Modena v Mantova — Prediction, Odds & Stats

Saturday 31 October 2026 · ITA-Serie B · 2627

ITA-Serie B results-only Prediction generated 7 Sep 2026, 02:03

Modena

14:00

Mantova

AI prediction

ai-blend v1.0 daily Priced 5 Sep, 22:23 · 1,340h before kick-off

Modena win

48.6%

model 47.8%

Draw

28.0%

model 28.9%

Mantova win

23.4%

model 23.2%

492823

Calibrated: the model's number corrected by how often calls at that confidence have landed, out of sample (3,799 settled matches in the thinnest band), then normalised. The smaller figure is the raw model output.

Top 5 scorelines

1-1 13.8%
1-0 10.6%
0-0 9.6%
2-0 9.3%
2-1 9.3%

Goals

Over 2.5	46.2%	Under 2.5	53.8%
BTTS yes	51.0%	BTTS no	49.0%
Modena 1+	78.2%	Modena 2+	45.0%
Mantova 1+	63.2%	Mantova 2+	26.4%

Expected goals 1.52 – 1.00. Every market above is read off one scoreline distribution.

Footing

AI confidence

46/100

Data quality

65/100

Model agreement

92%

★ Best pick

Nothing on a measured band prices above 1.18 here.

★ Most likely to land

Nothing on a measured band prices above 1.18 here.

Positive factors

Form is good: 1.80 points a match from the last five.

Risk factors

No specific risk flags beyond the usual variance of a football match.

Why the model thinks this

The price

Modena have an estimated 48.6% win probability, against 28.0% for the draw and 23.4% for Mantova. Expected goals from the ensemble are 1.52 for Modena and 1.00 for Mantova.

Why Modena

Form is good: 1.80 points a match from the last five.

Why the draw is live

The draw sits at 28.0%. Draws run at 32% in this competition.

Why Mantova can win

Form is good: 2.40 points a match from the last five.

Key players

No player-level data for this fixture; the leagues with lineups are the big five.

Availability

No lineup on record for Modena, so availability is unknown. No lineup on record for Mantova, so availability is unknown.

The matchup, as far as the data reaches

Modena: 47% possession, 9.8 shots a match, 12.8 faced, 0.30 xG a match from set pieces. Mantova: 52% possession, 14.6 shots a match, 12.6 faced, 0.30 xG a match from set pieces.

Inputs last refreshed: matches 2026-09-05 22:20 · team_stats 2026-09-05 09:41 · availability 2026-09-05 21:03 · prediction 2026-09-05 18:39 ·

Modena are the model's most likely outcome at 48.6%. The likeliest scoreline is 1-1 at 13.8%. Confidence 46/100, data quality 65/100. These are probabilities, not certainties: the less likely outcome happens as often as its number says.

Written from the numbers the model saw, not by a language model; nothing here is a statistic the snapshot does not hold. How predictions work.

Was this pick made in advance?

A model whose name ends -oos is out of sample: it was fitted only on matches played before this one, so its pick is a genuine forecast rather than hindsight. Anything without that suffix was fitted on all available data.

What the model said

Model	Home / Draw / Away	Expected goals	Likeliest score	O2.5	BTTS
dc-xg	562618	1.76–0.92	1-1 13%	50%	51%

A model whose name ends -oos was produced by the walk-forward backtest: it was fitted only on matches played before this one, so the pick is genuinely out of sample.

Using this section

Every selection the model prices for this fixture, grouped by family — click a heading to open it. Calibrated is the number to read; lift shows how far it sits from what that selection normally does in this league. To compare selections across fixtures instead, use the Radar.

All markets

Every selection below comes from the same scoreline distribution, so they are mutually consistent rather than independently guessed. Calibrated is the model corrected by its own out-of-sample record; lift is how much more likely that is than the selection simply being true in this league anyway.

