Middlesbrough v Cardiff City — Prediction, Odds & Stats

Saturday 17 October 2026 · ENG-Championship · 2627

Championship results-only Prediction generated 6 Sep 2026, 02:06

Middlesbrough

07:30

Cardiff City

AI prediction

ai-blend v1.0 daily Priced 5 Sep, 22:23 · 997h before kick-off

Middlesbrough win

58.4%

model 60.0%

Draw

22.9%

model 23.6%

Cardiff City win

18.7%

model 16.4%

582319

Calibrated: the model's number corrected by how often calls at that confidence have landed, out of sample (2,277 settled matches in the thinnest band), then normalised. The smaller figure is the raw model output.

Top 5 scorelines

1-1 11.2%
2-0 10.4%
2-1 9.9%
1-0 9.3%
3-0 6.9%

Goals

Over 2.5	56.3%	Under 2.5	43.7%
BTTS yes	54.3%	BTTS no	45.7%
Middlesbrough 1+	86.2%	Middlesbrough 2+	58.9%
Cardiff City 1+	61.6%	Cardiff City 2+	24.9%

Expected goals 1.98 – 0.96. Every market above is read off one scoreline distribution.

Footing

AI confidence

44/100

Data quality

65/100

Model agreement

99%

★ Best pick

Nothing on a measured band prices above 1.18 here.

★ Most likely to land

Nothing on a measured band prices above 1.18 here.

Positive factors

Middlesbrough carry the stronger rating, 1516 Elo against 1367.

Risk factors

No specific risk flags beyond the usual variance of a football match.

Why the model thinks this

The price

Middlesbrough have an estimated 58.4% win probability, against 22.9% for the draw and 18.7% for Cardiff City. Expected goals from the ensemble are 1.98 for Middlesbrough and 0.96 for Cardiff City.

Why Middlesbrough

Middlesbrough carry the stronger rating, 1516 Elo against 1367.

Why the draw is live

The draw sits at 22.9%. Draws run at 28% in this competition.

Why Cardiff City can win

Nothing in the data singles out Cardiff City.

Key players

No player-level data for this fixture; the leagues with lineups are the big five.

Availability

No lineup on record for Middlesbrough, so availability is unknown. No lineup on record for Cardiff City, so availability is unknown.

The matchup, as far as the data reaches

Middlesbrough: 64% possession, 16.6 shots a match, 9.6 faced, 0.30 xG a match from set pieces. Cardiff City: 52% possession, 12.8 shots a match, 11.8 faced, 0.30 xG a match from set pieces.

Inputs last refreshed: matches 2026-09-05 22:20 · team_stats 2026-09-05 09:41 · availability 2026-09-05 21:03 · prediction 2026-09-05 18:39 ·

Middlesbrough are the model's most likely outcome at 58.4%. The likeliest scoreline is 1-1 at 11.2%. Confidence 44/100, data quality 65/100. These are probabilities, not certainties: the less likely outcome happens as often as its number says.

Written from the numbers the model saw, not by a language model; nothing here is a statistic the snapshot does not hold. How predictions work.

Was this pick made in advance?

A model whose name ends -oos is out of sample: it was fitted only on matches played before this one, so its pick is a genuine forecast rather than hindsight. Anything without that suffix was fitted on all available data.

What the model said

Model	Home / Draw / Away	Expected goals	Likeliest score	O2.5	BTTS
dc-xg	602415	1.90–0.87	1-1 12%	52%	51%

A model whose name ends -oos was produced by the walk-forward backtest: it was fitted only on matches played before this one, so the pick is genuinely out of sample.

Using this section

Every selection the model prices for this fixture, grouped by family — click a heading to open it. Calibrated is the number to read; lift shows how far it sits from what that selection normally does in this league. To compare selections across fixtures instead, use the Radar.

All markets

Every selection below comes from the same scoreline distribution, so they are mutually consistent rather than independently guessed. Calibrated is the model corrected by its own out-of-sample record; lift is how much more likely that is than the selection simply being true in this league anyway.

