mourabet 0.01 From Corner Left Foot Blocked Shot
29' Metz Koffi Kouao 0.05 Open Play Left Foot Missed Shot Jean-Philippe Gbamin
41' Strasbourg Felix Lemarechal 0.04 Open Play Left Foot Blocked Shot Joaquín Panichelli
47' Strasbourg Felix Lemarechal 0.03 Direct Freekick Right Foot Missed Shot
59' Strasbourg Emanuel Emegha 0.03 Open Play Saved Shot Junior Mwanga
63' Strasbourg Emanuel Emegha 0.16 Open Play Blocked Shot
85' Strasbourg Joaquín Panichelli 0.33 Open Play Goal Dilane Bakwa
97' Strasbourg Felix Lemarechal 0.07 Open Play Right Foot Missed Shot Kendry Páez

Players

Strasbourg

PlayerMinGA ShKPxGxA xGChain
Joaquín Panichelli FW 90 1 0 1 1 0.33 0.04 0.37
Emanuel Emegha FW 90 0 0 3 0 0.23 0.00 0.19
Felix Lemarechal MC 90 0 0 4 0 0.15 0.00 0.44
Junior Mwanga DC 90 0 0 0 1 0.00 0.03 0.43
Lucas Høgsberg DC 90 0 0 0 0 0.00 0.00 0.33
Mamadou Sarr DC 90 0 0 0 0 0.00 0.00 0.33
Mike Penders GK 90 0 0 0 0 0.00 0.00 0.00
Valentín Barco MC 90 0 0 0 0 0.00 0.00 0.33
Samuel Amo-Ameyaw DR 82 0 0 0 0 0.00 0.00 0.03
Samir El Mourabet MC 74 0 0 1 0 0.01 0.00 0.00
Guemissongui Ouattara DL 57 0 0 0 0 0.00 0.00 0.00
Dilane Bakwa Sub 33 0 1 0 1 0.00 0.33 0.33
Sebastian Nanasi Sub 16 0 0 0 0 0.00 0.00 0.00
Kendry Páez Sub 8 0 0 0 1 0.00 0.07 0.40

Metz

PlayerMinGA ShKPxGxA xGChain
Sadibou Sané DC 90 0 0 0 0 0.00 0.00 0.13
Michel Mboula DC 90 0 0 0 0 0.00 0.00 0.05
Jean-Philippe Gbamin DC 90 0 0 0 1 0.00 0.05 0.05
Giorgi Tsitaishvili DL 90 0 0 0 1 0.00 0.13 0.18
Jonathan Fischer GK 90 0 0 0 0 0.00 0.00 0.00
Benjamin Stambouli MC 90 0 0 0 0 0.00 0.00 0.18
Koffi Kouao DR 86 0 0 1 0 0.05 0.00 0.18
Boubacar Traore MC 86 0 0 0 0 0.00 0.00 0.00
Cheick Tidiane Sabaly FW 75 0 0 0 0 0.00 0.00 0.00
Jessy Deminguet MC 75 0 0 0 0 0.00 0.00 0.00
Brian Madjo FW 61 0 0 1 0 0.13 0.00 0.13
Idrissa Gueye Sub 29 0 0 0 0 0.00 0.00 0.00
Ibou Sané Sub 15 0 0 0 0 0.00 0.00 0.00
Alpha Touré Sub 15 0 0 0 0 0.00 0.00 0.00
Joseph N'Duquidi Sub 4 0 0 0 0 0.00 0.00 0.00
Maxime Colin Sub 4 0 0 0 0 0.00 0.00 0.00
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Match

What this page is for

One fixture in full. The model's probability for every market it prices, the prices stored against them, the teams expected to feature, and for a match already played, the shot map and the xG timeline.

How to read the shot map

Every shot is placed where it was taken and sized by its chance of being scored. A cluster of small marks from distance and a clean sheet is a side that was busy without ever threatening; two big marks and a defeat is a side that had the better of it and lost anyway. Both happen constantly, and both are invisible in the score.

How to read the xG timeline

The steps are chances as they arrived, so the shape shows who was on top and when. A flat line that jumps once near the end is a smash and grab.

Things to watch

The stored prediction is the one made before the match, kept deliberately so it can be judged afterwards. It is not re-fitted with hindsight.

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