1X2 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Modena to win	55.8%	54.0%	42.7%	1.27×	1.85
Draw	26.2%	27.9%	32.0%	0.87×	3.59
Mantova to win	18.0%	19.3%	25.4%	0.76×	5.17

1X2 & GG/NG 6

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Modena & not both score	31.6%	29.7%	24.0%	1.24×	3.37
Modena & both teams score	24.2%	21.9%	18.8%	1.17×	4.57
Draw & both teams score	17.9%	17.9%	23.0%	0.78×	5.58
Mantova & both teams score	9.1%	8.4%	12.3%	0.68×	11.92
Mantova & not both score	8.9%	8.4%	13.3%	0.63×	11.92
Draw & not both score	8.3%	8.4%	9.1%	0.92×	11.93

1X2 & Over/Under 18

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Modena & over 1.5	45.2%	45.2%	31.7%	1.43×	2.21
Modena & under 3.5	37.3%	34.9%	32.0%	1.09×	2.87
Modena & over 2.5	34.5%	30.9%	24.3%	1.27×	3.24
Modena & under 2.5	21.3%	21.7%	18.5%	1.17×	4.62
Draw & under 2.5	20.8%	21.7%	23.8%	0.91×	4.62
Draw & under 3.5	20.8%	21.7%	23.8%	0.91×	4.62
Modena & over 3.5	18.5%	18.0%	10.8%	1.67×	5.56
Draw & over 1.5	17.9%	18.0%	23.0%	0.78×	5.56
Mantova & under 3.5	13.7%	12.9%	19.9%	0.65×	7.77
Mantova & over 1.5	13.1%	12.9%	18.8%	0.69×	7.77
Modena & under 1.5	10.6%	12.9%	11.1%	1.16×	7.77
Mantova & over 2.5	10.2%	12.9%	15.0%	0.86×	7.77
Draw & under 1.5	8.3%	7.9%	9.1%	0.86×	12.70
Mantova & under 2.5	7.7%	7.9%	10.5%	0.75×	12.70
Draw & over 2.5	5.4%	7.9%	8.4%	0.94×	12.70
Draw & over 3.5	5.4%	7.9%	8.4%	0.94×	12.70
Mantova & under 1.5	4.8%	4.8%	6.8%	0.71×	20.93
Mantova & over 3.5	4.2%	4.8%	5.6%	0.85×	20.93

1X2 1UP 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Modena (1UP)	68.9%	70.1%	—	—	1.43
Mantova (1UP)	35.6%	34.2%	—	—	2.93

1X2 2UP 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Modena (2UP)	55.8%	55.0%	—	—	1.82
Mantova (2UP)	18.0%	17.5%	—	—	5.72

2nd half 1X2 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Modena to win 2nd half	45.2%	45.3%	—	—	2.21
2nd half drawn	35.5%	36.0%	—	—	2.78
Mantova to win 2nd half	19.3%	19.1%	—	—	5.23

Asian handicap 8

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Mantova (+2.5)	85.3%	88.5%	93.2%	0.95×	1.13
Modena (+0.5)	82.0%	82.4%	74.6%	1.10×	1.21
Mantova (+1.5)	67.6%	68.7%	80.5%	0.85×	1.46
Modena (-0.5)	55.8%	57.0%	42.7%	1.34×	1.76
Mantova (+0.5)	44.2%	43.0%	57.3%	0.75×	2.33
Modena (-1.5)	32.4%	31.3%	19.5%	1.60×	3.20
Mantova (-0.5)	18.0%	17.6%	25.4%	0.69×	5.68
Modena (-2.5)	14.7%	11.5%	6.8%	1.70×	8.69

Away clean sheet 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Mantova to concede	82.8%	81.3%	77.7%	1.05×	1.23
Mantova clean sheet	17.2%	18.7%	22.3%	0.84×	5.35

Away clean sheet 1HT 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Mantova clean sheet in 1st half	46.9%	50.7%	—	—	1.97
Mantova to concede in 1st half	53.1%	49.3%	—	—	2.03

Away corners O/U 10

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Mantova under 6.5 corners	87.1%	85.2%	—	—	1.17
Mantova under 5.5 corners	78.2%	75.9%	—	—	1.32
Mantova over 2.5 corners	69.1%	67.5%	—	—	1.48
Mantova under 4.5 corners	65.4%	67.5%	—	—	1.48
Mantova over 3.5 corners	51.0%	53.1%	—	—	1.88
Mantova under 3.5 corners	49.0%	46.9%	—	—	2.13
Mantova over 4.5 corners	34.6%	32.5%	—	—	3.08
Mantova under 2.5 corners	30.9%	32.5%	—	—	3.08
Mantova over 5.5 corners	21.8%	24.1%	—	—	4.16
Mantova over 6.5 corners	12.9%	14.8%	—	—	6.75