1X2 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Middlesbrough to win	60.2%	58.0%	43.5%	1.34×	1.72
Draw	24.3%	24.5%	27.6%	0.89×	4.09
Cardiff City to win	15.5%	19.3%	29.0%	0.67×	5.17

1X2 & GG/NG 6

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Middlesbrough & not both score	34.3%	29.7%	23.4%	1.27×	3.36
Middlesbrough & both teams score	25.9%	25.2%	20.2%	1.25×	3.97
Draw & both teams score	16.8%	17.9%	20.4%	0.88×	5.58
Cardiff City & both teams score	8.0%	8.4%	13.8%	0.61×	11.93
Draw & not both score	7.5%	8.4%	7.3%	1.15×	11.93
Cardiff City & not both score	7.5%	8.4%	15.3%	0.55×	11.93

1X2 & Over/Under 18

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Middlesbrough & over 1.5	49.6%	45.2%	32.5%	1.39×	2.21
Middlesbrough & under 3.5	39.0%	34.9%	32.5%	1.08×	2.86
Middlesbrough & over 2.5	38.3%	34.9%	26.4%	1.32×	2.86
Middlesbrough & under 2.5	22.0%	21.6%	17.2%	1.26×	4.62
Middlesbrough & over 3.5	21.3%	21.6%	11.1%	1.95×	4.62
Draw & under 2.5	19.1%	18.0%	21.6%	0.83×	5.56
Draw & under 3.5	19.1%	18.0%	21.6%	0.83×	5.56
Draw & over 1.5	16.8%	18.0%	20.4%	0.88×	5.56
Cardiff City & under 3.5	11.9%	12.9%	22.3%	0.58×	7.77
Middlesbrough & under 1.5	10.7%	12.9%	11.1%	1.16×	7.77
Cardiff City & over 1.5	11.2%	12.9%	21.4%	0.60×	7.77
Cardiff City & over 2.5	8.8%	7.9%	16.2%	0.49×	12.70
Draw & under 1.5	7.5%	7.9%	7.3%	1.08×	12.70
Cardiff City & under 2.5	6.6%	7.9%	13.0%	0.61×	12.70
Draw & over 2.5	5.2%	7.9%	6.0%	1.31×	12.70
Draw & over 3.5	5.2%	7.9%	6.0%	1.31×	12.70
Cardiff City & under 1.5	4.3%	4.8%	7.7%	0.62×	20.92
Cardiff City & over 3.5	3.6%	4.8%	6.8%	0.70×	20.93

1X2 1UP 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Middlesbrough (1UP)	72.3%	75.8%	—	—	1.32
Cardiff City (1UP)	32.9%	32.8%	—	—	3.05

1X2 2UP 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Middlesbrough (2UP)	60.2%	67.4%	—	—	1.48
Cardiff City (2UP)	15.5%	17.3%	—	—	5.78

2nd half 1X2 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Middlesbrough to win 2nd half	48.7%	45.8%	—	—	2.18
2nd half drawn	34.0%	34.3%	—	—	2.92
Cardiff City to win 2nd half	17.3%	19.1%	—	—	5.23

Asian handicap 8

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Middlesbrough (+0.5)	84.5%	82.4%	71.0%	1.16×	1.21
Cardiff City (+2.5)	82.4%	82.4%	91.9%	0.90×	1.21
Cardiff City (+1.5)	63.4%	62.9%	80.7%	0.78×	1.59
Middlesbrough (-0.5)	60.2%	62.9%	43.5%	1.45×	1.59
Cardiff City (+0.5)	39.8%	37.1%	56.5%	0.66×	2.69
Middlesbrough (-1.5)	36.6%	37.1%	19.3%	1.92×	2.70
Middlesbrough (-2.5)	17.6%	17.6%	8.1%	2.18×	5.68
Cardiff City (-0.5)	15.5%	17.6%	29.0%	0.61×	5.69

Away clean sheet 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Cardiff City to concede	85.0%	81.4%	77.5%	1.05×	1.23
Cardiff City clean sheet	15.0%	18.6%	22.5%	0.83×	5.37

Away clean sheet 1HT 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Cardiff City to concede in 1st half	55.7%	57.8%	—	—	1.73
Cardiff City clean sheet in 1st half	44.3%	42.2%	—	—	2.37

Away corners O/U 10

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Cardiff City over 2.5 corners	76.4%	75.9%	—	—	1.32
Cardiff City under 6.5 corners	74.3%	71.6%	—	—	1.40
Cardiff City under 5.5 corners	64.1%	61.8%	—	—	1.62
Cardiff City over 3.5 corners	62.3%	61.8%	—	—	1.62
Cardiff City under 4.5 corners	51.7%	53.1%	—	—	1.88
Cardiff City over 4.5 corners	48.3%	46.9%	—	—	2.13
Cardiff City under 3.5 corners	37.7%	38.2%	—	—	2.62
Cardiff City over 5.5 corners	35.9%	38.2%	—	—	2.62
Cardiff City over 6.5 corners	25.7%	28.4%	—	—	3.52
Cardiff City under 2.5 corners	23.6%	24.1%	—	—	4.15

Away goals O/U 8

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Cardiff City under 3.5 goals	98.8%	97.6%	97.8%	1.00×	1.03
Cardiff City under 2.5 goals	94.2%	92.4%	90.6%	1.02×	1.08
Cardiff City under 1.5 goals	78.3%	76.2%	69.9%	1.09×	1.31
Cardiff City over 0.5 goals	58.1%	59.6%	69.4%	0.86×	1.68
Cardiff City under 0.5 goals	41.9%	40.4%	30.6%	1.32×	2.47
Cardiff City over 1.5 goals	21.7%	23.8%	30.1%	0.79×	4.21
Cardiff City over 2.5 goals	5.8%	7.6%	9.5%	0.81×	13.08
Cardiff City over 3.5 goals	1.2%	2.4%	2.2%	1.09×	40.92

Away goals O/U 1HT 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Cardiff City under 1.5 in 1st half	95.2%	95.5%	—	—	1.05
Cardiff City under 0.5 in 1st half	70.6%	68.3%	—	—	1.47
Cardiff City over 0.5 in 1st half	29.4%	31.7%	—	—	3.15
Cardiff City over 1.5 in 1st half	4.8%	4.5%	—	—	22.46

Away no bet 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Middlesbrough (away no bet)	71.3%	68.5%	61.2%	1.12×	1.46
Draw (away no bet)	28.7%	31.5%	38.8%	0.81×	3.18

Away Odd/Even 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Cardiff City even goals	58.8%	56.9%	52.6%	1.08×	1.76
Cardiff City odd goals	41.2%	43.1%	47.4%	0.91×	2.32

Both halves O1.5 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Not both halves over 1.5	84.6%	83.1%	—	—	1.20
Both halves over 1.5 goals	15.4%	16.9%	—	—	5.93

Both halves U1.5 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Not both halves under 1.5	65.2%	68.3%	—	—	1.46
Both halves under 1.5 goals	34.8%	31.7%	—	—	3.16

Consecutive goals 6

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Either team to score 2+ in a row	59.2%	55.4%	—	—	1.81
Middlesbrough to score 2+ in a row	49.6%	46.0%	—	—	2.17
Either team to score 3+ in a row	24.8%	19.6%	—	—	5.11
Middlesbrough to score 3+ in a row	22.2%	19.5%	—	—	5.13
Cardiff City to score 2+ in a row	14.6%	12.2%	—	—	8.22
Cardiff City to score 3+ in a row	2.8%	2.6%	—	—	38.70

Corner handicap 12

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Middlesbrough corners (+3.5)	86.8%	84.5%	—	—	1.18
Middlesbrough corners (+2.5)	81.6%	79.7%	—	—	1.25
Middlesbrough corners (+1.5)	75.0%	74.9%	—	—	1.34
Cardiff City corners (+3.5)	66.7%	65.8%	—	—	1.52
Cardiff City corners (+2.5)	58.6%	57.2%	—	—	1.75
Middlesbrough corners (-1.5)	50.1%	52.5%	—	—	1.91
Cardiff City corners (+1.5)	49.9%	47.5%	—	—	2.10
Middlesbrough corners (-2.5)	41.4%	42.9%	—	—	2.33
Middlesbrough corners (-3.5)	33.3%	34.2%	—	—	2.92
Cardiff City corners (-1.5)	25.0%	25.1%	—	—	3.98
Cardiff City corners (-2.5)	18.4%	20.3%	—	—	4.93
Cardiff City corners (-3.5)	13.2%	15.5%	—	—	6.45

Corner range 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
12+ corners	44.6%	38.7%	—	—	2.59
0-8 corners	30.2%	33.2%	—	—	3.01
9-11 corners	25.1%	31.2%	—	—	3.20

Corners O/U 12

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Over 7.5 corners	77.6%	76.5%	—	—	1.31
Over 8.5 corners	69.8%	67.7%	—	—	1.48
Under 12.5 corners	63.0%	63.4%	—	—	1.58
Over 9.5 corners	61.4%	63.4%	—	—	1.58
Under 11.5 corners	55.4%	57.7%	—	—	1.73
Over 10.5 corners	52.9%	53.3%	—	—	1.88
Under 10.5 corners	47.1%	46.7%	—	—	2.14
Over 11.5 corners	44.6%	42.3%	—	—	2.37
Under 9.5 corners	38.6%	36.6%	—	—	2.73
Over 12.5 corners	37.0%	36.6%	—	—	2.73
Under 8.5 corners	30.2%	32.3%	—	—	3.09
Under 7.5 corners	22.4%	23.5%	—	—	4.26