Away goals O/U 8

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Mantova under 3.5 goals	98.6%	97.5%	98.2%	0.99×	1.03
Mantova under 2.5 goals	93.4%	92.3%	90.9%	1.02×	1.08
Mantova under 1.5 goals	76.6%	76.2%	69.3%	1.10×	1.31
Mantova over 0.5 goals	60.1%	62.9%	67.0%	0.94×	1.59
Mantova under 0.5 goals	39.9%	37.1%	33.0%	1.12×	2.70
Mantova over 1.5 goals	23.4%	23.8%	30.7%	0.78×	4.21
Mantova over 2.5 goals	6.6%	7.7%	9.1%	0.84×	13.05
Mantova over 3.5 goals	1.4%	2.5%	1.8%	1.40×	40.81

Away goals O/U 1HT 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Mantova under 1.5 in 1st half	94.7%	94.3%	—	—	1.06
Mantova under 0.5 in 1st half	69.2%	68.5%	—	—	1.46
Mantova over 0.5 in 1st half	30.8%	31.5%	—	—	3.17
Mantova over 1.5 in 1st half	5.3%	5.7%	—	—	17.42

Away no bet 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Modena (away no bet)	68.0%	66.4%	57.1%	1.16×	1.51
Draw (away no bet)	32.0%	33.6%	42.9%	0.78×	2.98

Away Odd/Even 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Mantova even goals	58.0%	56.9%	55.6%	1.02×	1.76
Mantova odd goals	42.0%	43.1%	44.4%	0.97×	2.32

Both halves O1.5 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Not both halves over 1.5	85.7%	87.6%	—	—	1.14
Both halves over 1.5 goals	14.3%	12.4%	—	—	8.04

Both halves U1.5 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Not both halves under 1.5	63.5%	58.1%	—	—	1.72
Both halves under 1.5 goals	36.5%	41.9%	—	—	2.39

Consecutive goals 6

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Either team to score 2+ in a row	56.7%	55.1%	—	—	1.81
Modena to score 2+ in a row	45.5%	45.7%	—	—	2.19
Either team to score 3+ in a row	22.2%	19.5%	—	—	5.12
Modena to score 3+ in a row	19.0%	16.4%	—	—	6.11
Mantova to score 2+ in a row	16.3%	16.3%	—	—	6.13
Mantova to score 3+ in a row	3.3%	2.6%	—	—	38.52

Corner handicap 12

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Modena corners (+3.5)	91.8%	89.6%	—	—	1.12
Modena corners (+2.5)	86.7%	84.5%	—	—	1.18
Modena corners (+1.5)	79.5%	74.9%	—	—	1.34
Mantova corners (+3.5)	72.7%	70.7%	—	—	1.41
Mantova corners (+2.5)	62.9%	61.9%	—	—	1.62
Mantova corners (+1.5)	51.8%	52.5%	—	—	1.91
Modena corners (-1.5)	48.2%	47.5%	—	—	2.10
Modena corners (-2.5)	37.1%	38.1%	—	—	2.63
Modena corners (-3.5)	27.3%	29.3%	—	—	3.42
Mantova corners (-1.5)	20.5%	25.1%	—	—	3.98
Mantova corners (-2.5)	13.3%	15.5%	—	—	6.45
Mantova corners (-3.5)	8.2%	10.4%	—	—	9.59

Corner range 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
0-8 corners	46.5%	41.7%	—	—	2.40
9-11 corners	29.2%	31.2%	—	—	3.20
12+ corners	24.3%	25.6%	—	—	3.90

Corners O/U 12

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Under 12.5 corners	82.5%	80.8%	—	—	1.24
Under 11.5 corners	75.7%	76.5%	—	—	1.31
Under 10.5 corners	67.2%	67.7%	—	—	1.48
Over 7.5 corners	64.7%	63.4%	—	—	1.58
Under 9.5 corners	57.3%	57.8%	—	—	1.73
Over 8.5 corners	53.5%	53.3%	—	—	1.88
Under 8.5 corners	46.5%	46.7%	—	—	2.14
Over 9.5 corners	42.7%	42.2%	—	—	2.37
Under 7.5 corners	35.3%	36.6%	—	—	2.73
Over 10.5 corners	32.8%	32.3%	—	—	3.10
Over 11.5 corners	24.3%	23.5%	—	—	4.26
Over 12.5 corners	17.5%	19.2%	—	—	5.20