Corners Odd/Even 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Odd number of corners	50.0%	50.2%	—	—	1.99
Even number of corners	50.0%	49.9%	—	—	2.01

Correct score 26

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
1-1	11.6%	11.4%	14.4%	0.79×	8.74
2-0	11.3%	11.4%	6.2%	1.85×	8.74
1-0	10.7%	11.4%	11.1%	1.03×	8.74
2-1	9.8%	7.4%	11.4%	0.65×	13.47
0-0	7.5%	7.4%	7.3%	1.02×	13.47
3-0	7.1%	7.4%	4.0%	1.84×	13.47
3-1	6.2%	7.4%	4.3%	1.73×	13.47
0-1	4.3%	1.7%	7.7%	0.22×	58.50
0-2	2.4%	1.7%	5.3%	0.32×	58.51
0-3	0.7%	1.7%	1.6%	1.05×	58.52
0-4	0.2%	1.7%	0.4%	3.98×	58.52
1-2	4.5%	1.7%	7.9%	0.22×	58.50
1-3	1.3%	1.7%	3.1%	0.55×	58.52
1-4	0.3%	1.7%	0.6%	2.84×	58.52
2-2	4.3%	1.7%	5.2%	0.33×	58.50
2-3	1.2%	1.7%	1.6%	1.05×	58.52
2-4	0.3%	1.7%	0.3%	6.63×	58.52
3-2	2.7%	1.7%	1.8%	0.95×	58.51
3-3	0.8%	1.7%	0.9%	1.99×	58.52
3-4	0.2%	1.7%	0.3%	6.63×	58.52
4-0	3.4%	1.7%	1.7%	0.99×	58.50
4-1	2.9%	1.7%	0.9%	1.99×	58.51
4-2	1.3%	1.7%	0.8%	2.21×	58.52
4-3	0.4%	1.7%	0.2%	9.95×	58.52
4-4	0.1%	1.7%	0.1%	19.89×	58.52
Any other score	4.6%	1.7%	2.9%	0.59×	58.50

DNB half time 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Middlesbrough leading at HT (DNB)	75.1%	77.5%	—	—	1.29
Cardiff City leading at HT (DNB)	24.9%	22.5%	—	—	4.44

Double chance 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Middlesbrough or draw (1X)	84.5%	80.7%	71.0%	1.14×	1.24
Middlesbrough or Cardiff City (12)	75.7%	75.5%	72.4%	1.04×	1.32
Cardiff City or draw (X2)	39.8%	42.0%	56.5%	0.74×	2.38

Double chance 1HT 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Middlesbrough or draw at HT	85.4%	88.0%	—	—	1.14
Middlesbrough or Cardiff City at HT	58.8%	56.6%	—	—	1.77
Cardiff City or draw at HT	55.8%	56.5%	—	—	1.77

Double chance 1UP 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Middlesbrough or draw (1UP)	84.5%	88.6%	—	—	1.13
Cardiff City or draw (1UP)	39.8%	42.5%	—	—	2.35

Double chance 2HT 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Middlesbrough or draw in 2nd half	82.7%	80.9%	—	—	1.24
Middlesbrough or Cardiff City in 2nd half	66.0%	65.7%	—	—	1.52
Cardiff City or draw in 2nd half	51.3%	54.2%	—	—	1.85

Draw either half 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
A half drawn	59.8%	58.2%	—	—	1.72
Neither half drawn	40.2%	41.8%	—	—	2.39

Draw no bet 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Middlesbrough (DNB)	79.6%	74.7%	60.0%	1.25×	1.34
Cardiff City (DNB)	20.4%	25.3%	40.0%	0.63×	3.95

First goal 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Middlesbrough to score first	63.4%	64.7%	—	—	1.55
Cardiff City to score first	29.1%	28.4%	—	—	3.52
No goal scored	7.5%	7.5%	—	—	13.34

GG/NG 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Both teams to score	50.6%	51.4%	54.2%	0.95×	1.94
Not both teams to score	49.4%	48.6%	45.8%	1.06×	2.06

GG/NG & Over/Under 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Both score & over 2.5	39.0%	38.5%	39.9%	0.97×	2.60
Not both score & under 2.5	36.1%	38.5%	37.3%	1.03×	2.60
Not both score & over 2.5	13.2%	12.3%	8.6%	1.43×	8.12
Both score & under 2.5	11.6%	12.3%	14.4%	0.85×	8.12

GG/NG 2+ 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Not both teams to score 2+	87.7%	85.7%	89.0%	0.96×	1.17
Both teams to score 2+	12.3%	14.3%	11.0%	1.30×	6.98

GG/NG 2nd half 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Not both to score in 2nd half	72.7%	74.3%	—	—	1.35
Both teams to score in 2nd half	27.3%	25.7%	—	—	3.89

GG/NG by half 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Neither half both score	60.5%	66.6%	—	—	1.50
Both score 2nd half only	22.9%	20.9%	—	—	4.78
Both score 1st half only	12.2%	10.5%	—	—	9.49
Both score in both halves	4.4%	5.0%	—	—	20.18

GG/NG half time 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Not both to score by HT	83.4%	82.9%	—	—	1.21
Both teams to score by HT	16.6%	17.1%	—	—	5.84

Goal in both halves 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
A goal in each half	55.5%	57.3%	—	—	1.75
A half without a goal	44.5%	42.7%	—	—	2.34

Goal range 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
2-3 goals	47.5%	47.4%	50.4%	0.94×	2.11
4-6 goals	27.8%	26.4%	22.4%	1.18×	3.78
0-1 goals	22.5%	22.8%	25.9%	0.88×	4.38
7+ goals	2.3%	1.8%	1.4%	1.32×	55.02

Goals away 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Cardiff City to score exactly 0	41.9%	37.0%	30.6%	1.21×	2.70
Cardiff City to score exactly 1	36.5%	36.0%	39.4%	0.91×	2.78
Cardiff City to score exactly 2	15.9%	19.5%	20.7%	0.94×	5.12
Cardiff City to score 3+	5.8%	8.5%	9.5%	0.89×	11.83

Goals home 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Middlesbrough to score 3+	29.5%	26.5%	16.2%	1.64×	3.77
Middlesbrough to score exactly 1	28.5%	26.5%	36.9%	0.72×	3.77
Middlesbrough to score exactly 2	27.0%	26.5%	24.6%	1.08×	3.77
Middlesbrough to score exactly 0	15.0%	18.9%	22.5%	0.84×	5.30

Half time 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Middlesbrough leading at HT	44.2%	43.5%	—	—	2.30
Draw at HT	41.2%	43.4%	—	—	2.31
Cardiff City leading at HT	14.6%	12.0%	—	—	8.33

Handicap 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Middlesbrough -1: 2	39.8%	37.4%	—	—	2.68
Middlesbrough -1: 1	36.6%	37.3%	—	—	2.68
Middlesbrough -1: X	23.7%	23.6%	—	—	4.24

Handicap 0:1 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Cardiff City (0:1)	39.8%	37.4%	56.5%	0.66×	2.68
Middlesbrough (0:1)	36.6%	37.3%	19.3%	1.93×	2.68
Draw (0:1)	23.7%	24.3%	24.2%	1.00×	4.12

Handicap 0:2 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Cardiff City (0:2)	63.4%	67.3%	80.7%	0.83×	1.49
Draw (0:2)	19.0%	15.3%	11.3%	1.35×	6.53
Middlesbrough (0:2)	17.6%	15.3%	8.1%	1.89×	6.54

Handicap 0:3 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Cardiff City (0:3)	82.4%	85.1%	91.9%	0.93×	1.18
Draw (0:3)	10.6%	10.0%	4.8%	2.08×	10.01
Middlesbrough (0:3)	7.0%	5.8%	3.4%	1.74×	17.19

Handicap 0:4 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Cardiff City (0:4)	93.0%	94.7%	96.6%	0.98×	1.06
Draw (0:4)	4.7%	1.2%	2.4%	0.50×	83.06
Middlesbrough (0:4)	2.4%	1.2%	1.0%	1.16×	83.34

Handicap 1:0 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Middlesbrough (1:0)	84.5%	81.5%	71.0%	1.15×	1.23
Draw (1:0)	10.2%	12.8%	17.3%	0.74×	7.81
Cardiff City (1:0)	5.3%	6.9%	11.9%	0.58×	14.50

Handicap 2:0 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Middlesbrough (2:0)	94.7%	94.0%	88.1%	1.07×	1.06
Draw (2:0)	4.0%	2.3%	8.7%	0.26×	44.25
Cardiff City (2:0)	1.3%	2.3%	3.3%	0.69×	44.43

Highest scoring half 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
2nd half highest scoring	46.5%	48.1%	—	—	2.08
1st half highest scoring	26.9%	26.5%	—	—	3.77
Halves equal	26.6%	26.5%	—	—	3.77

Home clean sheet 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Middlesbrough to concede	58.1%	60.9%	69.4%	0.88×	1.64
Middlesbrough clean sheet	41.9%	39.1%	30.6%	1.28×	2.56