Corners Odd/Even 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Odd number of corners	50.0%	50.2%	—	—	1.99
Even number of corners	50.0%	49.8%	—	—	2.01

Correct score 26

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
1-1	12.5%	11.5%	14.8%	0.78×	8.73
1-0	10.6%	11.5%	11.1%	1.03×	8.73
2-0	10.6%	11.5%	7.5%	1.53×	8.73
2-1	9.8%	7.4%	9.8%	0.76×	13.48
0-0	8.3%	7.4%	9.1%	0.81×	13.48
1-2	5.1%	7.4%	7.4%	1.00×	13.48
3-0	6.2%	7.4%	4.0%	1.85×	13.48
3-1	5.7%	7.4%	4.4%	1.69×	13.48
0-1	4.8%	1.7%	6.8%	0.25×	58.46
0-2	2.9%	1.7%	3.9%	0.44×	58.47
0-3	0.9%	1.7%	2.3%	0.76×	58.48
0-4	0.2%	1.7%	0.8%	2.28×	58.49
1-3	1.6%	1.7%	2.6%	0.65×	58.48
1-4	0.4%	1.7%	0.3%	6.83×	58.49
2-2	4.5%	1.7%	7.4%	0.23×	58.46
2-3	1.4%	1.7%	1.5%	1.14×	58.48
2-4	0.3%	1.7%	0.1%	13.66×	58.49
3-2	2.6%	1.7%	2.5%	0.68×	58.47
3-3	0.8%	1.7%	1.1%	1.52×	58.49
3-4	0.2%	1.7%	0.4%	4.55×	58.49
4-0	2.8%	1.7%	1.1%	1.52×	58.47
4-1	2.5%	1.7%	0.8%	2.28×	58.48
4-2	1.2%	1.7%	1.0%	1.71×	58.48
4-3	0.4%	1.7%	0.3%	6.83×	58.49
4-4	0.1%	1.7%	0.1%	13.66×	58.49
Any other score	3.6%	1.7%	2.1%	0.80×	58.47

DNB half time 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Modena leading at HT (DNB)	71.9%	71.5%	—	—	1.40
Mantova leading at HT (DNB)	28.1%	28.5%	—	—	3.51

Double chance 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Modena or draw (1X)	82.0%	80.7%	74.6%	1.08×	1.24
Modena or Mantova (12)	73.8%	72.1%	68.0%	1.06×	1.39
Mantova or draw (X2)	44.2%	46.0%	57.3%	0.80×	2.18

Double chance 1HT 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Modena or draw at HT	83.9%	84.5%	—	—	1.18
Mantova or draw at HT	58.8%	56.9%	—	—	1.76
Modena or Mantova at HT	57.4%	56.9%	—	—	1.76

Double chance 1UP 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Modena or draw (1UP)	82.0%	88.4%	—	—	1.13
Mantova or draw (1UP)	44.2%	52.8%	—	—	1.89

Double chance 2HT 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Modena or draw in 2nd half	80.7%	80.9%	—	—	1.24
Modena or Mantova in 2nd half	64.5%	64.0%	—	—	1.56
Mantova or draw in 2nd half	54.8%	54.7%	—	—	1.83

Draw either half 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
A half drawn	61.4%	61.5%	—	—	1.63
Neither half drawn	38.6%	38.5%	—	—	2.60

Draw no bet 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Modena (DNB)	75.6%	74.6%	62.7%	1.19×	1.34
Mantova (DNB)	24.4%	25.4%	37.3%	0.68×	3.93

First goal 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Modena to score first	60.3%	64.3%	—	—	1.56
Mantova to score first	31.4%	27.1%	—	—	3.69
No goal scored	8.3%	7.5%	—	—	13.25

GG/NG 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Both teams to score	51.2%	51.4%	53.8%	0.96×	1.95
Not both teams to score	48.8%	48.6%	46.2%	1.05×	2.06

GG/NG & Over/Under 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Both score & over 2.5	38.7%	38.5%	39.2%	0.98×	2.60
Not both score & under 2.5	37.3%	38.5%	37.9%	1.01×	2.60
Both score & under 2.5	12.5%	12.3%	14.8%	0.84×	8.11
Not both score & over 2.5	11.5%	12.3%	8.4%	1.47×	8.11

GG/NG 2+ 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Not both teams to score 2+	87.7%	85.6%	86.0%	1.00×	1.17
Both teams to score 2+	12.3%	14.4%	14.0%	1.03×	6.95

GG/NG 2nd half 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Not both to score in 2nd half	72.6%	74.1%	—	—	1.35
Both teams to score in 2nd half	27.4%	25.9%	—	—	3.86

GG/NG by half 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Neither half both score	60.4%	66.3%	—	—	1.51
Both score 2nd half only	23.0%	20.8%	—	—	4.80
Both score 1st half only	12.2%	10.7%	—	—	9.31
Both score in both halves	4.4%	5.0%	—	—	19.81

GG/NG half time 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Not both to score by HT	83.4%	82.4%	—	—	1.21
Both teams to score by HT	16.6%	17.6%	—	—	5.69

Goal in both halves 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
A goal in each half	54.0%	53.5%	—	—	1.87
A half without a goal	46.0%	46.5%	—	—	2.15

Goal range 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
2-3 goals	48.1%	47.4%	48.8%	0.97×	2.11
4-6 goals	26.2%	26.4%	23.3%	1.14×	3.78
0-1 goals	23.8%	22.8%	26.8%	0.85×	4.38
7+ goals	2.0%	1.8%	1.4%	1.33×	54.60

Goals away 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Mantova to score exactly 0	39.9%	36.0%	33.0%	1.09×	2.78
Mantova to score exactly 1	36.7%	36.0%	36.4%	0.99×	2.78
Mantova to score exactly 2	16.8%	19.6%	21.7%	0.90×	5.11
Mantova to score 3+	6.6%	8.4%	9.1%	0.92×	11.84

Goals home 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Modena to score exactly 1	30.3%	32.6%	35.9%	0.91×	3.06
Modena to score exactly 2	26.7%	26.5%	26.0%	1.02×	3.77
Modena to score 3+	25.9%	26.5%	16.0%	1.66×	3.77
Modena to score exactly 0	17.2%	18.9%	22.3%	0.85×	5.29

Half time 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Draw at HT	42.6%	43.1%	—	—	2.32
Modena leading at HT	41.2%	43.1%	—	—	2.32
Mantova leading at HT	16.1%	15.5%	—	—	6.47

Handicap 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Modena -1: 2	44.2%	42.8%	—	—	2.34
Modena -1: 1	32.4%	30.1%	—	—	3.33
Modena -1: X	23.4%	23.6%	—	—	4.24

Handicap 0:1 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Mantova (0:1)	44.2%	42.7%	57.3%	0.75×	2.34
Modena (0:1)	32.4%	30.0%	19.5%	1.54×	3.33
Draw (0:1)	23.4%	24.3%	23.3%	1.04×	4.12

Handicap 0:2 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Mantova (0:2)	67.6%	72.2%	80.5%	0.90×	1.39
Draw (0:2)	17.7%	15.3%	12.9%	1.19×	6.54
Modena (0:2)	14.7%	11.0%	6.8%	1.62×	9.11

Handicap 0:3 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Mantova (0:3)	85.3%	90.7%	93.2%	0.97×	1.10
Draw (0:3)	9.2%	5.8%	4.6%	1.26×	17.13
Modena (0:3)	5.5%	5.8%	2.3%	2.58×	17.19

Handicap 0:4 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Mantova (0:4)	94.5%	94.7%	97.7%	0.97×	1.06
Draw (0:4)	3.8%	1.2%	1.4%	0.87×	83.24
Modena (0:4)	1.7%	1.2%	1.0%	1.20×	83.48

Handicap 1:0 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Modena (1:0)	82.0%	81.4%	74.6%	1.09×	1.23
Draw (1:0)	11.5%	12.8%	15.6%	0.82×	7.81
Mantova (1:0)	6.5%	6.9%	9.9%	0.70×	14.46

Handicap 2:0 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Modena (2:0)	93.5%	93.9%	90.1%	1.04×	1.06
Draw (2:0)	4.8%	2.3%	6.5%	0.35×	44.06
Mantova (2:0)	1.6%	2.3%	3.5%	0.64×	44.27

Highest scoring half 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
2nd half highest scoring	46.1%	48.1%	—	—	2.08
Halves equal	27.4%	26.5%	—	—	3.77
1st half highest scoring	26.6%	26.5%	—	—	3.77

Home clean sheet 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Modena to concede	60.1%	63.4%	67.0%	0.95×	1.58
Modena clean sheet	39.9%	36.6%	33.0%	1.11×	2.73