Home clean sheet 1HT 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Middlesbrough clean sheet in 1st half	70.6%	67.9%	—	—	1.47
Middlesbrough to concede in 1st half	29.4%	32.1%	—	—	3.11

Home corners O/U 10

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Middlesbrough over 2.5 corners	87.1%	86.3%	—	—	1.16
Middlesbrough over 3.5 corners	77.4%	76.6%	—	—	1.31
Middlesbrough over 4.5 corners	66.3%	66.7%	—	—	1.50
Middlesbrough under 6.5 corners	55.8%	57.5%	—	—	1.74
Middlesbrough over 5.5 corners	55.0%	52.8%	—	—	1.89
Middlesbrough under 5.5 corners	45.0%	47.2%	—	—	2.12
Middlesbrough over 6.5 corners	44.2%	42.5%	—	—	2.35
Middlesbrough under 4.5 corners	33.7%	33.3%	—	—	3.00
Middlesbrough under 3.5 corners	22.6%	23.4%	—	—	4.27
Middlesbrough under 2.5 corners	12.9%	13.7%	—	—	7.28

Home goals O/U 8

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Middlesbrough under 3.5 goals	87.6%	87.2%	94.8%	0.92×	1.15
Middlesbrough over 0.5 goals	85.0%	82.1%	77.5%	1.06×	1.22
Middlesbrough under 2.5 goals	70.5%	74.2%	83.8%	0.88×	1.35
Middlesbrough over 1.5 goals	56.5%	58.8%	40.6%	1.45×	1.70
Middlesbrough under 1.5 goals	43.5%	41.2%	59.4%	0.69×	2.43
Middlesbrough over 2.5 goals	29.5%	25.8%	16.2%	1.60×	3.88
Middlesbrough under 0.5 goals	15.0%	17.9%	22.5%	0.79×	5.60
Middlesbrough over 3.5 goals	12.4%	12.8%	5.2%	2.47×	7.84

Home goals O/U 1HT 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Middlesbrough under 1.5 in 1st half	80.3%	84.3%	—	—	1.19
Middlesbrough over 0.5 in 1st half	55.7%	57.4%	—	—	1.74
Middlesbrough under 0.5 in 1st half	44.3%	42.6%	—	—	2.35
Middlesbrough over 1.5 in 1st half	19.7%	15.7%	—	—	6.38

Home no bet 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Draw (home no bet)	61.1%	60.1%	48.7%	1.23×	1.66
Cardiff City (home no bet)	38.9%	39.9%	51.3%	0.78×	2.51

Home Odd/Even 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Middlesbrough even goals	51.1%	50.6%	50.5%	1.00×	1.98
Middlesbrough odd goals	48.9%	49.4%	49.5%	1.00×	2.03

HT correct score 10

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
HT 0-0	31.4%	32.1%	—	—	3.12
HT 1-0	25.3%	29.0%	—	—	3.45
HT 0-1	10.7%	11.0%	—	—	9.13
HT 2-0	10.4%	11.0%	—	—	9.13
HT 1-1	9.1%	7.1%	—	—	14.15
Any other HT score	5.5%	7.0%	—	—	14.20
HT 2-1	3.6%	2.3%	—	—	43.80
HT 0-2	1.9%	2.3%	—	—	43.93
HT 1-2	1.5%	2.3%	—	—	43.95
HT 2-2	0.6%	2.3%	—	—	44.02

HT/FT 9

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Middlesbrough at HT / Middlesbrough at FT	38.2%	41.0%	—	—	2.44
Draw at HT / Middlesbrough at FT	19.3%	16.8%	—	—	5.94
Draw at HT / Draw at FT	15.4%	16.8%	—	—	5.95
Cardiff City at HT / Cardiff City at FT	7.8%	6.0%	—	—	16.57
Draw at HT / Cardiff City at FT	6.5%	6.0%	—	—	16.61
Middlesbrough at HT / Draw at FT	4.7%	3.5%	—	—	28.80
Cardiff City at HT / Draw at FT	4.1%	3.5%	—	—	28.83
Cardiff City at HT / Middlesbrough at FT	2.7%	3.5%	—	—	28.88
Middlesbrough at HT / Cardiff City at FT	1.2%	3.5%	—	—	28.94

Last goal 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Middlesbrough to score last	63.6%	62.2%	—	—	1.61
Cardiff City to score last	28.9%	27.2%	—	—	3.68
No goal scored	7.5%	7.5%	—	—	13.34