Home clean sheet 1HT 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Modena clean sheet in 1st half	69.2%	68.8%	—	—	1.45
Modena to concede in 1st half	30.8%	31.2%	—	—	3.20

Home corners O/U 10

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Modena over 2.5 corners	84.1%	81.0%	—	—	1.24
Modena over 3.5 corners	71.1%	71.9%	—	—	1.39
Modena under 6.5 corners	70.0%	71.9%	—	—	1.39
Modena under 5.5 corners	57.8%	57.5%	—	—	1.74
Modena over 4.5 corners	56.4%	57.5%	—	—	1.74
Modena under 4.5 corners	43.6%	42.5%	—	—	2.35
Modena over 5.5 corners	42.3%	42.5%	—	—	2.35
Modena over 6.5 corners	30.0%	28.1%	—	—	3.56
Modena under 3.5 corners	28.9%	28.1%	—	—	3.56
Modena under 2.5 corners	15.9%	19.0%	—	—	5.25

Home goals O/U 8

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Modena under 3.5 goals	89.7%	87.3%	95.9%	0.91×	1.15
Modena over 0.5 goals	82.8%	82.1%	77.7%	1.06×	1.22
Modena under 2.5 goals	74.1%	74.2%	84.0%	0.88×	1.35
Modena over 1.5 goals	52.6%	53.2%	41.9%	1.27×	1.88
Modena under 1.5 goals	47.4%	46.8%	58.1%	0.81×	2.14
Modena over 2.5 goals	25.9%	25.8%	16.0%	1.61×	3.87
Modena under 0.5 goals	17.2%	17.9%	22.3%	0.80×	5.59
Modena over 3.5 goals	10.3%	12.7%	4.1%	3.08×	7.86

Home goals O/U 1HT 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Modena under 1.5 in 1st half	82.4%	84.2%	—	—	1.19
Modena under 0.5 in 1st half	46.9%	50.8%	—	—	1.97
Modena over 0.5 in 1st half	53.1%	49.2%	—	—	2.03
Modena over 1.5 in 1st half	17.6%	15.8%	—	—	6.35

Home no bet 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Draw (home no bet)	59.3%	56.7%	55.8%	1.02×	1.76
Mantova (home no bet)	40.7%	43.3%	44.2%	0.98×	2.31

Home Odd/Even 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Modena even goals	51.5%	50.6%	51.1%	0.99×	1.98
Modena odd goals	48.5%	49.4%	48.9%	1.01×	2.03

HT correct score 10

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
HT 0-0	32.7%	32.3%	—	—	3.09
HT 1-0	24.3%	24.1%	—	—	4.14
HT 0-1	11.7%	10.9%	—	—	9.16
HT 1-1	9.3%	7.1%	—	—	14.02
HT 2-0	9.3%	7.1%	—	—	14.02
Any other HT score	4.8%	2.3%	—	—	43.26
HT 2-1	3.4%	2.3%	—	—	43.36
HT 0-2	2.2%	2.3%	—	—	43.45
HT 1-2	1.7%	2.3%	—	—	43.49
HT 2-2	0.6%	2.3%	—	—	43.56

HT/FT 9

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Modena at HT / Modena at FT	34.8%	33.1%	—	—	3.03
Draw at HT / Modena at FT	18.4%	16.8%	—	—	5.96
Draw at HT / Draw at FT	16.7%	16.8%	—	—	5.97
Mantova at HT / Mantova at FT	9.1%	6.0%	—	—	16.62
Draw at HT / Mantova at FT	7.5%	6.0%	—	—	16.66
Modena at HT / Draw at FT	5.1%	6.0%	—	—	16.74
Mantova at HT / Draw at FT	4.4%	3.5%	—	—	28.79
Mantova at HT / Modena at FT	2.6%	3.5%	—	—	28.86
Modena at HT / Mantova at FT	1.4%	3.5%	—	—	28.91

Last goal 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Modena to score last	60.5%	61.9%	—	—	1.62
Mantova to score last	31.2%	32.8%	—	—	3.05
No goal scored	8.3%	7.5%	—	—	13.25

Lead at any time 9

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Either team to lead by 1 at any time	91.7%	92.6%	—	—	1.08
Modena to lead by 1 at any time	68.9%	69.6%	—	—	1.44
Either team to lead by 2 at any time	48.7%	44.1%	—	—	2.27
Modena to lead by 2 at any time	38.4%	34.9%	—	—	2.87
Mantova to lead by 1 at any time	35.6%	34.8%	—	—	2.88
Either team to lead by 3 at any time	19.5%	15.0%	—	—	6.69
Modena to lead by 3 at any time	17.1%	14.9%	—	—	6.71
Mantova to lead by 2 at any time	10.5%	10.4%	—	—	9.59
Mantova to lead by 3 at any time	2.4%	1.6%	—	—	61.90

Most corners 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Modena most corners	59.6%	55.5%	—	—	1.80
Mantova most corners	29.7%	31.0%	—	—	3.23
Corners level	10.7%	10.4%	—	—	9.61

Multi goal 15

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
1-5 goals	86.2%	87.4%	87.2%	1.00×	1.14
1-4 goals	78.3%	78.6%	82.1%	0.96×	1.27
2-6 goals	74.3%	72.4%	72.0%	1.01×	1.38
2-5 goals	70.7%	72.4%	69.6%	1.04×	1.38
1-3 goals	63.5%	63.4%	66.5%	0.95×	1.58
2-4 goals	62.8%	63.4%	64.5%	0.98×	1.58
2-3 goals	48.1%	48.7%	48.8%	1.00×	2.06
3-6 goals	48.2%	48.7%	46.2%	1.05×	2.06
3-5 goals	44.7%	43.6%	43.8%	0.99×	2.30
1-2 goals	41.5%	43.6%	43.6%	1.00×	2.30
3-4 goals	36.7%	39.1%	38.7%	1.01×	2.55
4-6 goals	26.2%	30.2%	23.3%	1.30×	3.31
4-5 goals	22.7%	24.5%	20.9%	1.17×	4.09
5-6 goals	11.4%	14.9%	7.6%	1.95×	6.73
7+ goals	2.0%	2.5%	1.4%	1.85×	39.24

Never down 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Modena never behind	56.1%	62.5%	—	—	1.60
Mantova never behind	22.8%	24.4%	—	—	4.10

Odd/Even 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Odd number of goals	46.9%	50.8%	46.7%	1.09×	1.97
Even number of goals	53.1%	49.2%	53.3%	0.92×	2.03

Odd/Even 1HT 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Even goals in 1st half	55.8%	57.4%	—	—	1.74
Odd goals in 1st half	44.2%	42.6%	—	—	2.35

Odd/Even 2HT 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Even goals in 2nd half	53.2%	52.1%	—	—	1.92
Odd goals in 2nd half	46.8%	47.9%	—	—	2.09

Over/Under 12

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Under 5.5 goals	94.5%	92.3%	96.2%	0.96×	1.08
Over 0.5 goals	91.7%	92.3%	90.9%	1.02×	1.08
Under 4.5 goals	86.6%	87.6%	91.1%	0.96×	1.14
Over 1.5 goals	76.2%	77.3%	73.2%	1.06×	1.29
Under 3.5 goals	71.8%	72.5%	75.5%	0.96×	1.38
Over 2.5 goals	50.2%	52.5%	47.4%	1.11×	1.91
Under 2.5 goals	49.8%	47.5%	52.6%	0.90×	2.10
Over 3.5 goals	28.2%	27.5%	24.5%	1.12×	3.64
Under 1.5 goals	23.8%	22.7%	26.8%	0.85×	4.41
Over 4.5 goals	13.4%	12.4%	8.9%	1.39×	8.09
Under 0.5 goals	8.3%	7.7%	9.1%	0.85×	12.92
Over 5.5 goals	5.5%	7.7%	3.8%	2.06×	12.93

Over/Under (whole line) 10

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Under 6 (void on exactly 6)	97.9%	97.2%	98.6%	0.99×	1.03
Under 5 (void on exactly 5)	94.0%	92.5%	96.0%	0.96×	1.08
Under 4 (void on exactly 4)	84.3%	81.1%	89.5%	0.91×	1.23
Over 2 (void on exactly 2)	67.9%	67.4%	63.9%	1.05×	1.48
Under 3 (void on exactly 3)	63.9%	62.1%	68.2%	0.91×	1.61
Over 3 (void on exactly 3)	36.1%	37.9%	31.8%	1.19×	2.64
Under 2 (void on exactly 2)	32.1%	32.6%	36.1%	0.90×	3.07
Over 4 (void on exactly 4)	15.7%	18.9%	10.5%	1.80×	5.28
Over 5 (void on exactly 5)	6.0%	7.5%	4.0%	1.90×	13.28
Over 6 (void on exactly 6)	2.1%	2.8%	1.4%	1.96×	36.16