Lead at any time 9

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Either team to lead by 1 at any time	92.5%	92.6%	—	—	1.08
Middlesbrough to lead by 1 at any time	72.3%	74.2%	—	—	1.35
Either team to lead by 2 at any time	51.5%	50.6%	—	—	1.98
Middlesbrough to lead by 2 at any time	42.7%	39.2%	—	—	2.55
Cardiff City to lead by 1 at any time	32.9%	29.3%	—	—	3.41
Either team to lead by 3 at any time	22.2%	19.6%	—	—	5.11
Middlesbrough to lead by 3 at any time	20.2%	19.5%	—	—	5.12
Cardiff City to lead by 2 at any time	9.0%	6.6%	—	—	15.15
Cardiff City to lead by 3 at any time	2.0%	1.5%	—	—	64.60

Most corners 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Middlesbrough most corners	58.9%	55.4%	—	—	1.80
Cardiff City most corners	32.6%	34.3%	—	—	2.92
Corners level	8.5%	8.5%	—	—	11.80

Multi goal 15

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
1-5 goals	86.3%	87.4%	88.8%	0.98×	1.14
1-4 goals	77.8%	78.6%	83.4%	0.94×	1.27
2-6 goals	75.2%	78.6%	72.8%	1.08×	1.27
2-5 goals	71.3%	72.4%	70.2%	1.03×	1.38
2-4 goals	62.8%	63.4%	64.8%	0.98×	1.58
1-3 goals	62.4%	63.4%	69.1%	0.92×	1.58
3-6 goals	50.0%	48.7%	47.1%	1.03×	2.06
2-3 goals	47.5%	48.7%	50.4%	0.96×	2.06
3-5 goals	46.0%	48.7%	44.5%	1.09×	2.06
1-2 goals	40.2%	43.6%	44.4%	0.98×	2.30
3-4 goals	37.5%	39.2%	39.1%	1.00×	2.55
4-6 goals	27.8%	30.2%	22.4%	1.35×	3.31
4-5 goals	23.9%	24.5%	19.8%	1.23×	4.09
5-6 goals	12.4%	14.9%	8.1%	1.84×	6.72
7+ goals	2.3%	2.5%	1.4%	1.85×	39.41

Never down 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Middlesbrough never behind	59.6%	62.8%	—	—	1.59
Cardiff City never behind	20.1%	24.1%	—	—	4.16

Odd/Even 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Odd number of goals	47.4%	50.8%	49.4%	1.03×	1.97
Even number of goals	52.6%	49.2%	50.6%	0.97×	2.03

Odd/Even 1HT 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Even goals in 1st half	55.3%	57.4%	—	—	1.74
Odd goals in 1st half	44.7%	42.6%	—	—	2.35

Odd/Even 2HT 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Even goals in 2nd half	52.9%	52.1%	—	—	1.92
Odd goals in 2nd half	47.1%	47.9%	—	—	2.09

Over/Under 12

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Under 5.5 goals	93.8%	92.3%	96.0%	0.96×	1.08
Over 0.5 goals	92.5%	92.3%	92.7%	1.00×	1.08
Under 4.5 goals	85.3%	87.6%	90.6%	0.97×	1.14
Over 1.5 goals	77.5%	77.4%	74.1%	1.04×	1.29
Under 3.5 goals	69.9%	66.2%	76.3%	0.87×	1.51
Over 2.5 goals	52.3%	52.5%	48.4%	1.08×	1.91
Under 2.5 goals	47.7%	47.5%	51.6%	0.92×	2.10
Over 3.5 goals	30.1%	33.8%	23.7%	1.42×	2.96
Under 1.5 goals	22.5%	22.6%	25.9%	0.87×	4.42
Over 4.5 goals	14.7%	12.4%	9.4%	1.32×	8.09
Under 0.5 goals	7.5%	7.7%	7.3%	1.06×	12.94
Over 5.5 goals	6.2%	7.7%	4.0%	1.95×	12.95

Over/Under (whole line) 10

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Under 6 (void on exactly 6)	97.6%	97.2%	98.6%	0.99×	1.03
Under 5 (void on exactly 5)	93.2%	92.5%	95.8%	0.97×	1.08
Under 4 (void on exactly 4)	82.6%	81.1%	89.1%	0.91×	1.23
Over 2 (void on exactly 2)	69.9%	67.4%	65.1%	1.04×	1.48
Under 3 (void on exactly 3)	61.4%	62.1%	68.5%	0.91×	1.61
Over 3 (void on exactly 3)	38.6%	37.9%	31.5%	1.21×	2.64
Under 2 (void on exactly 2)	30.1%	32.6%	34.9%	0.93×	3.07
Over 4 (void on exactly 4)	17.4%	18.9%	10.9%	1.73×	5.28
Over 5 (void on exactly 5)	6.8%	7.5%	4.2%	1.80×	13.28
Over 6 (void on exactly 6)	2.4%	2.8%	1.4%	1.95×	36.35