Over/Under 1HT 6

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Under 2.5 in 1st half	89.5%	89.1%	—	—	1.12
Under 1.5 in 1st half	68.7%	69.0%	—	—	1.45
Over 0.5 in 1st half	67.3%	69.0%	—	—	1.45
Under 0.5 in 1st half	32.7%	31.0%	—	—	3.22
Over 1.5 in 1st half	31.3%	31.0%	—	—	3.23
Over 2.5 in 1st half	10.5%	10.9%	—	—	9.13

Over/Under 2HT 6

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Under 2.5 in 2nd half	79.5%	79.8%	—	—	1.25
Over 0.5 in 2nd half	78.4%	79.8%	—	—	1.25
Under 1.5 in 2nd half	53.4%	53.2%	—	—	1.88
Over 1.5 in 2nd half	46.6%	46.8%	—	—	2.14
Under 0.5 in 2nd half	21.6%	20.2%	—	—	4.94
Over 2.5 in 2nd half	20.5%	20.2%	—	—	4.95

Score both halves 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Mantova not to score in both halves	87.0%	85.8%	—	—	1.17
Modena not to score in both halves	66.3%	70.4%	—	—	1.42
Modena to score in both halves	33.7%	29.6%	—	—	3.38
Mantova to score in both halves	13.0%	14.2%	—	—	7.02

Teams to score 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Both teams score	51.2%	53.9%	53.8%	1.00×	1.86
Only Modena scores	31.6%	33.3%	24.0%	1.39×	3.00
Only Mantova scores	8.9%	7.2%	13.3%	0.54×	13.90
Neither team scores	8.3%	7.2%	9.1%	0.79×	13.90

Total goals 7

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Exactly 2 goals	26.1%	25.0%	25.9%	0.96×	4.01
Exactly 3 goals	22.0%	22.6%	23.0%	0.98×	4.42
Exactly 1 goals	15.5%	17.4%	17.8%	0.98×	5.74
Exactly 4 goals	14.7%	12.1%	15.8%	0.77×	8.27
Exactly 0 goals	8.3%	7.6%	9.1%	0.84×	13.08
Exactly 5 goals	7.9%	7.6%	5.3%	1.45×	13.08
6 or more goals	5.5%	7.6%	3.8%	2.03×	13.09

Total goals 2nd half 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
2+ goals in 2nd half	46.6%	44.9%	—	—	2.23
1 goal in 2nd half	31.8%	33.4%	—	—	2.99
No goals in 2nd half	21.6%	23.1%	—	—	4.34

Win both halves 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Mantova not to win both halves	96.8%	97.2%	—	—	1.03
Modena not to win both halves	81.1%	84.1%	—	—	1.19
Modena to win both halves	18.9%	15.9%	—	—	6.29
Mantova to win both halves	3.2%	2.8%	—	—	35.88

Win either half 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Mantova to win neither half	67.8%	67.9%	—	—	1.47
Modena to win either half	67.5%	67.9%	—	—	1.47
Modena to win neither half	32.5%	32.1%	—	—	3.11
Mantova to win either half	32.2%	32.1%	—	—	3.12

Win to nil 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Mantova not to win to nil	91.1%	92.0%	86.7%	1.06×	1.09
Modena not to win to nil	68.4%	69.7%	76.0%	0.92×	1.44
Modena to win to nil	31.6%	30.3%	24.0%	1.26×	3.30
Mantova to win to nil	8.9%	8.0%	13.3%	0.60×	12.54

Winning margin 7

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Draw	26.2%	27.8%	32.0%	0.87×	3.59
Modena by 1	23.4%	24.2%	23.3%	1.04×	4.14
Modena by 2	17.7%	16.9%	12.9%	1.31×	5.91
Modena by 3+	14.7%	11.8%	6.8%	1.75×	8.47
Mantova by 1	11.5%	11.8%	15.6%	0.75×	8.48
Mantova by 2	4.8%	2.7%	6.5%	0.42×	36.93
Mantova by 3+	1.6%	2.7%	3.5%	0.77×	37.03