Over/Under 1HT 6

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Under 2.5 in 1st half	88.7%	89.1%	—	—	1.12
Over 0.5 in 1st half	68.6%	69.2%	—	—	1.45
Under 1.5 in 1st half	67.4%	69.1%	—	—	1.45
Over 1.5 in 1st half	32.6%	30.9%	—	—	3.24
Under 0.5 in 1st half	31.4%	30.8%	—	—	3.24
Over 2.5 in 1st half	11.3%	10.9%	—	—	9.18

Over/Under 2HT 6

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Over 0.5 in 2nd half	79.5%	80.0%	—	—	1.25
Under 2.5 in 2nd half	78.3%	79.9%	—	—	1.25
Under 1.5 in 2nd half	52.0%	53.4%	—	—	1.87
Over 1.5 in 2nd half	48.0%	46.6%	—	—	2.15
Over 2.5 in 2nd half	21.7%	20.1%	—	—	4.99
Under 0.5 in 2nd half	20.5%	20.0%	—	—	5.00

Score both halves 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Cardiff City not to score in both halves	88.0%	86.1%	—	—	1.16
Middlesbrough not to score in both halves	63.2%	63.5%	—	—	1.57
Middlesbrough to score in both halves	36.8%	36.5%	—	—	2.74
Cardiff City to score in both halves	12.0%	13.9%	—	—	7.18

Teams to score 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Both teams score	50.6%	53.9%	54.2%	0.99×	1.86
Only Middlesbrough scores	34.3%	33.4%	23.4%	1.43×	3.00
Only Cardiff City scores	7.5%	7.2%	15.3%	0.47×	13.91
Neither team scores	7.5%	7.2%	7.3%	0.98×	13.91

Total goals 7

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Exactly 2 goals	25.3%	24.9%	25.8%	0.97×	4.01
Exactly 3 goals	22.2%	22.6%	24.7%	0.91×	4.42
Exactly 4 goals	15.4%	17.4%	14.4%	1.21×	5.74
Exactly 1 goals	15.0%	12.1%	18.7%	0.64×	8.28
Exactly 5 goals	8.5%	7.6%	5.5%	1.39×	13.09
Exactly 0 goals	7.5%	7.6%	7.3%	1.05×	13.09
6 or more goals	6.2%	7.6%	4.0%	1.93×	13.10

Total goals 2nd half 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
2+ goals in 2nd half	48.0%	44.8%	—	—	2.23
1 goal in 2nd half	31.4%	33.6%	—	—	2.98
No goals in 2nd half	20.5%	23.0%	—	—	4.36

Win both halves 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Cardiff City not to win both halves	97.4%	97.2%	—	—	1.03
Middlesbrough not to win both halves	78.2%	75.4%	—	—	1.33
Middlesbrough to win both halves	21.8%	24.6%	—	—	4.07
Cardiff City to win both halves	2.6%	2.8%	—	—	35.95

Win either half 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Middlesbrough to win either half	71.1%	72.9%	—	—	1.37
Cardiff City to win neither half	70.7%	72.9%	—	—	1.37
Cardiff City to win either half	29.3%	27.1%	—	—	3.69
Middlesbrough to win neither half	28.9%	27.1%	—	—	3.69

Win to nil 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Cardiff City not to win to nil	92.5%	92.0%	84.7%	1.09×	1.09
Middlesbrough not to win to nil	65.7%	69.6%	76.6%	0.91×	1.44
Middlesbrough to win to nil	34.3%	30.4%	23.4%	1.30×	3.29
Cardiff City to win to nil	7.5%	8.0%	15.3%	0.52×	12.55

Winning margin 7

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Draw	24.3%	24.2%	27.6%	0.88×	4.14
Middlesbrough by 1	23.7%	24.2%	24.2%	1.00×	4.14
Middlesbrough by 2	19.0%	17.0%	11.3%	1.50×	5.90
Middlesbrough by 3+	17.6%	17.0%	8.1%	2.10×	5.90
Cardiff City by 1	10.2%	11.8%	17.3%	0.68×	8.47
Cardiff City by 2	4.0%	2.7%	8.7%	0.31×	37.01
Cardiff City by 3+	1.3%	2.7%	3.3%	0.83×	37.10